QLD 2020 Forecast - Google Drive

QLD 2020 Forecast


1
2	Overall forecast:	Labor is slightly favoured to win a majority
3	Overall forecast:	Labor is slightly favoured to win a majority
4
5
6	Odds of various outcomes in the simulations					See Forecast over time for the change in various probabilities and forecasted voting intention over time, or go to Seat Forecasts to check out the forecast for each seat.
7	Odds of various outcomes in the simulations
8	Labor wins an outright majority		60	in	100
9	LNP wins an outright majority		6	in	100
10	Labor + Greens have a majority		11	in	100
11	LNP + Katter's have a majority		10	in	100
12	Independents/One Nation required for majority		13	in	100
13
14	Labor holds most seats		81	in	100
15	LNP holds most seats		17	in	100
16	No party has a plurality of seats		2	in	100
17
18	Either Labor or LNP can form majority govt		66	in	100
19	Hung legislature		34	in	100


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94


1	District	Probability of winning
2	District	Labor	LNP	Green	One Nation	Other	These are the probabilities of each party winning each seat, based on 100 000 simulations of each district. If the forecast here gives Labor 90% odds, that implies Labor only wins that district 9 times out of 10 in our simulations (i.e. it's not a certainty - nothing is, but we aim to be well-calibrated). Probabilities estimated from a model of Queensland state elections, taking into account basic fundamentals, statewide polling, seat polling, and historical data. NOT A FORECAST OF THE PERCENTAGE OF THE VOTE EACH PARTY IS EXPECTED TO GET. (numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding)
3	Algester	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
4	Aspley	68%	32%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	Bancroft	95%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
6	Barron River	71%	29%	<1%	<1%	<1%
7	Bonney	40%	60%	<1%	<1%	<1%
8	Broadwater	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
9	Buderim	1%	99%	<1%	1%	<1%
10	Bulimba	98%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
11	Bundaberg	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Bundamba	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
13	Burdekin	37%	63%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	Burleigh	18%	82%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Burnett	1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Cairns	85%	14%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Callide	1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Caloundra	35%	65%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Capalaba	96%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Chatsworth	28%	72%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Clayfield	27%	73%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Condamine	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Cook	98%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Coomera	22%	78%	<1%	<1%	<1%
25	Cooper	95%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
26	Currumbin	25%	75%	<1%	<1%	<1%
27	Everton	20%	80%	<1%	<1%	<1%
28	Ferny Grove	86%	14%	<1%	<1%	<1%
29	Gaven	62%	37%	1%	<1%	<1%
30	Gladstone	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
31	Glass House	31%	69%	<1%	<1%	<1%
32	Greenslopes	97%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
33	Gregory	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
34	Gympie	1%	98%	<1%	1%	<1%
35	Hervey Bay	6%	94%	<1%	<1%	<1%
36	Hill	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	99%
37	Hinchinbrook	<1%	9%	<1%	<1%	90%
38	Inala	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
39	Ipswich	99%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%
40	Ipswich West	99%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%
41	Jordan	99%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
42	Kawana	1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
43	Keppel	92%	7%	<1%	1%	<1%
44	Kurwongbah	96%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
45	Lockyer	1%	91%	<1%	8%	<1%
46	Logan	91%	3%	<1%	6%	<1%
47	Lytton	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
48	MacAlister	88%	11%	<1%	<1%	<1%
49	Mackay	96%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
50	Maiwar	4%	2%	94%	<1%	<1%
51	Mansfield	61%	38%	<1%	<1%	<1%
52	Maroochydore	6%	94%	<1%	<1%	<1%
53	Maryborough	87%	5%	<1%	8%	<1%
54	McConnel	87%	8%	5%	<1%	<1%
55	Mermaid Beach	7%	93%	<1%	<1%	<1%
56	Miller	92%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%
57	Mirani	43%	21%	<1%	35%	<1%
58	Moggill	12%	87%	1%	<1%	<1%
59	Morayfield	99%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
60	Mount Ommaney	92%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
61	Mudgeeraba	2%	98%	<1%	<1%	<1%
62	Mulgrave	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
63	Mundingburra	54%	46%	<1%	<1%	<1%
64	Murrumba	98%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
65	Nanango	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
66	Nicklin	9%	91%	<1%	<1%	<1%
67	Ninderry	4%	96%	<1%	<1%	<1%
68	Noosa	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	96%
69	Nudgee	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
70	Oodgeroo	4%	78%	<1%	<1%	17%
71	Pine Rivers	92%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
72	Pumicestone	71%	29%	<1%	<1%	<1%
73	Redcliffe	88%	12%	<1%	<1%	<1%
74	Redlands	74%	26%	<1%	<1%	<1%
75	Rockhampton	95%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
76	Sandgate	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
77	Scenic Rim	<1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
78	South Brisbane	37%	<1%	63%	<1%	<1%
79	Southern Downs	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
80	Southport	7%	93%	<1%	<1%	<1%
81	Springwood	75%	25%	<1%	<1%	<1%
82	Stafford	98%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
83	Stretton	98%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
84	Surfers Paradise	<1%	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
85	Theodore	23%	77%	<1%	<1%	<1%
86	Thuringowa	66%	9%	<1%	<1%	25%
87	Toohey	98%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
88	Toowoomba North	13%	87%	<1%	<1%	<1%
89	Toowoomba South	1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
90	Townsville	61%	39%	<1%	<1%	<1%
91	Traeger	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%
92	Warrego	<1%	99%	<1%	<1%	<1%
93	Waterford	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
94	Whitsunday	54%	45%	<1%	<1%	1%
95	Woodridge	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%


1		Labor	LNP	Green	One Nation	Others	Labor 2pp	LNP 2pp
2	1-Oct-20	37	37	12	9	5	52	48
3	14-Oct-20	37	37	11	9	6	52	48
4	15-Oct-20	36	35	10	12	7	51	49
5	30-Oct-20	37	36	11	10	6	51.5	48.5


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94


1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94