libdem_manifesto_analysis_jun24


1	Climate emissions review of Lib Dem manifesto
2	https://www.libdems.org.uk/fileadmin/groups/2_Federal_Party/Documents/PolicyPapers/Manifesto_2024/For_a_Fair_Deal_-_Liberal_Democrat_Manifesto_2024.pdf
3
4		Pledges	Analysis	Total Mitgated MTCO2e by ...					Assumptions	Calculation detail
5				2030	2035	2040	2045	2050

6
7	Section	5 Climate Change and Energy
8
9		Make homes warmer and cheaper to heat with a ten-year emergency upgrade programme, starting with free insulation and heat pumps for those on low incomes	Great idea. Bit vague on what they'll insulate. Let's make some guestimates for the consequences NB: the gains might be lower given that most new homes are built with a heatpump	19	62	111	160	210	There are about 30m houses in the UK and 18% of people are described as low income There were 25.2 million dwellings in England as of 31 March 2022 Let's suppose 200,000 per year have been built giving a current total of 25.6m	https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/dwelling-stock-estimates-in-england-2022/dwelling-stock-estimates-england-31-march-2022
10			We have subtracted from this pledge the £6bn already promised in government policy						Poorer people have more people per house so let's say 10% of houses, 3m, are inhabited by low income people.
11			https://www.gov.uk/government/news/families-business-and-industry-to-get-energy-efficiency-support						Assume the 256,000 houses are retrofitted each year for 2025 to 2035
12									We estimate the typical household in England, Scotland and Wales uses 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas in a year:	https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/average-gas-and-electricity-usage
13									The CO2 released by burning natural gas to make heat is 0.21 kg / kWh	https://legacy.winnipeg.ca/finance/findata/matmgt/documents/2012/682-2012/682-2012_appendix_h-wstp_south_end_plant_process_selection_report/appendix%207.pdf
14									Gov forecast for future electricity carbon intensity - hopeully based on current policy not current wishful thinking - use Long-Domestic Marginal value	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
15									Suppose the insulation saves 30% of energy use	0.3
16									But discount £6bn of promised spending which might save 15% across 3m homes	0.15
17									Efficiency improvement net of existing spending plans	0.15
18									Suppose the heat pump is 350% efficient: it converts 1kWh of electricity in 3.5kWh of heat	3.5
19									Assume the old gas boiler is 90% efficient: 1kWh of gas creates 0.9kWh of heat in the home	0.9
20									Therefore after the boiler is replaced by a heat pump 11500 kWh of gas is substituted by electricity kWh	1,981
21									Assume a low-income household uses 2/3rds average energy	0.67
22										Carbon intensity of gas burning kg/kWh	0.5
23										Energy average annual use gas (kWh)	11500
24										Energy low-income average annual use gas (kWh)	7705
25										Year	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049	2050
26										Carbon intensity of UK marginal domestic electricity kg/kWh	0.23	0.2110386554	0.190708786	0.1688661103	0.1453980558	0.1201836733	0.09309301312	0.07144465335	0.05483052188	0.04207993164	0.03229443358	0.0247845089	0.01902098329	0.01459773953	0.01120310113	0.008597870558	0.00659847459	0.006225224673	0.003960163134	0.00304353578	0.002148541927	0.001375745011	0.001420529442	0.001425333793	0.001504737799	0.001541599555	0.001410105594
27										Homes upgraded	0	256,000	512,000	768,000	1,024,000	1,280,000	1,536,000	1,792,000	2,048,000	2,304,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000	2,560,000
28										Emissions from gas boiler in an original house kgCO2	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	3,853	104,018
29										Emissions from heat pump to produce same temperature as gas boiler taking account of improved insulation	387	355	321	284	245	202	157	120	92	71	54	42	32	25	19	14	11	10	7	5	4	2	2	2	3	3	2
30										Emissions saved per house kgCO2	3,465	3,497	3,531	3,568	3,608	3,650	3,696	3,732	3,760	3,782	3,798	3,811	3,820	3,828	3,834	3,838	3,841	3,842	3,846	3,847	3,849	3,850	3,850	3,850	3,850	3,850	3,850
31										Annual CO2e savings MtCO2	0.00	0.90	1.81	2.74	3.69	4.67	5.68	6.69	7.70	8.71	9.72	9.76	9.78	9.80	9.81	9.83	9.83	9.84	9.85	9.85	9.85	9.86	9.86	9.86	9.86	9.86	9.86	210
32
33		ensure that all new homes are zero-carbon.	Will it really be immediate if it will increase later? This will be a tall order but let's see how mouch CO2 would be saved by 2050 compared to business as usual	9	26	52	86	130	A zero-carbon home generates its own energy and uses net-zero energy during its use:	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_carbon_housing
34									This devolved policy probably applies only in England
35									150,000 houses per year are built each year in England:	https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
36									We estimate the typical household in England, Scotland and Wales uses 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas in a year:	https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/average-gas-and-electricity-usage
37									The CO2 released by burning natural gas to make heat is 0.21 kg / kWh	https://legacy.winnipeg.ca/finance/findata/matmgt/documents/2012/682-2012/682-2012_appendix_h-wstp_south_end_plant_process_selection_report/appendix%207.pdf
38									Gov forecast for future electricity carbon intensity - hopeully based on current policy not current wishful thinking - use Long-Domestic Marginal value	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
39										Carbon intensity of burning gas for heat kg/kWh	0.21
40										Energy annual use electric / gas (kWh)	2700	11500
41										Year	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049	2050
42										Carbon intensity of UK marginal domestic electricity kg/kWh	0.23	0.2110386554	0.190708786	0.1688661103	0.1453980558	0.1201836733	0.09309301312	0.07144465335	0.05483052188	0.04207993164	0.03229443358	0.0247845089	0.01902098329	0.01459773953	0.01120310113	0.008597870558	0.00659847459	0.006225224673	0.003960163134	0.00304353578	0.002148541927	0.001375745011	0.001420529442	0.001425333793	0.001504737799	0.001541599555	0.001410105594
43										Cumulative total zero-carbon houses built	0	150,000	300,000	450,000	600,000	750,000	900,000	1,050,000	1,200,000	1,350,000	1,500,000	1,650,000	1,800,000	1,950,000	2,100,000	2,250,000	2,400,000	2,550,000	2,700,000	2,850,000	3,000,000	3,150,000	3,300,000	3,450,000	3,600,000	3,750,000	3,900,000
44										Carbon saved from electicity tCO2 in year	0	85,471	154,474	205,172	235,545	243,372	226,216	202,546	177,651	153,381	130,792	110,415	92,442	76,857	63,522	52,232	42,758	42,861	28,870	23,420	17,403	11,701	12,657	13,277	14,626	15,609	14,848	2,448,117
45										Carbon saved from gas kg tCO2 in year	0	362,250	724,500	1,086,750	1,449,000	1,811,250	2,173,500	2,535,750	2,898,000	3,260,250	3,622,500	3,984,750	4,347,000	4,709,250	5,071,500	5,433,750	5,796,000	6,158,250	6,520,500	6,882,750	7,245,000	7,607,250	7,969,500	8,331,750	8,694,000	9,056,250	9,418,500	127,149,750
46										Annual CO2e savings MtCO2	0	0.45	0.88	1.29	1.68	2.05	2.40	2.74	3.08	3.41	3.75	4.10	4.44	4.79	5.14	5.49	5.84	6.20	6.55	6.91	7.26	7.62	7.98	8.35	8.71	9.07	9.43	130
47
48		Drive a rooftop solar revolution by expanding incentives for households to install solar panels, including a guaranteed fair price for electricity sold back into the grid.	Great idea. Lacking enough info to quantify impact
49
50		Invest in renewable power so that 90% of the UK’s electricity is generated from renewables by 2030.	This is going to happen anyway based on current policies and the existing pipeline of renewable projects	0	0	0	0	0	The carbon intensity of the grid is expected to 0.045 kgCO2/kWh by 2030	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
51									Carbon intensities of different generation systems from:	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
52									Nuclear currently makes up 13% of generation Assume this is the same in 2030	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
53
54									Pick some possible 2030 shares of wind and solar Biasing against solar try to get a lower value But the contribution from gas alone means the LibDem plan can't beat the existing projection		Intensity kgCO2/kWh
55									Proposed share of gas generation in 2023	0.1	0.5	0.05
56									Guessed share of nuclear generation in 2023	0.13	0.005	0.00065
57									Guessed share of solar generation in 2023	0.11	0.058	0.00638
58									Guessed share of offshore wind generation in 2023	0.44	0.00525	0.00231
59									Guessed share of onshore wind generation in 2023	0.22	0.00464	0.0010208
60										Expected carbon intensity if renewables are 90% (weighted average)		0.0603608
61
62		Restore the UK’s role as a global leader on climate change, by returning international development spending to 0.7% of national income, with tackling climate change a key priority for development spending.	Great idea but lacks funding and timescales Not clear whether this means mitigating climate harms vs reducing emissions in developing countries
63
64		Act to meet the Paris Agreement committment to cut emissions by at least 68% on 1990 by 2030.	Great idea. Assume this is already taken into account in the pledges. So no additional gans	0	0	0	0	0
65
66		restoring the requirement that every new car and small van sold from 2030 is zero-emission	This is bringing forward an existing target from 2035 to 2030	0	90	180	270	270	Assumed that without this change current levels of fossil fuel car sales would remain the same for five more years. Each fossil fuel car produced contributes a similar amount of emissions over its lifetime	# https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/uk-total-auto-industry-sales-figures/ total_car_sales_2019 = 2.3e6 # choose a year prior to pandemic percent_electric_2023 = 16.5 percent_fossil_2023 = 100-percent_electric_2023 # https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/uk-transport-co2 emissions_gCO2_per_km = 164 emissions_gCO2_per_mile = emissions_gCO2_per_km * 1.609 # Sunday Times article average_mileage_scrapped_car = 106e3 # Estimates annual_fossil_car_sales = total_car_sales_2019 * percent_fossil_2023 / 100 current_target_year = 2035 pledge_target_year = 2030 years_difference = current_target_year - pledge_target_year total_fossil_cars_not_bought = years_difference * annual_fossil_car_sales total_miles_not_driven_in_fossil_cars = average_mileage_scrapped_car * total_fossil_cars_not_bought total_emissions_avoided_MtCO2 = emissions_gCO2_per_mile * total_miles_not_driven_in_fossil_cars * 1e-9
67									The figure for 2040 comes from assuming 5 less years of driving cars with an average lifespan of 15 years happens before 2040
68
69		investing in active travel and public transport	Great idea but lacks funding and timescales
70
71		Reintroducing requirements for landlords to upgrade the energy efficiency of their properties to EPC C or above by 2028	Rishi Sunak's Conservative administration removed the requirement on existing tenancies to achieve a C-rated Energy Performance Certificate. Now the requirements are for landlords to have an E rating or higher. EPCs are an imperfect metric for decarbonising homes, and the Climate Change Committee has repeatedly recommended they be reviewed (CCC, 2023a).	3	11	19	27	35	CLG, 2023a tells us proportions of all homes in England and Wales (not Scotland or NI) in different EPC bands.
72			Housing is devolved so this policy will apply only to England						The English Housing Survey (EHS, 2023) states that 19% of homes are private rented, and 14% of these (623,000 homes in England) have an EPC rating of E to G. NEED suggests mean gas use per home for EPC grades E and F are 17,300kWh a year, falling to 13,800 for grade D and 11,200 kWh for grade C; while mean electricity use for grades E to F is 5,050kWh, falling to 3,500 for grade D and 3,000 for grade C.
73			If this policy leads to some landlord electing to sell up, the gains may be lower than anticipated
74									Mean gas use for EPC E-F	17300	kWh	Mean elec	5050	kWh
75									Mean gas use for EPC D	13800	kWh	Mean elec	3,500	kWh
76									Mean gas use for EPC C	11200	kWh	Mean elec	3,000	kWh
77									England-Wales homes in Bands D-F	670,320	dwellings
78									Scaling up to England and multiplying by the carbon emissions from gas and electricity savings gives net savings of:
79
80									Gas saving from all E-Fs moving to C	4,088,952,000	kWh
81									Gas saving from all Ds moving to C	2,601,547,173	kWh
82									Gas CO2 saving	1,231,051,848	kgCO2e
83									Elec saving from all E-Fs moving to C	1,374,156,000	kWh
84									Elec saving from all Ds moving to C	500,297,533	kWh
85									Elec CO2 saving	363,643,985	kgCO2e
86
87									Total CO2e	1,594,695,833	kgCO2e
88									Total CO2e	1.59	MtCO2e			Mean saving per home	0.06	tonnes CO2e (saving shared across all homes)
89									Uncertainty range - low estimate	1.28	MtCO2e
90									Uncertainty range - high estimate	1.91	MtCO2e
91
92		Introducing a social tariff for the most vulnerable to provide targeted energy discounts for vulnerable households.	Depending on how this is implemented, it may lead to increased energy use and increased emissions No details published
93
94		Removing the Conservatives’ unnecessary restrictions on new solar and wind power	This is a necessary condition for the switch to 90% renewables which is analysed above
95
96		Maintaining the ban on fracking and introducing a ban on new coal mines.	No fracking is the current policy There are no coal mines planned	0	0	0	0	0
97
98		supporting investment and innovation in tidal and wave power in particular.	Tidal power: good idea but no details; wave power is at best unproven No details published
99
100		Implementing the UK’s G7 pledge to end fossil fuel subsidies	Great idea but until the larger producers in the world follow suit, it's unlikely to have much impact. Unauantifiable							6,400,000,000	https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/8394/reserves-and-resources-2022.pdf
101			Domestic gas & heating oil is taxed at 5% instead of 20% However, it's not clear whether the Lib Dems consider this a subsidy
102
103		Investing in energy storage, including green hydrogen, pumped storage and battery capability.	Great idea but no details
104
105		Expanding the market for climate-friendly products and services with steadily higher criteria in public procurement policy.	Great idea but no details
106
107		Implementing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for high-emission products, protecting UK businesses from unfair competition.	This could be really big: pushing the prices of carbon-intensive imports But without details on what carbon price will be set, no impact assessment can be made
108
109		Reducing emissions from industrial processes by supporting carbon capture and storage and new low-carbon processes for cement and steel production.	Great idea but no details. CCS still not working at scale
110
111	Section	12 Natural Environment
112
113		Plant at least 60 million trees a year, helping to restore woodland habitats, increase the use of sustainable wood in construction, and reach net zero	WARNING: planting trees on UK agricultural land, displaces food production to other countries and is likely to cause deforestation in the Amazon WARNING: if the planted trees are deforested or burn down, then all sequestered carbon is lost Let's suppose that's possible without displacing agriculture	3	9	15	21	27	Suppose about 1,000 per hectare; 100,000 per km2; 60m requires 600km2 A tree sequesters about 20kgCO2 per year Suppose we plant them from 2025-2030 at linear rate	https://www.viessmann.co.uk/en/heating-advice/boilers/how-much-co2-does-tree-absorb.html
114									CO2 removed per year by 60m trees tCO2	1,200,000
115
116		Aiming for the complete elimination of non-recyclable single-use plastics within three years and replacing them with affordable alternatives.	WARNING: plastic helps in avoiding food waste which is a significant proportion of UK emissions Not quantifiable
117
118		Restoring our peatlands as a carbon store, and banning the use of horticultural peat and the routine burning of heather on peatlands.	Great idea. It implies all peatlands but doesn't quantify WARNING: if it gets too hot the peat can dry out and release the sequester CO2 and CH4	29	87	144	202	260	peatlands emitting around 23,100 kt CO2e yr-1 greenhouse gas (GHG) in total. Suppose this policy stops this happening And suppose the loss would continue at this rate until 2050 if not mitigated	https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/uknaturalcapitalforpeatlands/naturalcapitalaccounts
119									Suppose they restore half of them	0.5
120									Emissions per year from peatland which this policy would prevent ktCO2e	23100
121									Suppose the policy was fully implemented by 2030
122									This may be an underestimate as it ignores the extra carbon sequestered by healthy peatland
123
124
125		Creating and restoring habitats like saltmarshes, mudflats and seagrass meadows to guard against coastal flooding and erosion and absorb carbon emissions.	Great idea. Hard to quantify
126
127	Section	16 Transport
128
129		Transform how people travel by creating new cycling and walking networks with a new nationwide active travel strategy.	Great idea. Hard to quantify
130
131		Rolling out far more charging points, including residential on-street points and ultra-fast chargers at service stations.	Great idea but no details Will be required if fossil new sales fuel cars end in 2030
132
133		Supporting new charging points with an upgraded National Grid and a step-change in local grid capacity.	Great idea but no details. Will be required if fossil new sales fuel cars end in 2030
134
135		Cutting VAT on public charging to 5%	The impacts are unclear On the one hand it will encourage more people to switch to EVs On the other hand it will encourage use of EV over public transport
136
137		Supporting rural bus services and encouraging alternatives to conventional bus services where they are not viable, such as on-demand services	Great idea but no details
138
139		Make rail a genuinely convienent, affordable and environmentally-friendly option for both passengers and freight. Including by establishing a ten-year plan for rail electrification	This seems very ambitious but let's see what effect it would have	1.78	7	14	21	28	Total traction diesel consumption was 538 million litres.	https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/1dzb2awz/rail-emissions-2022-23.pdf
140									Carbon intensity of diesel kCO2/litre: 2.64	https://comcar.co.uk/emissions/co2litre/?fueltype=diesel
141									Total annual carbon emissions from diesel trains tCO2	1,420,320
142									Suppse electrification happened linearly to 2035
143
144
145
146
147		Reforming the taxation of international flights to focus on those who fly the most, while reducing costs for ordinary households who take one or two international return flights per year.	This could potentially lead to higher emissions if extra flights by the many infrequent flyers outweigh fewer flights by frequent flyers
148
149		Introducing a new super tax on private jet flights	This is a small overall contribution to UK emissions but may be considered highly relevant in terms of what it says about fairness.	1.5	2.75	4	5.25	6.5	Assume that private flights are immediately reduced by 50%. This may not be realistic but as the overall contribution from private flights is small, the error in this estimate won't have a impact on the grand total	# https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/private-jet-flights-in-the-uk-soar-to-new-heights-analysis/ europe_number_private_flights = 570e3 uk_number_private_flights = 90256 europe_emissions_tCO2_per_year = 3.3e6 # Estimates uk_emissions_tCO2_per_year = europe_emissions_tCO2_per_year * uk_number_private_flights / europe_number_private_flights pc_reduction = 50 emissions_avoided_tCO2_per_year = uk_emissions_tCO2_per_year * pc_reduction / 100 emissions_avoided_by_2050_MtCO2 = 25 * emissions_avoided_tCO2_per_year * 1e-6
150
151		removing the VAT exemptions for private, first-class and business-class flights.	This policy can assessed independently of the frequent/infrequent flyers policy above	13	23	34	44	55	Assume this causes 20% of non-economy passengers to switch to economy in a short space of time.	# https://simpleflying.com/emirates-airbus-a380-seating-configurations-guide/ number_economy_class_seats = 338 number_business_class_seats = 76 number_first_class_seats = 14 number_seats = number_economy_class_seats + number_business_class_seats + number_first_class_seats # https://www.statista.com/statistics/1407316/carbon-footprint-of-air-travel-per-kilometer-by-class-uk/ average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_economy = 134.6 average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_business = 390.4 average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_first = 538.5 average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_non_economy = ( \ number_first_class_seats * average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_first + \ number_business_class_seats * average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_business ) \ / (number_first_class_seats + number_business_class_seats) # Estimates emissions_one_flight_economy = number_economy_class_seats * average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_economy emissions_one_flight_business = number_business_class_seats * average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_business emissions_one_flight_first = number_first_class_seats * average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_first emissions_one_flight_total = emissions_one_flight_economy + emissions_one_flight_business + emissions_one_flight_first ratio_emissions_non_economy_to_total = (emissions_one_flight_total - emissions_one_flight_economy) / emissions_one_flight_total one_passenger_non_economy_to_economy_emissions_ratio = average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_non_economy / \ average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_economy # https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/19/uk-airline-emissions-on-track-to-reach-all-time-high-in-2024 uk_flights_emissions_MtCO2_2019 = 36 uk_non_economy_emissions_MtCO2_per_year = ratio_emissions_non_economy_to_total * uk_flights_emissions_MtCO2_2019 uk_emissions_saving_MtCO2_per_year = uk_non_economy_emissions_MtCO2_per_year * \ (1 - average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_economy /average_international_gCO2e_per_passenger_non_economy) uk_emissions_saving_by_2050_MtCO2_100pc_switch = uk_emissions_saving_MtCO2_per_year * 25 uk_emissions_saving_by_2050_MtCO2_50pc_switch = uk_emissions_saving_by_2050_MtCO2_100pc_switch * 0.2
152
153
154		Placing a moratorium on net airport expansion until a national capacity and emissions management framework is in place, and opposing the expansion of Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton, Stanstead or London City airports and any new airport in the Thames Estuary.	Good idea. Not quantifiable as we don't know what expansions will be proposed
155
156		Banning short domestic flights where a direct rail option taking less than 2.5 hours is available for the same journey, unless planes are alternative-fuelled.	According to the Daily Express domestic flights release 2.7Mt CO2 annually, and 62% of these are between cities linked by rail	10	18	26	34	42	All domestic flights between cities linked by rail cease immediately	# https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1775963/uk-france-short-haul-flights-ban-poll-spt total_emissions_domestic_flight_MtCO2_2019 = 2.7 pc_linked_by_rail = 62 annual_emissions_saving_MtCO2 = total_emissions_domestic_flight_MtCO2_2019 * pc_linked_by_rail / 100 emissions_saving_by_2050_MtCO2 = annual_emissions_saving_MtCO2 * 25
157
158
159		Grand Total Emissions Mitigations to 2030/2040/2050 MtCO2e		89	335	599	871	1,063