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2 | Performance of The Barbell Portfolio | |||||||||||
3 | Returns (%) | |||||||||||
4 | Year | The Barbell Portfolio | S&P 500 | Outperform/ (Underperform) | ||||||||
5 | 2022* | 12% | -6% | 18% | ||||||||
6 | 2023 | 52% | 24% | 28% | ||||||||
7 | 2024 | 41% | 20% | 21% | ||||||||
8 | Since inception | 140% | 40% | 67% | ||||||||
9 | Average return | 35% | 13% | 22% | ||||||||
10 | * Fund inception date on 30 November 2022 | |||||||||||
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1 | ||||||||||||||||||
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2 | The Barbell Portfolio | |||||||||||||||||
3 | Category | Symbol | Stock | Conviction rating | Cost Price ($) | Current Price ($) | Quantity | Cost Value ($) | Mkt Value ($) | Daily % | P/L % | YTD % | Portfolio weight % | Market cap ($ Mil) | Sector | Latest coverage | ||
4 | 1 | Contrarian | META | Meta Platforms Inc | 4 | 208.05 | 567.16 | 63 | 13,107 | 35,731 | 0% | 173% | 64% | 13% | 1,434,810 | Family of Apps, Reality Labs | Link | |
5 | 2 | Contrarian | SE | Sea Ltd | 4 | 50.23 | 95.38 | 324 | 16,273 | 30,903 | 1% | 90% | 151% | 11% | 54,590 | E-commerce, Gaming & Fintech | Link | |
6 | 3 | Contrarian | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 4 | 8.60 | 15.23 | 1,150 | 9,891 | 17,515 | 0% | 77% | 21% | 6% | 43,696 | Payments | Link | |
7 | 4 | Growth | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 4 | 205.23 | 303.13 | 57 | 11,698 | 17,278 | 2% | 48% | 23% | 6% | 74,305 | Endpoint Security | Link | |
8 | 5 | Contrarian | TCEHY | Tencent Holdings ADR | 4 | 37.30 | 53.60 | 280 | 10,444 | 15,008 | 3% | 44% | 45% | 5% | 505,702 | Gaming, cloud, social media | Link | |
9 | 6 | Growth | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 4 | 18.55 | 15.57 | 960 | 17,808 | 14,947 | 14% | -16% | 14% | 5% | 12,628 | ADAS/AV | Link | |
10 | 7 | Contrarian | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 4 | 131.65 | 83.54 | 108 | 14,218 | 9,022 | 1% | -37% | -36% | 3% | 11,287 | PV Inverters | Link | |
11 | 8 | Contrarian | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR | 4 | 82.80 | 97.58 | 100 | 8,280 | 9,758 | 0% | 18% | 32% | 3% | 30,374 | E-commerce, cloud | Link | |
12 | 9 | Growth | ZS | Zscaler Inc | 4 | 171.98 | 182.59 | 60 | 10,319 | 10,955 | 1% | 6% | -1% | 4% | 27,843 | Cloud security company | Link | |
13 | 10 | Growth | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 4 | 77.74 | 135.37 | 78 | 8,162 | 10,559 | 2% | 74% | 80% | 4% | 3,320,624 | AI semiconductor | Link | |
14 | 11 | Contrarian | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | 4 | 121.36 | 165.27 | 60 | 7,282 | 9,916 | 2% | 36% | 18% | 4% | 184,111 | Handset/IoT/Automotive Semi | Link | |
15 | 12 | Contrarian | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 4 | 135.66 | 141.86 | 57 | 7,733 | 8,086 | -2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 229,598 | GPU/CPU | Link | |
16 | 13 | Growth | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 4 | 148.23 | 115.49 | 85 | 12,600 | 9,817 | 1% | -22% | -37% | 3% | 38,712 | Data management/warehousing | Link | |
17 | 14 | Contrarian | FSLR | First Solar Inc | 4 | 150.26 | 204.94 | 35 | 6,010 | 7,173 | 5% | 36% | 36% | 3% | 21,938 | Utility solar | Link | |
18 | 15 | Contrarian | ASML | ASML Holding NV | 4 | 683.10 | 674.73 | 10 | 6,831 | 6,747 | 0% | -1% | -1% | 2% | 250,059 | Semiconductor equipment | ||
19 | 16 | Contrarian | APTV | Aptiv PLC | 4 | 66.72 | 56.37 | 180 | 12,010 | 10,147 | -1% | -16% | -32% | 4% | 14,981 | Automotive supplier | Link | |
20 | 17 | Contrarian | TSLA | Tesla Inc | 4 | 162.28 | 248.98 | 25 | 4,057 | 6,225 | 0% | 53% | 53% | 2% | 780,171 | EVs | Link | |
21 | 18 | Contrarian | MSCI | Msci Inc | 4 | 452.80 | 577.95 | 10 | 4,528 | 5,780 | 1% | 28% | 28% | 2% | 45,456 | Financial data | Link | |
22 | 19 | Contrarian | ENVX | Enovix Corp | 3 | 9.46 | 9.04 | 500 | 4,732 | 4,520 | 0% | -4% | -26% | 2% | 1,592 | Silicon anode Li-ion battery | Link | |
23 | 20 | Contrarian | CRM | Salesforce Inc | 3 | 216.90 | 294.72 | 20 | 4,338 | 5,894 | 1% | 36% | 36% | 2% | 281,752 | Application software | Link | |
24 | 21 | Contrarian | MDB | Mongodb Inc | 3 | 282.90 | 271.85 | 20 | 5,658 | 5,437 | 1% | -4% | -4% | 2% | 20,081 | Document database | ||
25 | 22 | Growth | MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc | 3 | 70.95 | 84.77 | 70 | 4,967 | 5,934 | 6% | 19% | 19% | 2% | 73,428 | Custom ASICs | ||
26 | 23 | Contrarian | S | SentinelOne Inc | 3 | 18.13 | 26.01 | 180 | 3,263 | 4,682 | 1% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 8,181 | Endpoint Security | Link | |
27 | 24 | Growth | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 4 | 169.44 | 197.93 | 22 | 3,728 | 4,354 | 6% | 17% | 9% | 2% | 2,077,386 | E-commerce, cloud | Link | |
28 | 25 | Contrarian | CFLT | Confluent Inc | 3 | 19.94 | 26.22 | 200 | 3,988 | 5,244 | 0% | 31% | 31% | 2% | 8,600 | Data streaming | Link | |
29 | 26 | Contrarian | NEE | NextEra Energy Inc | 3 | 61.82 | 77.35 | 40 | 2,473 | 3,094 | -2% | 25% | 25% | 1% | 158,982 | Utlity and renewables | Link | |
30 | 27 | Contrarian | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc | 3 | 301.54 | 321.17 | 10 | 3,015 | 3,212 | 8% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 39,432 | Sportswear | ||
31 | 28 | Growth | INDI | indie Semiconductor Inc | 3 | 5.76 | 3.49 | 650 | 3,744 | 2,269 | 5% | -39% | -54% | 1% | 689 | Automotive semiconductors | Link | |
32 | 29 | Contrarian | NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 2 | 5.71 | 2.58 | 180 | 1,028 | 464 | 4% | -55% | -66% | 0% | 473 | GaN and SiC | Link | |
33 | Total/average | 222,184 | 280,671 | 2% | 49% | 36% | 100% | 433,507 | ||||||||||
39 | Cash remaining to be deployed (includes sales proceeds) | 19,505 | ||||||||||||||||
40 | ||||||||||||||||||
41 | Total capital in The Barbell Portfolio | 200,000 | ||||||||||||||||
44 | Net profit from stock sale | 18,580 |
1 | |||||||||
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2 | |||||||||
3 | Symbol | Stock | Current Price | Daily | P/E (Google Finance) | 52-week High | 52-week Low | Latest coverage | |
4 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 452.16 | 0.27% | 39x | 453.6 | 309.45 | Link | |
5 | AAPL | Apple Inc | 452.16 | 0.27% | 39x | 453.6 | 309.45 | ||
6 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C | 172.65 | -0.02% | 23x | 193.3 | 128.11 | Link | |
7 | NFLX | Netflix Inc | 756.1 | 0.01% | 43x | 773 | 417.1 | Link | |
8 | NOW | ServiceNow Inc | 943.41 | 1.12% | 147x | 979.78 | 592.48 | Link | |
9 | DDOG | Datadog Inc | 123.26 | -1.74% | 138.61 | 77.81 | Link | ||
11 | RKLB | Rocket Lab USA Inc | 11.42 | 6.73% | 12.09 | 3.47 | Link | ||
13 | MELI | MercadoLibre Inc | 2054.9 | 0.87% | 74x | 2161.73 | 1312.84 | Link | |
17 | ONON | On Holding AG | 46.5 | -1.94% | 85x | 52.8 | 24.15 | Link | |
18 | LVMUY | LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA Unsponsored ADR | 131.7 | -0.67% | 22x | 191.63 | 125 | Link | |
19 | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. | 192.95 | 1.26% | 31x | 212.6 | 89.47 | ||
20 | MU | Micron Technology Inc | 99.73 | 0.08% | 143x | 157.54 | 69.75 | ||
21 | NKE | Nike Inc | 78.06 | 1.21% | 22x | 123.39 | 70.75 | ||
22 | KVYO | Klaviyo Inc | 39.64 | 4.23% | 39.93 | 21.26 | Link | ||
23 | GLBE | Global-E Online Ltd | 38.33 | -0.29% | 42.88 | 27.3 | |||
24 | BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 9.94 | 3.54% | 18.14 | 8.41 | |||
25 | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd | 14.34 | -4.97% | 46x | 15.98 | 7.75 | Link | |
26 | BIDU | Baidu Inc | 90.02 | -1.33% | 12x | 126.23 | 79.69 | Link | |
27 | BX | Blackstone Inc | 168.14 | 0.23% | 58x | 175.94 | 96.15 | ||
28 | APO | Apollo Global Management Ord Shs | 141 | -1.58% | 147.04 | 82.3 | |||
29 | ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 136.46 | 1.24% | 19x | 170.1 | 110.4 | Link | |
30 | PLD | Prologis Inc | 113.4 | 0.41% | 34x | 137.52 | 101.11 | ||
31 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 2.09 | 6.63% | 6.96 | 1.6 | |||
32 |
1 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | The Price Target Report | ||||||||||||
3 | The Barbell Portfolio | Entry Price ($) | Target Price ($) | Potential upside (%) | |||||||||
4 | Category | Symbol | Stock | Current Stock Price | Recommended Entry Price | Discount to IV | Intrinsic Value (IV) | 1-yr Price Target (PT) | 3-yr Price Target (PT) | Today (IV) | 1-year PT | 3-year PT | |
5 | Growth | INDI | indie Semiconductor Inc | 3.49 | 4.20 | -40% | 7.0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 101% | 46% | 129% | |
6 | Contrarian | SE | Sea Ltd | 95.38 | 73.60 | -20% | 92 | 104 | 156 | -4% | 9% | 64% | |
8 | Value | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR | 97.58 | 98.70 | -30% | 141 | 135 | 175 | 44% | 38% | 79% | |
9 | Value | TCEHY | Tencent Holdings ADR | 53.6 | 38.88 | -20% | 49 | 59 | 74 | -9% | 10% | 38% | |
10 | Contrarian | ENVX | Enovix Corp | 9.04 | 10.92 | -30% | 16 | 18 | 24 | 73% | 97% | 163% | |
11 | Contrarian | META | Meta Platforms Inc | 567.16 | 466.40 | -20% | 583 | 618 | 836 | 3% | 9% | 47% | |
13 | Growth | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 303.13 | 258.40 | -20% | 323 | 360 | 457 | 7% | 19% | 51% | |
14 | Contrarian | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 83.54 | 97.60 | -20% | 122 | 97 | 128 | 46% | 16% | 53% | |
15 | Contrarian | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 15.23 | 12.16 | -20% | 15 | 18 | 23 | 0% | 18% | 53% | |
17 | Contrarian | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | 165.27 | 151.20 | -20% | 189 | 227 | 263 | 14% | 37% | 59% | |
18 | Contrarian | S | SentinelOne Inc | 26.01 | 23.24 | -20% | 29 | 32 | 38 | 12% | 21% | 45% | |
19 | Growth | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 15.57 | 15.40 | -30% | 22 | 21 | 31 | 41% | 35% | 99% | |
21 | Contrarian | NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 2.58 | 2.31 | -30% | 3.3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 28% | 32% | 109% | |
22 | Contrarian | NEE | NextEra Energy Inc | 77.35 | 76.00 | -20% | 95 | 94 | 111 | 23% | 22% | 44% | |
24 | Contrarian | APTV | Aptiv PLC | 56.37 | 89.60 | -20% | 112 | 115 | 157 | 99% | 104% | 179% | |
25 | Growth | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 115.49 | 128.80 | -20% | 161 | 169 | 237 | 39% | 46% | 105% | |
26 | Growth | TSLA | Tesla | 248.98 | 207.20 | -20% | 259 | 229 | 349 | 4% | -8% | 40% | |
27 | Growth | FSLR | First Solar Inc | 204.94 | 192.80 | -20% | 241 | 273 | 414 | 18% | 33% | 102% | |
28 | Growth | ZS | Zscaler Inc | 182.59 | 168.80 | -20% | 211 | 199 | 296 | 16% | 9% | 62% | |
29 | Growth | MSCI | Msci Inc | 577.95 | 501.60 | -20% | 627 | 678 | 859 | 8% | 17% | 49% | |
30 | Contrarian | CRM | Salesforce Inc | 294.72 | 257.60 | -20% | 322 | 341 | 443 | 9% | 16% | 50% | |
31 | Growth | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc | 321.17 | 340.80 | -20% | 426 | 427 | 554 | 33% | 33% | 72% | |
32 | Contrarian | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 197.93 | 160.00 | -20% | 200 | 236 | 292 | 1% | 19% | 48% | |
33 | Growth | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 135.37 | 92.00 | -20% | 115 | 142 | 167 | -15% | 5% | 23% | |
34 | Growth | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 141.86 | 165.60 | -20% | 207 | 247 | 339 | 46% | 74% | 139% | |
35 | Growth | MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc | 84.77 | 79.20 | -20% | 99 | 111 | 141 | 17% | 31% | 66% | |
36 | Contrarian | MDB | Mongodb Inc | 271.85 | 282.40 | -20% | 353 | 382 | 541 | 30% | 41% | 99% | |
37 | Contrarian | CFLT | Confluent Inc | 26.22 | 20.24 | -20% | 25 | 26 | 34 | -4% | -2% | 30% | |
38 | Contrarian | ASML | ASML Holding NV | 674.73 | 752.80 | -20% | 941 | 1040 | 1420 | 39% | 54% | 110% | |
39 | |||||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||
41 | The Price Target Report | ||||||||||||
42 | The Watchlist Portfolio | Entry Price ($) | Target Price ($) | Potential upside (%) | |||||||||
43 | Category | Symbol | Stock | Current Stock Price | Recommended Entry Price | Discount to IV | Intrinsic Value (IV) | 1-yr Price Target (PT) | 3-yr Price Target (PT) | Today (IV) | 1-year PT | 3-year PT | |
44 | Growth | MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 410.37 | 359.20 | -20% | 449 | 501 | 673 | 9% | 22% | 64% | |
45 | Contrarian | AAPL | Apple Inc | 222.91 | 149.60 | -20% | 187 | 225 | 260 | -16% | 1% | 17% | |
46 | Growth | GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C | 172.65 | 152.00 | -20% | 190 | 197 | 254 | 10% | 14% | 47% | |
47 | Contrarian | NFLX | Netflix Inc | 756.1 | 512.80 | -20% | 641 | 778 | 907 | -15% | 3% | 20% | |
48 | Growth | NOW | ServiceNow Inc | 943.41 | 737.60 | -20% | 922 | 956 | 1240 | -2% | 1% | 31% | |
49 | Contrarian | DDOG | Datadog Inc | 123.26 | 98.40 | -20% | 123 | 138 | 182 | 0% | 12% | 48% | |
51 | Growth | RKLB | Rocket Lab | 11.42 | 4.68 | -40% | 7.8 | 7.3 | 12 | -32% | -36% | 5% | |
53 | Growth | MELI | MercadoLibre Inc | 2054.9 | 1000.00 | -20% | 1250 | 1400 | 2300 | -39% | -32% | 12% | |
57 | Growth | ONON | On Holding AG | 46.5 | 20.09 | -30% | 28.7 | 30 | 47 | -38% | -35% | 1% | |
58 | Contrarian | LVMUY | LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA Unsponsored ADR | 131.7 | 132.00 | -20% | 165 | 198 | 232 | 25% | 50% | 76% | |
59 | Contrarian | TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. | 192.95 | 157.60 | -20% | 197 | 220 | 280 | 2% | 14% | 45% | |
60 | Growth | MU | Micron Technology Inc | 99.73 | 76.80 | -20% | 96 | 109 | 144 | -4% | 9% | 44% | |
61 | Contrarian | NKE | Nike Inc | 78.06 | 87.20 | -20% | 109 | 112 | 150 | 40% | 43% | 92% | |
62 | Growth | KVYO | Klaviyo Inc | 39.64 | 18.40 | -20% | 23 | 26 | 37 | -42% | -34% | -7% | |
63 | Growth | GLBE | Global-E Online Ltd | 38.33 | 24.71 | -30% | 35.3 | 38.1 | 55.6 | -8% | -1% | 45% | |
64 | Growth | BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 9.94 | 6.12 | -40% | 10.2 | 9.9 | 13.3 | 3% | 0% | 34% | |
65 | Value | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd | 14.34 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
66 | Value | BIDU | Baidu Inc | 90.02 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
67 | Value | BX | Blackstone Inc | 168.14 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
68 | Value | APO | Apollo Global Management Ord Shs | 141 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
69 | Growth | ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 136.46 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
70 | Contrarian | PLD | Prologis Inc | 113.4 | To be revealed in deep dive article | ||||||||
71 | Growth | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 2.09 | 3.90 | -40% | 6.5 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 211% | 230% | 388% | |
74 |
1 | |||||
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2 | |||||
3 | Top buys | Ticker | Brief rationale | ||
4 | 1 | Confluent | CFLT | Trough EV/Revenue multiple amongst peer group and go-to-market changes brings attractive risk/reward to the table. | |
5 | 2 | Marvell Technology | MRVL | I am the most constructive on MRVL in many quarters given all end markets are now trending up. | |
6 | 3 | MongoDB | MDB | Signs of a turnaround with a better 2Q and strong 2H guidance leaves me positive on MDB. | |
7 | 4 | Zscaler | ZS | Irrational fears about competition have made valuation attractive and lowered expectations. | |
9 | 5 | Snowflake | SNOW | Expectation reset after Frank Slootman left as CEO, with a renewed focus on AI and new products. | |
11 | 6 | MSCI | MSCI | Quality company at attractive valuation after non-fundamental event affected 1Q24. | |
14 | 7 | Salesforce | CRM | More than 5% free cash flow yield for a quality name like Salesforce brings an attractive contrarian angle to the name | |
15 | 8 | Lululemon | LULU | Fears of US slowdown and competition brought valuation to a trough, with likely reacceleration in 2H24 |
1 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Transactions | |||||||||
3 | Column 1 | Date | Symbol | Stock | Quantity (+/-) | Price | Total | Column 2 | ||
4 | 1 | 30/11/22 | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR | 100 | 82.80 | 8,280 | |||
5 | 2 | 30/11/22 | TCEHY | Tencent Holdings ADR | 280 | 37.30 | 10,444 | |||
6 | 3 | 28/12/22 | BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 230 | 17.30 | 3,979 | |||
7 | 4 | 28/12/22 | INDI | indie Semiconductor Inc | 650 | 5.76 | 3,744 | |||
8 | 5 | 28/12/22 | SE | Sea Ltd | 230 | 48.30 | 11,109 | |||
9 | 6 | 28/12/22 | UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | 280 | 12.03 | 3,368 | |||
10 | 7 | 28/12/22 | FREY | FREYR Battery Inc | 200 | 8.05 | 1,610 | |||
11 | 8 | 28/12/22 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 110 | 11.53 | 1,268 | |||
12 | 9 | 5/1/23 | ENVX | Enovix Corp | 300 | 6.55 | 1,965 | |||
13 | 10 | 2/2/23 | META | Meta Platforms Inc | 60 | 148.34 | 8,900 | |||
14 | 11 | 22/2/23 | ENVX | Enovix Corp | 100 | 7.99 | 799 | |||
15 | 12 | 2/3/23 | ORGN | Origin Materials Inc | 200 | 4.64 | 928 | |||
16 | 13 | 31/3/23 | SCHW | Charles Schwab Corporation Common Stock | 90 | 51.15 | 4,604 | |||
17 | 14 | 14/4/23 | VLN | Valens Semiconductor Ltd | 300 | 2.57 | 771 | |||
18 | 15 | 17/4/23 | SCHW | Charles Schwab Corporation Common Stock | 30 | 50.02 | 1,501 | |||
19 | 16 | 8/5/23 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 10 | 128.10 | 1,281 | |||
20 | 17 | 8/5/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 8 | 159.60 | 1,277 | |||
21 | 18 | 8/5/23 | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 80 | 15.81 | 1,265 | |||
22 | 19 | 18/5/23 | INVZ | Innoviz Technologies Ltd | 500 | 2.54 | 1,270 | |||
23 | 20 | 18/5/23 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 200 | 7.72 | 1,544 | |||
24 | 21 | 19/5/23 | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | 30 | 105.67 | 3,170 | |||
25 | 22 | 1/6/23 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 15 | 143.21 | 2,148 | |||
26 | 23 | 2/6/23 | S | SentinelOne Inc | 100 | 13.02 | 1,302 | |||
27 | 24 | 28/6/23 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 15 | 143.25 | 2,149 | |||
28 | 25 | 28/6/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 30 | 159.50 | 4,785 | |||
29 | 26 | 21/7/23 | UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | -60 | 56.48 | -3,389 | |||
30 | 27 | 22/7/23 | ENVX | Enovix Corp | -100 | 19.90 | -1,990 | |||
31 | 28 | 28/7/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 30 | 147.70 | 4,431 | |||
32 | 29 | 28/7/23 | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 100 | 37.75 | 3,775 | |||
33 | 30 | 11/8/23 | ORGN | Origin Materials Inc | 1,000 | 1.21 | 1,210 | |||
34 | 31 | 18/8/23 | LAZR | Luminar Technologies Inc | 200 | 5.57 | 1,114 | |||
35 | 32 | 17/8/23 | SE | Sea Ltd | 100 | 39.03 | 3,903 | |||
36 | 33 | 18/8/23 | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 320 | 9.31 | 2,979 | |||
37 | 34 | 25/8/23 | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 300 | 8.20 | 2,460 | |||
38 | 35 | 18/9/23 | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 250 | 7.14 | 1,785 | |||
39 | 36 | 18/9/23 | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 70 | 37.21 | 2,605 | |||
40 | 37 | 28/9/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 10 | 117.17 | 1,172 | |||
41 | 38 | 28/9/23 | SE | Sea Ltd | 30 | 42.04 | 1,261 | |||
42 | 39 | 28/9/23 | ADYEY | Adyen Unsponsored Netherl 100 ADR Representing 1 Ord Shs | 200 | 7.01 | 1,402 | |||
43 | 40 | 28/9/23 | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | 6 | 109.66 | 658 | |||
44 | 41 | 28/9/23 | LAZR | Luminar Technologies Inc | 160 | 4.28 | 685 | |||
45 | 42 | 28/9/23 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 100 | 7.34 | 734 | |||
46 | 43 | 28/9/23 | FREY | FREYR Battery Inc | 120 | 4.94 | 593 | |||
47 | 44 | 19/10/23 | NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 180 | 5.71 | 1,028 | |||
48 | 45 | 20/10/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 15 | 98.05 | 1,471 | |||
49 | 46 | 1/11/23 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 15 | 72.20 | 1,083 | |||
50 | 47 | 2/11/23 | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | 30 | 115.12 | 3,454 | |||
51 | 48 | 21/11/23 | UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | -160 | 25.32 | -4,051 | |||
52 | 49 | 28/11/23 | FREY | FREYR Battery Inc | -320 | 1.48 | -474 | |||
53 | 50 | 4/1/24 | NEE | NextEra Energy Inc | 40 | 61.82 | 2,473 | |||
54 | 51 | 5/1/24 | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 120 | 16.00 | 1,920 | |||
55 | 52 | 12/1/24 | AEHR | Aehr Test Systems | 90 | 17.70 | 1,593 | |||
56 | 53 | 1/2/24 | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 70 | 16.00 | 1,120 | |||
57 | 54 | 6/2/24 | APTV | Aptiv PLC | 50 | 82.37 | 4,119 | |||
58 | 55 | 22/2/24 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 90 | 75.31 | 6,778 | |||
59 | 56 | 28/2/24 | FSLR | First Solar Inc | 40 | 150.26 | 6,010 | |||
60 | 57 | 29/2/24 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 40 | 182.05 | 7,282 | |||
61 | 58 | 1/3/24 | BE | Bloom Energy Corp | -230 | 9.02 | -2,075 | |||
62 | 59 | 1/3/24 | ORGN | Origin Materials Inc | -1,200 | 0.57 | -684 | |||
63 | 60 | 6/3/24 | VLN | Valens Semiconductor Ltd | -300 | 2.21 | -663 | |||
64 | 61 | 15/3/24 | TSLA | Tesla Inc | 25 | 162.28 | 4,057 | |||
65 | 62 | 2/4/24 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | -410 | 3.33 | -1,365 | |||
66 | 63 | 9/4/24 | ZS | Zscaler Inc | 30 | 185.25 | 5,558 | |||
67 | 64 | 24/4/24 | MSCI | Msci Inc | 10 | 452.80 | 4,528 | |||
68 | 65 | 24/4/24 | ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | 20 | 107.98 | 2,160 | |||
69 | 66 | 25/4/24 | META | Meta Platforms Inc | 10 | 420.65 | 4,207 | |||
70 | 67 | 6/5/24 | AEHR | Aehr Test Systems | -90 | 11.80 | -1,062 | |||
71 | 68 | 6/5/24 | UPST | Upstart Holdings Inc | -60 | 25.70 | -1,542 | |||
72 | 69 | 6/5/24 | SCHW | Charles Schwab Corporation Common Stock | -120 | 76.61 | -9,193 | |||
73 | 70 | 6/5/24 | SE | Sea Ltd | -36 | 76.61 | -2,758 | |||
74 | 71 | 6/5/24 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | -4 | 315.34 | -1,261 | -362.523 | ||
75 | 72 | 6/5/24 | META | Meta Platforms Inc | -7 | 464.08 | -3,249 | -578.4 | ||
76 | 73 | 21/5/24 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | -20 | 94.69 | -1,894 | -544.3 | ||
77 | 74 | 24/5/24 | LULU | Lululemon Athletica Inc | 10 | 301.54 | 3,015 | -951.92 | ||
78 | 75 | 30/5/24 | CRM | Salesforce Inc | 20 | 216.90 | 4,338 | -387.58 | ||
79 | 76 | 12/6/24 | INVZ | Innoviz Technologies Ltd | -500 | 1.04 | -520 | -2210.18 | ||
80 | 77 | 12/6/24 | LAZR | Luminar Technologies Inc | -360 | 1.50 | -540 | -688.36 | ||
81 | 78 | 17/6/24 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 15 | 126.25 | 1,894 | -1019.16 | ||
82 | 79 | 21/6/24 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | -7 | 127.10 | -890 | |||
83 | 80 | 21/6/24 | QCOM | Qualcomm Inc | -6 | 211.52 | -1,269 | |||
84 | 81 | 21/6/24 | FSLR | First Solar Inc | -5 | 259.12 | -1,296 | |||
85 | 82 | 21/6/24 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | -4 | 381.23 | -1,525 | |||
86 | 83 | 19/7/24 | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 12 | 181.10 | 2,173 | 0.77% | ||
87 | 84 | 19/7/24 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 5 | 295.00 | 1,475 | 0.53% | ||
88 | 85 | 19/7/24 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 15 | 153.98 | 2,310 | 0.82% | ||
89 | 86 | 20/7/24 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 30 | 131.49 | 3,945 | |||
90 | 87 | 6/8/24 | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | 15 | 92.30 | 1,385 | |||
91 | 88 | 6/8/24 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 12 | 123.20 | 1,478 | |||
92 | 89 | 6/8/24 | AMZN | Amazon.com Inc | 10 | 155.45 | 1,555 | |||
93 | 90 | 7/8/24 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 20 | 232.25 | 4,645 | |||
94 | 91 | 8/8/24 | CRWD | Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | 20 | 232.25 | 4,645 | |||
95 | 92 | 15/8/24 | MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc | 600 | 13.98 | 8,388 | |||
96 | 93 | 23/8/24 | SNOW | Snowflake Inc | 30 | 114.13 | 3,424 | |||
97 | 94 | 29/8/24 | ENVX | Enovix Corp | 200 | 9.84 | 1,968 | |||
98 | 95 | 29/8/24 | S | SentinelOne Inc | 80 | 24.51 | 1,961 | |||
99 | 96 | 3/9/24 | MRVL | Marvell Technology Inc | 70 | 70.95 | 4,967 | |||
100 | 97 | 4/9/24 | ZS | Zscaler Inc | 30 | 158.70 | 4,761 | |||
101 | 98 | 9/9/24 | MDB | Mongodb Inc | 20 | 282.90 | 5,658 | |||
102 | 99 | 18/9/24 | APTV | Aptiv PLC | 40 | 70.21 | 2,808 | |||
103 | 100 | 9/10/24 | CFLT | Confluent Inc | 200 | 19.94 | 3,988 | |||
104 | 101 | 16/10/24 | ASML | ASML Holding NV | 10 | 683.10 | 6,831 | |||
105 | 102 | 1/11/24 | APTV | Aptiv PLC | 90 | 56.48 | 5,083 | |||
106 | ||||||||||
107 | As of 9 aug 24 | |||||||||
108 | Sell transactions total | -41,689 | ||||||||
109 | Profit | 22,185 | ||||||||
110 | Upstart | 5,614 | ||||||||
111 | Enovix | 1,335 | ||||||||
112 | 3,089 | |||||||||
113 | 1,019 | |||||||||
114 | 3,811 | |||||||||
115 | 2,210 | |||||||||
116 | 3,927 | |||||||||
117 | 635 | |||||||||
118 | 544 | |||||||||
119 | Losses | -3,605 | ||||||||
120 | FREYR Battery | -1,136 | ||||||||
121 | -190.44 | |||||||||
122 | -526 | |||||||||
123 | -108 | |||||||||
124 | -218.1 | |||||||||
125 | -531 | |||||||||
126 | -750 | |||||||||
127 | -145 |
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6 | Conviction rating | 4 | Ticker | SE | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Recommended entry price | 73.60 | Current price | 95.38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 1-Year Price Target | 104.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 3-Year Price Target | 156.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Company name | Sea Limited | Deep dive research | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Industry | E-commerce, Gaming, Fintech | Type | Date | Report | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
15 | Market capitalization ($ million) | 54,590 | Deep dive | 13/1/23 | Stock Idea 2: Sea Limited (A Deep Dive - Part 1) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Founded | 2009 | Deep dive | 20/1/23 | Stock Idea 2: Sea Limited (A Deep Dive - Part 2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | Main competitors | Lazada, Tokopedia, TikTok | Deep dive | 27/1/23 | Stock Idea 2: Sea Limited (A Deep Dive - Part 3) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Founder-led/Owner-operator? | Yes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Founder holding % | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | NTM P/E | 20x | Earnings review | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | Net cash | Yes | Type | Date | Report | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 52-week high | 101.93 | 4Q22 | 13/3/23 | Sea Limited 4Q22: Defying All Odds | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 52-week low | 34.35 | 1Q23 | 17/5/23 | Sea Limited 1Q23: Executing Well Towards Profitable Growth As E-Commerce And Fintech Shines | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Beta | 1.52 | 2Q23 | 17/8/23 | Sea Limited 2Q23: Investing For The Long-Term | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Return on Equity | 15% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Model assumptions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | Revenue (5-year CAGR) | 12% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | EPS (5-year CAGR) | 27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | Terminal multiple | 20x | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | Discount rate | 14% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
48 |
1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Scoring system: | |||||
3 | Yes | 5 | ||||
4 | Somewhat yes | 2.5 | ||||
5 | No | 0 | ||||
6 | ||||||
7 | ||||||
8 | Business model | Answer | Comments | |||
9 | 1 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | Yes | Diversification in gaming, e-commerce and fintech business, with leadership positions in gaming and e-commerce. | |
10 | 2 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | Yes | Capital expenditures made up 7% of revenues on average over last 3 years. Capital expenditures include investment in servers, computer hardware and software, and leasehold improvements. | |
11 | 3 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | No | No recurring or predictable revenues given it is affected by many factors. | |
12 | 4 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | Yes | The company can easily scale the business by leasing more warehouses, investing in more servers etc. | |
13 | Management | Answer | Comments | |||
14 | 5 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | Yes | Forrest Li is Sea Limited's founder and has served as the chairman of the company's CEO since inception in May 2009. | |
15 | 6 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | Yes | Forrest Li owns 18% of Sea Limited | |
16 | 7 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | Yes | Share incentive plan for employees and directors | |
17 | 8 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | Yes | Forrest Li has been running the company since inception, growing Garena into a sizable gaming business and Shopee to become the largest in its core markets (SEA and Taiwan) | |
18 | 9 | Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | Yes | Management has been forthcoming in their plans. For example: Exiting non-core markets (1H22), focus on profitability (2H22), reinvesting into business to face competitive threats (2Q23). | |
19 | 10 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | Yes | Most of the management team joined Sea Limited when it was founded. CEO/COO/CFO/President of Garena has been with company since 2009, 2010, 2010, 2009 respectively. | |
20 | 11 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Management has shown signs of being prudent with capital, not just in its focus on profitability and sustainability in 2H22, but also when it made the decision to reverse its plans to expand into new regions when the macro backdrop changed. | |
21 | 12 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | No | I think this has the potential to be yes in 1 to 3 years time when the company refocuses its efforts on profitability, but due to the near-term need for investment in Shopee, I do not see this in the very near-term. | |
22 | Growth | Answer | Comments | |||
23 | 13 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | Yes | Penetration of e-commerce and fintech in core markets of Southeast Asia and Taiwan remains low and the market continues to grow. | |
24 | 14 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | Yes | The rise of Garena's Free Fire and Shopee in core markets demonstrate the strong track record for expansion. | |
25 | 15 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | Yes | Garena (in-house game development, third party game publishing, invest in Free Fire), Shopee (Increase mind share, engagement and loyalty), SeaMoney (Continue to grow products and digital bank) | |
26 | 16 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | Yes | The company has a strong focus on "self-sufficiency". | |
27 | 17 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | Yes | These levers include improving economises of scale, reducing sales and marketing expenses (promotions and discounts), reducing G&A (HQ and hiring) | |
28 | 18 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | Yes | Sea Limited focuses on organic growth (Garena, Shopee, SeaMoney) | |
29 | 19 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Acquisition was complementary to organic growth to supplement capabilities (Bank BDE in Indonesia, Phoenix Labs for Garena). Phoenix Labs was a curious acquisition since it was spun off later. | |
30 | Financials | Answer | Comments | |||
31 | 20 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | Yes | Net cash of $1.1 billion as of 2Q23 | |
32 | 21 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | Yes | Gross margins at 47% as of 2Q23 | |
33 | 22 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | Somewhat yes | 9% operating profit margin and 10% net profit margins as of 2Q23 | |
34 | 23 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | Yes | $794 million in free cash flows generated in 1H23 | |
35 | 24 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | Yes | From 1H22 to 1H23, gross margins improved from 39% to 47% operating margins went from -23% to 7%, and net profit margins went from -26% to 7%. | |
36 | 25 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | Yes | No need for equity given net cash position and generating positive FCF. | |
37 | 26 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | Yes | Return on equity of 15% expected | |
38 | Competitive moat | Answer | Comments | |||
39 | 27 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | Yes | Garena (Partners, more than 2,000 global developers), Shopee (Scale, success in gamifying e-commerce, marketing campaigns, huge ecosystem of buyerrs and sellers), Sea Money (Leverage on user base from Shopee, one of few to be granted digital bank license, "an everything app") | |
40 | 28 | Are the competitive advantages not easily replicable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | The scale, ecosystem and partnerships formed by Sea Limited across businesses make it somewhat difficult to replicate its competitive advantages. | |
41 | 29 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | Yes | Yes, the company continues to invest in Garena, Shopee and SeaMoney, improving engagement, increasing innovation and expanding the product and feature portfolio. | |
42 | 30 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | Yes | In 2022, when Southeast Asia's total gross merchandise volume (GMV) was $99.5 billion. Shopee took up nearly half of the total with a GMV of $47.9 billion. Lazada was second but only had half of Shopee’s GMV. | |
43 | Industry | Answer | Comments | |||
44 | 31 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Because of the highly competition nature of the industry, only players backed by established parents or players with an existing large user base can compete meaningfully in the e-commerce industry. Similarly, for the gaming business has somewhat high barriers to entry due to the need for partnerships and developer talent. | |
45 | 32 | Is the industry free from intense competitive pressures? | 5 | No | The e-commerce industry faces intense competitive pressures. Shopee competes with the likes of Lazada, Tokopedia and more recently, TikTok Shop. | |
46 | 33 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | Yes | There are secular tailwinds, especially for e-commerce and fintech, in Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Brazil. | |
47 | 34 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While the industry is generally profitable, there are examples from China which suggests that there is the possibility of price wars if there is irrational competition. | |
48 | Risks | Answer | Comments | |||
49 | 35 | Is the company free from customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | Yes | No individual customer accounted for more than 10% of net revenues for the years ended December 31, 2020, 2021 and 2022. No individual third-party game developer, third-party logistics services provider or other third-party business partner accounted for more than 10% ofnet cost of revenue for the years ended December 31, 2020, 2021 and 2022. | |
50 | 36 | Is the company free from the risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | No | There are risks that other formats may gain popularity. | |
51 | 37 | Is the company free from geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | No | Unfortunately, Garena's Free Fire was banned in India due to geopolitical reasons despite Sea Limited being a Singapore based company. | |
52 | 38 | Is the company free from cyclical risks? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Because of the diversification of the business, the gaming and e-commerce business can help offset their own sector cyclical downturns. | |
53 | 39 | Is the company free from huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | No | Spending in gaming, e-commerce and fintech may come off strongly if there is a negative macroeconomic event. | |
54 | Valuation | Answer | Comments | |||
55 | 40 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | Yes | Company is trading at undemanding valuations given long runway for growth, improving profitability and strong competitive positions. | |
56 | Overall score | |||||
57 | Score out of 200 | 200 | 153 | |||
58 | Score out of 100 | 76 | ||||
59 | ||||||
60 | Count: | |||||
61 | Yes | 27 | ||||
62 | Somewhat yes | 7 | ||||
63 | No | 6 |
1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Ticker | BABA | |||||||
3 | Current price | 97.58 | |||||||
4 | |||||||||
5 | Company name | Alibaba Group | Deep dive research | ||||||
6 | |||||||||
7 | Industry | E-commerce, Cloud, Fintech, Local Services, Logistics | Type | Date | Report | ||||
8 | |||||||||
9 | Market capitalization ($ million) | 32,710 | Update | 3/4/23 | Alibaba: Reorganization Unlocks Significant Shareholder Value | ||||
10 | |||||||||
11 | Founded | 1999 | Deep dive | 7/4/23 | Stock Idea 7: Alibaba (A Deep Dive - Part 1) | ||||
12 | |||||||||
13 | Main competitors | JD, PDD, Tencent, Meituan, Baidu | Deep dive | 5/10/23 | Stock Idea 7: Alibaba (A Deep Dive - Part 2) | ||||
14 | |||||||||
15 | Founder-led/Owner-operator? | No | Update | 12/7/23 | Alibaba: Ant Update, June Quarter Preview, Jack Ma's Message, Amongst Others | ||||
16 | |||||||||
17 | Founder holding % | Not Applicable | |||||||
18 | |||||||||
19 | NTM P/E | 8x | Earnings review | ||||||
20 | |||||||||
21 | Net cash | Yes | Type | Date | Report | ||||
22 | |||||||||
23 | 52-week high | 117.82 | FY4Q23 | 22/5/23 | Alibaba: Significant Discount To Sum-Of-The-Parts Valuation Not Warranted | ||||
24 | |||||||||
25 | 52-week low | 66.63 | FY1Q24 | 25/8/23 | Alibaba: FY1Q24 Review | ||||
26 | |||||||||
27 | Beta | 0.54 | |||||||
28 | |||||||||
29 | Return on Equity | 13% | |||||||
30 | |||||||||
31 | |||||||||
32 | |||||||||
33 | Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) valuation assumptions | ||||||||
34 | |||||||||
35 | Revenue (5-year CAGR) | 9% | |||||||
36 | |||||||||
37 | EPS (5-year CAGR) | 15% | |||||||
38 | |||||||||
39 | Taobao Tmall Group (P/E) | 10x | |||||||
40 | |||||||||
41 | Cloud Intelligence Group (P/S) | 3.0x | |||||||
42 | |||||||||
43 | Local Services Group (P/S) | 2.5x | |||||||
44 | |||||||||
45 | International Digital Commerce Group (P/S) | 2.5x | |||||||
46 | |||||||||
47 | Cainiao Smart Logistics Group (P/S) | 2.0x | |||||||
48 | |||||||||
49 | Digital Media and Entertainment Group (P/S) | .5x | |||||||
50 |
1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Scoring system: | |||||
3 | Yes | 5 | ||||
4 | Somewhat yes | 2.5 | ||||
5 | No | 0 | ||||
6 | ||||||
7 | ||||||
8 | Business model | Answer | Comments | |||
9 | 1 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has a solid business model, focusing on customers for its e-commerce segment and digital transformation of enterprises in the cloud segment, with strong leadership in both. | |
10 | 2 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba operates an asset light business model and on average, capital expenditures made up 5% of revenues. | |
11 | 3 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Cloud revenues are sticky, while e-commerce revenues are not. | |
12 | 4 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has a scalable platform | |
13 | Management | Answer | Comments | |||
14 | 5 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has 18 co-founders. Eddie Wu (CEO), Trudy Dai (CEO of Tmall and Taobao), Jane Jiang, (Chief People Officer), are some of the co-founders of Alibaba managing the company | |
15 | 6 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | Somewhat yes | Eddie Wu owns $370 million worth of shares, although it makes up a small percentage of the company | |
16 | 7 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has an equity incentive plan since 2014 | |
17 | 8 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has a strong culture of hiring talent, retaining them and putting them in the top jobs | |
18 | 9 | Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | Yes | I have been covering Alibaba for the longest time and they have been honest with the public markets | |
19 | 10 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | No | Alibaba has a culture of changing its management team when they are not performing. Jack Ma was CEO until 2019, Daniel Zhang was CEO until 2023 and Eddie Wu replaced Daniel Zhang in 2023. While Jack Ma was the longest CEO of Alibaba, in the last 4 years, there were 3 changes to the CEO position. CFO Toby Xu and CTO Wu Zeming has been in the position since 2022. However, I am not worried because of the amount of talent they have in the company. | |
20 | 11 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | Yes | Managers at Alibaba has been excellent capital allocators, looking to put capital into its businesses for growth, carrying out stock buybacks, and enhancing shareholder value. | |
21 | 12 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | Somewhat yes | ROIC has periods when they are higher or lower than WACC | |
22 | Growth | Answer | Comments | |||
23 | 13 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has multiple businesses that have a long runway, international commerce, cloud, local services, amongst others. | |
24 | 14 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has demonstrated strength across key industries of e-commerce and cloud and expanded faster than the market. | |
25 | 15 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba continues to invest in e-commerce, growing its user base and increasing monetization from the huge user base. | |
26 | 16 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba is growing profitability given its huge net cash position and free cash flow generation machine. | |
27 | 17 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has demonstrated very well how it can improve operational efficiencies in its business when it needs to. | |
28 | 18 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has shown strong focus on organic growth, with its Tmall and Taobao business growing organically | |
29 | 19 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has been successful in acquisitions, including that of Lazada, Ele.me, Youkou, controlling interest in Cainiao, all of which has been accretive to the company | |
30 | Financials | Answer | Comments | |||
31 | 20 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | Yes | Net cash of $67 billion or 32% of its market cap as of 2Q23 | |
32 | 21 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Gross margins at 39% as of 1H23 | |
33 | 22 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | Yes | 23% operating profit margin and 9% net profit margins as of 1H23 | |
34 | 23 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | Yes | $26 billion in free cash flows generated in last 1 year, or 12% free cash flow yield | |
35 | 24 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba has been focused on improving operating efficiency, turning many businesses margins positive and improving on profitability while doing so. | |
36 | 25 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | Yes | No need for equity given net cash position and generating positive FCF. | |
37 | 26 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | Yes | Return on equity of 13% | |
38 | Competitive moat | Answer | Comments | |||
39 | 27 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba is like what Mohnish Pabrai call a "Spawner", a company which is capable of spawning related and unrelated businesses. Not many companies have the DNA to do so, and most of them are the mega caps that we know today like Amazon, Tencent etc. The competitive advantage of Alibaba include its huge user base (e-commerce), its strong technology leadership (cloud), and its strong ecosystem of businesses. | |
40 | 28 | Are the competitive advantages not easily replicable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | The huge user base, technology leadership in cloud and strong ecosystem of businesses are not easily replicable by competitors | |
41 | 29 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba continues to invest in its businesses, and innovate to cater to the needs of its customers. | |
42 | 30 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba continues to be the market leader in both e-commerce and cloud, and the job here is to maintain market share. | |
43 | Industry | Answer | Comments | |||
44 | 31 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | Somewhat yes | To a certain extent, the e-commerce industry has low barriers to entry given that anyone can build an e-commerce platform, but the difficulty comes from the ability to attract customers into the platform. The cloud industry in general has high barriers to entry. | |
45 | 32 | Is the industry free from intense competitive pressures? | 5 | Somewhat yes | The e-commerce industry has traditionally had periods of intense competition in China, while the cloud market has more rational competition. | |
46 | 33 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | Yes | E-commerce and cloud continue to enjoy solid tailwinds for growth | |
47 | 34 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | As a result of periods of intense competition in the e-commerce segment, there are times of lower profitability, but in general, the industry should be profitable if rational. | |
48 | Risks | Answer | Comments | |||
49 | 35 | Is the company free from customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba's businesses, including the e-commerce and cloud businesses, have a diversified customer base. In addition, Alibaba has a diversified supplier base, with its own in-house capabilities playing a key role including its logistics business (Cainiao). | |
50 | 36 | Is the company free from the risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | No | Alibaba is exposed to changes in technology and thus need to invest in its business | |
51 | 37 | Is the company free from geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | No | Alibaba is exposed to geopolitical tensions and regulatory pressures | |
52 | 38 | Is the company free from cyclical risks? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While Alibaba is exposed to cyclicality of the consumer segment, it has many other businesses that provides diversification for the overall group | |
53 | 39 | Is the company free from huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | No | Alibaba is exposed to weak macroeconomic risks | |
54 | Valuation | Answer | Comments | |||
55 | 40 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | Yes | Alibaba is undervalued based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation basis | |
56 | Overall score | |||||
57 | Score out of 200 | 200 | 158 | |||
58 | Score out of 100 | 79 | ||||
59 | ||||||
60 | Count: | |||||
61 | Yes | 27 | ||||
62 | Somewhat yes | 9 | ||||
63 | No | 4 |
1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Ticker | ADYEY | ||||||
3 | Current price | 15.23 | ||||||
4 | ||||||||
5 | Company name | Adyen | Deep dive research | |||||
6 | ||||||||
7 | Industry | Payments | Type | Date (Last updated) | Report | |||
8 | ||||||||
9 | Market capitalization ($ million) | 43,696 | Deep dive | 5/10/23 | Stock Idea 17: Adyen (A Deep Dive) | |||
10 | ||||||||
11 | Founded | 2006 | Channel check | 25/8/23 | Adyen: Channel Checks | |||
12 | ||||||||
13 | Main competitors | Stripe, Braintree (PayPal) | Channel check | 19/9/23 | Adyen: Extensive Channel Checks (Differentiation, Value Proposition, Pricing, Braintree, NPS) | |||
14 | ||||||||
15 | Founder-led/Owner-operator? | Yes | ||||||
16 | ||||||||
17 | Founder holding % | 3% | Earnings review | |||||
18 | ||||||||
19 | NTM P/E | 28x | Type | Date (Last updated) | Report | |||
20 | ||||||||
21 | Net cash | Yes | 1H23 | 21/8/23 | Adyen: 1H23 Review (Changes In Intrinsic Value And Price Targets) | |||
22 | ||||||||
23 | 52-week high | 17.27 | 3Q23 | 22/11/23 | Adyen: 2023 Investor Day And Business Update | |||
24 | ||||||||
25 | 52-week low | 6.99 | ||||||
26 | ||||||||
27 | Beta | 1.99 | ||||||
28 | ||||||||
29 | ||||||||
30 | ||||||||
31 | Model assumptions | |||||||
32 | ||||||||
33 | Revenue (5-year CAGR) | 24% | ||||||
34 | ||||||||
35 | EPS (5-year CAGR) | 27% | ||||||
36 | ||||||||
37 | Return on Equity | 23% | ||||||
38 | ||||||||
39 | Terminal multiple | 25x | ||||||
40 | ||||||||
41 | Discount rate | 10% | ||||||
42 |
1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Scoring system: | |||||
3 | Yes | 5 | ||||
4 | Somewhat yes | 2.5 | ||||
5 | No | 0 | ||||
6 | ||||||
7 | ||||||
8 | Business model | Answer | Comments | |||
9 | 1 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | Yes | High return on equity business based a differentiated single platform, which also enables it to have low costs. | |
10 | 2 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | Yes | Adyen operates an asset light business model and on average, capital expenditures made up 5% of revenues. | |
11 | 3 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While revenues are based on transactions, customers sign contracts with Adyen and this business is largely quite sticky. | |
12 | 4 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | Yes | Highly scalable single platform: Adyen just needs to hire more talent to scale up. | |
13 | Management | Answer | Comments | |||
14 | 5 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | Yes | Pieter van der Does is the cofounder and CEO of Adyen | |
15 | 6 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | Yes | Pieter van der Does owns 3% of Adyen | |
16 | 7 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | Yes | Adyen has a share incentive plan for directors and employees | |
17 | 8 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | Yes | The team has grown Adyen significantly, evidence of their strong competence in scaling up the business and growing it. | |
18 | 9 | Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | Yes | Management has been honest about their intentions to invest in the business for the long-term, to focus on product differentiation rather than a price war, amongst others. | |
19 | 10 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | Yes | Pieter van der Does has been with Adyen since inception, while Ingo Uytdehaage, co-CEO has been with Adyen since 2011, CCO Roelant Prins has been with Adyen since 2007 | |
20 | 11 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | Yes | The managers have been excellent capital allocators, prudently managing Adyen such that it does not require any external funding and operating Adyen at such high ROICs consistently. | |
21 | 12 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | Yes | ROIC has consistently been higher than WACC since listing. | |
22 | Growth | Answer | Comments | |||
23 | 13 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | Yes | Adyen is a disruptor within the payments space, where legacy vendors still make up more than 80% of the market. | |
24 | 14 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has been a market share gainer since listing, growing faster than the industry over the past few years. | |
25 | 15 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has a clear strategy to grow with its customers and expand to new customers. | |
26 | 16 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | Yes | Adyen did not need to raise capital given the asset light and highly profitable nature of its business. | |
27 | 17 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | Yes | The levers of expansion include: Economies of scale, normalizing investments in technology and talent. | |
28 | 18 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has shown an exceptional focus on growing the business organically | |
29 | 19 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has an exceptional focus on organic growth and building its capabilities in-house rather than acquire | |
30 | Financials | Answer | Comments | |||
31 | 20 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | Yes | Net cash of €6.4 billion as of 2Q23 | |
32 | 21 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | Yes | Gross margins at 87% as of 1H23 | |
33 | 22 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | Yes | 33% operating profit margin and 33% net profit margins as of 1H23 | |
34 | 23 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | Yes | €247 million in free cash flows generated in 1H23 | |
35 | 24 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | Yes | As the accelerated pace of investments and hiring is expected to slow in 2024, I expect margins to expand considerably. | |
36 | 25 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | Yes | No need for equity given net cash position and generating positive FCF. | |
37 | 26 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | Yes | Return on equity of 23% | |
38 | Competitive moat | Answer | Comments | |||
39 | 27 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | Yes | Adyen is focused on product differentation while competitors are focused more on low cost solutions. While Adyen could compete on costs, its main differentiation lies in the technology and product differentiation it is able to offer. | |
40 | 28 | Are the competitive advantages not easily replicable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | The investment in technology and talent is necessary and not all companies without the right culture can achieve this. | |
41 | 29 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | Yes | Adyen continues to invest aggressively in the people necessary to grow the business and thus, grow its competitive advantage. | |
42 | 30 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | Yes | Adyen continues to gain share, especially from legacy vendors. | |
43 | Industry | Answer | Comments | |||
44 | 31 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | Yes | While the barriers of entry can be low, to get to where Adyen is today, I would argue that there are significant investment needs to get to the product feature level that is on par with Adyen. | |
45 | 32 | Is the industry free from intense competitive pressures? | 5 | Somewhat yes | With the exception of the US market where complexity is low, Adyen has not seen intense competitive pressures in the key markets it operates in | |
46 | 33 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | Yes | There continues to be strong secular tailwinds for the payments market as cashless transactions continue to rise | |
47 | 34 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | Yes | The industry has generally been profitable although there are some players choosing to sacrifice margins as they are playing a different strategy. | |
48 | Risks | Answer | Comments | |||
49 | 35 | Is the company free from customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has low customer and banking partner concentration risk. No single customers that on an individual level accounted for more than 10% of the total revenue. | |
50 | 36 | Is the company free from the risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | No | Adyen needs to continue to innovate in a fast changing and competitive payments industry | |
51 | 37 | Is the company free from geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | Yes | Adyen has steered clear of geopolitical and regulatory risks | |
52 | 38 | Is the company free from cyclical risks? | 5 | No | Given Adyen is in the payments business, despite the business being sticky, at the end of the day, it is still subhect to cyclical fluctuations. | |
53 | 39 | Is the company free from huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | No | Settlement and processing fees are paid by transaction and if macroeconomic risks were to affect transaction volume, Adyen would be affected | |
54 | Valuation | Answer | Comments | |||
55 | 40 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | Yes | Given the growth and quality profile of Adyen, the company is trading at an undemanding valuation. | |
56 | Overall score | |||||
57 | Score out of 200 | 200 | 178 | |||
58 | Score out of 100 | 89 | ||||
59 | Count: | |||||
60 | Yes | 34 | ||||
61 | Somewhat yes | 3 | ||||
62 | No | 3 |
1 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Ticker | CRWD | ||||||
3 | Current price | 303.13 | ||||||
4 | ||||||||
5 | Company name | CrowdStrike | Deep dive research | |||||
6 | ||||||||
7 | Industry | Cybersecurity | Type | Date (Last updated) | Report | |||
8 | ||||||||
9 | Market capitalization ($ million) | 74,305 | Deep dive | 10/3/23 | CrowdStrike: Ready To Buy This Cybersecurity Leader On Pullbacks | |||
10 | ||||||||
11 | Founded | 2011 | Channel check | 21/3/23 | Microsoft's Cybersecurity Business | |||
12 | ||||||||
13 | Main competitors | Microsoft, SentinelOne, legacy vendors | Deep dive | 1/6/23 | CrowdStrike: An Opportunity To Strike | |||
14 | ||||||||
15 | Founder-led/Owner-operator? | Yes | ||||||
16 | ||||||||
17 | Founder holding % | 5% | Earnings review | |||||
18 | ||||||||
19 | NTM P/E | 46x | Type | Date (Last updated) | Report | |||
20 | ||||||||
21 | Net cash | Yes | FY4Q23 | 10/3/23 | CrowdStrike: Ready To Buy This Cybersecurity Leader On Pullbacks | |||
22 | ||||||||
23 | 52-week high | 398.3 | FY1Q24 | 1/6/23 | CrowdStrike: An Opportunity To Strike | |||
24 | ||||||||
25 | 52-week low | 178.35 | FY2Q24 | 12/9/23 | CrowdStrike: Differentiating Itself As A Leader In Cybersecurity | |||
26 | ||||||||
27 | Beta | 1.1 | ||||||
28 | ||||||||
29 | Return on Equity | 27% | ||||||
30 | ||||||||
31 | ||||||||
32 | ||||||||
33 | Model assumptions | |||||||
34 | ||||||||
35 | Revenue (5-year CAGR) | 23% | ||||||
36 | ||||||||
37 | EPS (5-year CAGR) | 28% | ||||||
38 | ||||||||
39 | Terminal multiple | 40x | ||||||
40 | ||||||||
41 | Discount rate | 10% | ||||||
42 |
1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Scoring system: | |||||
3 | Yes | 5 | ||||
4 | Somewhat yes | 2.5 | ||||
5 | No | 0 | ||||
6 | ||||||
7 | ||||||
8 | Business model | Answer | Comments | |||
9 | 1 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike is well positioned within the cybersecurity industry to gain share from legacy vendors, while doing so in an efficient and profitable manner. | |
10 | 2 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has an asset light business as it does not require heavy capital spending to grow. | |
11 | 3 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | Yes | Revenues are recurring in nature givensubscription revenues form a large majority of its business | |
12 | 4 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | Yes | Its cloud-native Falcon platform is highly scalable. | |
13 | Management | Answer | Comments | |||
14 | 5 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | Yes | George Kurtz is a co-founder and CEO of CrowdStrike | |
15 | 6 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | Yes | George Kurtz owns 5% of the company | |
16 | 7 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | Yes | The 2019 Equity Incentive Plan is active and it includes Performance-based Stock Units | |
17 | 8 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | Yes | The current management team is highly competent in not just growing the business, expanding the opportunity and doing so sustainably. | |
18 | 9 | Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | Yes | Management has been transparent and honest thus far, having no issues with integrity. | |
19 | 10 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | Yes | George Kurtz has been in the CEO seat since founding, President Michael Sentonas has been with CrowdStrike since 2016, CFO Burt Podbere has been with CrowdStrike since 2015, Chief Security Officer Shawn Henry has been with CrowdStrike since 2012. | |
20 | 11 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | Yes | The management team has been excellent capital allocators, and its focus on cash flows has resulted in low use of debt and a strong net cash position. The stock price return of more than 180% since listing is testament of that. | |
21 | 12 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | Somewhat yes | CrowdStrike has just turned profitable this quarter and it is expected to generate ROIC that is more than WACC in the near-term. | |
22 | Growth | Answer | Comments | |||
23 | 13 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has a long runway in the cybersecurity market, with newer segments expanding market opportunities further. | |
24 | 14 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has seen market share gain relative to the industry as its strategy for expansion has proven to be effective. | |
25 | 15 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | Yes | In its latest Fal.Con 2023, CrowdStrike shared its long-term plans to reach $10 billion in ARR through its core and emerging segments. | |
26 | 16 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike is not just growing strongly, but also profitably | |
27 | 17 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has multiple levers for margin expansion, including growing economies of scale, improving operating efficiencies, and more. | |
28 | 18 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | Yes | While CrowdStrike has done acquisitions, the main growth pillar continues to be organic growth. | |
29 | 19 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has acquired multiple companies (Reposify, Bionic.AI, Humio) to complement its existing capabilities. | |
30 | Financials | Answer | Comments | |||
31 | 20 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | Yes | Net cash of $2.3 billion as of 2Q23 | |
32 | 21 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | Yes | Gross margins at 76% as of 1H23 | |
33 | 22 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | Yes | 20% operating profit margin and 23% net profit margins expected for 3Q23 | |
34 | 23 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | Yes | $748 million in free cash flows generated in last 1 year | |
35 | 24 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has been improving operating efficiencies, while gaining economies of scale, resulting in strong profitability and cash flows. | |
36 | 25 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | Yes | No need for equity given net cash position and generating positive FCF. | |
37 | 26 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | Yes | Return on equity of 27% | |
38 | Competitive moat | Answer | Comments | |||
39 | 27 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike's technology is regarded as best-in-class, with its cloud-native Falcon platform being a key differentiator. In addition, CrowdStrike has strong financials relative to other fast growing competitors, a robust partner ecosystem and strong brand recognition. Lastly, CrowdStrike is gaining a data advantage with the large amount of data its platform processes each day. | |
40 | 28 | Are the competitive advantages not easily replicable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While competitors with the necessary resources can technically enter the market and compete, CrowdStrike is differentiating itself as it is gaining a scale and data advantage over peers that are just starting out. | |
41 | 29 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike continues to gain a data advantage over peers given the market consolidation and it also continues to invest heavily in its business (R&D makes up 27% of revenues in FY2023) and continue to innovate to grow its competitive advantage. | |
42 | 30 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike is a clear market share gainer in the industry. | |
43 | Industry | Answer | Comments | |||
44 | 31 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | Somewhat yes | As mentioned above, while competitors with the necessary resources can technically enter the market and compete, CrowdStrike is currently in such a leading position in terms of size, having a large talent pool and data advantage that it has a relatively high "implied" barrier to entry. | |
45 | 32 | Is the industry free from intense competitive pressures? | 5 | Somewhat yes | The cybersecurity market has a high level of competition, but in the current macroeconomic landscape, the industry is consolidating vendors, resulting in a favorable environment for those in which customers are consolidating with, like CrowdStrike. | |
46 | 33 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike is riding multiple growth tailwinds in fast growing segments in cybersecurity like cloud secuirty, amongst others. | |
47 | 34 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While there are players focused on growth, players that have gained sufficient scale can be profitable. | |
48 | Risks | Answer | Comments | |||
49 | 35 | Is the company free from customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | Yes | No material customer or supplier concentration risk | |
50 | 36 | Is the company free from the risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | No | CrowdStrike has been able to gain market share as a result of innovation, but there are risks of obsolescene and technology risks given how rapidly the cybersecurity space is moving and evolving. | |
51 | 37 | Is the company free from geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | Yes | CrowdStrike has no material geopolitcal or regulatory risks | |
52 | 38 | Is the company free from cyclical risks? | 5 | Somewhat yes | CrowdStrike has been shielded from weakness in the cybersecurity market as it has been a key beneficiary of the consolidation trend. | |
53 | 39 | Is the company free from huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Cybersecurity budgets tend to be more resilient against macroeconomic weakness as it is seen as an essential spend | |
54 | Valuation | Answer | Comments | |||
55 | 40 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Given the strong competitive position, financials and fundamentals of CrowdStrike, the company is rarely trading at a deep discount to its intrinsic value. | |
56 | Overall score | |||||
57 | Score out of 200 | 200 | 175 | |||
58 | Score out of 100 | 88 | ||||
59 | Count: | |||||
60 | Yes | 31 | ||||
61 | Somewhat yes | 8 | ||||
62 | No | 1 |
1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Ticker | ENPH | |||||||
3 | Current price | 83.54 | |||||||
4 | |||||||||
5 | Company name | Enphase Energy | Deep dive research | ||||||
6 | |||||||||
7 | Industry | Solar Microinverters | Type | Date | Report | ||||
8 | |||||||||
9 | Market capitalization ($ million) | 11,287 | Deep dive | 12/5/23 | Stock Idea 10: Enphase (Sell-Off Presents Opportunity To Buy Quality Name) | ||||
10 | |||||||||
11 | Founded | 2006 | |||||||
12 | |||||||||
13 | Main competitors | SolarEdge | |||||||
14 | |||||||||
15 | Founder-led/Owner-operator? | No | |||||||
16 | |||||||||
17 | Founder holding % | Not Applicable | |||||||
18 | |||||||||
19 | NTM P/E | 20x | Earnings review | ||||||
20 | |||||||||
21 | Net cash | Yes | Type | Date | Report | ||||
22 | |||||||||
23 | 52-week high | 141.59 | 2Q23 | 28/7/23 | Enphase Energy: 2Q23 Review | ||||
24 | |||||||||
25 | 52-week low | 73.49 | |||||||
26 | |||||||||
27 | Beta | 1.72 | |||||||
28 | |||||||||
29 | Return on Equity | 63% | |||||||
30 | |||||||||
31 | |||||||||
32 | |||||||||
33 | Model assumptions | ||||||||
34 | |||||||||
35 | Revenue (5-year CAGR) | 17% | |||||||
36 | |||||||||
37 | EPS (5-year CAGR) | 22% | |||||||
38 | |||||||||
39 | Terminal multiple | 25x | |||||||
40 | |||||||||
41 | Discount rate | 11% | |||||||
42 |
1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Scoring system: | |||||
3 | Yes | 5 | ||||
4 | Somewhat yes | 2.5 | ||||
5 | No | 0 | ||||
6 | ||||||
7 | ||||||
8 | Business model | Answer | Comments | |||
9 | 1 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has not just managed to be a leader in the microinverter market, but do so in an asset light manner relative to competitor (SolarEdge), and do so in a highly profitable manner. | |
10 | 2 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has an asset light business model as it makes use of contract manufacturers instead of requiring high capital expenditures to build factories and facilities. | |
11 | 3 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | No | While there are subscription revenues within the business, the majority of the business includes the sale of products and are thus not recurring in nature | |
12 | 4 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | Yes | Highly scalable due to low need for capital expenditures to expand. | |
13 | Management | Answer | Comments | |||
14 | 5 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | Somewhat yes | While the CEO joined in 2017 and is technically not a co-founder, I answered somewhat yes here because co-founder Raghu Belur is still the CPO of the company and in the management team. | |
15 | 6 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | Yes | Badri Kothandaraman (CEO), owns 1.5% of the company, worth $263 million. | |
16 | 7 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | Yes | The 2021 Equity Incentive Plan aims to align employees and executives with shareholder interests. | |
17 | 8 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | Yes | I argue yes because the current management team that has been in place since 2017 has led to tremendous growth and profitability for the company in the period they have been with the company. | |
18 | 9 | Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | Yes | Yes, management has been honest and transparent with what is happening in the industry and the company. | |
19 | 10 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | Yes | Badri Kothandaraman (CEO), Mandy Yang (CFO), Dave Ranhoff (CCO), Raghu Belur (co-founder/CPO) has been with Enphase since 2017, 2018, 2017 and 2006 respectively. | |
20 | 11 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | Yes | I have mentioned this in the deep dive, but the management team has a strong capital allocation strategy, buying back shares if the share price is below intrinsic value. | |
21 | 12 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has an average ROIC of 35% in the last 4 years, compared to its WACC of 12% | |
22 | Growth | Answer | Comments | |||
23 | 13 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has a total serviceable market of $23 billion, including opportunities outside of the US, opportunities outside of microinverters, amongst others. | |
24 | 14 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has demonstrated a strong track record of growing its business in the last 6 years. | |
25 | 15 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has multiple levers for growth, including international opportunities, market opportunities outside of microinverters, as well as continued expansion in the US microinverter market. | |
26 | 16 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | Yes | Yes, the company is growing in a highly profitable manner. | |
27 | 17 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | Yes | Yes, the levers for margin expansion include improving the product mix, improving logistics, IRA benefits, cost reductions, economies benefits | |
28 | 18 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | Yes | The emphasis has been on organic growth and the company has been excellent at growing organically thus far. | |
29 | 19 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | Yes | With acquisition, these has been to complement or add to capabilities that it currently lacks (ClipperCreek: EV charging, GreenCom Networks: IoT software solutions) | |
30 | Financials | Answer | Comments | |||
31 | 20 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | Yes | Net cash of $480 million as of 2Q23 | |
32 | 21 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | Yes | Gross margins at 46% as of 2Q23 | |
33 | 22 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | Yes | 24% operating profit margin and 22% net profit margins as of 2Q23 | |
34 | 23 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | Yes | $865 million in free cash flows generated in last 1 year | |
35 | 24 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | Yes | Improving product mix, improving logistics, IRA benefits, cost reductions, economies benefit to drive margin expansion | |
36 | 25 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | Yes | No need for equity given net cash position and generating positive FCF. | |
37 | 26 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | Yes | Return on equity of 63% | |
38 | Competitive moat | Answer | Comments | |||
39 | 27 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has a product differentiation advantage as a result of its enhanced features and technology leadership in the microinverter market. Along with its low capital expenditure requirements and highly profitable business due to the duopoly market structure, this has enabled Enphase Energy to generate significant cash flows to reinvest in the business or acquire complementary businesses. | |
40 | 28 | Are the competitive advantages not easily replicable? | 5 | Somewhat yes | Enphase Energy has built a strong market share position of 48% and with its current competitive position and continued investment in its business, it will not be easy for competitors to catch up. | |
41 | 29 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy has been relentless in its R&D efforts and it has been paying off with new and enhanced products, features, and this provides additional product differentiation for the company. | |
42 | 30 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | Yes | 48% market share in a duopoly market structure with SolarEdge. | |
43 | Industry | Answer | Comments | |||
44 | 31 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | Somewhat yes | When talking about the microinverter market, given the duopoly situation with Enphase Energy and SolarEdge, the duopoly structure has made it difficult for others to enter and compete meaningfully. | |
45 | 32 | Is the industry free from intense competitive pressures? | 5 | Yes | As Enphase Energy is operating in a duopoly with SolarEdge, there has been minimal competitive pressures as the two players command the lion share of the market. | |
46 | 33 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | Yes | The solar penetration in the US and globally remains low and this brings strong industry tailwinds for the microinverter market. | |
47 | 34 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | Yes | The microinverter industry has been profitable as a result of a duopoly structure. | |
48 | Risks | Answer | Comments | |||
49 | 35 | Is the company free from customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | No | Enphase Energy relies on a small number of contract manufacturers. Flex, Salcomp and Sunwoda assemble and test our IQ Microinverter, ACM products, IQ Battery storage systems and IQ Gateway products. | |
50 | 36 | Is the company free from the risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | No | Enphase Energy needs to continue to innovate and bring incremental differentiation relative to competitors. | |
51 | 37 | Is the company free from geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy does not have material regulatory or geopolitical risks | |
52 | 38 | Is the company free from cyclical risks? | 5 | No | Enphase Energy can be particularly affected by the cyclicality of the solar industry, and one headwind include high interest rates, which leads to lower solar installation. | |
53 | 39 | Is the company free from huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | No | If the macroeconomic backdrop were to weaken, residential solar installations will not be immune. | |
54 | Valuation | Answer | Comments | |||
55 | 40 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | Yes | Enphase Energy trades at a significant discount to its intrinsic value due to weak sentiment. | |
56 | Overall score | |||||
57 | Score out of 200 | 200 | 168 | |||
58 | Score out of 100 | 84 | ||||
59 | Count: | |||||
60 | Yes | 32 | ||||
61 | Somewhat yes | 3 | ||||
62 | No | 5 |
1 | |||||
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2 | |||||
3 | |||||
4 | Business model | ||||
5 | Does the company have a sound business model? | 5 | |||
6 | Is the business model asset light? | 5 | |||
7 | Does the business have recurring or predictable revenues? | 5 | |||
8 | Is the business scalable? | 5 | |||
9 | |||||
10 | |||||
11 | Management | ||||
12 | Is the company operating under an owner/operator or founder-led model? | 5 | |||
13 | Do the managers own a significant stake? (Ownership) | 5 | |||
14 | Are the managers well aligned with shareholders? (Incentive plan) | 5 | |||
15 | Are the managers competent? | 5 | |||
16 | .Has the management demonstrated a high degree of integrity (honesty)? | 5 | |||
17 | Is management turnover low? | 5 | |||
18 | Are the managers good capital allocators? | 5 | |||
19 | Reinvestment rate: ROIC more than WACC? | 5 | |||
20 | |||||
21 | Growth | ||||
22 | Does the company have a long runway or TAM? | 5 | |||
23 | Does the company have a good track record for expansion? | 5 | |||
24 | Does the company have a sound long-term growth strategy? | 5 | |||
25 | Is the company growing sustainably? | 5 | |||
26 | Are there clear levers for margin expansion? | 5 | |||
27 | Is the company focused on organic growth? | 5 | |||
28 | Has the company been successful in inorganic growth, if any? | 5 | |||
29 | |||||
30 | Financials | ||||
31 | Is the company net cash? | 5 | |||
32 | Are the company's gross margins > 40%? | 5 | |||
33 | Are the company's operating margins positive >10% or net profit margins >5%? | 5 | |||
34 | Is the company free cash flow positive? | 5 | |||
35 | Are gross, operating and net profit margins expanding? | 5 | |||
36 | Is the company free from the need to raise equity in the foreseeable future? | 5 | |||
37 | Is the return on equity sufficient? | 5 | |||
38 | |||||
39 | Competitive moat | ||||
40 | Does the company have strong competitive advantages? | 5 | |||
41 | Is the competitive advantage replicable? | 5 | |||
42 | Is the company's competitive advantage continuing to grow? | 5 | |||
43 | Is the company the market leader or gaining market share? | 5 | |||
44 | |||||
45 | Industry | ||||
46 | Are there high barriers to entry to the industry? | 5 | |||
47 | Is the industry highly competitive? | 5 | |||
48 | Does the industry have secular tailwinds? | 5 | |||
49 | Is the industry generally profitable? | 5 | |||
50 | |||||
51 | Risks | ||||
52 | Is a customer/supplier concentration risk? | 5 | |||
53 | Are there risk of obsolescence or technology risks? | 5 | |||
54 | Are there geopolitcal or regulatory risks? | 5 | |||
55 | Are there cyclical risks? | 5 | |||
56 | Are there huge macroeconomic risks? | 5 | |||
57 | |||||
58 | Valuation | ||||
59 | Is the company trading at a sufficient discount to its intrinsic value? | 5 | |||
60 | 200 |
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13 | 10 | 2/2/23 | META | Meta Platforms Inc | 60 | 148.34 | 8,900 |
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64 | ZM |