GW's analysis of the counterfactual value of other actors' spending (public)

	A	C	E	F	G	H
1				Value	Source	Notes
2	Moral weights
3
4		Moral weights assigned to different benefits
5			Value assigned to averting the death of an individual under 5 from malaria	116	GW's analysis of moral weights for malaria
6			Value assigned to averting the death of an individual 5 or older from malaria	73	GW's analysis of moral weights for malaria
7			Value assigned to increasing ln(consumption) by one unit for one person for one year	1.44	GW's analysis of moral weights for malaria
8
9	Counterfactual value of other actors' spending
10
11		Counterfactual value of government health spending
12			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government health spending spent on programs targeting people under age 5	45%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet	These are rough, back-of-the-envelope calculations. As a simplifying modeling assumption, we assume that all health spending is on programs aimed at preventing mortality, rather than morbidity.
13			Estimated cost per life saved for marginal government spending on health programs targeting people under age 5	$12,254	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
14			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government health spending spent on programs targeting people over age 5	55%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
15			Estimated cost per life saved for marginal government spending on health programs targeting people over age 5	$30,000	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
16			Units of value generated per government health dollar spent on programs targeting people under age 5	0.0095	Calculation
17			Units of value generated per government health dollar spent on programs targeting people over age 5	0.0024	Calculation
18			Overall units of value generated per government health dollar spent	0.0056	Calculation
19
20		Counterfactual value of government education spending
21			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government education spending spent on primary education	59%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet	Estimates based on World Bank data for Uganda
22			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government education spending spent on secondary education	25%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
23			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government education spending spent on tertiary education	16%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
24			Value generated by government spending on primary education in terms of increasing future consumption, relative to GiveDirectly	100%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
25			Value generated by government spending on secondary education in terms of increasing future consumption, relative to GiveDirectly	70%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
26			Value generated by government spending on tertiary education in terms of increasing future consumption, relative to GiveDirectly	50%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
27			Units of value generated per dollar donated to GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer program	0.0034	GiveWell's CEA for GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfers
28			Units of value generated per government education dollar spent	0.0028	Calculation
29
30		Counterfactual value of government social security spending
31			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government social security spending in the form of in-kind contributions to social security programs	53%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet	Estimates based on World Bank data for Uganda
32			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government social security spending spent on social pension	19%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
33			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government social security spending spent on conditional cash transfers	18%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
34			Estimated proportion of counterfactual government social security spending spent on unconditional cash transfers	9%	GiveWell counterfactual value of government funds calculation spreadsheet
35			Value generated by in-kind government contributions to social security programs, relative to GiveDirectly	70%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
36			Value generated by government spending on social pension, relative to GiveDirectly	70%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
37			Value generated by government spending on conditional cash transfers, relative to GiveDirectly	100%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
38			Value generated by government spending on unconditional cash transfers, relative to GiveDirectly	100%	Guesstimate based on accumulated GiveWell knowledge. We recognize this parameter is highly uncertain.
39			Units of value generated per dollar donated to GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer program	0.0034	GiveWell's CEA for GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfers
40			Units of value generated per government social security dollar spent	0.0026	Calculation
41
42		Value of grantee spending (to use as reference points)
43			Units of value generated by AMF's spending on ITN distributions in DRC (before final adjustments)	0.0404	GW's CEA for long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) distributions
44			Units of value generated by Helen Keller International's spending on VAS in Kenya (before final adjustments)	0.0190	GW's CEA for vitamin A supplementation (VAS)
45
46		Counterfactual value of spending by other actors
47			Counterfactual units of value generated by government spending on deworming	0.0035	Calculation	Weighted average of 25% health, 70% education, 5% social security
48			Counterfactual units of value generated by government spending on malaria, VAS, and immunization programs	0.0051	Calculation	Weighted average of 80% health, 10% education, 10% social security
49			Counterfactual units of value generated by donated deworming drug costs	0.0040	Calculation	10% as good as AMF in DRC (before supplemental adjustments)
50			Counterfactual units of value generated by philanthropic actors' spending on VAS and vitamin A capsule procurement (in countries where VAS is supported by a grant from Global Affairs Canada)	0.0123	Calculation	50/50 weighted average of (a) our estimate of the value of delivering VAS in Kenya (before supplemental adjustments), and (b) our estimate of the value of domestic government health spending.
51			Counterfactual units of value generated by philanthropic actors's spending on VAS and vitamin A capsule procurement (in other countries)	0.0056	Calculation	Assumed to be same as 100% government health spending
52			Counterfactual units of value generated by Gavi spending	0.0070	US allocations to Gavi and Maternal and Child Health	Assumed to be the counterfactual value of other opportunities that Gavi donors (primarily high-income countries and private philanthropy) would fund
53