1 | Rep | District | WaPo Notes | Biden | Trump | Biden Margin | R-Vote | D-Vote | R-Margin | Difference | Note-1 | Note-2 | Note-3 | QR Code | Image |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | David Schweikert | AZ-01 | 50.1 | 48.6 | 1.5 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-12321281.106,%204142208.638,102100&level=6 |  |  | |||
3 | Juan Ciscomani | AZ-06 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 0.1 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-12456225.939,%203982853.660,102100&level=9 |  |  | |||
4 | John S. Duarte | CA-13 | Over in California’s 13th District, Democrat Adam Gray lost to John Duarte in 2022 by fewer than 600 votes and “overperformed” with independents. In a presidential year with Biden at the top of the ticket and a surefire winner in the state, Gray (or another contender) is well-positioned to pick up the seat in the Central Valley, a far-less-expensive media market than many others. | 54.3 | 43.4 | 10.9 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 0.4 | 11.3 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13606684.445,%204545025.604,102100&level=10 |  |  | ||
5 | David G. Valadao | CA-22 | 55.3 | 42.3 | 13.0 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 3.4 | 16.4 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13287121.309,%204391036.558,102100&level=8 |  |  | |||
6 | Mike Garcia | CA-27 | Elsewhere in the state, Democrats think they have a strong contender for the 27th District in George Whitesides, a former Virgin Galactic CEO and NASA chief of staff, who has already declared his candidacy. (The overwhelming favorite of Democratic regulars, he might not find any credible opponents in California’s top-two primary other than Garcia, the Swing Left-targeted GOP incumbent.) “Democrats hold a 12-point registration edge in the 27th District," the Independent reported, "a once-conservative stretch of suburbs and high desert communities that then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden carried by double digits in the 2020 election.” But Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, will not be an easy opponent. (He won in 2022 by just less than 14,000 votes.) Democrats will try to puncture Garcia’s image as a moderate, pointing out his steady loyalty to Trump. | 55.1 | 42.7 | 12.4 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 6.4 | 18.8 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13133608.903,%204067952.654,102100&level=9 |  |  | ||
7 | Young Kim | CA-40 | 49.9 | 48 | 1.9 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 13.6 | 15.5 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13154515.835,%204024266.424,102100&level=11 |  |  | |||
8 | Michelle Steele | CA-45 | 52.1 | 46 | 6.1 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 4.8 | 10.9 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13102792.037,%203989664.253,102100&level=10 |  |  | |||
9 | Don Bacon | NE-02 | 52.2 | 45.8 | 6.4 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 3 | 9.4 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-10704649.424,%205044562.624,102100&level=9 |  |  | |||
10 | Thomas H. Kean | NJ-07 | 51.1 | 47.3 | 3.8 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 3.2 | 7.0 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8328526.035,%204953253.087,102100&level=9 |  |  | |||
11 | Nick LaLota | NY-01 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 0.2 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8076312.879,%205006863.996,102100&level=9 |  |  | |||
12 | Geroge Santos | NY-03 | The New York 3rd and 4th Districts might be two of the easiest targets for Democrats. Santos says he will run for reelection but is loathed by local Republicans and donors who feel deceived by his serial misrepresentations. Democrat Tom Suozzi won the seat over Santos by double digits in 2020, then left for a gubernatorial bid that failed in the primary. If he returns to 3rd District, Suozzi stands an excellent chance to win back the seat. | 53.6 | 45.4 | 8.2 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 8.2 | 16.4 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8182388.887,%204990069.469,102100&level=10 |  |  | ||
13 | Anthony D'Esposito | NY-04 | D’Esposito, a former New York City police detective and volunteer firefighter, had the perfect résumé for New York’s 4th District in 2022. Now, however, he’s going to have to defend his consistent support for MAGA positions, such as proposals to cut domestic spending (including law enforcement) and to take funding away from the Internal Revenue Service to track down rich tax cheats. | 56.8 | 42.2 | 14.6 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 3.6 | 18.2 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8193960.583,%204958304.383,102100&level=10 |  |  | ||
14 | Michael Lawler | NY-17 | Even with an unfriendly redrawn district, Democrats came within about 3,200 votes of winning the 17th in New York, another state Biden will win going away in 2024. Sean Patrick Maloney, the incumbent in 2022 and the House Democratic campaign chief, ran a dreadful campaign by many accounts. Democrats would be greatly aided if the district lines were rejiggered. However, choosing the right candidate is even more critical. Mondaire Jones, a Democratic congressman who abandoned the 17th after the lines were redrawn, only to lose in a Lower Manhattan-Brooklyn primary, might pursue his former seat. But that sort of opportunism might not sit well with voters. | 54.5 | 44.4 | 10.1 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 0.6 | 10.7 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8227208.446,%205032929.834,102100&level=10 |  |  | ||
15 | Marcus J. Molinaro | NY-19 | 51.3 | 46.7 | 4.6 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 2.2 | 6.8 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8288052.087,%205200435.974,102100&level=8 |  |  | |||
16 | Brandon Williams | NY-22 | 52.6 | 45.2 | 7.4 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 1.6 | 9.0 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8422075.683,%205288814.720,102100&level=7 |  |  | |||
17 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | OR-05 | In Oregon’s 5th District, the incumbent Republican, Chavez-DeRemer, won by fewer than 7,500 votes in 2022, in a state likely to go heavily for Biden in 2024. The defeated Democratic candidate in 2022, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an emergency response coordinator, pulled off a stunning upset in the primary against the previous incumbent, Kurt Schrader, a centrist who might have been able to hold the seat. Whether Schrader returns or another candidate steps forward, Democrats must keep the focus on Republicans. | 53.2 | 44.4 | 8.8 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 2.2 | 11.0 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-13587179.656,%205627510.214,102100&level=7 |  |  | ||
18 | Brian Fitzpatrick | PA-01 | 51.8 | 47.2 | 4.6 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 14.6 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8362577.705,%204911354.716,102100&level=9 |  |  | |||
19 | Jen A. Kiggans | VA-02 | 50.1 | 48.2 | 1.9 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | https://demlabs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5bc85dcc8ad34d39b8440e033a809104¢er=-8453326.054,%204484599.652,102100&level=8 |  |  |