expected.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E
1	probability chain		# of attempts until proc	P(attempt)	P(attempt)*attempt
2	start	0.1	1	0.1	0.1
3	0.9	0.18	2	0.162	0.324
4	0.82	0.26	3	0.19188	0.57564
5	0.74	0.34	4	0.1856808	0.7427232
6	0.66	0.42	5	0.151384464	0.75692232
7	0.58	0.5	6	0.104527368	0.627164208
8	0.5	0.58	7	0.06062587344	0.4243811141
9	0.42	0.66	8	0.02897498641	0.2317998913
10	0.34	0.74	9	0.01104561603	0.09941054428
11	0.26	0.82	10	0.003182331538	0.03182331538
12	0.18	0.9	11	0.0006287045233	0.006915749756
13	0.1	0.98	12	0.00006845893698	0.0008215072438
14	0.02	1	13	0.000001397121163	0.00001816257512
15
16					sum = P(expected)
17					3.921620013
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