Coronavirus - exponential growth modelling (April 2020)


1		DATE	Actual cases	Daily increase	The most recent multiplier (02/04/2020) is	Projections for the next 10 days using lowest multiplier
56	M	16/03/2020	101,592	12,875	1.14512438427810		This graph projects numbers based on
57	T	17/03/2020	117,340	15,748	1.15501220568549		the lowest multiplier from the previous 3 weeks (6th Apr)
58	W	18/03/2020	137,894	20,554	1.17516618373956		1.06136956815562
59	T	19/03/2020	163,996	26,102	1.18929032445212		which is a 6.37% daily increase in numbers
60	F	20/03/2020	194,590	30,594	1.18655333056904		This would mean a doubling of numbers every
61	S	21/03/2020	223,982	29,392	1.15104578858112		11.64
62	S	22/03/2020	256,367	32,385	1.14458751149646		days
63	M	23/03/2020	297,659	41,292	1.16106597182945		The most recent multiplier (06/04/2020) is
64	T	24/03/2020	341,381	43,722	1.14688620199624		1.06136956815562
65	W	25/03/2020	389,750	48,369	1.14168626842150		which means there was a daily percentage increase of
66	T	26/03/2020	450,525	60,775	1.15593329057088		6.14	percent
67	F	27/03/2020	514,972	64,447	1.14304866544587		on the previous day's number. This suggests number of infections
68	S	28/03/2020	581,688	66,716	1.12955267470853		is currently doubling every
69	S	29/03/2020	641,951	60,263	1.10360021179739		11.64
70	M	30/03/2020	703,220	61,269	1.09552909801527		days. This means numbers are currently growing
71	T	31/03/2020	776,807	73,587	1.10464292824436		SAME RATE AS
72	W	01/04/2020	853,643	76,836	1.09891259991220		the projected graph
73	T	02/04/2020	933,476	79,833	1.09352035921339
74	F	03/04/2020	1,035,023	101,547	1.10878372877289
75	S	04/04/2020	1,119,814	84,791	1.08192185101201
76	S	05/04/2020	1,191,193	71,379	1.06374183569771
77	M	06/04/2020	1,264,296	73,103	1.06136956815562
78	T	07/04/2020		-1,264,296	0.00000000000000	1,341,885
79	W	08/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,424,236
80	T	09/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,511,641
81	F	10/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,604,410
82	S	11/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,702,872
83	S	12/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,807,376
84	M	13/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	1,918,294
85	T	14/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	2,036,019
86	W	15/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	2,160,969
87	T	16/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!	2,293,586
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1	Hi there,
2	I've created this set of spreadsheets, inspired by videos from Chris Martenson on exponential growth (in his brilliant "Crash Course"):
3	https://youtu.be/ijf7UxI7EFE
4	and later inspired by Chris's mention of Ken Standfield's graphs in the Peak Prosperity regular daily coronavirus video updates:
5	https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom/videos
6	https://www.linkedin.com/in/kenstandfield/detail/recent-activity/posts/
7	I'm not making any predictions, but merely forward-projecting at current growth rates. It's just maths!
8	Let me know what you think, or if you feel I've made any mistakes.
9	Ian Usher
10
11	UPDATE 26th March 2020
12	This is the second version of these charts. I began in early March, projecting out to the end of March. My figures were pretty close.
13	The projections obviously became more accurate as we approached the end of the month.
14	You can see the original charts here: https://www.ianusher.com/exponential-March
15	From here on I'm going to be creating a daily projection looking 10 days forward from actual figures from the previous day.
16	I'll only be using the lowest multiplier since 21st Feb, as hopefully lock-downs will help to bring the daily increase down.
17	On the other hand, more testing may also push the numbers up, I just don't know.
18	Another consideration with exponential growth is that we'll soon be beyond the ability to test numbers to these levels, which will distort figures downwards too.
19	It's all just mathematical modelling, to try to give you some idea of how exponential growth works, and where we might be heading.
20	See my original blog post about this here:
21	https://www.ianusher.com/freedom-lifestyle/the-astounding-nature-of-exponential-growth/
22	Stay at home, stay safe,
23	Ian
24
25	The facts to today (data over to the right of this chart)			Date	Actual number of cases	Daily increase	Daily multiplier
26				01/03/2020	8,555	1,775	1.26179941002950
27				02/03/2020	10,288	1,733	1.20257159555815
28				03/03/2020	12,742	2,454	1.23853032659409
29				04/03/2020	14,901	2,159	1.16943964840684
30				05/03/2020	17,867	2,966	1.19904704382256
31				06/03/2020	21,393	3,526	1.19734706442044
32				07/03/2020	25,403	4,010	1.18744449118871		Lowest multiplier since 21st Feb
33				08/03/2020	29,255	3,852	1.15163563358658		1.13507003300919
34				09/03/2020	33,627	4,372	1.14944453939498
35				10/03/2020	38,169	4,542	1.13507003300919
36				11/03/2020	45,411	7,242	1.18973512536351
37				12/03/2020	53,763	8,352	1.18392019554733
38				13/03/2020	64,659	10,896	1.20266726187155
39				14/03/2020	75,778	11,119	1.17196368641643
40				15/03/2020	88,717	12,939	1.17074876613265
41				16/03/2020	101,592	12,875	1.14512438427810
42				17/03/2020	117,340	15,748	1.15501220568549
43				18/03/2020	137,894	20,554	1.17516618373956
44				19/03/2020	163,996	26,102	1.18929032445212
45				20/03/2020	194,590	30,594	1.18655333056904
46				21/03/2020	223,982	29,392	1.15104578858112
47	Daily multipliers			22/03/2020	256,367	32,385	1.14458751149646
48				23/03/2020	297,659	41,292	1.16106597182945
49				24/03/2020	341,381	43,722	1.14688620199624
50				25/03/2020	389,750	48,369	1.14168626842150
51				26/03/2020	450,525	60,775	1.15593329057088
52				27/03/2020	514,972	64,447	1.14304866544587
53				28/03/2020	581,688	66,716	1.12955267470853
54				29/03/2020	641,951	60,263	1.10360021179739
55				30/03/2020	703,220	61,269	1.09544186394289
56				31/03/2020	776,807	73,587	1.10464292824436
57				01/04/2020	853,643	76,836	1.09891259991220
58				02/04/2020	933,476	79,833	1.09352035921339
59				03/04/2020	1,035,023	101,547	1.10878372877289
60				04/04/2020	1,119,814	84,791	1.08192185101201
61				05/04/2020	1,191,193	71,379	1.06374183569771
62				06/04/2020	1,264,296	73,103	1.06136956815562
63				07/04/2020		-1,264,296	0.00000000000000
64				08/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!
65				09/04/2020		0	#DIV/0!
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73	* Data source:		a = b to the power x
74	https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina		2 = 1.189207 to the power 4
75
76	Daily multiplier for doubling every x amount of days:		which means to double over 4 periods, you need to increase at each interval by a factor of 1.189207
77	Source:		or, in terms of infections, to double numbers every 4 days you need a daily increase of 18.9% in numbers
78	https://www.omnicalculator.com/math/exponent
79	3 days	1.259920	Some maths formulas - how many days to double?			value	base	exponent
80	4 days	1.189207				2	1.13507003300919	5.471019
81	5 days	1.148698				doubling	daily increase	days to double
82	6 days	1.122462
83	7 days	1.104090	LOG(value, base)				Formula >>>	5.471018786
84	8 days	1.090508	POWER(base, exponent)		Formula >>>	2.000000054
85	9 days	1.080060
86	10 days	1.071773
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