US POWER AND GAS MODEL


1
2		U.S. Power, Natural Gas, EV Penetration & Gasoline Demand Model														Jan-25-25
3
4
5									2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
6		U.S. Power Market Statistics						U.S. Annual Power Capacity (MW)							(MW)	Capacity
7		Instructions:			Inflation Reduction Act			Case Inputs	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
8					PTC & ITC Spend Case			As Written	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
9								Base	100%	100%	90%	90%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
10					Case Selected			Downside	95%	90%	85%	75%	75%	75%	70%	70%	70%
11					Base			Upside	100%	110%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%
12									100%	100%	90%	90%	85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
13									2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
14								$/MWh PTC + ITC	10.9	16.7	21.1	19.7	21.5	22.4	25.7	20.5	20.0
15
16									2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
17								$/MWh PTC + ITC	22.0	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	20.5	20.5	19.8	19.8
18
19		Assumptions
20
21		EV			LNG				Power				Maximum Annual Gas Reduction Versus 2021
22		kWh per Mile	0.31		LNG Capacity Utilization		90.0%		Coal Case		Base		2022		90.0%
23		% PHEV Miles Charged	65.0%		LNG Growth		10.0%		Minimum as % 2022		30.0%		2023		80%
24									Max single year drop		15.0%		2024		75%
25		Gasoline fleet annual mpg efficiency gain	0.50%		Pipeline, lease gross up		9.1%		Min Coal/Gas Utilization		25.0%		2025		65%
26		Gasoline step down % total	0.25%										2026		50%
27		Min gasoline as % gasoline/diesel	65.00%						Heat rate reduction		25		2027		38%
28		Renewable							Nuclear Utilization Rate		89.5%		2028		25%
29		2024+ Geothermal Capacity Growth	7.5%						Direct Use		5.5%		2029		25%
30		Geothermal Capacity Factor	70.0%										2030		25%
31		2024+ Battery Capacity Growth	15.0%										2031		25%
32		Distributed Solar Cf annual improvement	0.1
33
34			2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
35		Distributed Solar Capacity (MW)	16,148	19,547	23,214	27,585	32,972	36,506	45,388	56,433	64,554	70,635	77,291	80,733	84,330	88,089	92,019
36		Growth	27.5%	23.1%	18.3%	18.8%	18.1%	21.2%	25%	25%	15%	10%	10%	5%	5%	5%	5%
37
38		EV Growth Year/Year
39		Electric (EV)	34.5%	51.8%	36.8%	30.0%	42.7%	47.8%	38.4%	37.8%	36.6%	34.4%	32.2%	29.9%	27.7%	25.6%	23.4%
40		Plug-In Hybrid Electric (PHEV)	35.7%	33.9%	16.3%	10.8%	32.4%	20.2%	34.8%	31.8%	29.0%	25.8%	22.9%	20.2%	17.6%	15.1%	12.8%
41		Registrations	35.1%	43.3%	27.7%	22.2%	38.9%	38.1%	35.0%	32.5%	30.0%	25.0%	22.5%	20.0%	17.5%	15.0%	12.5%
42
43		US Total Fleet Growth					1.00%		1,154,210			ANNUAL EV REGISTRATIONS AND % LDV					5,553,406
44		Fleet 1yr CAGR					1.8%		6.2%								34.3%
45		Fleet 3yr CAGR					1.4%
46		Fleet 5yr CAGR					1.6%
47
48		Electricity Demand Growth	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
49
50		Residential							0.55%
51		3yr CAGR	-0.7%	1.5%	0.7%	2.0%	0.2%	1.0%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
52		5yr CAGR	0.1%	1.0%	0.5%	0.8%	0.9%	1.5%	0.3%	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
53		10yr CAGR	-0.1%	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%
54
55		Commercial							0.02%
56		3yr CAGR	0.0%	0.5%	-0.2%	-1.6%	-1.4%	-0.9%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
57		5yr CAGR	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	-1.1%	-0.6%	-0.4%	-0.8%	-0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
58		10yr CAGR	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.4%	-0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
59
60		Industrial							1.40%
61		3yr CAGR	-0.4%	0.5%	0.9%	-0.9%	-0.5%	-0.1%	1.9%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%
62		5yr CAGR	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	-0.6%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%
63		10yr CAGR	-0.4%	-0.1%	0.9%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%	0.8%	0.9%	0.8%	1.0%	1.5%	1.4%
64
65		U.S. Natural Gas Demand	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
66
67		Residential							-0.81%
68		3yr CAGR	-4.6%	2.7%	5.0%	1.9%	-1.9%	-2.3%	-0.3%	-0.9%	-0.8%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.9%	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.7%
69		5yr CAGR	1.3%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	-1.5%	-1.8%	-0.5%	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.8%
70		10yr CAGR	-0.7%	0.2%	0.5%	-0.2%	0.0%	1.2%	-0.6%	-1.0%	-0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	-1.2%	-1.3%	-0.6%	-0.8%
71
72		Commercial							-0.05%
73		3yr CAGR	-3.0%	10.65	10.66	10.58	-2.1%	-2.1%	1.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
74		5yr CAGR	1.9%	6.91	6.80	6.66	1.2%	0.8%	-1.3%	-1.3%	0.8%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
75		10yr CAGR	0.5%	10.52	10.52	10.57	0.4%	1.3%	0.0%	-0.5%	0.3%	0.6%	0.4%	-0.7%	-0.7%	0.3%	-0.1%
76
77		Industrial							0.69%
78		3yr CAGR	1.3%	0.6%	1.2%	0.7%	-0.5%	-0.3%	0.9%	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%
79		5yr CAGR	2.0%	1.2%	0.8%	0.8%	1.5%	1.0%	-0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
80		10yr CAGR	1.8%	1.4%	1.2%	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.3%	1.1%	0.8%	0.3%	0.4%	0.8%	0.7%
81
82
83		Generation (TWhrs)	2022		2031
84		Total	4,143		4,475		8% ▲
85		Fossil Fuel	2,395		1,856		-22% ▼
86		Renewable	893		1,758		97% ▲
87		Renewable + Nuclear	1,685		2,556		52% ▲
88
89		Wind	398		725		82% ▲
90		Utility-Scale Solar	140		553		296% ▲
91		Distributed Solar	59		157		164% ▲
92		Hydroelectric	279		279		0% ▬
93		Geothermal	17		44		156% ▲
94
95		Nuclear	792		798		1% ▲
96
97		Natural Gas	1,541		1,600		4% ▲
98		Coal	854		256		-70% ▼
99
100		Capacity (MW)	2022		2031
101		Total	1,310,964		1,652,987		26% ▲
102		Fossil Fuel	791,987		702,551		-11% ▼
103		Renewable	374,988		797,421		113% ▲	U.S. Annual Power Capacity (Percent of Total)
104		Renewable + Nuclear	474,136		899,260		90% ▲	U.S. Annual Power Capacity (Percent of Total)
105
106		Wind	145,006		254,723		76% ▲
107		Utility-Scale Solar	79,136		284,330		259% ▲
108		Distributed Solar	36,506		92,019		152% ▲
109		Hydroelectric	99,518		99,840		0% ▲
110		Geothermal	3,959		7,127		80% ▲
111		Battery	10,864		59,383		447% ▲
112
113		Nuclear	99,149		101,839		3% ▲
114
115		Natural Gas	572,252		585,600		2% ▲
116		Coal	219,735		116,951		-47% ▼
117
118		Electric Vehicles	2022		2031
119		Registered Vehicles	3,096,170		31,732,745		925% ▲
120		EV Registrations	854,970		5,553,406		550% ▲
121		% US Fleet	1.09%		10.23%		837% ▲
122		TWHrs EV Demand	9.99		106.82		970% ▲
123		% US Power Generation	0.24%		2.39%		890% ▲
124
125
126		U.S. Power Generation Stack
127		TWhrs	2022					2026						2031
128
129		Coal	854					446						256
130		Natural Gas	1,541					1,646						1,600
131		Nuclear	792					795						798
132		Hydroelectric	279					279						279
133		Utility-Scale Solar	140					316						553
134		Distributed Solar	59					117						157
135		Wind	398					575						725
136		Geothermal	17					30						44
137		Other	63					63						63
138
139			4,143					4,267						4,475
140
141		U.S. Power Capacity Stack
142		1,310,964 MW							1,652,987 MW
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164		Natural Gas
165
166		TWhrs Natural Gas Power By Year
167		1,541				1,541	1,646						1,541	1,600
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179		Bcf/day Natural Gas Power Demand
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188		Natural Gas Power Demand	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
189
190		Bcf/d	25.4	29.0	30.9	31.9	30.9	30.1	30.3	31.2	32.7	31.7	30.7	30.2	31.0	30.6	30.3
191
192		% Total Gas Consumption	33.1%	33.7%	34.3%	35.4%	33.2%	32.3%	31.7%	31.7%	32.0%	30.8%	29.6%	28.7%	28.6%	27.7%	26.8%
193			32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7	32.7
194		1% ▲
195
196
197		2031 vs 2022
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205		2031 Estimated U.S. Generation By Major Fuel Types
206
207
208			2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
209
210		Wind (TWhr)	254	273	296	338	378	398	453	487	493	575	645	693	697	716	725
211
212		% Total	6.3%	6.5%	7.2%	8.4%	9.2%	9.6%	10.9%	11.6%	11.6%	13.5%	15.0%	16.0%	15.9%	16.2%	16.2%
213			725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725	725
214		82% ▲
215
216
217		2031 vs 2022
218
219
220		Utility-Scale Solar (TWhr)	53	64	72	89	115	140	199	229	251	316	383	438	470	514	553
221
222		% Total	1.3%	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	2.8%	3.4%	4.8%	5.5%	5.9%	7.4%	8.9%	10.1%	10.7%	11.6%	12.4%
223			553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553	553
224		296% ▲
225
226
227		2031 vs 2022
228
229
230		Distributed Solar (TWhr)	24	30	35	42	49	59	74	93	107	117	129	136	142	150	157
231
232		% Total	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.8%	2.2%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.1%	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%
233			157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157	157
234		164% ▲
235
236
237		2031 vs 2022
238
239
240		Nuclear (TWhr)	805	807	809	790	778	792	795	795	795	795	795	795	795	798	798
241
242		% Total	7.4%	7.0%	7.0%	7.1%	6.3%	6.7%	6.7%	6.6%	6.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%
243			809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809
244		1% ▲
245
246
247		2031 vs 2022
248
249
250		Hydroelectric (TWhr)	300	293	288	285	260	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279
251
252		% Total	7.4%	7.0%	7.0%	7.1%	6.3%	6.7%	6.7%	6.6%	6.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%
253			300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300	300
254		0% ▬
255
256
257		2031 vs 2022
258
259
260		Natural Gas (TWhr)	1,298	1,472	1,589	1,627	1,575	1,541	1,559	1,612	1,693	1,646	1,598	1,582	1,626	1,612	1,600
261
262		% Total	32.2%	35.2%	38.5%	40.6%	38.3%	37.2%	37.4%	38.4%	40.0%	38.6%	37.1%	36.4%	37.1%	36.4%	35.8%
263			1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693	1,693
264		4% ▲
265
266
267		2031 vs 2022
268
269
270
271		Coal (TWhr)	1,206	1,149	965	773	899	854	726	617	524	446	379	322	274	256	256
272
273		% Total	29.9%	27.5%	23.4%	19.3%	21.8%	20.6%	17.4%	14.7%	12.4%	10.4%	8.8%	7.4%	6.2%	5.8%	5.7%
274			1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206
275		-70% ▼
276
277
278		2031 vs 2022
279
280
281		Note: charts show annual trends sized relative to maximum value of each data set
282
283
284		U.S. Low/No-Carbon Energy vs Fossil Fuels (% of Total)
285
286		% Green
287	2017	2017: 36.0%															36.0%	64.0%
288	2018	2018: 35.4%															35.4%	64.6%
289	2019	2019: 36.7%															36.7%	63.3%
290	2020	2020: 38.9%															38.9%	61.1%
291	2021	2021: 38.8%															38.8%	61.2%
292	2022	2022: 40.7%															40.7%	59.3%
293	2023	2023: 43.7%															43.7%	56.3%
294	2024	2024: 45.5%															45.5%	54.5%
295	2025	2025: 46.1%															46.1%	53.9%
296	2026	2026: 49.5%															49.5%	50.5%
297	2027	2027: 52.6%															52.6%	47.4%
298	2028	2028: 54.7%															54.7%	45.3%
299	2029	2029: 55.2%															55.2%	44.8%
300	2030	2030: 56.4%															56.4%	43.6%
301	2031	2031: 57.1%															57.1%	42.9%
302
303
304		EV Penetration
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349		U.S. Natural Gas Demand
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377		LNG
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406		Emissions
407
408		Coal CO2-equivalent			MM Mt
409			1,263		CO2e
410			2016	1,263,369,506	1,263
411		-70% ▼	2017	1,223,630,450	1,224
412			2018	1,168,983,618	1,169
413			2019	986,128,383	986
414		2031 vs 2022	2020	800,215,969	800
415			2021	921,715,852	922
416			2022	873,205,850	873
417			2023	741,237,201	741
418			2024	629,212,015	629
419			2025	534,116,548	534
420			2026	453,392,450	453
421			2027	384,867,960	385
422			2028	326,699,486	327
423			2029	277,322,026	277
424			2030	259,172,753	259
425			2031	258,824,127	259
426
427		Natural Gas CO2-equivalent			MM Mt
428			684		CO2e
429			2016	565,233,376	565
430		1% ▲	2017	531,304,216	531
431			2018	606,465,070	606
432			2019	645,638,421	646
433		2031 vs 2022	2020	658,298,529	658
434			2021	640,539,412	641
435			2022	628,409,399	628
436			2023	633,500,856	634
437			2024	652,976,946	653
438			2025	683,679,060	684
439			2026	662,209,695	662
440			2027	640,915,989	641
441			2028	632,213,116	632
442			2029	647,849,721	648
443			2030	639,840,926	640
444			2031	633,022,812	633


1				2006-01-01	2007-01-01	2008-01-01	2009-01-01	2010-01-01	2011-01-01	2012-01-01	2013-01-01	2014-01-01	2015-01-01	2016-01-01	2017-01-01	2018-01-01	2019-01-01	2020-01-01	2021-01-01
2		United States Power Stack Build-Up		2006-12-01	2007-12-01	2008-12-01	2009-12-01	2010-12-01	2011-12-01	2012-12-01	2013-12-01	2014-12-01	2015-12-01	2016-12-01	2017-12-01	2018-12-01	2019-12-01	2020-12-01	2021-12-01	2021-12-02	2021-12-03	2021-12-04	2021-12-05	2021-12-06	2021-12-07	2021-12-08	2021-12-09	2021-12-10	2021-12-11
3
4		US GENERATION
5		% Total Generation		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
6		Coal		49.0%	48.5%	48.2%	44.4%	44.8%	42.3%	37.4%	38.9%	38.6%	33.2%	30.4%	29.9%	27.5%	23.4%	19.3%	21.8%	20.6%	17.4%	14.7%	12.4%	10.4%	8.8%	7.4%	6.2%	5.8%	5.7%
7		Natural Gas		20.1%	21.6%	21.4%	23.3%	23.9%	24.7%	30.3%	27.7%	27.5%	32.7%	33.8%	32.2%	35.2%	38.5%	40.6%	38.3%	37.2%	37.4%	38.4%	40.0%	38.6%	37.1%	36.4%	37.1%	36.4%	35.8%
8		Nuclear		19.4%	19.4%	19.6%	20.2%	19.6%	19.3%	19.0%	19.4%	19.5%	19.5%	19.8%	19.9%	19.3%	19.6%	19.7%	18.9%	19.1%	19.1%	18.9%	18.8%	18.6%	18.5%	18.3%	18.1%	18.0%	17.8%
9		Hydroelectric		7.1%	6.0%	6.2%	6.9%	6.3%	7.8%	6.8%	6.6%	6.3%	6.1%	6.6%	7.4%	7.0%	7.0%	7.1%	6.3%	6.7%	6.7%	6.6%	6.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%
10		Utility-Scale Solar		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	0.9%	1.3%	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	2.8%	3.4%	4.8%	5.5%	5.9%	7.4%	8.9%	10.1%	10.7%	11.6%	12.4%
11		Distributed Solar		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.8%	2.2%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.1%	3.2%	3.4%	3.5%
12		Wind		0.7%	0.8%	1.3%	1.9%	2.3%	2.9%	3.5%	4.1%	4.4%	4.7%	5.6%	6.3%	6.5%	7.2%	8.4%	9.2%	9.6%	10.9%	11.6%	11.6%	13.5%	15.0%	16.0%	15.9%	16.2%	16.2%
13		Geothermal		0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	1.0%
14		Other		3.4%	3.4%	2.9%	2.8%	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%	2.5%	2.4%	2.2%	2.0%	1.9%	1.5%	1.2%	1.1%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%	1.4%
15		Total		100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
16
64	30.0%												-0.1449773361	-0.08373979103	-0.02688408552	-0.04672938208	-0.1605328923	-0.1985207132	0.1619948008	-0.05	-0.2485207132	1,115	1,158	1,318	1,468	1,581	1,625	1,699	1,758
65	256.1233797	Generation (TWhrs)		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
66		Coal		1,991	2,016	1,986	1,756	1,847	1,733	1,514	1,581	1,582	1,352	1,239	1,206	1,149	965	773	899	854	726	617	524	446	379	322	274	256	256
67		Natural Gas		816	897	883	921	988	1,014	1,226	1,125	1,127	1,335	1,379	1,298	1,472	1,589	1,627	1,575	1,541	1,559	1,612	1,693	1,646	1,598	1,582	1,626	1,612	1,600
68		Nuclear		787	806	806	799	807	790	769	789	797	797	806	805	807	809	790	778	792	795	795	795	795	795	795	795	798	798
69		Hydroelectric		289	248	255	273	260	319	276	269	259	249	268	300	293	288	285	260	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279	279
70		Utility-Scale Solar		1	1	1	1	1	2	4	9	18	25	36	53	64	72	89	115	140	199	229	251	316	383	438	470	514	553
71		Distributed Solar										11	14	19	24	30	35	42	49	59	74	93	107	117	129	136	142	150	157
72		Wind		27	34	55	74	95	120	141	168	182	191	227	254	273	296	338	378	398	453	487	493	575	645	693	697	716	725
73		Geothermal		15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	15	16	16	17	25	26	28	30	33	35	38	41	44
74		Other		140	140	118	111	112	106	102	110	102	100	88	79	78	62	50	45	63	63	63	63	63	63	63	63	63	63
75		Total		4,065	4,157	4,119	3,950	4,125	4,100	4,048	4,066	4,094	4,079	4,078	4,035	4,181	4,131	4,010	4,116	4,143	4,171	4,201	4,233	4,267	4,303	4,342	4,383	4,428	4,475
76
77		US GENERATION DEMAND
78		TWhrs Demand		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
79		Residential		1,352	1,392	1,381	1,365	1,446	1,423	1,375	1,395	1,407	1,404	1,411	1,379	1,469	1,440	1,465	1,477	1,485	1,493	1,501	1,509	1,517	1,526	1,534	1,542	1,551	1,559
80		Commercial		1,300	1,336	1,336	1,307	1,330	1,328	1,327	1,337	1,352	1,361	1,367	1,353	1,382	1,361	1,287	1,325	1,325	1,325	1,325	1,326	1,326	1,326	1,326	1,326	1,327	1,327
81		Industrial		1,011	1,028	1,010	917	971	991	986	985	998	987	977	984	1,001	1,002	959	987	1,001	1,015	1,029	1,043	1,058	1,073	1,088	1,103	1,118	1,134
82		Transportation		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	4	5	7	10	14	19	25	34	44	56	71	88	107
83		Total		3,663	3,756	3,726	3,589	3,747	3,742	3,687	3,717	3,757	3,751	3,757	3,718	3,855	3,808	3,716	3,795	3,820	3,846	3,874	3,903	3,934	3,968	4,004	4,042	4,083	4,127
84		Direct Use	5.5%	201	207	205	197	206	206	203	204	207	206	207	205	212	209	204	209	210	212	213	215	216	218	220	222	225	227
85		Total Electricity Use		3,864	3,963	3,931	3,786	3,953	3,948	3,890	3,922	3,964	3,958	3,963	3,923	4,067	4,017	3,920	4,004	4,030	4,058	4,087	4,118	4,151	4,186	4,224	4,265	4,308	4,354
86		Total % Generation		90.1%	90.4%	90.5%	90.9%	90.8%	91.3%	91.1%	91.4%	91.8%	92.0%	92.1%	92.1%	92.2%	92.2%	92.7%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%	92.2%
87		Total Electricity Use % Generation		95.1%	95.3%	95.4%	95.9%	95.8%	96.3%	96.1%	96.5%	96.8%	97.0%	97.2%	97.2%	97.3%	97.3%	97.8%	97.3%	4,143	4,171	4,201	4,233	4,267	4,303	4,342	4,383	4,428	4,475
88
117
118		U.S. POWER PRICES & CUSTOMERS
119				2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
120		Residential		10.37	10.64	11.25	11.51	11.55	11.72	11.87	12.12	12.53	12.65	12.54	12.88	12.87	13.01	13.16	13.73
121		Commercial		9.42	9.62	10.22	10.14	10.16	10.21	10.07	10.24	10.73	10.62	10.41	10.64	10.65	10.66	10.58	11.25
122		Industrial		6.15	6.39	6.95	6.83	6.76	6.81	6.66	6.88	7.09	6.90	6.75	6.87	6.91	6.80	6.66	7.26
123		Total		8.87	9.11	9.71	9.81	9.82	9.88	9.83	10.06	10.44	10.40	10.26	10.47	10.52	10.52	10.57	11.16	11.26	11.36	11.46	11.56	11.66	11.76	11.87	11.97	12.08	12.19
124																				Compounded at 3yr Average Below
145		EV Power Costs ($Millions), uses total elec price												180	246	358	461	527	791	1,124	1,560	2,148	2,926	3,916	5,151	6,661	8,468	10,587	13,018
146		Electric Miles (Billions)												5.7	7.6	11.0	14.1	16.1	22.9	32.2	44.3	60.5	81.6	108.3	141.2	181.0	228.1	282.7	344.6
147		Cts/Mile												3.18	3.24	3.26	3.26	3.28	3.46	3.49	3.52	3.55	3.58	3.62	3.65	3.68	3.71	3.74	3.78
148
149		Total Power Costs ($Billios)		324.8	342.3	362.0	352.3	367.8	369.8	362.4	373.8	392.1	390.2	385.3	389.1	405.4	400.6	392.7	423.5	430.0	436.8	443.8	451.2	458.8	466.8	475.2	484.0	493.3	502.9
150		1yr CAGR			5.4%	5.8%	-2.7%	4.4%	0.5%	-2.0%	3.1%	4.9%	-0.5%	-1.3%	1.0%	4.2%	-1.2%	-2.0%	7.8%	1.6%	1.6%	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
151		EV as % Total												0.05%	0.06%	0.09%	0.12%	0.13%	0.19%	0.26%	0.36%	0.48%	0.65%	0.85%	1.10%	1.40%	1.75%	2.15%	2.59%
152
153		Customers
154		Residential				125,037,870	125,208,777	125,717,767	126,143,072	126,832,252	127,776,941	128,680,294	129,811,667	131,068,719	132,579,661	133,893,220	135,249,595	136,681,866	137,865,211
155		Commercial				17,582,277	17,562,150	17,674,167	17,637,928	17,728,903	17,679,466	17,853,836	17,985,582	18,148,290	18,359,330	18,605,300	18,694,187	18,848,677	19,029,444
156		Industrial				774,817	757,497	747,691	727,889	732,344	831,734	839,154	835,527	838,099	840,310	840,270	954,176	992,294	1,021,120
157		Total				143,394,965	143,528,423	144,139,624	144,508,889	145,293,500	146,288,141	147,373,283	148,632,777	150,055,108	151,779,300	153,338,789	154,897,958	156,522,837	157,915,775
173
174		Average Monthly Residential Power Bill				$103.53	$104.53	$110.67	$110.15	$107.17	$110.25	$114.16	$114.04	$112.52	$111.63	$117.67	$115.48	$117.49	$122.57
175
176		US CAPACITY
177		% Total Capacity		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
178		Coal		29.1%	28.9%	28.5%	28.2%	28.2%	28.0%	27.0%	26.7%	25.9%	24.6%	23.6%	22.8%	21.4%	20.1%	18.9%	17.9%	16.8%	15.9%	15.4%	15.1%	13.4%	11.1%	9.3%	7.9%	7.2%	7.1%
179		Natural Gas		44.2%	44.2%	44.2%	44.0%	44.0%	44.1%	44.1%	44.4%	44.2%	44.4%	44.1%	44.0%	44.8%	44.9%	44.5%	43.8%	43.2%	41.5%	40.3%	39.9%	38.6%	37.6%	37.0%	36.9%	36.2%	35.4%
180		Nuclear		10.0%	9.9%	9.8%	9.6%	9.5%	9.4%	9.3%	9.0%	8.8%	8.9%	8.8%	8.7%	8.6%	8.4%	8.2%	7.9%	7.6%	7.4%	7.1%	7.0%	6.7%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	6.3%	6.2%
181		Hydroelectric		9.1%	9.0%	8.9%	8.7%	8.6%	8.5%	8.4%	8.5%	8.4%	8.4%	8.3%	8.3%	8.2%	8.1%	8.0%	7.8%	7.6%	7.2%	7.0%	6.8%	6.6%	6.4%	6.3%	6.3%	6.2%	6.0%
182		Utility-Scale Solar		0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%	1.2%	1.9%	2.3%	2.7%	3.1%	3.9%	4.9%	6.0%	7.8%	8.7%	9.2%	11.1%	13.0%	14.5%	15.4%	16.4%	17.2%
183		Distributed Solar		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.8%	1.1%	1.3%	1.6%	1.9%	2.2%	2.6%	2.8%	3.3%	4.0%	4.4%	4.7%	5.0%	5.1%	5.3%	5.4%	5.6%
184		Wind		1.0%	1.5%	2.3%	3.1%	3.5%	4.0%	5.1%	5.2%	5.6%	6.2%	6.9%	7.3%	7.8%	8.6%	9.6%	10.5%	11.1%	11.5%	12.0%	11.9%	13.3%	14.6%	15.4%	15.4%	15.5%	15.4%
185		Geothermal		0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
186		Battery		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	1.3%	1.6%	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%	2.5%	2.8%	3.2%	3.6%
187		Other		6.2%	6.1%	6.0%	5.9%	5.8%	5.6%	5.4%	5.4%	5.2%	5.1%	4.9%	4.8%	4.5%	4.4%	4.2%	4.0%	3.9%	3.7%	3.6%	3.5%	3.4%	3.3%	3.2%	3.2%	3.2%	3.1%
188		Total		100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
189
241
242	Capacity (MW)			2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
243		Coal		316,259	316,456	317,206	318,613	322,950	324,216	316,724	311,018	306,275	289,599	280,903	273,955	259,343	244,888	233,314	226,916	219,735	219,735	219,735	219,735	203,498	172,973	147,027	124,973	116,951	116,951
244		Natural Gas		479,747	484,368	491,489	497,387	502,675	510,834	516,767	517,612	522,630	523,252	524,085	529,143	542,984	547,081	550,562	556,777	566,069	572,252	574,324	581,119	584,920	584,920	585,600	585,600	585,600	585,600
245		Nuclear		108,652	108,652	108,652	108,652	108,652	108,652	108,652	104,947	104,384	104,384	105,152	105,152	104,602	102,951	100,972	99,960	99,149	101,377	101,377	101,377	101,377	101,377	101,377	101,454	101,839	101,839
246		Hydroelectric		98,634	98,640	98,659	98,675	98,573	98,584	98,663	98,927	98,971	98,992	99,262	99,346	99,427	99,296	99,440	99,496	99,518	99,563	99,568	99,655	99,830	99,840	99,840	99,840	99,840	99,840
247		Utility-Scale Solar		416	525	559	674	910	1,697	3,315	6,878	10,681	14,229	22,332	27,560	32,473	38,073	48,696	61,821	79,136	107,991	123,835	134,568	168,415	202,398	230,078	244,743	265,891	284,330
248		Distributed Solar										7,327	9,779	12,765	16,148	19,547	23,214	27,585	32,972	36,506	45,388	56,433	64,554	70,635	77,291	80,733	84,330	88,089	92,019
249		Wind		11,372	16,685	25,261	35,249	39,942	46,744	60,029	60,878	65,736	73,571	82,315	88,304	95,176	104,329	118,752	132,819	145,006	159,129	171,159	173,032	201,853	226,490	243,262	244,700	251,571	254,723
250		Geothermal		3,102	3,131	3,194	3,393	3,416	3,418	3,623	3,685	3,708	3,760	3,722	3,730	3,826	3,836	3,862	3,887	3,959	3,996	4,296	4,618	4,964	5,337	5,737	6,167	6,630	7,127
251		Battery		43	43	46	52	65	117	189	220	251	403	600	707	924	1,092	1,578	4,805	10,864	18,368	22,324	25,673	29,524	33,952	39,045	44,902	51,637	59,383
252		Other		67,136	67,234	67,290	67,054	66,370	65,299	63,299	62,627	61,300	59,769	58,480	57,711	55,030	53,982	52,520	51,376	51,023	51,065	51,086	51,126	51,176	51,176	51,176	51,176	51,176	51,176
253		Total		1,085,360	1,095,733	1,112,355	1,129,748	1,143,552	1,159,560	1,171,261	1,166,792	1,181,261	1,177,736	1,189,615	1,201,755	1,213,331	1,218,740	1,237,281	1,270,829	1,310,964	1,378,864	1,424,137	1,455,456	1,516,191	1,555,753	1,583,874	1,587,885	1,619,223	1,652,987
254
255		Capacity Factors (%)
256		Coal		72.8	73.7	72.5	64.2	67.2	62.3	54.0	57.1	58.0	50.7	48.4	49.2	47.9	42.3	35.6	43.5	43.0	37.7	32.0	27.2	25.0	25.0	25.0	25.0	25.0	25.0
257		Natural Gas		19.7	21.5	20.9	21.5	22.8	23.1	27.6	25.1	25.1	29.5	30.4	28.5	31.8	33.7	34.2	33.0	33.6	31.1	32.0	33.3	32.1	31.2	30.8	31.7	31.4	31.2
258		Nuclear		83.9	85.9	85.9	85.1	86.0	84.2	82.0	86.1	88.0	88.4	88.8	88.6	89.0	90.2	89.7	89.9	89.6	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5	89.5
259		Hydroelectric		33.9	29.0	29.9	32.1	30.5	37.5	32.4	31.5	30.3	29.1	31.2	35.0	34.1	33.5	33.2	30.3	31.8	32.0	32.0	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9	31.9
260		Utility-Scale Solar		14.1	15.3	18.9	17.5	18.8	19.0	21.5	23.2	24.3	24.5	24.9	25.2	24.9	24.2	24.4	24.5	25.1	21.0	21.2	21.3	21.5	21.6	21.8	21.9	22.1	22.2
261		Distributed Solar										20.2	19.2	19.0	18.9	18.6	18.8	18.6	18.4	18.6	18.7	18.8	18.9	19.0	19.1	19.2	19.3	19.4	19.5
262		Wind		31.5	30.7	31.7	28.4	29.7	32.3	32.0	32.3	33.8	32.1	34.6	34.7	34.9	34.6	35.9	35.0	37.2	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5	32.5
263		Geothermal		53.6	53.4	53.0	50.5	50.9	51.1	49.0	48.9	48.9	48.3	48.5	48.7	47.6	46.0	47.0	47.7	49.2	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0	70.0
264		Other
265		Total
266
267		Natural Gas heat rate		7,621	7,630	7,552	7,462	7,479	7,472	7,432	7,282	7,230	7,203	7,240	7,140	7,194	7,106	7,150	7,155	7,130	7,105	7,080	7,055	7,030	7,005	6,980	6,955	6,930	6,905
268		Natural Gas delivered for power (000 Mcf)		6,222,100	6,841,407	6,668,380	6,872,533	7,387,184	7,573,863	9,110,794	8,190,753	8,145,983	9,613,371	9,985,270	9,265,556	10,588,938	11,288,095	11,631,723	11,270,554	10,985,891	11,073,024	11,411,501	11,946,002	11,568,864	11,194,911	11,040,960	11,312,039	11,170,211	11,049,202
269		Days		365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365
270		Bcf/d		17.0	18.7	18.2	18.8	20.2	20.8	24.9	22.4	22.3	26.3	27.3	25.4	29.0	30.9	31.8	30.9	30.1	30.3	31.2	32.7	31.7	30.7	30.2	31.0	30.6	30.3
271		Increase (Decrease)			10.0%	-2.8%	3.3%	7.5%	2.5%	20.0%	-9.9%	-0.5%	18.0%	3.6%	-7.0%	14.3%	6.6%	2.8%	-2.8%	-2.5%	0.8%	2.8%	5.0%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-1.6%	2.7%	-1.3%	-1.1%
272
273		Utility-Scale Wind & Solar Power Build-Up
274				2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
275		Pre-IRA PTCs		2.10	1.10	0.90	1.30	1.40	1.40	1.60	1.70	1.50	2.60	3.20	4.30	4.80	5.10	4.70	4.76	4.70	4.96	5.31	5.55	5.32	5.16	4.87	4.52	3.96	3.29
276		Pre-IRA ITCs		0.00	0.00	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.40	0.50	0.60	0.75	1.12	2.55	1.99	2.75	3.50	6.80	5.84	6.62	6.43	6.98	7.12	6.57	6.48	5.23	4.21	3.02	2.38
277		IRA Extension of Existing PTCs		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.56	2.18	3.32	4.82	6.43	7.68	8.23	8.33	8.51
278		IRA Extension of Existing ITCs		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.14	1.56	2.46	5.37	2.36	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00
279		IRA - New PTCs		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.57	1.86	3.50	5.22
280		IRA - New ITCs		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.06	6.58	10.32	10.74	11.26	11.87
281		ITC & PTC ($Billion)		2.10	1.10	0.95	1.35	1.45	1.80	2.10	2.30	2.25	3.72	5.75	6.29	7.55	8.60	11.50	10.60	11.32	15.09	16.03	18.48	22.15	27.05	28.71	29.61	30.08	31.26
282																					100.0%	100.0%	90.0%	90.0%	85.0%	85.0%	85.0%	85.0%	85.0%
283		ITC & PTC ($Billion)		2.10	1.10	0.95	1.35	1.45	1.80	2.10	2.30	2.25	3.72	5.75	6.29	7.55	8.60	11.50	10.60	11.32	15.09	16.03	16.64	19.93	22.99	24.40	25.17	25.57	26.57
284
285				2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
286		Assumed % Subsidies wind & solar		99.0%	98.8%	98.5%	98.3%	98.0%	97.8%	97.5%	97.3%	97.0%	96.8%	96.5%	96.3%	96.0%	95.8%	95.5%	95.3%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%	95.0%
287		Historical $ Subsidies / mWh		76.7	31.0	16.6	17.7	14.8	14.4	14.1	12.6	10.9	16.7	21.1	19.7	21.5	22.4	25.7	20.5
288		Estimated $ Subsidies / mWh																		20.0	22.0	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	20.5	20.5	19.8	19.8
289																	5yr average		22.0
290
291		Generation		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
292		% Solar		1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.2%	1.3%	1.5%	3.0%	5.1%	8.9%	11.5%	13.7%	17.3%	19.0%	19.6%	20.9%	23.4%	26.0%	30.5%	32.0%	33.8%	35.5%	37.3%	38.8%	40.3%	41.8%	43.3%
293		% Wind		98.1%	98.3%	98.5%	98.8%	98.7%	98.5%	97.0%	94.9%	91.1%	88.5%	86.3%	82.7%	81.0%	80.4%	79.1%	76.6%	74.0%	69.5%	68.0%	66.2%	64.5%	62.7%	61.2%	59.7%	58.2%	56.7%
294																					652	717	826	990	1,209	1,331	1,372	1,447	1,504
295		Solar Generation (Utility-Scale, TWh)		1	1	1	1	1	2	4	9	18	25	36	53	64	72	89	115	140	199	229	251	316	383	438	470	514	553
296		Wind Generation TWh		27	34	55	74	95	120	141	168	182	191	227	254	273	296	338	378	398	453	487	493	575	645	693	697	716	725
297		Wind & Solar TWh		27	35	56	75	96	122	145	177	199	216	263	308	336	368	427	493	538	652	717	744	891	1,028	1,131	1,166	1,230	1,278
298
299		Wind & Solar Annual Growth			29.4%	60.4%	33.0%	28.2%	27.3%	19.0%	21.9%	12.7%	8.2%	22.0%	16.9%	9.4%	9.3%	16.1%	15.5%	9.0%	21.2%	10.0%	3.8%	19.8%	15.3%	10.0%	3.1%	5.5%	3.9%
300																					59	31	50	73	99	65	37	52	46
301		Capacity (MW)																			55	34	60	91	120	56	5	23	11
302		Solar capacity		416	525	559	674	910	1,697	3,315	6,878	10,681	14,229	22,332	27,560	32,473	38,073	48,696	61,821	79,136	107,991	123,835	134,568	168,415	202,398	230,078	244,743	265,891	284,330
303		Solar capacity factors		13.9%	13.3%	17.6%	15.1%	15.2%	12.2%	14.9%	15.0%	18.9%	20.0%	18.4%	22.1%	22.4%	21.6%	20.9%	21.3%	20.1%	21.0%	21.2%	21.3%	21.5%	21.6%	21.8%	21.9%	22.1%	22.2%
304		Capacity additions			109	35	115	236	787	1,618	3,563	3,804	3,547	8,104	5,227	4,913	5,600	10,623	13,125	17,315	28,855	15,845	10,733	33,847	33,983	27,680	14,665	21,147	18,440
305		5yr Rolling Capacity additions							1,281	2,791	6,319	10,007	13,319	20,635	24,244	25,595	27,391	34,467	39,489	51,576	75,518	85,763	85,872	106,594	123,262	122,087	120,908	131,322	115,916
306
307		Wind capacity		11,372	16,685	25,261	35,249	39,942	46,744	60,029	60,878	65,736	73,571	82,315	88,304	95,176	104,329	118,752	132,819	145,006	159,129	171,159	173,032	201,853	226,490	243,262	244,700	251,571	254,723
308		Wind capacity factors		26.7%	23.6%	25.0%	23.9%	27.1%	29.3%	26.8%	31.5%	31.5%	29.6%	31.5%	32.9%	32.7%	32.4%	32.5%	32.5%	31.3%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%	32.5%
309		Capacity additions			5,313	8,576	9,988	4,692	6,803	13,284	849	4,858	7,835	8,744	5,990	6,872	9,152	14,423	14,068	12,186	14,124	12,030	1,873	28,822	24,637	16,772	1,439	6,871	3,152
310		5yr Rolling Capacity additions							35,372	43,344	35,617	30,487	33,629	35,570	28,276	34,298	38,593	45,181	50,505	56,701	63,953	66,831	54,280	69,034	81,484	84,133	73,541	78,540	52,870
311
312		Solar		416	525	559	674	910	1,697	3,315	6,878	10,681	14,229	22,332	27,560	32,473	38,073	48,696	61,821	79,136	105,682	119,551	121,221	122,447	122,722	122,777	122,777	122,999	122,999
313		Wind		11,372	16,685	25,261	35,249	39,942	46,744	60,029	60,878	65,736	73,571	82,315	88,304	95,176	104,329	118,752	132,819	145,006	149,272	155,091	159,678	162,265	164,905	164,905	166,053	166,053	166,053
314		Total Wind & Solar		11,788	17,210	25,820	35,923	40,851	48,442	63,344	67,756	76,417	87,799	104,647	115,864	127,649	142,401	167,448	194,640	224,142	254,954	274,642	280,899	284,712	287,627	287,682	288,830	289,053	289,053
315		% Solar		3.5%	3.0%	2.2%	1.9%	2.2%	3.5%	5.2%	10.2%	14.0%	16.2%	21.3%	23.8%	25.4%	26.7%	29.1%	31.8%	35.3%	41.5%	43.5%	43.2%	43.0%	42.7%	42.7%	42.5%	42.6%	42.6%
316		% Wind		96.5%	97.0%	97.8%	98.1%	97.8%	96.5%	94.8%	89.8%	86.0%	83.8%	78.7%	76.2%	74.6%	73.3%	70.9%	68.2%	64.7%	58.5%	56.5%	56.8%	57.0%	57.3%	57.3%	57.5%	57.4%	57.4%
317
318		Total Wind & Solar Capacity		11,788	17,210	25,820	35,923	40,851	48,442	63,344	67,756	76,417	87,799	104,647	115,864	127,649	142,401	167,448	194,640	224,142	267,120	294,994	307,600	370,268	428,888	473,340	489,444	517,462	539,053
319		Incremental Additions due to IRA																	0	0	12,165	20,353	26,701	85,556	141,261	185,658	200,614	228,409	250,001
320
321		Distributed Solar
322				2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
323		Distributed Solar Generation (TWhrs)										11	14	19	24	30	35	42	49	59	74	93	107	117	129	136	142	150	157
324													25.9%	33.1%	27.5%	23.1%	18.3%	18.8%	18.1%	21.2%	25.0%	25.0%	15.0%	10.0%	10.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
325		Distributed Solar Capacity (MW)										7,327	9,779	12,765	16,148	19,547	23,214	27,585	32,972	36,506	45,388	56,433	64,554	70,635	77,291	80,733	84,330	88,089	92,019
326													33.5%	30.5%	26.5%	21.1%	18.8%	18.8%	19.5%	10.7%	24.3%	24.3%	14.4%	9.4%	9.4%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
327
328		Distributed Solar Capacity Factors										20.2	19.2	19.0	18.9	18.6	18.8	18.6	18.4	18.6	18.7	18.8	18.9	19.0	19.1	19.2	19.3	19.4	19.5
329
330		Electric Vehicle Power Demand																											https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/12/f69/GITT%20ISATT%20EVs%20at%20Scale%20Grid%20Summary%20Report%20FINAL%20Nov2019.pdf
331		Registrations		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
332		Electric (EV)								0	0	0	0	280,300	377,100	572,600	783,600	1,018,900	1,454,400	2,150,153	2,974,784	4,098,007	5,597,960	7,522,604	9,941,179	12,916,533	16,498,424	20,716,326	25,572,533
333		Plug-In Hybrid Electric (PHEV)								0	0	0	0	254,000	344,600	461,300	536,600	594,400	786,800	946,017	1,275,595	1,681,700	2,169,873	2,730,386	3,356,129	4,033,956	4,744,553	5,463,013	6,160,212
334		Total								44,677	141,779	260,661	374,684	534,300	721,700	1,033,900	1,320,200	1,613,300	2,241,200	3,096,170	4,250,380	5,779,707	7,767,833	10,252,990	13,297,308	16,950,489	21,242,977	26,179,338	31,732,745
335		Incremental EV Registrations								44,677	97,102	118,882	114,023	159,616	187,400	312,200	286,300	293,100	627,900	854,970	1,154,210	1,529,328	1,988,126	2,485,157	3,044,318	3,653,181	4,292,488	4,936,361	5,553,406
336		Y/Y									117.3%	22.4%	-4.1%	40.0%	17.4%	66.6%	-8.3%	2.4%	114.2%	36.2%	35.0%	32.5%	30.0%	25.0%	22.5%	20.0%	17.5%	15.0%	12.5%
337		LDV Registrations								14,492,277	15,581,565	16,523,548	17,468,935	17,547,028	17,241,387	17,213,546	16,952,912	14,472,032	14,946,973	13,697,343	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116	14,372,116
338		EV % LDV								0.3%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.9%	1.1%	1.8%	1.7%	2.0%	4.2%	6.2%	8.0%	10.6%	13.8%	17.3%	21.2%	25.4%	29.9%	34.3%	38.6%
339		Implied New Vehicles																				294,400	362,000	444,400	245,600	662,000	749,200	842,800	932,400
340		Clean Vehicle Tax Expenditures ($Billion)												0.302	0.7966	1.19	1.49	1.69	1.69			0.736	0.905	1.111	0.614	1.655	1.873	2.107	2.331
341		$/Vehicle													4,251	3,812	5,204	5,766	2,692			2500	2500	2500	2500	2500	2500	2500	2500
342
343		EV Year-Over-Year Growth
344		Electric (EV)													34.5%	51.8%	36.8%	30.0%	42.7%	47.8%	38.4%	37.8%	36.6%	34.4%	32.2%	29.9%	27.7%	25.6%	23.4%
345		Plug-In Hybrid Electric (PHEV)													35.7%	33.9%	16.3%	10.8%	32.4%	20.2%	34.8%	31.8%	29.0%	25.8%	22.9%	20.2%	17.6%	15.1%	12.8%
346		Incremental EV Registrations									217.3%	83.9%	43.7%	42.6%	35.1%	43.3%	27.7%	22.2%	38.9%	38.1%	35.0%	32.5%	30.0%	25.0%	22.5%	20.0%	17.5%	15.0%	12.5%
347																	59.4%	63.2%	64.9%	69.4%	71.4%	73.4%	75.4%	77.4%	79.4%	81.4%	83.4%	85.4%	87.4%
348		U.S. Registered Fleet															40.6%	36.8%	35.1%	30.6%	28.6%	26.6%	24.6%	22.6%	20.6%	18.6%	16.6%	14.6%	12.6%
349		EV												280,300	377,100	572,600	783,600	1,018,900	1,454,400	2,150,153	2,974,784	4,098,007	5,597,960	7,522,604	9,941,179	12,916,533	16,498,424	20,716,326	25,572,533
350		PHEV												254,000	344,600	461,300	536,600	594,400	786,800	946,017	1,275,595	1,681,700	2,169,873	2,730,386	3,356,129	4,033,956	4,744,553	5,463,013	6,160,212
351		Other Green Technology												26,603,300	29,310,500	31,149,700	32,627,400	33,347,000	28,991,000	31,395,971	31,709,931	32,027,030	32,347,301	32,670,774	32,997,481	33,327,456	33,660,731	33,997,338	34,337,311
352		Gasoline												224,855,100	227,415,700	229,074,100	231,358,800	231,992,200	240,699,500	240,158,876	241,715,855	242,628,121	243,140,391	243,229,196	242,788,738	241,779,399	240,117,670	237,850,804	235,001,582
353		Diesel												7,734,000	8,115,800	8,279,800	8,550,900	8,860,500	8,904,803	8,993,851	8,805,150	8,911,271	8,984,066	9,009,026	9,030,080	9,037,398	9,084,312	9,119,266	9,146,577
354		US Vehicle Fleet												259,726,700	265,563,700	269,537,500	273,857,300	275,813,000	280,836,503	283,644,868	286,481,316	289,346,129	292,239,591	295,161,987	298,113,606	301,094,742	304,105,690	307,146,747	310,218,214
355		2-axle or more combo truck												12,394,308	12,672,853	12,862,485	13,068,628	13,085,643	13,479,382	13,614,176	13,750,318	13,887,821	14,026,699	14,166,966	14,308,636	14,451,722	14,596,239	14,742,202	14,889,624
356		% 2-axle or more combo truck												4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
357		Light vehicle fleet												247,332,392	252,890,847	256,675,015	260,788,672	262,727,357	267,357,121	270,030,692	272,730,999	275,458,309	278,212,892	280,995,021	283,804,971	286,643,021	289,509,451	292,404,545	295,328,591
358
359		Assumed Fleet CAGR																	1.0%										29.51%
360		Fleet 1yr CAGR																	1.8%
361		Fleet 3yr CAGR																	1.4%
362		Fleet 5yr CAGR																	1.6%
363
364		U.S. Registered Fleet % of Total
365		EV												0.11%	0.14%	0.21%	0.29%	0.37%	0.52%	0.76%	1.04%	1.42%	1.92%	2.55%	3.33%	4.29%	5.43%	6.74%	8.24%
366		PHEV												0.10%	0.13%	0.17%	0.20%	0.22%	0.28%	0.33%	0.45%	0.58%	0.74%	0.93%	1.13%	1.34%	1.56%	1.78%	1.99%
367		Total EV + PHEV												0.21%	0.27%	0.38%	0.48%	0.58%	0.80%	1.09%	1.48%	2.00%	2.66%	3.47%	4.46%	5.63%	6.99%	8.52%	10.23%
368		Other Green Technology												10.24%	11.04%	11.56%	11.91%	12.09%	10.32%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%	11.07%
369		Gasoline												86.57%	85.64%	84.99%	84.48%	84.11%	85.71%	84.67%	84.37%	83.85%	83.20%	82.41%	81.44%	80.30%	78.96%	77.44%	75.75%
370		Diesel												2.98%	3.06%	3.07%	3.12%	3.21%	3.17%	3.17%	3.07%	3.08%	3.07%	3.05%	3.03%	3.00%	2.99%	2.97%	2.95%
371		US Vehicle Fleet												100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
372		2-axle or more combo truck												4.77%	4.77%	4.77%	4.77%	4.74%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%	4.80%
373		Light vehicle fleet												95.23%	95.23%	95.23%	95.23%	95.26%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%	95.20%
374
375		Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)		2,999,658	3,027,424	3,003,919	2,959,702	2,953,305	2,957,858	2,970,517	2,973,535	3,000,906	3,066,723	3,141,649	3,196,366	3,228,454	3,253,748	3,007,355	3,109,186	3,145,858	3,177,316	3,209,089	3,241,180	3,273,592	3,306,328	3,339,391	3,372,785	3,406,513	3,440,578
376		Y/Y			0.9%	-0.8%	-1.5%	-0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.9%	2.2%	2.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.8%	-7.6%	3.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%
377																				0.6%
378		Light Duty VMT																2,924,053	2,568,745
379		2-axle or more combo trucks VMT																300,050	302,141
380		Total																3,261,772	3,261,772
381		% Trucks																9.20%	9.26%
382
383		VMT / US Light Vehicle												12,702	12,639	12,578	12,477	11,447	11,629	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650
384		Miles Driven / Driver												15,545	15,468	15,393	15,269	14,009	14,232
385		Cars / driver												122%	122%	122%	122%	122%	122%
386
387		% Miles EV												0.18%	0.24%	0.34%	0.43%	0.53%	0.74%	1.02%	1.39%	1.88%	2.52%	3.31%	4.27%	5.42%	6.76%	8.30%	10.01%
388		ICE Miles												3,135,991	3,188,769	3,217,480	3,239,620	2,991,269	3,086,325	3,113,645	3,133,000	3,148,613	3,159,533	3,165,278	3,165,099	3,158,366	3,144,650	3,123,799	3,096,010
389															1.68%	0.90%	0.69%	-7.67%	3.18%	0.89%	0.62%	0.50%	0.35%	0.18%	-0.01%	-0.21%	-0.43%	-0.66%	-0.89%
390
391		% Electric (EV)												0.11%	0.14%	0.21%	0.29%	0.37%	0.52%	0.76%	1.04%	1.42%	1.92%	2.55%	3.33%	4.29%	5.43%	6.74%	8.24%
392		% Plug-In Hybrid Electric (PHEV)												0.10%	0.13%	0.17%	0.20%	0.22%	0.28%	0.33%	0.45%	0.58%	0.74%	0.93%	1.13%	1.34%	1.56%	1.78%	1.99%
393		Total % US Light Vehicle Fleet												0.21%	0.27%	0.38%	0.48%	0.58%	0.80%	1.09%	1.48%	2.00%	2.66%	3.47%	4.46%	5.63%	6.99%	8.52%	10.23%
394
395									2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
396		Average Miles												12,702	12,639	12,578	12,477	11,447	11,629	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650	11,650
397		% Electrified PHEV Miles												65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%	65.0%
398		Electric Miles												5,657,530,145	7,597,363,291	10,973,598,456	14,128,342,586	16,085,556,280	22,861,182,867	32,212,994,684	44,315,680,879	60,476,456,753	81,647,597,053	108,314,187,009	141,229,023,815	181,024,744,916	228,134,769,605	282,713,858,253	344,568,213,270
399		kWh per Mile												0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31
400		TWHrs		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.75	2.36	3.40	4.38	4.99	7.09	9.99	13.74	18.75	25.31	33.58	43.78	56.12	70.72	87.64	106.82
401		% Total US Generation												0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.11%	0.12%	0.17%	0.24%	0.33%	0.45%	0.60%	0.79%	1.02%	1.29%	1.61%	1.98%	2.39%
402																													51,238
403		Incremental EV TWHr													(0.6)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(0.6)	(2.1)	(2.9)	(3.8)	(5.0)	(6.6)	(8.3)	(10.2)	(12.3)	(14.6)	(16.9)	(19.2)
404		Incremental Wind & Solar TWHr													44.5	28.9	31.3	59.3	66.3	44.2	114.0	65.0	27.0	147.4	136.7	103.1	35.3	63.6	48.3
405		Net Supply (Demand)		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	43.94	27.86	30.35	58.71	64.22	41.35	110.25	60.01	20.42	139.16	126.45	90.81	20.65	46.71	29.15
406		EV Demand as % Incremental Wind & Solar Supply													1.4%	3.6%	3.1%	1.0%	3.2%	6.6%	3.3%	7.7%	24.3%	5.6%	7.5%	12.0%	41.4%	26.6%	39.7%
407
408	US Total	Total Gallons Sold (Billion)								172.5	174.0	177.6	182.5	186.3	188.0	189.5	190.6	169.8	185.3	184.0	184.8	185.4	185.7	185.8	185.5	184.8	183.7	182.2	180.3
409		Gasoline								135.1	135.7	137.9	141.8	144.9	145.3	145.9	146.8	127.8	140.0	138.4	138.5	138.5	138.3	137.9	137.2	136.2	134.9	133.4	131.5
410		Diesel								37.4	38.3	39.7	40.6	41.4	42.8	43.6	43.8	42.0	45.3	45.6	46.3	46.9	47.4	47.9	48.3	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.7
411		% Gasoline								78.3%	78.0%	77.7%	77.7%	77.8%	77.3%	77.0%	77.0%	75.3%	75.6%	75.2%	75.0%	74.7%	74.5%	74.2%	74.0%	73.7%	73.5%	73.2%	73.0%
412		% Diesel								27.7%	28.2%	28.8%	28.6%	28.6%	29.4%	29.9%	29.8%	32.9%	32.4%	24.8%	25.0%	25.3%	25.5%	25.8%	26.0%	26.3%	26.5%	26.8%	27.0%
413		ICE mile driven per gal gasoline sold												21.6	22.0	22.0	22.1	23.4	22.0	22.5	22.6	22.7	22.8	23.0	23.1	23.2	23.3	23.4	23.5
414		ICE mile driven per total gal sold												16.8	17.0	17.0	17.0	17.6	16.7	17.1	17.2	17.3	17.3	17.4	17.5	17.6	17.7	17.8	17.9
415
416		Total Gallons vs 2022 (%)																			0.5	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.8	0.4	(0.1)	(1.0)	(2.0)
417		Gasoline Demand vs 2022 (%)																			0.1	0.1	(0.0)	(0.3)	(0.9)	(1.6)	(2.5)	(3.6)	(4.9)
418		Diesel Demand vs 2022 (%)																			1.5	2.8	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.5	6.9	7.0	6.9
419
420
437		U.S. Natural Gas Demand										Dec-14	Dec-15	Dec-16	Dec-17	Dec-18	Dec-19	Dec-20	Dec-21	Dec-22
438		Million Cf		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
439		Natural Gas Deliveries
440		Residential	Residential	4,368,467	4,722,358	4,892,277	4,778,907	4,782,411	4,713,779	4,149,519	4,897,371	5,087,471	4,612,887	4,346,587	4,413,323	4,997,554	5,018,519	4,674,461	4,716,209	4,678,037	4,640,174	4,602,618	4,565,365	4,528,414	4,491,762	4,455,407	4,419,346	4,383,576	4,348,097
441		Commercial	Commercial	2,832,029	3,012,904	3,152,529	3,118,592	3,102,594	3,155,320	2,894,925	3,295,300	3,466,309	3,201,733	3,109,584	3,164,615	3,513,952	3,514,567	3,169,956	3,298,221	3,296,446	3,294,673	3,292,900	3,291,129	3,289,358	3,287,588	3,285,819	3,284,052	3,282,285	3,280,519
442		Industrial	Industrial	6,526,545	6,654,717	6,670,180	6,167,372	6,826,193	6,994,121	7,226,216	7,425,450	7,646,040	7,521,903	7,728,689	7,943,016	8,417,299	8,416,662	8,160,800	8,294,682	8,351,689	8,409,088	8,466,881	8,525,072	8,583,662	8,642,656	8,702,054	8,761,861	8,822,079	8,882,711
443		Vehicle Fuel	Vehicle Fuel	23,737	24,653	25,986	27,260	28,661	29,977	29,969	30,045	35,286	39,389	42,030	48,204	50,417	53,163	49,140	54,480	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081	51,081
444		Power	Power	6,222,100	6,841,407	6,668,380	6,872,533	7,387,184	7,573,863	9,110,794	8,190,753	8,145,983	9,613,371	9,985,270	9,265,556	10,588,938	11,288,095	11,631,723	11,270,554	10,985,891	11,073,024	11,411,501	11,946,002	11,568,864	11,194,911	11,040,960	11,312,039	11,170,211	11,049,202
445		Total		19,972,878	21,256,039	21,409,352	20,964,664	22,127,043	22,467,060	23,411,423	23,838,919	24,381,089	24,989,283	25,212,160	24,834,714	27,568,160	28,291,006	27,686,080	27,634,146	27,363,145	27,468,040	27,824,981	28,378,649	28,021,379	27,667,997	27,535,321	27,828,378	27,709,232	27,611,609
446		LNG Exports		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,012,259	3,902,607	5,983,234	10,053,411	13,165,160	19,702,207	21,763,322	26,357,667	29,892,456	33,901,104	37,309,629	41,060,849	45,189,217	49,732,649	54,732,876	60,235,822
447		Subtotal		19,972,878	21,256,039	21,409,352	20,964,664	22,127,043	22,467,060	23,411,423	23,838,919	24,381,089	24,989,283	26,224,419	28,737,321	33,551,394	38,344,417	40,851,240	47,336,353	49,126,466	53,825,707	57,717,437	62,279,752	65,331,008	68,728,846	72,724,538	77,561,028	82,442,108	87,847,431
448		Pipeline, Lease and Plant Fuel		1,989,730	2,117,561	2,132,834	2,088,534	2,204,332	2,238,205	2,332,284	2,374,872	2,428,884	2,489,473	2,511,676	2,474,074	2,746,385	2,818,396	2,758,132	2,752,958	2,725,961	2,736,411	2,771,970	2,827,127	2,791,535	2,756,331	2,743,113	2,772,308	2,760,439	2,750,713
449		Total Gas Consumption		21,962,608	23,373,600	23,542,186	23,053,198	24,331,375	24,705,265	25,743,707	26,213,791	26,809,973	27,478,756	28,736,095	31,211,396	36,297,779	41,162,813	43,609,372	50,089,311	51,852,427	56,562,117	60,489,407	65,106,879	68,122,544	71,485,177	75,467,651	80,333,336	85,202,547	90,598,145
450				365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	365	365	365	366	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365
451		Natural Gas Deliveries, Bcf/d		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
452		Residential	Residential	12.0	12.9	13.4	13.1	13.1	12.9	11.3	13.4	13.9	12.6	11.9	12.1	13.7	13.7	12.8	12.9	12.8	12.7	12.6	12.5	12.4	12.3	12.2	12.1	12.0	11.9
453		Commercial	Commercial	7.8	8.3	8.6	8.5	8.5	8.6	7.9	9.0	9.5	8.8	8.5	8.7	9.6	9.6	8.7	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0
454		Industrial	Industrial	17.9	18.2	18.2	16.9	18.7	19.2	19.7	20.3	20.9	20.6	21.1	21.8	23.1	23.1	22.4	22.7	22.9	23.0	23.1	23.4	23.5	23.7	23.8	24.0	24.2	24.3
455		Vehicle Fuel	Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
456		Power	Power	17.0	18.7	18.2	18.8	20.2	20.8	24.9	22.4	22.3	26.3	27.3	25.4	29.0	30.9	31.9	30.9	30.1	30.3	31.2	32.7	31.7	30.7	30.2	31.0	30.6	30.3
457		Total		54.7	58.2	58.5	57.4	60.6	61.6	64.0	65.3	66.8	68.5	68.9	68.0	75.5	77.5	75.9	75.7	75.0	75.0	76.0	77.7	76.8	75.8	75.2	76.2	75.9	75.6
458		LNG Exports	LNG Exports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.9	3.0	5.0	6.5	9.7	10.8	13.0	14.8	16.7	18.4	20.3	22.3	24.5	27.0	29.7
459		Subtotal		54.7	58.2	58.5	57.4	60.6	61.6	64.0	65.3	66.8	68.5	69.4	70.0	78.5	82.5	82.4	85.5	85.7	88.1	90.8	94.5	95.2	96.1	97.5	100.8	102.9	105.3
460		Pipeline, Lease and Plant Fuel	Pipeline, Lease and Plant Fuel	5.5	5.8	5.8	5.7	6.0	6.1	6.4	6.5	6.7	6.8	6.9	6.8	7.5	7.7	7.6	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.6	7.7	7.6	7.6	7.5	7.6	7.6	7.5
461	9.1%	Total Gas Consumption (Bcf/d)		60.2	64.0	64.3	63.2	66.7	67.7	70.3	71.8	73.5	75.3	76.3	76.8	86.0	90.2	89.9	93.0	93.2	95.6	98.4	102.2	102.8	103.6	105.0	108.3	110.4	112.8
462
482
483		Customers
484		Residential		64,166,280	64,964,769	65,073,996	65,329,582	65,542,345	65,940,522	66,375,134	66,812,393	67,196,751	67,923,465	68,433,125	69,067,541	69,737,549	70,431,299	71,540,702	71,936,406
485		Commercial		5,273,379	5,308,785	5,444,335	5,322,332	5,301,576	5,319,817	5,356,397	5,372,522	5,413,546	5,453,627	5,474,701	5,499,932	5,518,358	5,551,599	5,627,741	5,611,726
486		Industrial		193,830	198,289	225,044	207,624	192,730	189,301	189,372	192,288	192,139	188,336	188,836	184,959	185,009	183,507	184,458	182,019
487		Total		69,633,489	70,471,843	70,743,375	70,859,538	71,036,651	71,449,640	71,920,903	72,377,203	72,802,436	73,565,428	74,096,662	74,752,432	75,440,916	76,166,405	77,352,901	77,730,151
488
504		LNG
505		Exports - Bcf/d		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
506		Sabine Pass, Louisiana	Sabine Pass, Louisiana	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	1.93	2.55	3.13	2.53	3.40	3.99
507		Cove Point, Maryland	Cove Point, Maryland	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.39	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.73
508		Corpus Christi, Texas	Corpus Christi, Texas	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.86	1.08	1.95	2.08
509		Cameron, Louisiana	Cameron, Louisiana	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	1.04	1.65	2.43
510		Freeport, Texas	Freeport, Texas	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13	1.13	1.87	1.24
511		Elba Island, Georgia	Elba Island, Georgia	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.10	0.23	0.29
512				0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	1.93	2.96	4.98	6.52	9.75	10.76	13.03	14.77	16.74	18.42	20.26	22.28	24.51	26.96	29.66
513
514		Average Annual Capacity Bcf/d		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.7	2.3	3.6	5.8	10.0	11.5	13.0	14.5	16.4	18.6	20.5	22.5	24.8	27.2	30.0	33.0
515		Capacity Utilization												72.1%	82.6%	82.1%	85.7%	65.1%	84.5%	82.6%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%	90.0%
516
517		Annual increase													236.4%	54.1%	61.0%	72.3%	15.2%	12.9%	11.1%	13.4%	13.4%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%
518
519		Emissions
520									2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
521		Total Mt CO2e From Coal Power							1,725,725,861	1,518,919,096	1,573,395,559	1,583,773,578	1,373,662,016	1,263,369,506	1,223,630,450	1,168,983,618	986,128,383	800,215,969	921,715,852	873,205,850	741,237,201	629,212,015	534,116,548	453,392,450	384,867,960	326,699,486	277,322,026	259,172,753	258,824,127
522		Generation (TWhrs)							1,733	1,514	1,581	1,582	1,352	1,239	1,206	1,149	965	773	899	854	726	617	524	446	379	322	274	256	256
523
524		Coal Lbs CO2e/kWh							2.19	2.21	2.19	2.21	2.24	2.25	2.24	2.24	2.25	2.28	2.26	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.24	2.24	2.24	2.23	2.23	2.23
525
526		Total Mt CO2e From Natural Gas Power							430,923,517	518,972,313	473,162,573	472,459,510	555,238,955	565,233,376	531,304,216	606,465,070	645,638,421	658,298,529	640,539,412	628,409,399	633,500,856	652,976,946	683,679,060	662,209,695	640,915,989	632,213,116	647,849,721	639,840,926	633,022,812
527		Generation (TWhrs)							1,014	1,226	1,125	1,127	1,335	1,379	1,298	1,472	1,589	1,627	1,575	1,541	1,559	1,612	1,693	1,646	1,598	1,582	1,626	1,612	1,600
528
529		Natural Gas CO2e Lbs/kWh							0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.88	0.88	0.88	0.87	0.87
530
531		Total Mt Coal & Gas CO2e Emissions							2,156,649,378	2,037,891,409	2,046,558,132	2,056,233,088	1,928,900,971	1,828,602,882	1,754,934,666	1,775,448,688	1,631,766,804	1,458,514,498	1,562,255,264	1,501,615,249	1,374,738,057	1,282,188,961	1,217,795,608	1,115,602,145	1,025,783,949	958,912,602	925,171,746	899,013,679	891,846,939
532		% Reduction Relative to 2022 Baseline																			8.4%	14.6%	18.9%	25.7%	31.7%	36.1%	38.4%	40.1%	40.6%
533
534		Total CO2e Lbs/kWh							1.16	1.11	1.11	1.11	1.04	0.99	0.96	0.94	0.87	0.80	0.84	0.80	0.73	0.67	0.63	0.58	0.53	0.49	0.47	0.45	0.44
535
536		Coal
537				2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
538		Coal Consumption for Electricity Generation		1,030,556	1,046,795	1,042,335	934,683	979,684	934,938	825,734	860,729	853,634	739,594	677,371	663,911	636,213	537,620	435,351	500,298	469,560	399,126	339,257	288,368	245,113	208,346	177,094	150,530	140,868	140,868
539		000 tons
540		Pound/kWh		1.04	1.04	1.05	1.06	1.06	1.08	1.09	1.09	1.08	1.09	1.09	1.10	1.11	1.11	1.13	1.11	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10	1.10


1
2		U.S. State-Level Assumptions																Jan-25-25
3
4
5									2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
6
7		Instructions:				Inflation Reduction Act			Case Inputs	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
8						PTC & ITC Spend Case			As Written	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
9									Base	100%	100%	90%	90%	85%	85%	80%	80%	80%
10						Case Selected			Downside	95%	90%	85%	75%	75%	75%	70%	70%	70%
11						As Written			Upside	100%	110%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%	115%
12										100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
13										2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
14									$/MWh PTC + ITC	10.9	16.7	21.1	19.7	21.5	22.4	25.7	20.5	20.0
15
16										2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
17									$/MWh PTC + ITC	22.0	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.3	20.5	20.5	19.8	19.8
18
19
20		EV							Power				Maximum Annual Gas Reduction Versus 2021
21		kWh per Mile	0.31						Coal Case		Base		2022		90.0%
22		% PHEV Miles Charged	65.0%						Minimum as % 2022		30.0%		2023		80.0%
23									Max single year drop		15.0%		2024		70.0%
24		Gasoline fleet annual mpg efficiency gain	0.50%						Min Coal/Gas Utilization		25.0%		2025		60.0%
25		Gasoline step down % total	0.25%										2026		50.0%
26		Min gasoline as % gasoline/diesel	65.00%						Heat rate reduction		25		2027		40.0%
27		Renewable							Nuclear Utilization Rate		90.0%		2028		30.0%
28		2024+ Geothermal Capacity Growth	7.5%						Direct Use		5.5%		2029		30.0%
29		Geothermal Capacity Factor	70.0%										2030		30.0%
30						2021 Supply		4,115	2031 Supply		4,444		2031		30.0%
31		2024+ Battery Capacity Growth	15.0%			2021 Demand		3,993	2031 Demand		4,244
32							3.07%	123		4.70%	200
33									Adjustment		25.0%
34
35
36
38
39		U.S. State Generation Demand Assumptions
40
840
841
842
843		U.S. State Distributed Solar Assumptions
844
994
995
996
997		U.S. State EV Penetration Assumptions
999
1207
1208
1209
1210		U.S. State Natural Gas Demand Assumptions
1211
1213
2013
2014		U.S. Power Market Statistics							U.S. Annual Power Generation (TWhrs)							(TWhrs)	Generation
2015
2016		Generation (TWhrs)	2022		2031
2017		Total	4,042		4,374		8% ▲
2018		Fossil Fuel	2,274		1,434		-37% ▼
2019		Renewable	901		2,076		130% ▲
2020		Renewable + Nuclear	1,693		2,866		69% ▲
2021
2022		Wind	412		770		87% ▲
2023		Utility-Scale Solar	140		739		429% ▲
2024		Distributed Solar	59		251		322% ▲
2025		Hydroelectric	273		273		0% ▬
2026		Geothermal	17		44		159% ▲
2027
2028		Nuclear	792		790		-0% ▼
2029
2030		Natural Gas	1,421		1,178		-17% ▼
2031		Coal	854		256		-70% ▼
2032
2033		Capacity (MW)	2022		2031
2034		Total	1,317,839		1,956,340		48% ▲
2035		Fossil Fuel	786,380		805,911		2% ▲
2036		Renewable	381,214		997,341		162% ▲
2037		Renewable + Nuclear	480,362		1,099,179		129% ▲		U.S. Annual Power Generation (Percent of Total)
2038
2039		Wind	145,006		267,859		85% ▲
2040		Utility-Scale Solar	79,119		403,686		410% ▲
2041		Distributed Solar	40,349		157,045		289% ▲
2042		Hydroelectric	101,914		102,236		0% ▲
2043		Geothermal	3,962		7,132		80% ▲
2044		Battery	10,864		59,383		447% ▲
2045
2046		Nuclear	99,149		101,839		3% ▲
2047
2048		Natural Gas	566,457		585,987		3% ▲
2049		Coal	219,923		219,923		0% ▬
2050
2051		Electric Vehicles	2022		2031
2052		Registered Vehicles	3,079,695		28,884,819		838% ▲
2053		EV Registrations	844,695		4,746,818		462% ▲
2054		% US Fleet	1.09%		9.25%		747% ▲
2055		TWHrs EV Demand	9.60		90.02		838% ▲
2056		% US Power Generation	0.24%		2.06%		767% ▲
2057
2058
2059		U.S. Power Generation Stack
2060		TWhrs	2022					2026						2031
2061
2062		Coal	854					446						256
2063		Natural Gas	1,421					1,482						1,178
2064		Nuclear	792					790						790
2065		Hydroelectric	273					273						273
2066		Utility-Scale Solar	140					399						739
2067		Distributed Solar	59					124						251
2068		Wind	412					597						770
2069		Geothermal	17					30						44
2070		Other	75					75						75
2071
2072			4,042					4,215						4,374
2073
2074		U.S. Power Capacity Stack
2075		1,317,839 MW							1,956,340 MW
2076
2077
2078
2079
2080
2081
2082
2083
2084
2085
2086
2087
2088
2089
2090
2091
2092
2093
2094
2095
2096
2097		Natural Gas
2098
2099		TWhrs Natural Gas Power By Year
2100		1,421				1,421	1,482						1,421	1,178
2101
2102
2103
2104
2105
2106
2107
2108
2109
2110
2111
2112		Bcf/day Natural Gas Power Demand
2113
2114
2115
2116
2117
2118
2119
2120
2121		Natural Gas Power Demand	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
2122
2123		Bcf/d	25.4	29.0	30.9	31.8	30.9	27.8	29.9	30.7	30.5	28.9	25.9	24.6	24.9	23.8	22.6
2124
2125		% Total Gas Consumption	33.1%	33.8%	34.3%	35.5%	33.2%	30.6%	31.3%	31.2%	30.3%	28.6%	25.9%	24.4%	23.9%	22.5%	21.1%
2126			31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8	31.8
2127		-19% ▼
2128
2129
2130		2031 vs 2022
2131
2132
2133
2134
2135
2136
2137
2138		2031 Estimated U.S. Generation By Major Fuel Types
2139
2140
2141			2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
2142
2143		Wind (TWhr)	254	273	296	338	378	412	457	483	534	597	676	718	731	754	770
2144
2145		% Total	6.3%	6.5%	7.2%	8.4%	9.2%	10.2%	11.0%	11.6%	12.7%	14.2%	15.9%	16.8%	17.0%	17.4%	17.6%
2146			770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770	770
2147		87% ▲
2148
2149
2150		2031 vs 2022
2151
2152
2153		Utility-Scale Solar (TWhr)	53	64	72	89	115	140	199	239	298	399	538	618	646	698	739
2154
2155		% Total	1.3%	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	2.8%	3.5%	4.8%	5.7%	7.1%	9.5%	12.7%	14.5%	15.0%	16.1%	16.9%
2156			739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739	739
2157		429% ▲
2158
2159
2160		2031 vs 2022
2161
2162
2163		Distributed Solar (TWhr)	24	29	35	41	49	59	73	88	106	124	144	166	191	218	251
2164
2165		% Total	0.6%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	1.5%	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%	2.9%	3.4%	3.9%	4.4%	5.0%	5.7%
2166			251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251	251
2167		322% ▲
2168
2169
2170		2031 vs 2022
2171
2172
2173		Nuclear (TWhr)	805	807	809	790	778	792	790	790	790	790	790	790	790	790	790
2174
2175		% Total	19.9%	19.3%	19.6%	19.7%	18.9%	19.6%	19.0%	18.9%	18.8%	18.7%	18.6%	18.5%	18.3%	18.2%	18.0%
2176			809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809	809
2177		-0% ▼
2178
2179
2180		2031 vs 2022
2181
2182
2183		Hydroelectric (TWhr)	299	291	286	284	258	273	273	273	273	273	273	273	273	273	273
2184
2185		% Total	7.4%	7.0%	6.9%	7.1%	6.3%	6.8%	6.6%	6.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.4%	6.4%	6.3%	6.3%	6.2%
2186			299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299	299
2187		0% ▬
2188
2189
2190		2031 vs 2022
2191
2192
2193		Natural Gas (TWhr)	1,298	1,472	1,588	1,627	1,575	1,421	1,532	1,578	1,564	1,482	1,335	1,275	1,286	1,233	1,178
2194
2195		% Total	32.2%	35.2%	38.5%	40.6%	38.3%	35.1%	36.9%	37.9%	37.3%	35.2%	31.5%	29.9%	29.9%	28.4%	26.9%
2196			1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627	1,627
2197		-17% ▼
2198
2199
2200		2031 vs 2022
2201
2202
2203
2204		Coal (TWhr)	1,206	1,149	965	773	899	854	726	617	524	446	379	322	274	256	256
2205
2206		% Total	29.9%	27.5%	23.4%	19.3%	21.8%	21.1%	17.5%	14.8%	12.5%	10.6%	8.9%	7.5%	6.4%	5.9%	5.9%
2207			1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206	1,206
2208		-70% ▼
2209
2210
2211		2031 vs 2022
2212
2213
2214		Note: charts show annual trends sized relative to maximum value of each data set
2215
2216
2217		U.S. Low/No-Carbon Energy vs Fossil Fuels (% of Total)
2218
2219		% Green
2220	2017	2017: 36.0%															36.0%	64.0%
2221	2018	2018: 35.4%															35.4%	64.6%
2222	2019	2019: 36.6%															36.6%	63.4%
2223	2020	2020: 38.8%															38.8%	61.2%
2224	2021	2021: 38.8%															38.8%	61.2%
2225	2022	2022: 41.9%															41.9%	58.1%
2226	2023	2023: 43.8%															43.8%	56.2%
2227	2024	2024: 45.6%															45.6%	54.4%
2228	2025	2025: 48.4%															48.4%	51.6%
2229	2026	2026: 52.5%															52.5%	47.5%
2230	2027	2027: 57.8%															57.8%	42.2%
2231	2028	2028: 60.9%															60.9%	39.1%
2232	2029	2029: 62.0%															62.0%	38.0%
2233	2030	2030: 63.9%															63.9%	36.1%
2234	2031	2031: 65.5%															65.5%	34.5%
2235
2236
2237		EV Penetration
2238
2239
2240
2241
2242
2243
2244
2245
2246
2247
2248
2249
2250
2251
2252
2253
2254
2255
2256
2257
2258
2259
2260
2261
2262
2263
2264
2265
2266
2267
2268
2269
2270
2271
2272
2273
2274
2275
2276
2277
2278
2279
2280
2281
2282		U.S. Natural Gas Demand
2283
2284
2285
2286
2287
2288
2289
2290
2291
2292
2293
2294
2295
2296
2297
2298
2299
2300
2301
2302
2303
2304
2305
2306
2307
2308
2309
2310		LNG
2311
2312
2313
2314
2315
2316
2317
2318
2319
2320
2321
2322
2323
2324
2325
2326
2327
2328
2329
2330
2331
2332
2333
2334
2335