conservative_manifesto_analysis_jun24


1	Climate emissions review of Conservative manifesto
2	https://public.conservatives.com/static/documents/GE2024/Conservative-Manifesto-GE2024.pdf
3
4		Pledges	Analysis	Total Mitgated MTCO2e by ...					Assumptions	Calculation detail
5				2030	2035	2040	2045	2050

6
7	Section	Our plan for an affordable and pragmatic transition to net zero
8
9		We will boost our energy independence in an increasingly unstable world. We will legislate to ensure annual licensing rounds for oil and gas production from our own North Sea	We believe this won’t lead to any additional oil and gas being extracted as the business dept runs regular rounds anyway.
10
11		We introduced a windfall tax on oil and gas companies in 2022 to ensure they pay their fair share of tax from extraordinary profits while prices remain abnormally high. We will keep this in place until 2028-29, unless prices fall back to normal sooner.	Unquantifiable due to unpredictablity of future prices.
12
13		We will back up renewables and prevent the prospect of blackouts with new gas power stations to maintain a safe and reliable energy source for days when the weather doesn’t power up renewables.	Unquantifiable.
14
15		In the next Parliament we will: Treble our offshore wind capacity	This is a nothing promise. The existing pipeline of offshore wind projects delivers more than treble by 2030	0	0	0	0	0	Offshore capacity in 2023 was 15,000MW	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
16									the UK’s pipeline of offshore wind projects has reached 97,944 MW...The pipeline includes projects at every stage of development: operational, under construction, consented or planned.	https://www.renewableuk.com/news/643056/UK-Offshore-Wind-pipeline-nears-100GW-as-Global-pipeline-tops-1.23TW.htm
17									The pipeline includes windfarms still at the planning stage. Grid connection dates can be as far ahead as 2040 Let's assume Conservatives can speed that up so offshore wind trebles by 2030 when it might otherwise have increased linearly to x6 in 2040
18									Assume a linear increase to 6xcapacity from 2025 to 2040 in the baseline scenario
19									Assume a linear increase to 4xcapacity from 2025 to 2030 and then linearly to 6x at 2040 in the Conservative scenario
20										Year	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040
21										Known & Projected capacity MW	15,000	15,800	24,765	29,647	34,529	36,350	41,488	46,625	51,763	56,900	62,038	67,175	72,313	77,450	82,588	87,725	92,863	98,000
22										Projected capacity MW under Conservative plan	15,000	15,800	23,571	27,857	32,143	36,429	40,714	45,000	50,300	55,600	60,900	66,200	71,500	76,800	82,100	87,400	92,700	98,000
23
24		Build the first two carbon capture and storage clusters, based across North Wales and, the North West of England and Teesside and the Humber,	Unproven technology. No timescales and capacities.
25
26		Invest £1.1 billion into the Green Industries Growth Accelerator to support British manufacturing capabilities, boost supply chains and ensure our energy transition is made in Britain.	Great idea. Not quantifiable.
27
28		Scale up nuclear power, building on our work establishing Great British Nuclear. Within the first 100 days of the next Parliament, we will approve two new fleets of Small Modular Reactors	Not quantified. Currently unproven technology.
29
30		We will halve the time it takes for new nuclear reactors to be approved, by allowing regulators to assess projects while designs are being finalised, improving join-up with overseas regulators assessing the same technology and speeding up planning and environmental approvals.	Great idea. Not quantifiable.
31
32		Deliver a new gigawatt power plant in Wylfa in North Wales	Urgently needed to replace gas power stations and provide base load. However, given the delays at Hinkley Point and Sizewell it seems unlikely this can be delivered before 2050.	0	0	0	0	22	Suppose a new nuclear power station could be delivered in 20 years, i.e. by 2045. By that the time the carbon intensity of UK marginal domestic electricity based on current policies is expected to be just 0.00137 kgCO2/kWh	https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6567994fcc1ec5000d8eef17/data-tables-1-19.xlsx
33									Carbon intensity of a gas power station kgCO2/kWh	0.5	https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/post/postpn268.pdf/
34									How much electricity per year from 1GW in kWh	8,760,000,000
35									Let's suppose that the nuclear capacity allows to close a gas power station the same capacity: emssions avoided per year tCO2	4,380,000
36
37		We will implement a new import carbon pricing mechanism by 2027 to ensure that imports of iron, steel, aluminium, ceramics and cement from countries with a lower or no carbon price will face a comparable carbon price to those goods produced in the UK.	Powerful idea. Not quantifiable.
38
39		We will ensure the annual policy costs and levies on household energy bills are lower in each year of the next Parliament than they were in 2023.	Reducing the price of energy bill is likely to increase use and therefore CO2 emissions.
40
41		Reforming the Climate Change Committee, giving it an explicit mandate to consider cost to households and UK energy security in its future climate advice.	Risks slowing down the path to net zero and therefore higher emissions.
42
43		Ruling out creating further green levies, and alongside our commitment not to introduce road pricing schemes, we will also rule out any frequent flyer levy.	No change to current policy baseline.
44
45		Reviewing and reforming standing charges to keep them as low as possible	Great idea: lower costs for lower user; higher costs for higher users. Unquantifiable.
46
47		Giving households the choice of smart energy tariffs, which can save them £900 a year.	Great idea: smart pricing will help match demand to variable supply from renewables. Not quantified.
48
49		Implementing the recommendations of the Winser Review, ensuring networks are able to buy forward with confidence and cutting waiting times to get a grid connection	Highly necessary but doesn't appear to be quantifiable.
50
51		We will invest £6 billion in energy efficiency over the next three years to make around a million homes warmer.	This merely restates existing government policy.	0	0	0	0	0	https://www.gov.uk/government/news/families-business-and-industry-to-get-energy-efficiency-support
52
53		we will fund an energy efficiency voucher scheme, open to every household in England, to support the installation of energy efficiency measures and solar panels,	How much will each voucher be worth? Completely unquantifiable.
54
55		We will ensure democratic consent for onshore wind, striking the right balance between energy security and the views of their local communities. Our updated National Planning Policy Framework seeks to ensure local areas that host onshore wind directly benefit, including potentially through energy bill discounts.	Might speed up the deployment of onshore wind; might slow it down. Not quantifiable.
56
57		We will support solar in the right places, not on our best agricultural land. We have changed planning rules to protect the best agricultural land with a presumption that this is used for food production, while also making it easier for solar to be located on brownfield sites and on rooftops.	Good idea. Not quantifiable.
58
59		We will retain the current moratorium on fracking.	Continuation of current policy.
60
61	Section	Our plan to support our rural way of life and enhance our environment
62
63		Deliver our tree planting and peatland commitments through our Nature for Climate funding, and continuing our work to unlock private investment.	Looks like a commitment to continue with current policies.
64
65	Section	Our plan to strengthen the United Kingdom
66
67		We will expand our Backing Drivers’ Bill to cover Wales, reversing Labour’s blanket 20mph speed limit by requiring local consent for 20mph zones and giving local communities the legal right to challenge existing zones	Potentially leads to higher emssions from faster driving. Unquantifiable.
68
69	Section	Our plan for a secure, dynamic and growing economy
70
71		We will spend £36 billion of HS2 savings on transport projects that will benefit more people, in more places, more quickly.	Not quantifiable.
72
73		Invest £4.7 billion for smaller cities, towns and rural areas in the North and Midlands to spend on their transport priorities. This will cut congestion and upgrade local bus and train stations.	Gooo idea. Not quantifiable.
74
75		Deliver our plan for Northern Powerhouse Rail bringing more frequent trains, more capacity and faster journeys.	Good idea. Not quantifiable.
76
77		Boost rail connectivity in the Midlands, with £1.75 billion to fund the Midlands Rail Hub in full.	Good idea. Not quantifiable.
78
79		Provide an additional £1 billion to support hundreds of new bus routes across the North and Midlands.	Good idea. Not quantifiable.
80
81		Electrify the North Wales Main Line	Likely to be small beer compared to LibDem’s pledge to electrify all railways
82
83		We will support people to choose electric cars by ensuring our charging infrastructure is truly nationwide	Good idea. Not quantifiable
84
85		We will support the growth and decarbonisation of our aviation sector. We will back British Sustainable Aviation Fuel through our SAF mandate	Good idea but only works for very short flights and will be be expensive. Unlikely to impact emissions.
86
87		We will back our maritime sector, including shipping and ports, as it decarbonises.	Good idea. Not quantifiable
88
89	Section	Our plan to strengthen communities
90
91		Reverse Labour’s unfair ULEZ expansion in London.	Likely to cause small increase in emissions	-1.00	-2.00	-2.83	-3.33	-3.50	Cumulatively since 2019 it is estimated the ULEZ has led to a reduction of around 800,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions from vehicles across London over the four-year period compared to without the ULEZ	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lsLxoLVUpQl70drm2ZjLkYM6NLAkVK5vJK17x3al8jE/edit?gid=1641117830#gid=1641117830
92									Reductions per year tCO2	200,000
93									Guess that ULEZ expansion doubled the no. of car journeys covered
94									Extra emissions per year if expansion undone	200,000
95									Assume fossil fuel cars stable until 2035 then tapering down to 0% in 2050
96
97		Rule out top-down blanket Low Traffic Neighbourhoods and 20mph zones.	Likely to cause small increase in emissions compared to current policy baseline
98
99
100
101		We will extend the £2 bus fare cap in England for the entirety of the next Parliament	Good idea. Can’t find source data. Let’s make a guess at quantifying	0.0066	0.0066	0.0066	0.0066	0.0066	"The scheme is estimated to take at least 2 million car journeys off the roads" Let’s suppose it saves 2m car journeys per year And each journey would have been 5 miles	https://www.gov.uk/government/news/2-bus-fare-cap-across-england-to-save-passengers-money
102									Average kgCO2 per car mile UK	0.13	https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-co2-emissions-car-uk
103									Car miles avoided per year	10,000,000
104									Emissions saved per year tCO2	1,320
105
106		Grand Total Emissions Mitigations to 2030/2040/2050 MtCO2e		-1	-2	-3	-3	18