Irish Election Probabilities 19 Nov 2024


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2	79	Phyll Bugler TPN (6%)											KEY
3	78	Úna McCarthy CSC (7%)	Michelle O'Neill WEX (5%)			2024 Irish General Election							KEY
4	77	Dympna Daly Finn R-G (8%)	Rita McInerney CLR (6%)
5	76	Sarah Barnes DSW (8%)	Tony Fitzgerald CNC (6%)									C-K	Carlow-Kilkenny
6	75	Tanya Cannon L-W (8%)	Margaret Kenneally CSC (6%)									C-M	Cavan-Monaghan
7	74	Maria Byrne LCY (8%)	Lynda Prendergast DMW (6%)									CLR	Clare
8	73	T.P. O'Reilly C-M (8%)	Paddy O'Rourke S-L (7%)			Candidate win probabilities from BoyleSports and Paddy Power odds as of 19th November 2024						CKE	Cork East
9	72	Carmel Brady C-M (9%)	Claudia Kennedy DON (8%)									CNC	Cork North Central
10	71	Tom Nolan CLR (9%)	Teresa Costello DSW (8%)			* denotes outgoing TD			only candidates with a win probability of 5% or higher are shown			CNW	Cork North West
11	70	John McNulty DON (9%)	Mary Fitzpatrick DCT (9%)									CSC	Cork South Central
12	69	Noreen Stokes LNY (13%)	Lorna Nolan DBW (9%)									CSW	Cork South-West
13	68	Paula Butterly LOU (13%)	Bridie Collins LNY (11%)									DON	Donegal
14	67	Niamh Madden GYE (14%)	Robbie Gallagher C-M (18%)									DBN	Dublin Bay North
15	66	Garret Kelleher CNC (15%)	Caroline O'Reilly MHE (18%)									DBS	Dublin Bay South
16	65	Catherine Callaghan C-K (17%)	Ryan O'Meara TPN (23%)									DCT	Dublin Central
17	64	Nikki Bradley DON (22%)	Linda Gordon Kelleher KER (31%)									DFE	Dublin Fingal East
18	63	Emma Blain DBS (23%)	Naoise Ó Cearúil KLN (33%)									DFW	Dublin Fingal West
19	62	Mary Seery Kearney DSC (25%)	Claire Murray OFF (33%)	Mehdi Özçınar CKE (5%)	Ross Cannon CKE (5%)							DMW	Dublin Mid West
20	61	Noel McCarthy CKE (25%)	Alison Comyn LOU (36%)	Janice Boylan DCT (5%)	Alan Coleman CSW (5%)							DNW	Dublin North-West
21	60	Bridín Murphy WEX (27%)	Deirdre O'Brien CKE (40%)	Breda Hanaphy DBW (7%)	Diarmaid Ó Conoráin DBN (5%)							DRD	Dublin Rathdown
22	59	Aoibhinn Tormey DBN (29%)	Catherine Ardagh DSC (42%)	Niamh Whelan DSW (8%)	Lester Gordon C-M (5%)							DSC	Dublin South Central
23	58	Keira Keogh MAY (29%)	Edel McSharry S-L (44%)	Antóin Watters LOU (8%)	Mike Cubbard GYW (5%)							DSW	Dublin South-West
24	57	Michael Doyle C-K (29%)	Niamh Smyth* C-M (48%)	Dan Harty TPN (8%)	Frank Roche CKE (6%)							DBW	Dublin West
25	56	Evie Sammon KLN (31%)	Tom Brabazon DBN (50%)	Cathleen Carney Boud DNW (9%)	Michael Sheehan WEX (6%)							DUN	Dún Laoghaire
26	55	Aisling Dolan R-G (33%)	Erin McGreehan LOU (50%)	Barry Campion L-W (9%)	Walter Ryan-Purcell CNW (7%)							GYE	Galway East
27	54	Billy O'Shea KER (40%)	Eamon Scanlon S-L (50%)	Chris MacManus S-L (9%)	Stephen Kerr MAY (8%)							GYW	Galway West
28	53	Sharon Tolan MHE (40%)	Pat Kennedy W-W (52%)	Maria White MHE (10%)	Patricia Ryan* KLS (9%)							KER	Kerry
29	52	Vicki Casserly DMW (40%)	John Connolly GYW (55%)	Nicole Ryan CNW (13%)	Rob Carry WIC (9%)							KLN	Kildare North
30	51	Edward Timmins WIC (42%)	Christopher O'Sullivan* CSW (56%)	Daithí Doolan DSC (13%)	Jim Ryan TPN (10%)							KLS	Kildare South
31	50	Jerry Buttimer CSC (42%)	Jim O'Callaghan* DBS (58%)	Shónagh Ní Raghallaigh KLS (13%)	Melanie Sheehan Cleary LCY (11%)							LAO	Laois
32	49	Noel Rock DNW (44%)	Lorraine Clifford-Lee DFW (58%)	Gerry Murray MAY (13%)	Joe Behan WIC (11%)							LCY	Limerick City
33	48	Grace Boland DFW (50%)	Albert Dolan GYE (60%)	Ann Graves DFE (14%)	Violet-Anne Wynne* CLR (13%)							LNY	Limerick County
34	47	Tim Lombard CSW (50%)	Brendan Smith* C-M (60%)	Martin Browne* TPS (14%)	Mary Linehan Foley CKE (14%)							L-W	Longford-Westmeath
35	46	Martina Jennings MAY (55%)	Dee Ryan LCY (60%)	Maria McCormack LAO (17%)	Joseph Bonner MHE (14%)							LOU	Louth
36	45	Seán Kyne GYW (55%)	Imelda Goldsboro TPS (62%)	Mícheál Mac Donncha DBN (20%)	Jackser Owens WEX (14%)							MAY	Mayo
37	44	Micheál Carrigy L-W (60%)	Charlie McConalogue* DON (64%)	Aoife Masterson OFF (20%)	Shay Cullen WIC (14%)							MHE	Meath East
38	43	Clodagh Higgins GYE (60%)	Deirdre Heney DBN (64%)	Máire Devine DSC (22%)	Alan Shatter DRD (15%)							MHW	Meath West
39	42	John Paul O'Shea CNW (64%)	Shane Moynihan DMW (64%)	Áine Gladney Knox C-K (25%)	Elaine Mullally LAO (20%)							OFF	Offaly
40	41	John McGahon LOU (64%)	Aisling Dempsey MHW (64%)	Noel Jordan DON (25%)	Gerry Warnock L-W (25%)							R-G	Roscommon-Galway
41	40	John Clendennen OFF (64%)	Stephen Donnelly* WIC (64%)	Louis O'Hara GYE (27%)	Gavin Pepper DNW (27%)							S-L	Sligo-Leitrim
42	39	Mark Duffy MAY (65%)	Lisa Chambers MAY (65%)	Cathy Bennett C-M (29%)	Paddy Holohan DSW (27%)							TPN	Tipperary North
43	38	Linda Murray Nelson MHW (65%)	Paul McAuliffe* DNW (67%)	Joanne Collins LNY (33%)	Malachy Steenson DCT (29%)							TPS	Tipperary South
44	37	Maeve O'Connell DRD (67%)	Gráinne Seoige GYW (69%)	Natasha Newsome Drennan C-K (36%)	Bill Clear KLN (36%)							WAT	Waterford
45	36	Hildegarde Naughton* GYW (69%)	Timmy Dooley CLR (71%)	Johnny Mythen* WEX (40%)	Eugene Murphy R-G (36%)							WEX	Wexford
46	35	Barry Ward DUN (71%)	Pat "the Cope" Gallagher DON (71%)	Joe Lynch CNC (50%)	Aisling Moran LAO (38%)							WIC	Wicklow
47	34	Leonora Carey CLR (71%)	Joe Flaherty* L-W (73%)	Chris Andrews* DBS (50%)	Séamus Healy TPS (38%)							W-W	Wicklow-Wexford
48	33	Cathal Byrne WEX (71%)	Malcolm Byrne W-W (75%)	Donna McGettigan CLR (58%)	Mick Finn CSC (40%)
49	32	Joe Cooney CLR (73%)	Anne Rabbitte* GYE (78%)	Mairéad Farrell* GYW (62%)	Noel French MHW (40%)
50	31	Joe Neville KLN (78%)	Peter Cleere C-K (78%)	Fionntán O Súillebháin W-W (71%)	John O'Heney TPS (42%)								OTHERS
51	30	Noel O'Donovan CSW (78%)	Dara Calleary* MAY (78%)	Pat Buckley* CKE (75%)	Eddie Fitzpatrick OFF (42%)								OTHERS
52	29	Bernard Durkan* KLN (80%)	Michael Moynihan* CNW (83%)	Johnny Guirke* MHW (75%)	Tony Murphy DFW (44%)
53	28	David Fitzgerald C-K (80%)	Cormac Devlin* DUN (83%)	Martin Kenny* S-L (75%)	Alan Edge DSW (48%)								100% REDRESS
54	27	Michael Creed CNW (80%)	Michael Cahill KER (83%)	Conor D. McGuinness[b] WAT (75%)	Gerry Hutch DCT (50%)								100% REDRESS
55	26	Shane O'Callaghan CSC (80%)	Mary Butler* WAT (83%)	Denise Mitchell* DBN (80%)	Tania Doyle DBW (50%)								Charles Ward DON (80%)
56	25	Brian Brennan W-W (80%)	Robert Troy* L-W (86%)	Mark Ward* DMW (80%)	Paul Gogarty DMW (60%)	Fidelma Bennett L-W (6%)
57	24	Michael Murphy TPS (80%)	Martin Daly R-G (86%)	Maurice Quinlivan* LCY (80%)	Patsy O'Brien MAY (60%)	Sadhbh O'Neill WAT (6%)
58	23	John Cummins WAT (82%)	Seán Fleming* LAO (88%)	Claire Kerrane* R-G (80%)	Frankie Daly LCY (64%)	Eilish Balfe MHE (7%)							RIGHT TO CHANGE
59	22	Colm Burke* CNC (83%)	Cathal Crowe* CLR (89%)	Réada Cronin* KLN (82%)	Kevin Callan LOU (64%)	Marie Sherlock DCT (8%)							RIGHT TO CHANGE
60	21	Pete Roche GYE (83%)	Darragh O'Brien* DFE (89%)	Sorca Clarke* L-W (82%)	Gillian Toole MHE (64%)	Martha Fanning DUN (8%)							Joan Collins* DSC 65%
61	20	David Maxwell C-M (83%)	Thomas Byrne* MHE (89%)	Rose Conway-Walsh* MAY (83%)	Peir Leonard W-W (64%)	Francis Timmons DMW (10%)	Hugo Mills DUN (6%)
62	19	Mark Stanton CKE (83%)	John McGuinness* C-K (91%)	Darren O'Rourke* MHE (83%)	William O'Leary CKE (67%)	John Nisbet DNW (10%)	Mary Roche WAT (7%)
63	18	Alan Farrell* DFE (86%)	Pádraig O'Sullivan* CNC (91%)	Pauline Tully C-M (86%)	Thomas Pringle* DON (67%)	Michael Brennan TPS (11%)	Elisa O'Donovan LCY (8%)	Catherine Lynch CKE (5%)	Colette Finn CNW (5%)				INDEPENDENT LEFT
64	17	Kieran O'Donnell* LCY (86%)	Shay Brennan DRD (91%)	Dessie Ellis* DNW (86%)	Barry Heneghan DBN (67%)	Shane Folan DBN (13%)	Ellen Murphy DBW (9%)	Esther Aherne LCY (5%)	David Healy DBN (6%)				INDEPENDENT LEFT
65	16	Paschal Donohoe* DCT (89%)	John Lahart* DSW (91%)	Paul Donnelly* DBW (89%)	Kate O'Connell DBS (67%)	Seán Ó hArgáin C-K (14%)	Sinéad Gibney DRD (11%)	Chris Maxwell MAY (5%)	Brian Leddin* LCY (9%)				John Lyons DBN 33%
66	15	Frank Feighan* S-L (89%)	Norma Foley* KER (91%)	Pa Daly* KER (91%)	Cathal Berry* KLS (69%)	Darragh Moriarty DSC (20%)	Chris Pender KLS (15%)	Kathryn Bermingham CKE (6%)	Pippa Hackett OFF (11%)
67	14	Naoise Ó Muirí DBN (89%)	Niall Collins* LNY (91%)	Ruairí Ó Murchú* LOU (91%)	Michael Fleming DRD (71%)	Eoghan Kenny CNC (22%)	Ronan Moore MHW (15%)	Rebecca Hendrick DSC (7%)	Marianne Butler LOU (13%)
68	13	Emer Currie DBW (89%)	James Browne* WEX (91%)	Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire* CSC (92%)	Matt Shanahan* WAT (71%)	Angela Feeney KLN (22%)	Joan Hopkins DFE (20%)	Fergus McDonnell OFF (11%)	Vincent P. Martin KLN (14%)				IRELAND FIRST
69	12	Emer Higgins* DMW (91%)	Aindrias Moynihan* CNW (92%)	Louise O'Reilly* DFW (93%)	Verona Murphy* WEX (78%)	Conor Sheehan LCY (31%)	Eoin Ó Broin[b] DMW (20%)	Paul Hogan L-W (14%)	Róisín Garvey CLR (18%)				IRELAND FIRST
70	11	Colm Brophy* DSW (91%)	Michael Smith TPN (92%)	Thomas Gould* CNC (95%)	Catherine Connolly* GYW (83%)	John Maher CNC (36%)	Jen Cummins DSC (25%)	Philip Sutcliffe Snr DSC (17%)	Marc Ó Cathasaigh* WAT (18%)				Derek Blighe CNC 25%
71	10	Willie Aird LAO (93%)	James O'Connor* CKE (93%)	Pádraig Mac Lochlainn* DON (95%)	Carol Nolan* OFF (86%)	John Walsh DBW (60%)	Pádraig Rice CSC (27%)	Declan Geraghty GYE (17%)	Steven Matthews* WIC (20%)
72	9	Martin Heydon* KLS (94%)	Jack Chambers* DBW (93%)	Mary Lou McDonald* DCT (95%)	Noel Grealish* GYW (89%)	Mark Wall KLS (62%)	Ross O'Mullane DSW (29%)	Linda de Courcy DMW (29%)	Joe O'Brien* DFW (22%)	Patrick Curtin WAT (5%)
73	8	Peter Burke* L-W (95%)	Fiona O'Loughlin KLS (93%)	Joanna Byrne LOU (95%)	Brian Stanley* LAO (89%)	Ciarán Ahern DSW (64%)	Liam Quaide CKE (36%)	Eddie Punch CLR (56%)	Neasa Hourigan* DCT (29%)	Adrienne Wallace C-K (10%)	Mairéad Tóibín DUN (5%)
74	7	Alan Dillon* MAY (95%)	Willie O'Dea* LCY (93%)	John Brady* WIC (95%)	Marian Harkin* S-L (91%)	George Lawlor WEX (65%)	Rory Hearne DNW (48%)	Shane P. O'Reilly C-M (58%)	Francis Noel Duffy* DSW (33%)	Conor Reddy DNW (42%)	Michael O'Dowd LOU (5%)
75	6	Patrick O'Donovan* LNY (98%)	Tony McCormack OFF (93%)	Seán Crowe* DSW (98%)	Seán Canney GYE (92%)	Laura Harmon CSC (69%)	Patricia Stephenson C-K (56%)	Noel Thomas GYW (60%)	Malcolm Noonan* C-K (44%)	Mick Barry* CNC (48%)	Paul Lawless MAY (9%)
76	5	Helen McEntee* MHE (98%)	Jennifer Murnane O'Connor* C-K (95%)	Matt Carthy* C-M (99%)	Kevin "Boxer" Moran L-W (92%)	Duncan Smith* DFE (69%)	Holly Cairns* CSW (56%)	Ken O'Flynn CNC (80%)	Hazel Chu DBS (48%)	Paul Murphy* DSW (55%)	Ellen Troy DBW (14%)
77	4	James Geoghegan DBS (98%)	Séamus McGrath CSC (95%)	Eoin Ó Broin*[b] DMW (99%)	Mattie McGrath* TPS (92%)	Robert O'Donoghue DFW (80%)	Aidan Farrelly KLN (75%)	Michael Clarke S-L (83%)	Patrick Costello* DSC (55%)	Hazel De Nortúin DSC (56%)	Jim Codd WEX (20%)
78	3	Neale Richmond* DRD (99%)	Micheál Martin* CSC (97%)	Aengus Ó Snodaigh* DSC (99%)	Danny Healy-Rae* KER (95%)	Ivana Bacik* DBS (91%)	Gary Gannon* DCT (78%)	Richard O'Donoghue LNY (89%)	Roderic O'Gorman* DBW (56%)	Ruth Coppinger DBW (67%)	Emer Tóibín MHE (22%)	Mick Wallace WEX (44%)	Barry Ward DSC (6%)
79	2	Jennifer Carroll MacNeill* DUN (99%)	James Lawless* KLN (97%)	David Cullinane* WAT (99%)	Michael Healy-Rae* KER (100%)	Ged Nash* LOU (94%)	Cian O'Callaghan* DBN (89%)	Michael Fitzmaurice* R-G (95%)	Ossian Smyth* DUN (71%)	Gino Kenny* DMW (71%)	Sarah O'Reilly C-M (42%)	Clare Daly DCT (58%)	Eamon McGee DON (7%)
80	1	Simon Harris* WIC (100%)	Seán Ó Fearghaíl* KLS ☑	Pearse Doherty* DON (100%)	Michael Lowry* TPN (100%)	Alan Kelly* TPN (95%)	Jennifer Whitmore* WIC (91%)	Michael Collins* CSW (98%)	Catherine Martin* DRD (73%)	Richard Boyd Barrett* DUN (97%)	Peadar Tóibín* MHW (86%)	Dean Mulligan DFE (62%)	Hermann Kelly LOU (13%)
81		FINE GAEL	FIANNA FÁIL	SINN FÉIN	INDEPENDENTS	LABOUR	SOCIAL DEMOCRATS	INDEPENDENT IRELAND	GREEN	PBP-SOLIDARITY	AONTÚ	INDEPENDENTS 4 CHANGE	IRISH FREEDOM
82													Bluesky: @peterdonaghy.bsky.social
83													X: @peterdonaghy
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