Election Results - Irvine City Council, CD 45, 48, 39, 49, AD 74

1 | RETURNS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

2 | Total Ballots Left To Count in OC | 12,206 | |||||

3 | Total Ballots Cast & Counted | 1,098,173 | |||||

4 | Percent of Ballots Remaining To Be Counted | 1.1% | |||||

5 | Total Voter Registration | 1,558,988 | |||||

6 | Forecast Voter Turnout | 71.2% | This is huge for a midterm (80.7% in 2016 general in OC) | ||||

7 | |||||||

8 | Place | Votes | Fraction | Margin | Likelihood of Win* | ||

9 | 12 | David Chey | 2,552 | 1.7% | 18,372 | 0% | |

10 | 10 | Gang Chen | 5,737 | 3.9% | 15,187 | 0% | |

11 | 5 | Kev Abazajian | 16,640 | 11.3% | 4,284 | 4% | |

12 | 4 | Lauren Johnson-Norris | 16,947 | 11.5% | 3,977 | 5% | |

13 | 9 | John Park | 6,753 | 4.6% | 14,171 | 0% | |

14 | Winning | 2 | Anthony Kuo | 20,924 | 14.2% | 1,798 | 72% |

15 | Winning | 1 | Farrah Khan | 22,788 | 15.5% | 3,662 | 88% |

16 | 8 | Mark Newgent | 7,948 | 5.4% | 12,976 | 0% | |

17 | 7 | Jaci Woods | 9,980 | 6.8% | 10,944 | 0% | |

18 | 6 | Frank McGill | 12,213 | 8.3% | 8,711 | 0% | |

19 | 3 | Carrie O'Malley | 19,126 | 13.0% | 1,798 | 14% | |

20 | 11 | Lee Sun | 5,365 | 3.7% | 15,559 | 0% | |

21 | |||||||

22 | Total Votes | 146,973 | |||||

23 | Percent Counted, est. | 98.9% | |||||

24 | |||||||

25 | Expected Votes | 148,607 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

26 | Error | 3084 | error from remaining to be counted - with large systematic added | ||||

27 | Estimated Votes Left to Count, Irvine | 1,634 | |||||

28 | (Estimated votes left is from proportionally allocating total OC remaining votes to the City based on fraction of votes in Irvine) | ||||||

29 | |||||||

30 | Congressional Races - not updating below as of at least 11/20 as all races are called | ||||||

31 | |||||||

32 | CD 45 | Likelihood of Win* | |||||

33 | Winning | 1 | Katie Porter | 145,895 | 51.6% | 8,993 | 100.0% |

34 | 2 | Mimi Walters | 136,902 | 48.4% | |||

35 | |||||||

36 | Counted Votes | 282,797 | |||||

37 | Expected Votes | 268,000 | FiveThirtyEight Model | ||||

38 | Expected Votes | 285,940 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

39 | % Counted, based on remaining | 98.9% | |||||

40 | Error | 535 | |||||

41 | Estimated Votes Left to Count | 3,143 | |||||

42 | |||||||

43 | |||||||

44 | CD 48 | Likelihood of Win* | |||||

45 | Winning | 1 | Harley Rouda | 141,903 | 53.2% | 17,087 | 100.0% |

46 | 2 | Dana Rohrabacher | 124,816 | 46.8% | |||

47 | |||||||

48 | Counted Votes | 266,719 | |||||

49 | Expected Votes | 262,000 | FiveThirtyEight Model | ||||

50 | Expected Votes | 269,684 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

51 | % Counted, based on remaining | 98.9% | |||||

52 | Error | 519 | |||||

53 | Estimated Votes Left to Count | 2,965 | |||||

54 | |||||||

55 | |||||||

56 | CD 39 | Likelihood of Win* | |||||

57 | Winning | 1 | Gil Cisneros | 113,075 | 50.8% | 3,495 | 100.0% |

58 | 2 | Young Kim | 109,580 | 49.2% | |||

59 | |||||||

60 | Counted Votes | 222,655 | |||||

61 | Expected Votes | 218,000 | FiveThirtyEight Model | ||||

62 | Expected Votes | 225,130 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

63 | Percent Counted, est. | 98.9% | |||||

64 | Error | 474 | |||||

65 | Estimated Votes Left to Count | 2,475 | |||||

66 | |||||||

67 | |||||||

68 | CD 49 | Likelihood of Win* | |||||

69 | Winning | 1 | Mike Levin | 139,763 | 55.5% | 27,796 | 100.0% |

70 | 2 | Diane Harkey | 111,967 | 44.5% | |||

71 | |||||||

72 | Counted Votes | 251,730 | |||||

73 | Expected Votes | 251,000 | FiveThirtyEight Model | ||||

74 | Expected Votes | 254,528 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

75 | Percent Counted, est. | 98.9% | |||||

76 | Error | 505 | |||||

77 | Estimated Votes Left to Count | 2,798 | |||||

78 | |||||||

79 | |||||||

80 | California Assembly Race: AD 74 | Likelihood of Win* | |||||

81 | Winning | 1 | Cottie Petrie-Norris | 95,397 | 52.5% | 8,946 | 100.0% |

82 | 2 | Matt Harper | 86,451 | 47.5% | |||

83 | |||||||

84 | Counted Votes | 181,848 | |||||

85 | Expected Votes | 131,256 | 2014 Votes + 30% (estimate!) | ||||

86 | Expected Votes | 183,869 | OC Remaining Model | ||||

87 | Percent Counted, est. | 98.9% | |||||

88 | Error | 429 | |||||

89 | Estimated Votes Left to Count | 2,021 | |||||

90 | |||||||

91 | |||||||

92 | |||||||

93 | *Note: the analysis in this coumn is required to assume that late counts have the same proportional distribution as early counts, which is, of course, not necessary. The late counts are now determined to be very different from early counts. I have increased the error in the likelihood analysis to partially account for this. For CD45, I've used a forecast based on the late count data in the CD45 tab of this spreadsheet. |

1 | Results: Irvine City Council | ||||||||||||||
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2 | # | David | Gang | Kev | Lauren | John | Anthony | Farrah | Mark | Jaci | Frank | Carrie | Lee | Day's Total | |

3 | 11/6 | 0 | 1,430 | 3,095 | 8,431 | 9,343 | 3,844 | 12,121 | 11,913 | 4,647 | 5,996 | 7,343 | 11,524 | 2,663 | |

4 | 11/7 | 1 | 1,430 | 3,095 | 8,432 | 9,343 | 3,844 | 12,121 | 11,914 | 4,647 | 5,996 | 7,343 | 11,524 | 2,663 | |

5 | Day's Counts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |

6 | 11/8 | 2 | 1,533 | 3,374 | 9,374 | 10,264 | 4,165 | 13,315 | 13,190 | 4,988 | 6,561 | 8,032 | 12,561 | 2,942 | |

7 | Day's Counts | 103 | 279 | 942 | 921 | 321 | 1,194 | 1,276 | 341 | 565 | 689 | 1,037 | 279 | 7,844 | |

8 | % in day | 1.3% | 3.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 3.5% | ||

9 | 11/9 | 3 | 1,613 | 3,608 | 10,112 | 11,168 | 4,446 | 14,301 | 14,306 | 5,337 | 6,942 | 8,570 | 13,423 | 3,192 | |

10 | Day's Counts | 80 | 234 | 738 | 904 | 281 | 986 | 1,116 | 349 | 381 | 538 | 862 | 250 | 6,639 | |

11 | % in day | 1.2% | 3.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 14.7% | 16.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 3.7% | ||

12 | 11/10 | 4 | 1,616 | 3,616 | 10,142 | 11,190 | 4,452 | 14,331 | 14,337 | 5,343 | 6,954 | 8,586 | 13,444 | 3,200 | |

13 | Day's Counts | 3 | 8 | 30 | 22 | 6 | 30 | 31 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 8 | 190 | |

14 | % in day | 1.6% | 4.1% | 15.5% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 4.1% | ||

15 | 11/12 | 5 | 1,674 | 3,801 | 10,732 | 11,738 | 4,638 | 14,981 | 15,164 | 5,567 | 7,178 | 8,881 | 14,055 | 3,401 | |

16 | Day's Counts | 58 | 185 | 590 | 548 | 186 | 650 | 827 | 224 | 224 | 295 | 611 | 201 | 4,541 | |

17 | % in day | 1.3% | 4.0% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 14.1% | 18.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 13.3% | 4.4% | ||

18 | 11/13 | 6 | 1,744 | 4,046 | 11,704 | 12,497 | 4,901 | 15,953 | 16,348 | 5,873 | 7,592 | 9,407 | 14,913 | 3,691 | |

19 | Day's Counts | 70 | 245 | 972 | 759 | 263 | 972 | 1,184 | 306 | 414 | 526 | 858 | 290 | 6,789 | |

20 | % in day | 1.0% | 3.6% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 4.2% | ||

21 | 11/14 | 7 | 1,938 | 4,593 | 13,407 | 14,220 | 5,472 | 18,032 | 18,731 | 6,562 | 8,656 | 10,660 | 16,650 | 4,267 | |

22 | Day's Counts | 194 | 547 | 1,703 | 1,723 | 571 | 2,079 | 2,383 | 689 | 1,064 | 1,253 | 1,737 | 576 | 14,325 | |

23 | % in day | 1.3% | 3.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 4.0% | ||

24 | 11/15 | 8 | 2,023 | 4,895 | 14,320 | 15,061 | 5,775 | 18,965 | 19,854 | 6,883 | 9,041 | 11,145 | 17,467 | 4,562 | |

25 | Day's Counts | 85 | 302 | 913 | 841 | 303 | 933 | 1,123 | 321 | 385 | 485 | 817 | 295 | 6,718 | |

26 | % in day | 1.2% | 4.4% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 4.3% | ||

27 | 11/16 | 9 | 2,177 | 5,140 | 15,051 | 15,688 | 6,044 | 19,592 | 20,769 | 7,170 | 9,294 | 11,459 | 18,007 | 4,812 | |

28 | Day's Counts | 154 | 245 | 731 | 627 | 269 | 627 | 915 | 287 | 253 | 314 | 540 | 250 | 5,058 | |

29 | % in day | 3.0% | 4.7% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 5.2% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 4.8% | ||

30 | 11/17 | 10 | 2,267 | 5,292 | 15,404 | 15,974 | 6,185 | 19,899 | 21,217 | 7,345 | 9,441 | 11,632 | 18,262 | 4,939 | |

31 | Day's Counts | 90 | 152 | 353 | 286 | 141 | 307 | 448 | 175 | 147 | 173 | 255 | 127 | 2,564 | |

32 | % in day | 3.4% | 5.7% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 4.8% | ||

33 | 11/19 | 11 | 2,292 | 5,324 | 15,552 | 16,097 | 6,230 | 20,012 | 21,392 | 7,407 | 9,510 | 11,707 | 18,348 | 4,994 | |

34 | Day's Counts | 25 | 32 | 148 | 123 | 45 | 113 | 175 | 62 | 69 | 75 | 86 | 55 | 983 | |

35 | % in day | 2.5% | 3.2% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | ||

36 | 11/20 | 12 | 2,303 | 5,347 | 15,624 | 16,163 | 6,259 | 20,059 | 21,491 | 7,435 | 9,542 | 11,740 | 18,380 | 5,015 | |

37 | Day's Counts | 11 | 23 | 72 | 66 | 29 | 47 | 99 | 28 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 21 | 482 | |

38 | % in day | 2.2% | 4.7% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 20.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | ||

39 | 11/21 | 13 | 2,341 | 5,392 | 15,804 | 16,272 | 6,340 | 20,158 | 21,674 | 7,513 | 9,596 | 11,807 | 18,473 | 5,062 | |

40 | Day's Counts | 38 | 45 | 180 | 109 | 81 | 99 | 183 | 78 | 54 | 67 | 93 | 47 | 1,036 | |

41 | % in day | 3.5% | 4.2% | 16.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 4.4% | ||

42 | 11/24 | 14 | 2,376 | 5,429 | 15,919 | 16,360 | 6,396 | 20,241 | 21,825 | 7,570 | 9,639 | 11,864 | 18,546 | 5,099 | |

43 | Day's Counts | 35 | 37 | 115 | 88 | 56 | 83 | 151 | 57 | 43 | 57 | 73 | 37 | 797 | |

44 | % in day | 4.2% | 4.4% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 18.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% | ||

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49 | % late counts | 1.6% | 4.0% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 14.2% | 17.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 4.2% | ||

50 | Forecast End | 2,318 | 5,389 | 15,761 | 16,295 | 6,300 | 20,244 | 21,670 | 7,488 | 9,613 | 11,835 | 18,548 | 5,062 | ||

51 | % optimist | 1.6% | 4.0% | 16.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 14.0% | 17.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 4.2% | ||

52 | 2,330 | 5,413 | 15,898 | 16,271 | 6,331 | 20,288 | 21,770 | 7,517 | 9,645 | 11,867 | 18,578 | 5,084 | |||

53 | margin of std forecast | 17,926 | 14,854 | 4,483 | 3,948 | 13,944 | - | - | 12,756 | 10,630 | 8,409 | 1,695 | 15,181 | ||

54 | % | 1.6% | 3.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 4.5% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 3.6% | ||

55 | RANK | 12 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 11 | ||

56 | remaining votes | 1,634 |

1 | Results: CD 45 | Results as of 5 pm 11/24: Katie Porter will win the election with a margin of 4.1%Â±0.3% once all counts are in | ||||||||||||||||||
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2 | ||||||||||||||||||||

3 | Total Ballots Left To Count in OC | 12,206 | ||||||||||||||||||

4 | Total Ballots Cast & Counted | 1,098,173 | ||||||||||||||||||

5 | Percent of Ballots Remaining To Be Counted | 1.1% | ||||||||||||||||||

6 | Total Voter Registration | 1,558,988 | ||||||||||||||||||

7 | Forecast Voter Turnout | 71.2% | ||||||||||||||||||

8 | ||||||||||||||||||||

9 | Day's counts | % Day's Share of Votes | Estimated Vote Share - After Election Day | |||||||||||||||||

10 | # | Katie Porter | Mimi Walters | Difference | % difference | Katie Porter | Mimi Walters | Katie Porter | Mimi Walters | KP | Possion error | SD error | MW | |||||||

11 | 11/6 | 0 | 88,765 | 94,998 | -6,233 | 3.39% | 48.3% | 51.7% | ||||||||||||

12 | 11/7 | 1 | 89,980 | 96,054 | -6,074 | 3.26% | 1,215 | 1,056 | 53.5% | 46.5% | all VBM | |||||||||

13 | 11/8 | 2 | 95,602 | 99,639 | -4,037 | 2.07% | 5,622 | 3,585 | 61.1% | 38.9% | all VBM | 59.6% | 0.93% | 40.4% | ||||||

14 | 11/9 | 3 | 101,955 | 103,975 | -2,020 | 0.98% | 6,353 | 4,336 | 59.4% | 40.6% | all VBM | 59.5% | 0.67% | 40.5% | ||||||

15 | 11/10 | 4 | 105,123 | 107,132 | -2,009 | 0.95% | 3,168 | 3,157 | 50.1% | 49.9% | all VBM | 57.4% | 0.59% | 5.1% | 42.6% | |||||

16 | 11/12 | 5 | 109,841 | 110,852 | -1,011 | 0.46% | 4,718 | 3,720 | 55.9% | 44.1% | mix | 57.1% | 0.52% | 4.4% | 42.9% | |||||

17 | 11/13 | 6 | 116,732 | 116,471 | 261 | 0.11% | 6,891 | 5,619 | 55.1% | 44.9% | mix | 56.7% | 0.46% | 4.3% | 43.3% | |||||

18 | 11/14 | 7 | 126,574 | 122,777 | 3,797 | 1.52% | 9,842 | 6,306 | 60.9% | 39.1% | mix | 57.8% | 0.40% | 4.3% | 42.2% | |||||

19 | 11/15 | 8 | 135,237 | 129,034 | 6,203 | 2.35% | 8,663 | 6,257 | 58.1% | 41.9% | mix | 57.8% | 0.36% | 3.9% | 42.2% | |||||

20 | 11/16 | 9 | 143,144 | 135,120 | 8,024 | 2.88% | 7,907 | 6,086 | 56.5% | 43.5% | mix | 57.6% | 0.33% | 3.6% | 42.4% | |||||

21 | 11/17 | 10 | 145,895 | 136,902 | 8,993 | 3.18% | 10,658 | 7,868 | 57.5% | 42.5% | mix | 57.6% | 0.30% | 3.4% | 42.4% | |||||

22 | 11/19 | 11 | 147,001 | 137,571 | 9,430 | 3.31% | 3,857 | 2,451 | 61.1% | 38.9% | mix | 57.8% | 0.29% | 3.4% | 42.2% | |||||

23 | 11/20 | 12 | 147,944 | 138,346 | 9,598 | 3.35% | 2,049 | 1,444 | 58.7% | 41.3% | mix | 57.8% | 0.30% | 3.3% | 42.2% | |||||

24 | 11/21 | 13 | 149,487 | 139,462 | 10,025 | 3.47% | 2,486 | 1,891 | 56.8% | 43.2% | mix | 57.8% | 0.31% | 3.1% | 42.2% | |||||

25 | 11/24 | 14 | 150,443 | 140,130 | 10,313 | 3.55% | 2,499 | 1,784 | 58.3% | 41.7% | mix | 57.8% | 0.31% | 3.0% | 42.2% | |||||

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31 | Forecast Final Count | |||||||||||||||||||

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33 | Katie Porter | Mimi Walters | Margin | % margin | ||||||||||||||||

34 | 152,310 | 51.8% | 141,492 | 48.2% | Mid | 10,818 | 3.7% | |||||||||||||

35 | 152,407 | 51.9% | 141,395 | 48.1% | High | 11,012 | 3.7% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||

36 | 152,213 | 51.8% | 141,589 | 48.2% | Low | 10,624 | 3.6% | |||||||||||||

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54 | Methodology: The analysis uses the average and variance (or standard deviation) in the reported fractions of the vote count from every day after 11/7 to predict the future vote share and its potential variance from that average. The standard deviation is calculated from the days' fractions. If the days' samples were random (the population of counts well mixed), then the variance would be that from Poisson. Since we do not know a priori where the registrar will be counting (and therefore the counting not a random sample), we can only use the data itself to infer the potential variance, which I calculate. That is, different spatial precincts within CD45 have different voting habits, and their is at least some precinct-level grouping of the ballots they are counting. I also use the average of the number of ballots counted after 11/7 to infer the future counts. The high/low counts are for a 1 standard deviation high and 1 standard deviation low each day for a high-fraction or low-fraction for Katie, respectively. Note that high fraction means Katie is up in the majority very quickly. For the low case, it the calculation finds several 1 standard deviation low fractions in a row are needed, which is highly unlikely, but conservative (mathematically conservative that is!). Even in this latter case, Katie is in the majority by Friday's report. (I don't use 11/7 counts as they were very low in number.) | |||||||||||||||||||

55 | Old Forecasts | |||||||||||||||||||

56 | 11/9 | 101,086 | 49.4% | 103,362 | 50.6% | Mid | ||||||||||||||

57 | 11/9 | 101,000 | 49.4% | 103,448 | 50.6% | Low | ||||||||||||||

58 | 11/9 | 101,172 | 49.5% | 103,276 | 50.5% | High | ||||||||||||||

59 | 11/10 | 108,315 | 50.003% | 108,304 | 49.997% | Mid | ||||||||||||||

60 | 11/10 | 108,243 | 49.97% | 108,376 | 50.03% | Low | ||||||||||||||

61 | 11/10 | 108,387 | 50.04% | 108,232 | 49.96% | High | ||||||||||||||

62 | 11/12 | 110,141 | 49.8% | 110,854 | 50.2% | Mid | ||||||||||||||

63 | 11/12 | 109,694 | 49.6% | 111,302 | 50.4% | Low | ||||||||||||||

64 | 11/12 | 110,589 | 50.04% | 110,407 | 49.96% | High | ||||||||||||||

65 | 11/13 | 115,086 | 50.1% | 114,574 | 49.9% | Mid | ||||||||||||||

66 | 11/13 | 114,254 | 49.7% | 115,406 | 50.3% | Low | ||||||||||||||

67 | 11/13 | 115,918 | 50.5% | 113,742 | 49.5% | High | ||||||||||||||

68 | 11/14 | 122,082 | 50.3% | 120,554 | 49.7% | Mid | ||||||||||||||

69 | 11/14 | 121,680 | 50.15% | 120,957 | 49.85% | Low | ||||||||||||||

70 | 11/14 | 122,485 | 51.1% | 117,078 | 48.9% | High |

1 | Registrar After-Election Count Numbers | |
---|---|---|

2 | ||

3 | 11/6 | |

4 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 418,600 |

5 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 0 |

6 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 418,600 |

7 | ||

8 | 11/8 | |

9 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 437,980 |

10 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 33,835 |

11 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 404,145 |

12 | ||

13 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 55,800 |

14 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 33,835 |

15 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 21,965 |

16 | ||

17 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 160,000 |

18 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

19 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 160,000 |

20 | ||

21 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187,800 |

22 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 0 |

23 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 187,800 |

24 | ||

25 | 11/9 | |

26 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 437,980 |

27 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 71,544 |

28 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 366,436 |

29 | ||

30 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 55800 |

31 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 51,835 |

32 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 3,965 |

33 | ||

34 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 160,000 |

35 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

36 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 160,000 |

37 | ||

38 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187800 |

39 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 18,860 |

40 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 168,940 |

41 | ||

42 | 11/10 | |

43 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 439547 |

44 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 110,112 |

45 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 329,435 |

46 | ||

47 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 55,800 |

48 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 51,835 |

49 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 3965 |

50 | ||

51 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 160,000 |

52 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

53 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 160,000 |

54 | ||

55 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187800 |

56 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 57,266 |

57 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 130,534 |

58 | ||

59 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13,200 |

60 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 1,011 |

61 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 12189 |

62 | ||

63 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

64 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 0 |

65 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 20,947 |

66 | ||

67 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 1800 |

68 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

69 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 1,800 |

70 | ||

71 | 11/12 | |

72 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 441,011 |

73 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 138,116 |

74 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 302,895 |

75 | ||

76 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 55,800 |

77 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 55,800 |

78 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 0 |

79 | ||

80 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 160,000 |

81 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

82 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 160,000 |

83 | ||

84 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187,800 |

85 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 81,305 |

86 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 106,495 |

87 | ||

88 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13,200 |

89 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 1,011 |

90 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 12,189 |

91 | ||

92 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

93 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 0 |

94 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 20,947 |

95 | ||

96 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

97 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

98 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |

99 | ||

100 | 11/13 | |

101 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 441,011 |

102 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 179,411 |

103 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 261,600 |

104 | ||

105 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 55,800 |

106 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 55,800 |

107 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 0 |

108 | ||

109 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 160,000 |

110 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

111 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 160,000 |

112 | ||

113 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187800 |

114 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 120,954 |

115 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 66,846 |

116 | ||

117 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13200 |

118 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 2,657 |

119 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 10,543 |

120 | ||

121 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

122 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 0 |

123 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 20,947 |

124 | ||

125 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

126 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

127 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |

128 | ||

129 | 11/14 | |

130 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 441,011 |

131 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 238,551 |

132 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 202,460 |

133 | ||

134 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 85,800 |

135 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 85,800 |

136 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 0 |

137 | ||

138 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 130,000 |

139 | Total provisionals counted: | 0 |

140 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 130,000 |

141 | ||

142 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187,800 |

143 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 147,026 |

144 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 40,774 |

145 | ||

146 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13,200 |

147 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 5,725 |

148 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 7,475 |

149 | ||

150 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

151 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 0 |

152 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 20,947 |

153 | ||

154 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

155 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

156 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |

157 | ||

158 | 11/15 | |

159 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 441,011 |

160 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 284,770 |

161 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 156,241 |

162 | ||

163 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 85,800 |

164 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 85,800 |

165 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 0 |

166 | ||

167 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 130000 |

168 | Total provisionals counted: | 1,944 |

169 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 128,056 |

170 | ||

171 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187800 |

172 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 187,526 |

173 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 274 |

174 | ||

175 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13200 |

176 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 7,947 |

177 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 5,253 |

178 | ||

179 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

180 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 1,553 |

181 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 19,394 |

182 | ||

183 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

184 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

185 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |

186 | ||

187 | 11/16 | |

188 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 471,011 |

189 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 333,155 |

190 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 137,856 |

191 | ||

192 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 115,800 |

193 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 105,800 |

194 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 10,000 |

195 | ||

196 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 130,000 |

197 | Total provisionals counted: | 9,380 |

198 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 120,620 |

199 | ||

200 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187,800 |

201 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 187,526 |

202 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 274 |

203 | ||

204 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13,200 |

205 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 9,947 |

206 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 3,253 |

207 | ||

208 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

209 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 20,502 |

210 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 445 |

211 | ||

212 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

213 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

214 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |

215 | ||

216 | 11/17 | |

217 | Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): | 476,011 |

218 | Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): | 355,362 |

219 | Total Estimated Left to Count: | 120,649 |

220 | ||

221 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: | 120,800 |

222 | Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 115,710 |

223 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 5,090 |

224 | ||

225 | Total estimated number of provisionals to count: | 130,000 |

226 | Total provisionals counted: | 19,928 |

227 | Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: | 110,072 |

228 | ||

229 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: | 187,800 |

230 | Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: | 187,526 |

231 | Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: | 274 |

232 | ||

233 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: | 13,200 |

234 | Total election day paper ballots counted | 11,696 |

235 | Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count | 1,504 |

236 | ||

237 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: | 20,947 |

238 | Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: | 20,502 |

239 | Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: | 445 |

240 | ||

241 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: | 3,264 |

242 | Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: | 0 |

243 | Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: | 3,264 |