labour_manifesto_analysis_jun24


1	Climate emissions review of Labour manifesto
2	https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf
3
4		Pledges	Analysis	Total Mitgated MTCO2e by ...					Assumptions	Calculation detail
5				2030	2035	2040	2045	2050

6
7	Section	KICKSTART ECONOMIC GROWTH
8
9		£1 billion to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture	Good idea. Unquantifiable
10
11		£500 million to support the manufacturing of green hydrogen	Great idea. Unquantifiable
12
13		Labour will support the transition to electric vehicles by accelerating the roll out of charge points	Good idea. Unquantifiable
14
15		restoring the phase-out date of 2030 for new cars with internal combustion engines,	This is bringing forward an existing target from 2035 to 2030	0	90	180	270	270	Assumed that without this change, current levels of fossil fuel car sales would remain the same for five more years. Each fossil fuel car produced contributes a similar amount of emissions over its lifetime.	# https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/uk-total-auto-industry-sales-figures/ total_car_sales_2019 = 2.3e6 # choose a year prior to pandemic percent_electric_2023 = 16.5 percent_fossil_2023 = 100-percent_electric_2023 # https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/uk-transport-co2 emissions_gCO2_per_km = 164 emissions_gCO2_per_mile = emissions_gCO2_per_km * 1.609 # Sunday Times article average_mileage_scrapped_car = 106e3 # Estimates annual_fossil_car_sales = total_car_sales_2019 * percent_fossil_2023 / 100 current_target_year = 2035 pledge_target_year = 2030 years_difference = current_target_year - pledge_target_year total_fossil_cars_not_bought = years_difference * annual_fossil_car_sales total_miles_not_driven_in_fossil_cars = average_mileage_scrapped_car * total_fossil_cars_not_bought total_emissions_avoided_MtCO2 = emissions_gCO2_per_mile * total_miles_not_driven_in_fossil_cars * 1e-9
16									The figure for 2040 comes from assuming 5 less years of driving cars with an average lifespan of 15 years happens before 2040
17
18		and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries.	Good idea. Unquantifiable
19
20		There will be a duty to promote and grow the use of rail freight.	Good idea. Unquantifiable
21
22		new powers for local leaders to franchise local bus services	Good idea. Unquantifiable
23
24	Section	MAKE BRITAIN A CLEAN ENERGY SUPERPOWER
25
26		double onshore wind … by 2030	This pushes ahead of current projections Gains stop at 2040 when the grid is mostly decarbonised under existing projection	38	72	82	82	82	Onshore capacity in 2023 was 15,000MW	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
27									The overall pipeline of onshore wind projects in the UK has increased ... to 37GW today	https://www.renewableuk.com/news/616002/UKs-pipeline-of-onshore-wind-projects-grows-by-12-in-last-12-months-.htm
28									Decarbonisation by 2040: this data shows carbon intensities	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
29									The pipeline includes windfarms still at the planning stage. Grid connection dates can be as far ahead as 2040 Let's assume Labour can speed that up so onshore wind doubles by 2030 when it might otherwise have increased linearly to 37GW in 2040
30									Assume that the additional wind capacity allows us switch off gas power stations
31									Assume a linear incrase to 37GW from 2025 to 2040 in the baseline scenario
32									Assume a linear incrase to 2xcapacity from 2025 to 2030 and then linearly to 37GW at 2040 in the Labour scenario
33									Capacity factor - 1GW windfarm produces 0.38GW electricity	0.38
34									Carbon intensity of gas electricity kgCO2/kWh	0.5		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
35									Carbon intensity of onshore wind electricity kgCO2/kWh	0.00464		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
36										Year	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040
37										Known & Projected capacity MW	15,000	16,294	17,588	18,882	20,176	21,471	22,765	24,059	25,353	26,647	27,941	29,235	30,529	31,824	33,118	34,412	35,706	37,000
38										Projected capacity MW under Labour plan	15,000	16,294	19,286	21,429	23,571	25,714	27,857	30,000	30,700	31,400	32,100	32,800	33,500	34,200	34,900	35,600	36,300	37,000
39										Additional capacity MW		0	1,697	2,546	3,395	4,244	5,092	5,941	5,347	4,753	4,159	3,565	2,971	2,376	1,782	1,188	594	0
40										Total electricity switched from gas to wind MWh		0	5,650,568	8,475,852	11,301,136	14,126,420	16,951,704	19,776,988	17,799,289	15,821,591	13,843,892	11,866,193	9,888,494	7,910,795	5,933,096	3,955,398	1,977,699	0
41										Emissions savings tCO2		0	2,799,065	4,198,598	5,598,131	6,997,663	8,397,196	9,796,729	8,817,056	7,837,383	6,857,710	5,878,037	4,898,364	3,918,692	2,939,019	1,959,346	979,673	0
42
43		triple solar power … by 2030	This pushes ahead of current projections Gains stop at 2035 when the grid is mostly decarbonised under existing projection	39	94	94	94	94	As of the end of March 2024, the UK boasts a total solar capacity of 15.8GW	https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/04/29/uk-solar-power-capacity-rises-in-march/
44			Is there space for all this solar without threatening agricultural production? Yes see:						Pre-application 7GW; application submitted 3.3GW; consent granted 1GW = 11.4GW	https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/pipeline-of-giant-uk-solar-projects-eclipses-11-gw-as-development-booms-79774895
45			https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-solar-power-a-threat-to-uk-farmland/						Decarbonisation by 2035: this data shows carbon intensities https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
46									Grid connection dates can be as far ahead as 2035 Let's assume Labour can speed that up so solar triples by 2030 when it might otherwise have increased linearly to 28GW in 2035
47									Assume that the additional solar capacity allows us switch off gas power stations
48									Assume a linear increase to 28GW from 2025 to 2035 in the baseline scenario
49									Assume a linear increase to 28GW from 2025 to 2030 and then linearly from 2030 at the same rate as the baseline
50									PV panels have a capacity factor of around 10% in the UK climate - 1GW solar farm produces 0.1GW electricity	0.1
51									Carbon intensity of gas electricity kgCO2/kWh	0.5		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
52									UK photovoltaic power systems are currently 58gCO2eq/kWh	0.058		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
53										Year	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
54										Known & Projected capacity MW	15,800	16,836	17,873	18,909	19,945	20,982	22,018	23,055	24,091	25,127	26,164	27,200
55										Projected capacity MW under Labour plan	15,800	21,067	26,333	31,600	36,867	42,133	47,400	48,436	49,473	50,509	51,545	52,582
56										Additional capacity MW	0	4,230	8,461	12,691	16,921	21,152	25,382	25,382	25,382	25,382	25,382	25,382
57										Total electricity switched from gas to solar MWh	0	3,705,745	7,411,491	11,117,236	14,822,982	18,528,727	22,234,473	22,234,473	22,234,473	22,234,473	22,234,473	22,234,473
58										Emissions savings tCO2	0	1,835,678	3,671,356	5,507,034	7,342,712	9,178,390	11,014,068	11,014,068	11,014,068	11,014,068	11,014,068	11,014,068
59
60
61
62
63		quadruple offshore wind by 2030	This pushes ahead of current projections Gains stop at 2040 when the grid is mostly decarbonised under existing projection	83	160	182	182	182	Offshore capacity in 2023 was 15,000MW	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
64									the UK’s pipeline of offshore wind projects has reached 97,944 MW...The pipeline includes projects at every stage of development: operational, under construction, consented or planned.	https://www.renewableuk.com/news/643056/UK-Offshore-Wind-pipeline-nears-100GW-as-Global-pipeline-tops-1.23TW.htm
65									The pipeline includes windfarms still at the planning stage. Grid connection dates can be as far ahead as 2040 Let's assume Labour can speed that up so offshore wind quadruples by 2030 when it might otherwise have increased linearly to x6 in 2040
66									Assume that the additional wind capacity allows us switch off gas power stations
67									Assume a linear increase to 6xcapacity from 2025 to 2040 in the baseline scenario
68									Assume a linear increase to 4xcapacity from 2025 to 2030 and then linearly to 6x at 2040 in the Labour scenario
69									Capacity factor - 1GW windfarm produces 0.38GW electricity	0.38
70									Carbon intensity of gas electricity kgCO2/kWh	0.5		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
71									Carbon intensity of offshore wind electricity kgCO2/kWh	0.00525		https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
72										Year	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040
73										Known & Projected capacity MW	15,000	15,800	24,765	29,647	34,529	36,350	41,488	46,625	51,763	56,900	62,038	67,175	72,313	77,450	82,588	87,725	92,863	98,000
74										Projected capacity MW under Labour plan	15,000	15,800	27,857	34,286	40,714	47,143	53,571	60,000	63,800	67,600	71,400	75,200	79,000	82,800	86,600	90,400	94,200	98,000
75										Additional capacity MW		0	3,092	4,639	6,185	10,793	12,084	13,375	12,038	10,700	9,363	8,025	6,688	5,350	4,013	2,675	1,338	0
76										Total electricity switched from gas to wind MWh		0	10,294,104	15,441,156	20,588,208	35,927,263	40,224,981	44,522,700	40,070,430	35,618,160	31,165,890	26,713,620	22,261,350	17,809,080	13,356,810	8,904,540	4,452,270	0
77										Emissions savings tCO2		0	5,093,008	7,639,512	10,186,016	17,775,013	19,901,310	22,027,606	19,824,845	17,622,085	15,419,324	13,216,563	11,013,803	8,811,042	6,608,282	4,405,521	2,202,761	0
78
79		We will invest in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and marine energy, and ensure we have the long-term energy storage our country needs.	Great ideas. But unquantifiable.
80
81		nuclear power. We will ensure the long-term security of the sector, extending the lifetime of existing plants, and we will get Hinkley Point C over the line.	This will likely be the policy of all main parties So no gain over baseline
82
83
84		New nuclear power stations, such as Sizewell C, and Small Modular Reactors, will play an important role in helping the UK achieve energy security and clean power	Sizewell is already policy. Modular: unquantifiable
85
86
87		We will not issue new licences to explore new [oil & gas] fields	Great idea But until the larger producers in the world follow suit, it's unlikely to have much impact. Unquantifiable
88
89		we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.	No new coal mines are currently proposed Fracking: continues existing moratorium
90
91		Labour will deploy more distributed production capacity through our Local Power Plan. Great British Energy will partner with energy companies, local authorities, and co-operatives to install thousands of clean power projects, through a combination of onshore wind, solar and hydropower projects.	Great idea. Assume this is already taken into account in the targets to expand wind and solar
92
93
94		Labour will work with industry to upgrade our national transmission infrastructure and rewire Britain.	Great idea. Required for increased renewables. Not quantifiable
95
96		Labour will invest an extra £6.6 billion over the next parliament, doubling the existing planned government investment, to upgrade five million homes to cut bills for families.	What energy savings do you get for £1,320 per house?	3		15		27	Let's take a guess that £1,320 will reduce heat loss by 10% in leakier homes Assume deployed linearly over 5 years	0.1
97									Ignore that people might run their homes less cold if the heating bill is lower
98									Let's consider houses with gas boilers
99									We estimate the typical household in England, Scotland and Wales uses 11,500 kWh of gas in a year.	11500	https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/average-gas-and-electricity-usage
100									Emissions from burning gas for heating kgCO2/kWh	0.21	https://www.open.edu/openlearn/nature-environment/energy-buildings/content-section-3.5
101									tCO2 saved per year by insulation per home	0.2415
102
103		We will ensure homes in the private rented sector meet minimum energy efficiency standards by 2030	Great idea. What standards? Unquantifiable. The suspicion is that if Labour meant upgrading to EPC C, they would have said so
104
105		Labour supports the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism	Great idea. Depends on the carbon price set. Unquantifiable
106
107		The Conservatives’ decision to prevent the Bank of England giving due consideration to climate change in its mandates will be reversed.	Good idea. Unquantifiable
108
109		Planting millions of trees and creating new woodlands. Labour will expand nature-rich habitats such as wetlands, peat bogs and forests	Good idea. Unquantifiable
110
111		Labour is committed to reducing waste by moving to a circular economy.	Good idea. Unquantifiable
112
113		Grand Total Emissions Mitigations to 2030/2040/2050 MtCO2e		162	415	552	627	654