2016 Retrocast


1	2016 U.S. House Elections				Forecast			Result
2	2016 U.S. House Elections				D	R		D	R		Correct?	Out Of
3	Polls-Only				3	8		4	7		10	11
4	Polls and Fundamentals (Competitive)				22	36		20	38		57	59
5	Overall				196	239		194	241		433	435
6	Florida's 13th Congressional District				Forecast			Result
7	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
8	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	49.52	45.51	4.01	51.90	48.10	3.81	1	0.20
9	St. Pete Polls	11/6/2016	944	1.10	51	46	5	52	48	3.81	1	1
10	St. Pete Polls	11/1/2016	1066	0.74	48	45	3	52	48	3.81	1	1
11	St. Pete Polls	10/23/2016	1087	0.34	48	45	3	52	48	3.81	1	1
12	Iowa's 1st Congressional District				Forecast			Result
13	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
14	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	40.38	47.87	-7.49	46.08	53.74	-7.66	1	0.17
15	Loras College	11/2/2016	415	0.81	41	47	-6	46	54	-7.66	1	2
16	The Polling Company Inc.	10/30/2016	400	0.39	41	52	-11	46	54	-7.66	1	3
17	Loras College	10/22/2016	368	0.32	38	45	-7	46	54	-7.66	1	1
18	Iowa's 3rd Congressional District				Forecast			Result
19	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
20	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	38.93	44.05	-5.12	39.70	53.40	-13.70	1	8.58
21	Loras College	11/2/2016	417	0.82	39	44	-5	39.7	53.4	-13.7	1	9
22	Loras College	9/21/2016	327	0.02	36	46	-10	39.7	53.4	-13.7	1	4
23	Indiana's 9th Congressional District				Forecast			Result
24	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
25	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	42.23	43.77	-1.54	40.46	54.14	-13.68	1	12.14
26	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	10/18/2016	400	0.22	43	43	0	40.46	54.14	-13.68	0.5	14
27	Public Opinion Strategies	11/2/2016	310	0.74	42	44	-2	40.46	54.14	-13.68	1	12
28	Maine's 2nd Congressional District				Forecast			Result
29	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
30	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	45.52	44.12	1.40	45.2	54.8	-9.6	0	11.00
31	University of New Hampshire	10/22/2016	341	0.43	46	44	2	45.2	54.8	-9.6	0	12
32	University of New Hampshire	9/17/2016	231	0.02	35	45	-10	45.2	54.8	-9.6	1	0
33	SurveyUSA	9/7/2016	387	0.01	45	50	-5	45.2	54.8	-9.6	1	5
34	Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District				Forecast			Result
35	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
36	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	44.58	47.42	-2.83	47.73	48.93	-1.2	1	1.63
37	Singularis Group	10/27/2016	1482	0.48	45	47	-2	47.73	48.93	-1.2	1	1
38	North Star Opinion Research/Ayres, McHenry & Associates	10/23/2016	400	0.34	44	48	-4	47.73	48.93	-1.2	1	3
39	New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District				Forecast			Result
40	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
41	Weighted Polling Average				40.56	33.11	7.44	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	6.08
42	University of New Hampshire	11/5/2016	323	1.36	42	33	9	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	8
43	University of New Hampshire	11/1/2016	219	0.89	40	33	7	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	6
44	University of New Hampshire	10/28/2016	239	0.64	37	33	4	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	3
45	YouGov	10/19/2016	380	0.15	41	37	4	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	3
46	University of New Hampshire	10/14/2016	376	0.21	44	32	12	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	11
47	University of New Hampshire	8/24/2016	185	0.00	48	29	19	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	18
48	University of New Hampshire	7/13/2016	196	0.00	43	37	6	45.79	44.42	1.36	1	5
49	New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District				Forecast			Result
50	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
51	Weighted Polling Average				52.54	32.70	19.84	49.8	45.39	4.41	1	15.43
52	University of New Hampshire	11/5/2016	322	1.36	53	32	21	49.8	45.39	4.41	1	17
53	University of New Hampshire	11/1/2016	221	0.89	55	32	23	49.8	45.39	4.41	1	19
54	University of New Hampshire	10/28/2016	237	0.64	48	33	15	49.8	45.39	4.41	1	11
55	YouGov	10/19/2016	382	0.15	53	42	11	49.8	45.39	4.41	1	7
56	New York's 19th Congressional District				Forecast			Result
57	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
58	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	43.20	45.11	-1.91	45.91	54.02	-8.11	1	6.20
59	Siena College	11/2/2016	605	1.22	42	48	-6	45.91	54.02	-8.11	1	2
60	SurveyUSA	10/29/2016	598	0.65	45	42	3	45.91	54.02	-8.11	0	11
61	Public Policy Polling	10/24/2016	1218	0.37	44	41	3	45.91	54.02	-8.11	0	11
62	South Dakota's At-large Congressional District				Forecast			Result
63	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
64	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	38.39	54.48	-16.09	35.9	64.1	-28.21	1	12.12
65	Nielson Brothers Polling	10/25/2016	600	0.31	41	51	-10	35.9	64.1	-28.21	1	18
66	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	10/19/2016	400	0.24	35	59	-24	35.9	64.1	-28.21	1	4
67	Utah's 4th Congressional District				Forecast			Result
68	Pollster	Date	Sample	Weight	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin	Correct?	Error
69	Weighted Polling Average			2.14	38.93	44.05	-5.12	39.70	53.40	-13.70	1	8.58
70	Dan Jones & Associates	7/28/2016	405	0.00	38	51	-13	41.3	53.8	-12.5	1	0
71	SurveyUSA	6/5/2016	574	0.00	51	45	6	41.3	53.8	-12.5	0	19


1				Outcome		Forecast			Result
2	State	CD	Rating	Result	Correct?	D	R	Margin	D	R	Margin
3	Alaska	AK-AL	Lean R	R Win	1
4	Arizona	AZ-01	Lean D	D Win	1
5	Arizona	AZ-02	Likely R	R Win	1
6	California	CA-07	Lean D	D Win	1
7	California	CA-10	Tilt R	R Win	1
8	California	CA-21	Lean R	R Win	1
9	California	CA-24	Lean D	D Win	1
10	California	CA-25	Tilt R	R Win	1
11	California	CA-52	Solid D	D Win	1
12	Colorado	CO-03	Likely R	R Win	1
13	Colorado	CO-06	Tilt R	R Win	1
14	Florida	FL-02	Solid R	R Win	1
15	Florida	FL-07	Tilt D	D Win	1
16	Florida	FL-10	Solid D	D Win	1
17	Florida	FL-13	Tilt D	D Win	1	49.52	45.51	4.01	51.90	48.10	3.81
18	Florida	FL-18	Tilt R	R Win	1
19	Florida	FL-26	Tilt R	R Win	1
20	Florida	FL-27	Solid R	R Win	1
21	Illinois	IL-10	Tilt D	D Win	1
22	Illinois	IL-12	Likely R	R Win	1
23	Indiana	IN-02	Likely R	R Win	1
24	Indiana	IN-09	Tilt R	R Win	1	42.23	43.77	-1.54	40.46	54.14	-13.68
25	Iowa	IA-01	Lean R	R Win	1	40.38	47.87	-7.49	46.08	53.74	-7.66
26	Iowa	IA-03	Tilt R	R Win	1	38.93	44.05	-5.12	39.70	53.40	-13.70
27	Kansas	KS-03	Lean R	R Win	1
28	Maine	ME-02	Tilt D	R Win	0	45.52	44.12	1.40	45.20	54.80	-9.60
29	Maryland	MD-06	Solid D	D Win	1
30	Michigan	MI-01	Tilt R	R Win	1
31	Michigan	MI-06	Solid R	R Win	1
32	Michigan	MI-07	Lean R	R Win	1
33	Michigan	MI-08	Lean D	D Win	1
34	Minnesota	MN-02	Tilt D	D Win	1
35	Minnesota	MN-03	Lean R	R Win	1
36	Minnesota	MN-08	Lean D	D Win	1
37	Montana	MT-AL	Likely R	R Win	1
38	Nebraska	NE-02	Tilt R	R Win	1	44.58	47.42	-2.83	47.73	48.93	-1.20
39	Nevada	NV-03	Tilt D	D Win	1
40	Nevada	NV-04	Tilt D	D Win	1
41	New Hampshire	NH-01	Lean D	D Win	1	40.56	33.11	7.44	45.79	44.42	1.36
42	New Hampshire	NH-02	Solid D	D Win	1	52.54	32.70	19.84	49.80	45.39	4.41
43	New Jersey	NJ-05	Tilt D	D Win	1
44	New York	NY-01	Lean R	R Win	1
45	New York	NY-03	Lean D	D Win	1
46	New York	NY-19	Tilt R	R Win	1	43.20	45.11	-1.91	45.91	54.02	-8.11
47	New York	NY-21	Likely R	R Win	1
48	New York	NY-22	Tilt R	R Win	1
49	New York	NY-23	Likely R	R Win	1
50	New York	NY-24	Lean R	R Win	1
51	New York	NY-25	Solid D	D Win	1
52	Pennsylvania	PA-06	Solid R	R Win	1
53	Pennsylvania	PA-08	Tilt R	R Win	1
54	Pennsylvania	PA-16	Likely R	R Win	1
55	South Dakota	SD-AL	Likely R	R Win	1	38.39	54.48	-16.09	35.90	64.10	-28.21
56	Texas	TX-23	Tilt D	R Win	0
57	Utah	UT-04	Lean R	R Win	1
58	Virginia	VA-04	Solid D	D Win	1
59	Virginia	VA-05	Lean R	R Win	1
60	Virginia	VA-10	Tilt R	R Win	1
61	Wisconsin	WI-08	Lean R	R Win	1