2018 college football statistical profiles


1	2018 Football Study Hall Stat Profiles
2	Stats created by Bill Connelly and SB Nation
3	Data provided by SportSource Analytics
4	Updated through games of 10/6/2018
5	For more on college football advanced stats, visit Football Study Hall.
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1	2018 Air Force Falcons advanced statistical profile
2	Record: 2-4 (0-3) \| Second-Order Wins: 2.2 (0.2) \| Avg. projected final record: 5-7
3	Conference (Division): MWC (Mountain)
4								S&P+ Rk:		100
5	Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.							Off. S&P+ Rk:		117
6	For previous years' stat profiles, go here.							Def. S&P+ Rk:		54
7	Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.							Special Teams S&P+ Rk:		87
8								Résumé S&P+ Rk:		55
9								Strength of Schedule Rk:		80
10	2018 Schedule & Results
11
12	Completed Games
13	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W/L	Box Score	Postgame Win Expectancy	Adj. Scoring Margin	Percentile Performance* (Off., Def.)			S&P+ Rank by week
14	0												Preseason	111
15	1	9/1/18	Stony Brook	N/A	38-0	W	link	99%	24.5	74% (26%, 95%)			After 1	77
16	2	9/8/18	at Florida Atlantic	63	27-33	L	link	0%	-26.0	16% (9%, 11%)			After 2	103
17	3												After 3	106
18	4	9/22/18	at Utah State	20	32-42	L	link	0%	-30.1	35% (49%, 8%)			After 4	114
19	5	9/29/18	Nevada	92	25-28	L	link	1%	-21.9	15% (7%, 39%)			After 5	117
20	6	10/6/18	Navy	101	35-7	W	link	100%	34.2	83% (67%, 94%)			After 6	101
21	7	10/12/18	at San Diego State	51	17-21	L	link	15%	-10.4	34% (8%, 72%)			After 7	100
22
23	Upcoming Games
24	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Proj. W/L	Proj. Margin	Win Prob.	Cumulative Proj. Wins	6	Win Total Odds (regular season only)		Conference Win Total Odds		5
25	8	10/19/18	at UNLV	106	L	-0.1	50%	2.5	5	2	3%	0	5%	4
26	9	10/27/18	Boise State	36	L	-12.8	23%	2.7	4	3	16%	1	20%	3
27	10	11/3/18	at Army	75	L	-8.6	31%	3.0	3	4	30%	2	35%	2
28	11	11/10/18	New Mexico	85	L	-1.6	46%	3.5	2	5	30%	3	28%	1
29	12	11/17/18	at Wyoming	99	L	-2.7	44%	3.9	1	6	16%	4	11%	0
30	13	11/22/18	Colorado State	107	W	4.9	61%	4.5	0	7	4%	5	1%	-1
31	14								-1	8	0%			-2
32									-2					#REF!
33	15
34	5									Odds of bowl eligibility		21%
35	* Note: because opponent adjustments are still pretty tenuous, some single-game percentiles might look a little strange.									Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses		0%
36										Odds of finishing with 0-2 wins		3%
37
38
39	Five Factors
40				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
41	EFFICIENCY		Success Rate*	37.6%	110	36.7%	24		When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
42	EFFICIENCY		Marginal Efficiency*	-7.9%	115	-5.5%	58
43	EXPLOSIVENESS		IsoPPP*	0.96	125	1.36	117
44			Marginal Explosiveness*	-0.13	124	0.19	114
45	FIELD POSITION		Avg. FP	30.3	52	30.4	92
46	FINISHING DRIVES		Pts. Per Scoring Opp.	4.44	82	4.63	79
47	TURNOVERS		Expected TO Margin	0.0	74	TO Luck (PPG):	0.8
48	TURNOVERS		Actual TO Margin	+1	56	TO Luck (PPG):	0.8
49
50	The Basics
51				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
52	RUSHING	Rushing marginal efficiency*		-9.8%	103	-15.4%	7		PASSING	Passing marginal efficiency*		-1.1%	74	4.6%	121
53		Rushing marginal explosiveness*		-0.24	118	-0.04	87			Passing marginal explosiveness*		26.6%	46	32.2%	106
54		Opportunity rate*		44.3%	91	35.5%	6			Passing completion rate*		48.9%	123	60.7%	82
56		Stuff rate*		16.2%	29	26.0%	13			Sack rate*		5.4%	51	3.6%	119
57
58				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
59	STANDARD DOWNS	SD marginal efficiency*		-6.5%	98	-4.4%	74		PASSING DOWNS	PD marginal efficiency*		-11.4%	126	-7.3%	34
60		SD marginal explosiveness*		-0.22	129	0.31	128			PD marginal explosiveness*		0.29	25	-0.16	19
61		SD line yards per carry*		2.52	67	1.59	2			PD line yards per carry*		2.34	98	1.38	7
62		SD sack rate*		5.1%	71	2.1%	119			PD sack rate*		5.7%	42	5.6%	98
63
64	Bill Walsh Stats
65				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
66	OPEN PLAY	Standard Downs success rate		46.5%	83	42.1%	32		THIRD DOWN	Third-and-long percentage		35.3%	4	55.3%	38
67		Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd		62.4%	113	70.4%	90			Third-and-short percentage		15.7%	14	6.6%	24
68		Big-play rate (20+ yards)		4.5%	122	8.1%	87			Third-and-long success rate		25.0%	66	19.1%	28
69		Avg. third-down distance		7.2	56	7.7	55			Third-and-medium success rate		26.0%	129	44.8%	60
70		Third down success rate		31.8%	119	32.8%	29			Third-and-short success rate		87.5%	20	60.0%	14
71
72				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
73	BACKED UP	Backed up success rate		5.6%	128	23.5%	31					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
74	BACKED UP	Backed up turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	18		RED ZONE	21- to 30-yard line success rate		30.8%	118	44.8%	84
75										11- to 20-yard line success rate		34.2%	94	25.0%	15
76				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk			Inside 10 success rate		51.4%	69	46.2%	51
77	BLITZ DOWNS	Blitz down success rate		20.6%	124	22.6%	25			Inside 10 turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	47
78		Blitz down big-play rate		5.5%	105	6.5%	45			First-and-goal success rate		41.7%	106	83.3%	123
79		Blitz down sack rate		3.1%	15	6.7%	94			Goal line success rate		85.7%	20	66.7%	60
80
81	Individual Stats
82
83	INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS		Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp Rate	Yards/Comp	Sack Rate	Yards/Att.	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
84			Isaiah Sanders	6'2, 210	JR	24	45	340	1-2	53.3%	14.2	6.3%	6.8	2.4%	0.18	1
85			Donald Hammond III	6'2, 210	SO	13	26	224	2-0	50.0%	17.2	0.0%	8.6	4.5%	0.41	2
86			Arion Worthman	5'11, 210	SR	6	16	77	0-0	37.5%	12.8	11.1%	3.4	-8.1%	0.13	3
87
88	INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	Yards/Carry	TD	Hlt Yds/Opp	Opp Rate	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	Fum (lost)	No
89			Cole Fagan	FB	6'1, 230	JR	84	342	4.1	2	3.67	34.5%	-10.0%	-0.03	0 (0)	1
90			Isaiah Sanders	QB	6'2, 210	JR	63	190	3.0	2	1.95	36.5%	-13.6%	-0.04	1 (0)	2
91			Kadin Remsberg	RB	5'9, 185	SO	46	256	5.6	1	3.01	71.7%	7.7%	-0.03	2 (0)	3
92			Ronald Cleveland	WR	5'9, 180	SR	33	131	4.0	2	6.30	45.5%	0.1%	-0.05	0 (0)	4
93			Donald Hammond III	QB	6'2, 210	SO	33	105	3.2	5	2.95	33.3%	-7.1%	-0.06	0 (0)	5
94			Arion Worthman	QB	5'11, 210	SR	27	103	3.8	1	3.75	40.7%	-10.3%	-0.14	3 (3)	6
95
96	INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Yds/Catch	Yds/Target	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
97			Ronald Cleveland	WR	5'9, 180	SR	22	12	141	1	54.5%	11.8	6.4	-0.6%	0.18	1
98			Marcus Bennett	WR		SR	19	12	238	1	63.2%	19.8	12.5	23.7%	0.46	2
99			Geraud Sanders	WR	6'3, 210	JR	15	8	131	0	53.3%	16.4	8.7	14.8%	0.12	3
100			Kade Waguespack	TE	6'2, 225	JR	11	4	47	1	36.4%	11.8	4.3	-9.0%	0.00	4
101			Andrew Smith	WR	5'8, 170	SR	6	2	44	0	33.3%	22.0	7.3	-13.6%	-0.19	5
102			Joseph Saucier	RB	5'10, 200	JR	4	1	15	0	25.0%	15.0	3.8	-15.5%	0.28	6
103			Kadin Remsberg	RB	5'9, 185	SO	4	2	1	0	50.0%	0.5	0.3	-27.8%	0.00	7
104			Jake Matkovich	WR	6'5, 195	SR	1	1	15	0	100.0%	15.0	15.0	59.8%	0.54	8
105			Nolan Eriksen	RB	5'9, 195	JR	1	1	9	0	100.0%	9.0	9.0	-23.6%	0.00	9
106			Taven Birdow	FB	6'1, 220	JR	1	0	0	NULL	0.0%		0.0	-21.8%	0.00	10
107																11
108
109	INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS (defense-only -- no special teams tackles)		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	TFLs	Sacks	Run Stuffs	INT (PBU)	FF	Yards/Play	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
110			Jeremy Fejedelem	DB	5'10, 185	JR	38.0	1.0	0.0	2.5	1 (0)	0	8.7	28.0%	-0.35	1
111			Brody Bagnall	ILB	6'2, 235	SR	28.5	2.0	0.0	5.5	0 (0)	0	4.6	-9.2%	-0.15	2
112			Garrett Kauppila	DB	6'2, 205	SR	20.5	1.5	0.0	2.5	0 (4)	0	8.3	13.2%	0.22	3
113			Kyle Johnson	ILB		JR	19.0	5.0	0.0	5.0	1 (1)	0	1.8	-21.9%	-0.42	4
114			Jordan Jackson	DT	6'5, 270	SO	17.5	7.5	0.0	9.0	0 (0)	0	0.5	-29.0%	-0.39	5
115			Dailen Sutton	DB	6'1, 175	SR	17.0	0.5	0.0	1.5	0 (2)	0	8.8	7.4%	0.06	6
116			Kyle Floyd	OLB	6'2, 215	SR	14.0	2.5	1.0	1.5	0 (0)	0	4.7	-0.8%	-0.18	7
117			Lakota Wills	LB	6'3, 235	SO	10.5	3.0	2.0	4.0	0 (0)	1	1.5	-27.8%	-0.33	8
118			Cody Gessler	DL	5'11, 260	SR	10.5	3.0	0.0	3.0	0 (0)	0	1.3	-20.8%	-0.30	9
119			Micah Capra	DL	6'2, 275	SR	10.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0 (0)	1	1.2	-40.3%	NULL	10
120			Zane Lewis	DB	6'1, 190	JR	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1 (2)	0	12.4	32.5%	-0.04	11
121			Mosese Fifita	DL	6'1, 312	JR	10.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	0 (0)	0	3.2	-16.0%	-0.80	12
122			Blake Dailey	ILB	6'3, 220	SR	9.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0 (0)	0	3.4	-3.5%	-0.33	13
123			R.J. Jackson	OLB	6'3, 235	SR	6.0	2.5	1.0	2.5	0 (0)	0	0.7	-19.6%	0.00	14
124			Milton Bugg III	DB	5'9, 165	SO	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (2)	0	12.0	32.7%	-0.10	15
125			Grant Donaldson	OLB	6'3, 225	SO	5.0	1.5	0.0	1.5	0 (0)	0	1.4	-39.2%	NULL	16
126			Ross Connors	DB	5'11, 185	SR	5.0	0.5	0.5	0.5	0 (0)	0	6.7	8.5%	0.17	17
127			Danny Highland	DL	6'2, 260	SR	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (1)	0	9.1	20.1%	-0.22	18
128			Parker Noren	LB	6'2, 210	SO	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	5.8	4.6%	0.08	19
129			Grant Theil	DB	6'1, 195	JR	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	3.5	-44.2%	NULL	20
130
131	Footprint Stats
132
133	OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category	Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg		DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category		Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg
134			Standard Downs run rate*	87.1%	4	59.2%				Standard Downs run rate*		54.8%	96	58.9%
135			Passing Downs run rate*	58.6%	5	34.3%				Passing Downs run rate*		43.2%	12	34.3%
136			Adj. Pace**	-1.93	31	0.00				Overall Havoc Rate		15.3%	83	16.4%
137			% of Solo Tackles	60.2%	125	72.9%				DL Havoc Rate		4.3%	79	5.1%
138			Havoc Rate Allowed	12.5%	23	15.6%				LB Havoc Rate		5.8%	35	4.6%
139			** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate.							DB Havoc Rate		5.1%	104	6.6%
140										PD to INC		27.3%	110	34.4%
141
142	Special Teams
143
144	SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS		Category	Rate	Rk
145			FG value (per kick)	-0.14	91
146			Punt efficiency	53.1%	91
147			Kickoff efficiency	80.7%	65
148			Punt return efficiency	33.3%	105
149			Kick return efficiency	71.4%	13
150
151	PLACE-KICKING		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	%	FG	%	Net Pts/FG	No
152			Jake Koehnke	#N/A	JR	10-10	100.0%	2-4	50.0%	-0.48	1
153			Matthew Philichi	5'9, 180	SR	9-9	100.0%	1-2	50.0%	0.54	2	SR = success rate
154
155	PUNTING		Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg.	TB	FC	I20	Opp. Ret-Avg	Punt SR	Net Yds/Punt	No
156			Charlie Scott	6'1, 195	JR	26	39.0	3	11	6	5 - 7.6	57.7%	35.2	1
157			Jake Koehnke	#N/A	JR	4	35.8	0	2	2	1 - 3.0	50.0%	35.0	2
158
159	KICKOFFS		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg.	TB	TB%	OOB	Opp. Ret-Avg	Kickoff SR	Net Yds/Kick	No
160			Jake Koehnke	#N/A	JR	19	61.3	8	42.1%	2	7 - 14.3	84.2%	43.2	1
161			Matthew Philichi	5'9, 180	SR	12	62.3	6	50.0%	0	6 - 19.5	75.0%	40.1	2
162
163	PUNT RETURNS		Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	PR SR	No
164			Ronald Cleveland	5'9, 180	SR	8	10.4	0	12	25.0%	1
165			Garrett Kauppila	6'2, 205	SR	1	19.0	0	0	100.0%	2
166			Lakota Wills	6'3, 235	SO	0	NULL	1	0		3
167
168	KICK RETURNS		Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	KR SR	No
169			Joseph Saucier	5'10, 200	JR	2	39.0	0	1	50.0%	1
170			Ronald Cleveland	5'9, 180	SR	2	22.5	0	2	50.0%	2
171			Garrett Amy	5'8, 190	SR	2	11.0	0	0	100.0%	3
172
179
180	Air Force	Air Force


1	2018 Akron Zips advanced statistical profile
2	Record: 2-3 (0-2) \| Second-Order Wins: 1.3 (-0.7) \| Avg. projected final record: 4-7
3	Conference (Division): MAC (East)
4								S&P+ Rk:		119
5	Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.							Off. S&P+ Rk:		128
6	For previous years' stat profiles, go here.							Def. S&P+ Rk:		58
7	Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.							Special Teams S&P+ Rk:		52
8								Résumé S&P+ Rk:		95
9								Strength of Schedule Rk:		81
10	2018 Schedule & Results
11
12	Completed Games
13	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W/L	Box Score	Postgame Win Expectancy	Adj. Scoring Margin	Percentile Performance* (Off., Def.)			S&P+ Rank by week
14	0												Preseason	118
15	1												After 1	116
16	2	9/8/18	Morgan State	N/A	41-7	W	link	100%	33.7	30% (5%, 94%)			After 2	82
17	3	9/15/18	at Northwestern	68	39-34	W	link	24%	-7.1	10% (9%, 56%)			After 3	104
18	4	9/22/18	at Iowa State	44	13-26	L	link	7%	-15.1	18% (21%, 75%)			After 4	111
19	5												After 5	113
20	6	10/6/18	Miami-OH	66	17-41	L	link	1%	-24.0	17% (32%, 38%)			After 6	116
21	7	10/13/18	at Buffalo	50	6-24	L	link	0%	-26.9	26% (15%, 52%)			After 7	119
22
23	Upcoming Games
24	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Proj. W/L	Proj. Margin	Win Prob.	Cumulative Proj. Wins	6	Win Total Odds (regular season only)		Conference Win Total Odds		6
25	8	10/20/18	at Kent State	123	L	0.0	50%	2.5	5	2	3%	0	3%	5
26	9	10/27/18	Central Michigan	118	W	1.5	54%	3.0	4	3	16%	1	16%	4
27	10	11/1/18	Northern Illinois	79	L	-8.6	31%	3.3	3	4	32%	2	32%	3
28	11	11/10/18	at Eastern Michigan	70	L	-14.9	19%	3.5	2	5	30%	3	30%	2
29	12	11/17/18	Bowling Green	128	W	8.1	68%	4.2	1	6	15%	4	15%	1
30	13	11/23/18	at Ohio	94	L	-10.9	26%	4.5	0	7	3%	5	3%	0
31	14								-1	8	0%	6	0%	-1
32									-2					#REF!
33	15
34	4									Odds of bowl eligibility		18%
35	* Note: because opponent adjustments are still pretty tenuous, some single-game percentiles might look a little strange.									Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses		0%
36										Odds of finishing with 0-2 wins		3%
37
38
39	Five Factors
40				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
41	EFFICIENCY		Success Rate*	32.3%	128	39.3%	50		When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
42	EFFICIENCY		Marginal Efficiency*	-9.3%	123	-6.4%	51
43	EXPLOSIVENESS		IsoPPP*	1.17	71	1.12	50
44			Marginal Explosiveness*	-0.06	112	-0.03	45
45	FIELD POSITION		Avg. FP	29.5	79	33.9	125
46	FINISHING DRIVES		Pts. Per Scoring Opp.	3.75	121	4.03	36
47	TURNOVERS		Expected TO Margin	-3.1	112	TO Luck (PPG):	3.1
48	TURNOVERS		Actual TO Margin	0	64	TO Luck (PPG):	3.1
49
50	The Basics
51				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
52	RUSHING	Rushing marginal efficiency*		-11.8%	112	-11.8%	26		PASSING	Passing marginal efficiency*		-6.9%	114	-1.0%	68
53		Rushing marginal explosiveness*		-0.28	127	-0.08	72			Passing marginal explosiveness*		14.6%	81	1.3%	21
54		Opportunity rate*		44.0%	94	39.8%	18			Passing completion rate*		51.7%	119	63.1%	104
56		Stuff rate*		23.1%	111	19.9%	55			Sack rate*		6.2%	61	2.4%	128
57
58				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
59	STANDARD DOWNS	SD marginal efficiency*		-10.9%	126	-7.5%	36		PASSING DOWNS	PD marginal efficiency*		-6.7%	106	-3.9%	74
60		SD marginal explosiveness*		-0.06	107	-0.09	20			PD marginal explosiveness*		-0.07	106	0.16	84
61		SD line yards per carry*		1.61	130	2.48	73			PD line yards per carry*		2.89	52	2.46	48
62		SD sack rate*		2.6%	27	4.1%	79			PD sack rate*		10.3%	94	0.0%	130
63
64	Bill Walsh Stats
65				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
66	OPEN PLAY	Standard Downs success rate		38.2%	124	44.5%	51		THIRD DOWN	Third-and-long percentage		50.7%	79	53.2%	51
67		Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd		63.9%	106	66.7%	54			Third-and-short percentage		9.9%	77	7.6%	32
68		Big-play rate (20+ yards)		5.6%	113	4.7%	12			Third-and-long success rate		25.0%	66	23.8%	66
69		Avg. third-down distance		7.8	86	7.6	62			Third-and-medium success rate		28.6%	128	45.2%	62
70		Third down success rate		34.5%	96	43.1%	101			Third-and-short success rate		85.7%	29	83.3%	99
71
72				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
73	BACKED UP	Backed up success rate		16.7%	116	40.0%	82					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
74	BACKED UP	Backed up turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	18		RED ZONE	21- to 30-yard line success rate		36.7%	94	31.7%	25
75										11- to 20-yard line success rate		22.2%	129	17.9%	4
76				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk			Inside 10 success rate		0.0%	130	62.5%	110
77	BLITZ DOWNS	Blitz down success rate		22.4%	116	32.8%	99			Inside 10 turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	47
78		Blitz down big-play rate		10.3%	42	6.9%	52			First-and-goal success rate				80.0%	121
79		Blitz down sack rate		11.4%	82	2.3%	128			Goal line success rate				85.7%	109
80
81	Individual Stats
82
83	INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS		Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp Rate	Yards/Comp	Sack Rate	Yards/Att.	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
84			Kato Nelson	6'1, 215	SO	76	146	980	7-6	52.1%	12.9	7.0%	5.9	-4.6%	0.17	1
85			Alex Ramart	6'3, 225	FR	2	5	5	0-1	40.0%	2.5	0.0%	1.0	-42.4%	NULL	2
86																3
87
88	INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	Yards/Carry	TD	Hlt Yds/Opp	Opp Rate	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	Fum (lost)	No
89			Kato Nelson	QB	6'1, 215	SO	56	262	4.7	0	3.76	55.4%	3.8%	-0.05	2 (1)	1
90			Van Edwards, Jr.	RB	5'9, 200	SR	56	244	4.4	2	4.70	42.9%	-8.1%	-0.04	1 (0)	2
91			Deltron Sands	RB	5'8, 195	JR	17	61	3.6	0	5.18	35.3%	-21.1%	-0.36	0 (0)	3
92			Keyondre White	RB	5'10, 225	FR	6	21	3.5	0	2.00	33.3%	-15.1%	-0.47	0 (0)	4
93			Kwadarrius Smith	WR	5'9, 170	SR	5	8	1.6	0	0.90	20.0%	-31.5%	-0.99	1 (1)	5
94			Mykel Traylor-Bennett	WR	6'3, 230	SR	4	9	2.3	0	0.50	50.0%	5.2%	-0.12	0 (0)	6
95
96	INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Yds/Catch	Yds/Target	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
97			Andre Williams	WR	5'10, 185	SO	35	19	289	3	54.3%	15.2	8.3	3.2%	0.46	1
98			Jonah Morris	WR	6'4, 200	SO	25	12	214	1	48.0%	17.8	8.6	-9.9%	0.84	2
99			Kwadarrius Smith	WR	5'9, 170	SR	21	12	193	1	57.1%	16.1	9.2	11.2%	0.06	3
100			Nate Stewart	WR	6'2, 215	SO	21	14	146	1	66.7%	10.4	7.0	4.8%	-0.32	4
101			Mykel Traylor-Bennett	WR	6'3, 230	SR	11	4	23	0	36.4%	5.8	2.1	-32.3%	-0.24	5
102			Van Edwards, Jr.	RB	5'9, 200	SR	9	5	45	0	55.6%	9.0	5.0	8.4%	-0.35	6
103			Newman Williams	TE	6'2, 260	SR	4	0	0	NULL	0.0%		0.0	-43.7%	0.00	7
104			Maverick Wolfley	TE	6'3, 260	FR	3	3	48	1	100.0%	16.0	16.0	60.8%	0.41	8
105			Brandon Junk	TE	6'2, 245	JR	2	2	5	0	100.0%	2.5	2.5	-39.9%	0.00	9
106			Daishawn Brimage	WR	6'0, 195	FR	2	1	1	0	50.0%	1.0	0.5	-32.3%	0.00	10
107			M.J. McGriff	WR	5'8, 190	SO	2	0	0	NULL	0.0%		0.0	-43.2%	0.00	11
108
109	INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS (defense-only -- no special teams tackles)		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	TFLs	Sacks	Run Stuffs	INT (PBU)	FF	Yards/Play	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
110			John Lako	LB	6'2, 230	JR	33.5	3.0	0.0	4.0	0 (1)	0	4.3	-8.4%	-0.36	1
111			Ulysees Gilbert III	LB	6'1, 230	SR	25.5	2.0	0.0	3.5	0 (1)	0	5.4	7.0%	-0.43	2
112			Brian Bell	LB	6'3, 235	SR	25.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0 (5)	1	4.9	1.0%	-0.36	3
113			Jamal Davis II	DE	6'4, 240	SR	22.5	3.0	1.0	6.5	1 (4)	1	2.2	-24.1%	-0.60	4
114			Jordan George	DB	6'0, 205	SR	22.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	0 (2)	0	9.4	11.1%	0.30	5
115			Kyron Brown	CB	6'1, 195	SR	18.5	1.0	0.0	1.5	1 (4)	0	5.5	5.6%	-0.32	6
116			Alvin Davis	CB	5'9, 175	JR	15.5	1.0	0.0	1.0	4 (1)	1	11.0	36.0%	-0.18	7
117			James King	LB	6'2, 210	JR	12.5	0.0	0.0	2.5	0 (0)	0	4.6	3.9%	-0.37	8
118			Walter Brady	DE	6'3, 267	SR	12.0	1.0	0.0	3.0	0 (0)	0	1.8	-36.8%	-0.22	9
119			Brennan Williams	DL	6'1, 295	SR	11.5	2.5	0.5	3.0	0 (0)	0	4.2	-1.5%	-0.44	10
120			Denzel Butler	DB	5'9, 185	JR	10.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	9.7	36.1%	-0.34	11
121			Brock Boxen	DL	6'3, 295	SR	9.0	1.5	0.5	1.5	0 (2)	0	1.0	-37.2%	0.00	12
122			Darian Dailey	CB	5'11, 180	SR	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	13.6	29.5%	0.38	13
123			Zaire Jacobs	DB	5'11, 195	SO	8.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	18.2	47.4%	0.64	14
124			Josh Ward	LB	6'2, 240	JR	8.0	4.5	2.0	4.0	0 (0)	2	-1.1	-18.2%	-0.31	15
125			Bubba Arslanian	LB	5'9, 220	FR	5.0	2.0	0.0	3.0	0 (0)	0	3.4	2.3%	0.09	16
126			Davon'te Jest	DL	6'1, 300	JR	4.5	1.5	0.0	2.0	0 (0)	0	1.9	-28.6%	-0.27	17
127			Andy Jean-Baptiste	DL	6'5, 275	JR	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.5	0 (0)	0	2.1	-17.9%	-0.56	18
128			Brandon Bischof	LB	6'1, 220	FR	2.5	0.5	0.0	0.5	0 (0)	0	2.8	-14.5%	-0.49	19
129			Jordyn Riley	DB	5'10, 190	FR	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	15.8	18.0%	0.36	20
130
131	Footprint Stats
132
133	OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category	Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg		DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category		Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg
134			Standard Downs run rate*	54.7%	91	59.2%				Standard Downs run rate*		56.8%	82	58.9%
135			Passing Downs run rate*	37.6%	42	34.3%				Passing Downs run rate*		33.9%	65	34.3%
136			Adj. Pace**	1.71	97	0.00				Overall Havoc Rate		15.2%	84	16.4%
137			% of Solo Tackles	77.5%	34	72.9%				DL Havoc Rate		4.9%	63	5.1%
138			Havoc Rate Allowed	21.1%	126	15.6%				LB Havoc Rate		6.0%	33	4.6%
139			** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate.							DB Havoc Rate		4.3%	117	6.6%
140										PD to INC		40.0%	30	34.4%
141
142	Special Teams
143
144	SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS		Category	Rate	Rk
145			FG value (per kick)	0.46	25
146			Punt efficiency	46.4%	117
147			Kickoff efficiency	61.5%	118
148			Punt return efficiency	57.1%	41
149			Kick return efficiency	80.0%	3
150
151	PLACE-KICKING		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	%	FG	%	Net Pts/FG	No
152			Nick Gasser	6'0, 180	SR	10-10	100.0%	9-11	81.8%	0.46	1
153											2	SR = success rate
154
155	PUNTING		Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg.	TB	FC	I20	Opp. Ret-Avg	Punt SR	Net Yds/Punt	No
156			Nick Gasser	6'0, 180	SR	27	38.5	1	5	7	8 - 7.3	44.4%	35.6	1
157			James Fonseca	5'11, 165	SR	1	43.0	0	0	1		100.0%	43.0	2
158
159	KICKOFFS		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg.	TB	TB%	OOB	Opp. Ret-Avg	Kickoff SR	Net Yds/Kick	No
160			Jerry Fitschen	6'0, 210	SO	25	61.3	9	36.0%	1	12 - 23.5	60.0%	39.9	1
161			Van Edwards, Jr.	5'9, 200	SR	1	65.0	1	100.0%	0		100.0%	40.0	2
162
163	PUNT RETURNS		Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	PR SR	No
164			Andre Williams	5'10, 185	SO	3	-4.0	0	6	33.3%	1
165			Jeremiah Knight	5'11, 195	FR	2	7.0	0	2	100.0%	2
166			Shawn Featherstone	6'2, 190	SR	2	5.0	0	1	50.0%	3
167
168	KICK RETURNS		Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	KR SR	No
169			Nate Stewart	6'2, 215	SO	2	21.5	0	0	100.0%	1
170			Van Edwards, Jr.	5'9, 200	SR	2	13.5	0	2	50.0%	2
171			Maverick Wolfley	6'3, 260	FR	1	3.0	0	0	100.0%	3
172
179
180	Akron	Akron


1	2018 Alabama Crimson Tide advanced statistical profile
2	Record: 7-0 (4-0) \| Second-Order Wins: 7.0 (0.0) \| Avg. projected final record: 11-1
3	Conference (Division): SEC (West)
4								S&P+ Rk:		1
5	Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.							Off. S&P+ Rk:		2
6	For previous years' stat profiles, go here.							Def. S&P+ Rk:		17
7	Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.							Special Teams S&P+ Rk:		97
8								Résumé S&P+ Rk:		1
9								Strength of Schedule Rk:		56
10	2018 Schedule & Results
11
12	Completed Games
13	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W/L	Box Score	Postgame Win Expectancy	Adj. Scoring Margin	Percentile Performance* (Off., Def.)			S&P+ Rank by week
14	0												Preseason	3
15	1	9/1/18	vs. Louisville	98	51-14	W	link	100%	41.2	87% (83%, 89%)			After 1	1
16	2	9/8/18	Arkansas State	86	57-7	W	link	100%	58.5	92% (91%, 94%)			After 2	1
17	3	9/15/18	at Ole Miss	38	62-7	W	link	100%	36.5	95% (88%, 64%)			After 3	1
18	4	9/22/18	Texas A&M	18	45-23	W	link	100%	28.4	97% (93%, 59%)			After 4	1
19	5	9/29/18	UL-Lafayette	96	56-14	W	link	100%	53.7	89% (78%, 93%)			After 5	1
20	6	10/6/18	at Arkansas	72	65-31	W	link	100%	27.7	87% (94%, 28%)			After 6	1
21	7	10/13/18	Missouri	37	39-10	W	link	100%	41.0	94% (78%, 92%)			After 7	1
22
23	Upcoming Games
24	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Proj. W/L	Proj. Margin	Win Prob.	Cumulative Proj. Wins	5	Win Total Odds (regular season only)		Conference Win Total Odds		4
25	8	10/20/18	at Tennessee	67	W	24.3	92%	7.9	4	7	0%	4	0%	3
26	9								3	8	0%	5	1%	2
27	10	11/3/18	at LSU	14	W	11.2	74%	8.7	2	9	1%	6	11%	1
28	11	11/10/18	Mississippi State	15	W	16.2	83%	9.5	1	10	11%	7	39%	0
29	12	11/17/18	The Citadel	N/A	W	53.2	100%	10.5	0	11	39%	8	48%	-1
30	13	11/24/18	Auburn	23	W	18.3	86%	11.3	-1	12	48%			-2
31	14								-2					-3
32									-3					#REF!
33	15
34	11									Odds of bowl eligibility		100%
35	* Note: because opponent adjustments are still pretty tenuous, some single-game percentiles might look a little strange.									Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses		87%
36										Odds of finishing with 0-2 wins		0%
37
38
39	Five Factors
40				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
41	EFFICIENCY		Success Rate*	60.6%	1	31.2%	3		When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
42	EFFICIENCY		Marginal Efficiency*	13.4%	1	-11.3%	5
43	EXPLOSIVENESS		IsoPPP*	1.53	3	1.21	81
44			Marginal Explosiveness*	0.40	1	0.01	58
45	FIELD POSITION		Avg. FP	32.8	15	26.6	19
46	FINISHING DRIVES		Pts. Per Scoring Opp.	5.23	24	4.08	38
47	TURNOVERS		Expected TO Margin	+6.3	4	TO Luck (PPG):	3.4
48	TURNOVERS		Actual TO Margin	+11	2	TO Luck (PPG):	3.4
49
50	The Basics
51				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
52	RUSHING	Rushing marginal efficiency*		8.1%	1	-11.5%	29		PASSING	Passing marginal efficiency*		19.0%	1	-11.2%	3
53		Rushing marginal explosiveness*		-0.16	104	-0.07	76			Passing marginal explosiveness*		97.4%	1	5.8%	34
54		Opportunity rate*		57.7%	4	43.8%	45			Passing completion rate*		70.6%	3	50.4%	7
56		Stuff rate*		9.4%	2	22.5%	31			Sack rate*		2.9%	13	10.8%	8
57
58				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
59	STANDARD DOWNS	SD marginal efficiency*		12.0%	1	-12.9%	3		PASSING DOWNS	PD marginal efficiency*		17.8%	2	-8.9%	22
60		SD marginal explosiveness*		0.26	8	0.09	84			PD marginal explosiveness*		1.02	1	-0.18	17
61		SD line yards per carry*		3.49	2	2.08	20			PD line yards per carry*		2.85	54	2.87	88
62		SD sack rate*		3.2%	37	7.6%	24			PD sack rate*		2.2%	9	14.5%	8
63
64	Bill Walsh Stats
65				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
66	OPEN PLAY	Standard Downs success rate		64.5%	1	37.5%	8		THIRD DOWN	Third-and-long percentage		44.4%	31	53.9%	47
67		Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd		74.8%	22	72.2%	110			Third-and-short percentage		14.8%	22	8.8%	50
68		Big-play rate (20+ yards)		15.2%	1	6.9%	59			Third-and-long success rate		50.0%	2	21.8%	50
69		Avg. third-down distance		6.8	26	7.6	65			Third-and-medium success rate		54.6%	34	34.2%	8
70		Third down success rate		62.0%	2	28.4%	13			Third-and-short success rate		83.3%	39	66.7%	32
71
72				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
73	BACKED UP	Backed up success rate		28.6%	87	30.8%	56					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
74	BACKED UP	Backed up turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	18		RED ZONE	21- to 30-yard line success rate		54.6%	10	32.1%	29
75										11- to 20-yard line success rate		55.4%	11	31.0%	33
76				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk			Inside 10 success rate		45.8%	97	45.0%	44
77	BLITZ DOWNS	Blitz down success rate		52.2%	2	20.5%	17			Inside 10 turnover rate		1.7%	79	10.0%	5
78		Blitz down big-play rate		28.3%	1	5.1%	30			First-and-goal success rate		50.0%	70	62.5%	98
79		Blitz down sack rate		3.0%	14	17.7%	10			Goal line success rate		75.0%	41	40.0%	11
80
81	Individual Stats
82
83	INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS		Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp Rate	Yards/Comp	Sack Rate	Yards/Att.	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
84			Tua Tagovailoa	6'1, 218	SO	88	123	1760	21-0	71.5%	20.0	2.4%	13.8	20.0%	0.98	1
85			Jalen Hurts	6'2, 218	JR	37	50	568	5-1	74.0%	15.4	2.0%	11.1	21.6%	0.36	2
86			Mac Jones	6'2, 205	FR	2	7	124	1-0	28.6%	62.0	12.5%	14.6	-16.8%	4.25	3
87
88	INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	Yards/Carry	TD	Hlt Yds/Opp	Opp Rate	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	Fum (lost)	No
89			Najee Harris	RB	6'2, 230	SO	69	439	6.4	4	4.86	65.2%	11.7%	-0.02	0 (0)	1
90			Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 215	SR	65	423	6.5	4	6.47	52.3%	7.7%	-0.02	0 (0)	2
91			Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	6'1, 221	SO	44	181	4.1	1	2.51	50.0%	-1.0%	-0.04	0 (0)	3
92			Josh Jacobs	RB	5'10, 216	JR	43	199	4.6	6	4.18	44.2%	9.2%	-0.03	0 (0)	4
93			Jalen Hurts	QB	6'2, 218	JR	25	114	4.6	0	4.75	44.0%	-0.7%	-0.07	2 (1)	5
94			Tua Tagovailoa	QB	6'1, 218	SO	22	144	6.5	2	5.17	54.6%	16.6%	-0.04	0 (0)	6
95
96	INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Yds/Catch	Yds/Target	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
97			Jerry Jeudy	WR	6'1, 192	SO	35	26	705	9	74.3%	27.1	20.1	28.5%	1.51	1
98			DeVonta Smith	WR	6'1, 173	SO	31	21	409	3	67.7%	19.5	13.2	18.1%	0.71	2
99			Henry Ruggs III	WR	6'0, 183	SO	26	20	361	5	76.9%	18.1	13.9	27.1%	0.76	3
100			Irv Smith Jr.	TE	6'4, 241	JR	25	17	346	5	68.0%	20.4	13.8	8.4%	1.15	4
101			Jaylen Waddle	WR	5'10, 177	FR	22	17	340	2	77.3%	20.0	15.5	28.9%	0.75	5
102			Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 215	SR	14	12	149	0	85.7%	12.4	10.6	27.5%	0.19	6
103			Josh Jacobs	RB	5'10, 216	JR	7	5	66	0	71.4%	13.2	9.4	18.3%	0.10	7
104			Hale Hentges	TE	6'5, 254	SR	5	3	33	2	60.0%	11.0	6.6	-0.8%	0.83	8
105			Derek Kief	WR	6'4, 204	SR	5	3	30	1	60.0%	10.0	6.0	2.2%	-0.13	9
106			Tyrell Shavers	WR	6'6, 216	FR	2	0	0	NULL	0.0%		0.0	-39.6%	0.00	10
107			Najee Harris	RB	6'2, 230	SO	2	1	0	0	50.0%	0.0	0.0	-37.4%	0.00	11
108
109	INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS (defense-only -- no special teams tackles)		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	TFLs	Sacks	Run Stuffs	INT (PBU)	FF	Yards/Play	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
110			Deionte Thompson	DB	6'2, 196	JR	31.0	1.5	0.0	1.5	2 (5)	0	9.3	32.6%	-0.27	1
111			Dylan Moses	LB	6'3, 233	SO	28.0	5.5	2.5	5.0	0 (1)	1	7.3	-2.1%	0.40	2
112			Mack Wilson	LB	6'2, 239	JR	24.0	2.5	1.0	2.0	1 (3)	0	4.9	18.5%	-0.33	3
113			Xavier McKinney	DB	6'1, 198	SO	23.5	3.0	2.0	2.0	2 (2)	1	6.9	21.2%	-0.19	4
114			Quinnen Williams	DL	6'4, 295	SO	22.5	7.5	1.5	10.0	0 (1)	0	0.0	-36.3%	-0.26	5
115			Raekwon Davis	DL	6'7, 316	JR	21.5	3.0	0.5	6.0	0 (0)	0	1.3	-21.7%	-0.42	6
116			Trevon Diggs	DB	6'2, 199	JR	18.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1 (6)	1	10.6	21.9%	0.10	7
117			Isaiah Buggs	DL	6'5, 286	SR	16.5	8.0	7.5	9.0	0 (2)	2	-1.1	-30.8%	-0.62	8
118			Christian Miller	LB	6'4, 244	SR	15.0	7.0	4.5	7.0	0 (1)	0	1.6	-22.5%	-0.04	9
119			Shyheim Carter	DB	6'0, 195	JR	15.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	2 (2)	0	11.2	25.4%	-0.11	10
120			Saivion Smith	DB	6'1, 200	JR	14.0	0.5	0.0	1.0	3 (1)	0	11.1	24.9%	-0.17	11
121			Patrick Surtain II	DB	6'2, 202	FR	13.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1 (4)	1	12.7	33.4%	0.24	12
122			Joshua McMillon	LB	6'3, 238	JR	10.5	1.0	0.0	2.0	0 (0)	0	7.2	1.5%	0.30	13
123			Anfernee Jennings	LB	6'3, 266	JR	9.5	3.5	2.5	4.5	0 (4)	0	0.2	-31.4%	-0.18	14
124			LaBryan Ray	DL	6'5, 294	SO	9.5	1.0	0.0	1.5	0 (2)	0	1.7	-18.2%	-0.38	15
125			Eyabi Anoma	LB	6'5, 245	FR	6.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0 (0)	0	1.9	-23.3%	-0.82	16
126			Daniel Wright	DB	6'1, 185	SO	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0 (2)	0	8.6	15.2%	-0.11	17
127			Markail Benton	LB	6'2, 231	FR	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	5.5	24.2%	-0.45	18
128			Josh Jobe	DB	6'1, 191	FR	5.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 (0)	0	9.8	-6.5%	0.79	19
129			Jamey Mosley	LB	6'5, 239	SR	5.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	0 (1)	0	0.6	-12.7%	-0.21	20
130
131	Footprint Stats
132
133	OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category	Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg		DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT		Category		Team	Rk	Nat'l Avg
134			Standard Downs run rate*	57.4%	72	59.2%				Standard Downs run rate*		44.4%	129	58.9%
135			Passing Downs run rate*	31.8%	77	34.3%				Passing Downs run rate*		27.4%	117	34.3%
136			Adj. Pace**	0.79	76	0.00				Overall Havoc Rate		22.9%	3	16.4%
137			% of Solo Tackles	67.2%	105	72.9%				DL Havoc Rate		5.9%	47	5.1%
138			Havoc Rate Allowed	11.1%	11	15.6%				LB Havoc Rate		7.8%	8	4.6%
139			** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate.							DB Havoc Rate		9.2%	9	6.6%
140										PD to INC		41.7%	17	34.4%
141
142	Special Teams
143
144	SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS		Category	Rate	Rk
145			FG value (per kick)	-0.36	110
146			Punt efficiency	50.0%	98
147			Kickoff efficiency	90.8%	29
148			Punt return efficiency	58.3%	39
149			Kick return efficiency	78.6%	5
150
151	PLACE-KICKING		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	%	FG	%	Net Pts/FG	No
152			Joseph Bulovas	6'0, 206	FR	39-40	97.5%	8-12	66.7%	-0.24	1
153			Austin Jones	5'10, 215	SR	7-10	70.0%	1-2	50.0%	-0.80	2	SR = success rate
154
155	PUNTING		Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg.	TB	FC	I20	Opp. Ret-Avg	Punt SR	Net Yds/Punt	No
156			Skyler DeLong	6'4, 189	FR	16	34.4	0	6	5		50.0%	34.4	1
157														2
158
159	KICKOFFS		Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg.	TB	TB%	OOB	Opp. Ret-Avg	Kickoff SR	Net Yds/Kick	No
160			Joseph Bulovas	6'0, 206	FR	65	62.6	31	47.7%	1	18 - 21.1	90.8%	44.9	1
161														2
162
163	PUNT RETURNS		Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	PR SR	No
164			Jaylen Waddle	5'10, 177	FR	11	18.2	1	14	54.5%	1
165			Derek Kief	6'4, 204	SR	1	17.0	0	0	100.0%	2
166			Trevon Diggs	6'2, 199	JR	0	NULL	0	1		3
167
168	KICK RETURNS		Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	FC	KR SR	No
169			Josh Jacobs	5'10, 216	JR	8	36.0	1	0	62.5%	1
170			Brian Robinson Jr.	6'1, 221	SO	3	16.3	0	0	100.0%	2
171			Deionte Thompson	6'2, 196	JR	1	20.0	0	0	100.0%	3
172
179
180	Alabama	Alabama


1	2018 Appalachian State Mountaineers advanced statistical profile
2	Record: 4-1 (2-0) \| Second-Order Wins: 4.4 (0.4) \| Avg. projected final record: 9-2
3	Conference (Division): Sun Belt (East)
4								S&P+ Rk:		11
5	Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.							Off. S&P+ Rk:		21
6	For previous years' stat profiles, go here.							Def. S&P+ Rk:		28
7	Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.							Special Teams S&P+ Rk:		61
8								Résumé S&P+ Rk:		8
9								Strength of Schedule Rk:		91
10	2018 Schedule & Results
11
12	Completed Games
13	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W/L	Box Score	Postgame Win Expectancy	Adj. Scoring Margin	Percentile Performance* (Off., Def.)			S&P+ Rank by week
14	0												Preseason	59
15	1	9/1/18	at Penn State	7	38-45	L	link	39%	-2.7	81% (86%, 26%)			After 1	54
16	2	9/8/18	at Charlotte	121	45-9	W	link	100%	43.5	83% (75%, 94%)			After 2	36
17	3												After 3	26
18	4	9/22/18	Gardner-Webb	N/A	72-7	W	link	100%	50.0	78% (84%, 86%)			After 4	20
19	5	9/29/18	South Alabama	113	52-7	W	link	100%	37.6	83% (84%, 83%)			After 5	16
20	6												After 6	12
21	7	10/9/18	at Arkansas State	86	35-9	W	link	98%	21.6	78% (30%, 91%)			After 7	11
22
23	Upcoming Games
24	Week	Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Proj. W/L	Proj. Margin	Win Prob.	Cumulative Proj. Wins	6	Win Total Odds (regular season only)		Conference Win Total Odds		6
25	8	10/20/18	UL-Lafayette	96	W	23.6	91%	4.9	5	4	0%	2	0%	5
26	9	10/25/18	at Georgia Southern	74	W	14.2	80%	5.7	4	5	0%	3	0%	4
27	10	11/3/18	at Coastal Carolina	104	W	22.6	90%	6.6	3	6	0%	4	0%	3
28	11	11/10/18	at Texas State	115	W	25.0	93%	7.5	2	7	2%	5	2%	2
29	12	11/17/18	Georgia State	120	W	32.0	97%	8.5	1	8	11%	6	11%	1
30	13	11/24/18	Troy	62	W	16.9	84%	9.3	0	9	38%	7	38%	0
31	14								-1	10	49%	8	49%	-1
32									-2					#REF!
33	15
34	9									Odds of bowl eligibility		100%
35	* Note: because opponent adjustments are still pretty tenuous, some single-game percentiles might look a little strange.									Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses		49%
36										Odds of finishing with 0-2 wins		0%
37
38
39	Five Factors
40				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
41	EFFICIENCY		Success Rate*	47.4%	24	36.0%	21		When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
42	EFFICIENCY		Marginal Efficiency*	-0.2%	26	-9.5%	12
43	EXPLOSIVENESS		IsoPPP*	1.37	11	1.02	18
44			Marginal Explosiveness*	0.30	7	-0.12	12
45	FIELD POSITION		Avg. FP	32.5	18	26.2	14
46	FINISHING DRIVES		Pts. Per Scoring Opp.	5.33	20	3.67	18
47	TURNOVERS		Expected TO Margin	+1.8	44	TO Luck (PPG):	1.2
48	TURNOVERS		Actual TO Margin	+3	33	TO Luck (PPG):	1.2
49
50	The Basics
51				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
52	RUSHING	Rushing marginal efficiency*		-7.7%	87	-16.5%	4		PASSING	Passing marginal efficiency*		9.4%	9	-3.1%	49
53		Rushing marginal explosiveness*		0.31	2	-0.21	23			Passing marginal explosiveness*		27.5%	41	-4.0%	12
54		Opportunity rate*		48.9%	44	42.1%	28			Passing completion rate*		64.8%	31	55.9%	37
56		Stuff rate*		22.1%	103	19.1%	70			Sack rate*		3.9%	30	4.4%	106
57
58				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
59	STANDARD DOWNS	SD marginal efficiency*		0.2%	21	-13.4%	2		PASSING DOWNS	PD marginal efficiency*		-1.1%	43	-1.2%	102
60		SD marginal explosiveness*		0.27	7	-0.07	32			PD marginal explosiveness*		0.38	19	-0.22	11
61		SD line yards per carry*		2.61	49	2.27	44			PD line yards per carry*		3.00	37	2.53	56
62		SD sack rate*		3.3%	39	4.9%	62			PD sack rate*		4.8%	33	3.5%	118
63
64	Bill Walsh Stats
65				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
66	OPEN PLAY	Standard Downs success rate		50.0%	39	38.1%	9		THIRD DOWN	Third-and-long percentage		41.4%	15	40.2%	122
67		Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd		73.2%	32	62.5%	23			Third-and-short percentage		10.3%	68	7.3%	28
68		Big-play rate (20+ yards)		8.5%	43	3.1%	2			Third-and-long success rate		25.0%	66	12.1%	3
69		Avg. third-down distance		7.5	69	7.1	95			Third-and-medium success rate		46.4%	77	39.5%	28
70		Third down success rate		47.8%	20	30.9%	19			Third-and-short success rate		100.0%	1	66.7%	32
71
72				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
73	BACKED UP	Backed up success rate		50.0%	31	20.0%	19					Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
74	BACKED UP	Backed up turnover rate		0.0%	1	10.0%	3		RED ZONE	21- to 30-yard line success rate		62.5%	4	45.0%	86
75										11- to 20-yard line success rate		54.2%	14	23.5%	13
76				Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk			Inside 10 success rate		56.7%	41	46.7%	54
77	BLITZ DOWNS	Blitz down success rate		29.0%	72	16.7%	6			Inside 10 turnover rate		0.0%	1	0.0%	47
78		Blitz down big-play rate		7.9%	75	2.1%	5			First-and-goal success rate		62.5%	33	50.0%	58
79		Blitz down sack rate		10.7%	80	6.3%	98			Goal line success rate		85.7%	20	66.7%	60
80
81	Individual Stats
82
83	INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS		Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD-INT	Comp Rate	Yards/Comp	Sack Rate	Yards/Att.	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
84			Zac Thomas	6'1, 200	SO	70	112	1040	10-3	62.5%	14.9	5.1%	8.5	9.8%	0.38	1
85			Peyton Derrick	6'2, 182	FR	10	10	113	2-0	100.0%	11.3	0.0%	11.3	44.5%	0.33	2
86			Zeb Speir	6'2, 203	SR	1	3	9	0-0	33.3%	9.0	0.0%	3.0	-2.0%	-0.54	3
87
88	INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	Yards/Carry	TD	Hlt Yds/Opp	Opp Rate	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	Fum (lost)	No
89			Jalin Moore	RB	5'11, 207	SR	63	400	6.3	6	7.56	49.2%	-1.8%	-0.03	0 (0)	1
90			Darrynton Evans	RB	5'11, 191	SO	35	242	6.9	2	9.94	45.7%	-2.5%	-0.03	0 (0)	2
91			Zac Thomas	QB	6'1, 200	SO	33	275	8.3	6	9.39	54.6%	3.8%	-0.03	1 (1)	3
92			Marcus Williams Jr.	RB	5'10, 200	SO	28	157	5.6	0	4.23	53.6%	6.6%	-0.06	0 (0)	4
93			D'Andre Hicks	RB	5'10, 178	FR	21	178	8.5	1	9.92	57.1%	12.0%	-0.03	0 (0)	5
94			Camerun Peoples	RB	6'2, 202	FR	9	53	5.9	0	2.83	66.7%	7.4%	-0.26	0 (0)	6
95
96	INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate	Yds/Catch	Yds/Target	Marg. Eff.	Marg. Expl.	No
97			Corey Sutton	WR	6'3, 205	SO	24	16	352	4	66.7%	22.0	14.7	12.8%	1.29	1
98			Thomas Hennigan	WR	6'1, 206	SO	18	13	157	0	72.2%	12.1	8.7	23.4%	0.05	2
99			Malik Williams	WR	5'10, 183	SO	16	13	174	2	81.3%	13.4	10.9	24.6%	0.12	3
100			Dominique Heath	WR	5'9, 166	SR	11	8	162	3	72.7%	20.3	14.7	26.0%	1.14	4
101			Jalen Virgil	WR	6'1, 206	SO	10	6	84	0	60.0%	14.0	8.4	6.8%	0.28	5
102			Jalin Moore	RB	5'11, 207	SR	9	6	40	0	66.7%	6.7	4.4	-3.4%	-0.42	6
103			Henry Pearson	TE	6'3, 243	FR	6	5	75	0	83.3%	15.0	12.5	46.6%	-0.22	7
104			Collin Reed	TE	6'4, 248	JR	6	4	29	2	66.7%	7.3	4.8	8.8%	-0.40	8
105			Darrynton Evans	RB	5'11, 191	SO	5	4	14	0	80.0%	3.5	2.8	-18.0%	-0.57	9
106			Brad Absher	WR	5'10, 178	SR	4	3	13	0	75.0%	4.3	3.3	11.3%	-0.79	10
107			A'Darius Purifoy	WR	6'0, 188	SO	3	2	25	0	66.7%	12.5	8.3	2.5%	0.33	11
108
109	INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS (defense-only -- no special teams tackles)		Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Tack