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Indycar Championship Scenarios for R17 - Milwaukee 1st Race 1:00pBasically...If Palou wins the 1st race (1 pm) he is de facto champion. To keep par pace, Kirkwood needs to gain 30 pts over Palou (K1st-P10th, K2-P20, K3-P25).
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For the best view of the entire spreadsheet, view on desktop at 50% to 75% zoom.Pre-Qual Palou Points Lead91The numbers in the boxes below show Palou's points lead if this current race ended in that scenario.Bonus Points for This RacePoints Gap as They Ran at Key Times
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 (Milw2, Milw1, Laguna) Races Left3Reminder: Palou will always win tiebreaks due to being guaranteed having more wins than Kirkwood. The scenarios below account for this. (Tied on Points = Palou Wins)Pole PositionPalou (+1)Color bordered boxes below show the range^ of "live" championship standings ("points as they run") gaps that occured at significant times over the course of the race:
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Milwaukee Race 2 (1pm) is paying points before Race 1 (6pm). Gray blocks show impossible pre-race points finish combinations (both drivers finish 2nd, both get the pole, etc.). Blank headers remove impossible bonus point combos after Q.Remaining Points Available162Situations where Kirkwood is still alive in the championship:Situations where Palou is/will be the 2026 champion:Led a LapPalou?
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Math Max Gap (54-0) After Current Race107Kirkwood is still alive, but in a worse situation for the next racePalou has mathematically clinched the championshipKirkwood?Race Start (Grid Position)Race Finish (Final Points)
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Realistic Max Gap (54-5) After Current Race97Best case, Kirkwood is in an equal/better situation for the next race (below "Par" Gap)Palou is de facto champion, only needs to start the remaining racesLed Most Laps"Live" points gaps for this race will be updated after the final results (lap charts) are posted by Indycar.
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Par Gap (Equal/Better) After Current Race60
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If the championship is still alive after this race, this spreadsheet will be updated with a new table/tab for Milwaukee Race 1 (6pm).If Kirkwood gets... >>>1st Place2nd Place3rd Place (4th+)Top 5 (6th-7th+)Top 10 (11th-14th+Bonus) .Top 20 (21st-24th+Bonus).Big Trouble!DNS
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...and Palou gets… vvv 54535251444342414039383736353433323130292827262524232221201918171615141312111098765430
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Pole Position (1) + Lead the Most Laps (2 +1) + (50) 1st1st Place541041051091101121131141151161171181191201211221231241251261271281291301311321331341351361371381391401st Place
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Lead the Most Laps (2 + 1) + (50) 1st53102103104107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139
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Pole Position (1) + Lead a Lap (1) + (50) 1st52100102103105107108110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138
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Lead a Lap (1) + (50) 1ST519899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137
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Pole Position (1) + Lead the Most Laps (2 +1) + (40) 2nd2nd Place4484969798991001011021031041051061071081091101111121131141151161171181191201211221231241251261271281291302nd Place
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Lead the Most Laps (2 + 1) + (40) 2nd4382839596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129
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Pole Position (1) + Lead a Lap (1) + (40) 2nd428082949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128
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Pole Position OR Lead a Lap (1) + (40) 2nd417879808193949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127
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No Bonus Points (40) 2ND40777879809293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126
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Pole Position (1) + Lead the Most Laps (2 +1) + (35) 3rd3rd Place397986878889909495969798991001011021031041051061071081091101111121131141151161171181191201211221231241253rd Place
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Lead the Most Laps (2 + 1) + (35) 3rd387778858687888993949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124
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Pole Position (1) + Lead a Lap (1) + (35) 3rd37757784858687889293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123
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Pole(1) + MostLaps(3) + (32) 4thPole or LeadLap(1) + (35) 3rd36737475768384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122
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MostLaps(3) + (32) 4thNo Bonus Points (35) 3RD3572737475828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121
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Pole(1) + MostLaps(3) + (30) 5thPole(1) + LeadLap(1) + (32) 4thTop 534727481828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120Top 5
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MostLaps(3) + (30) 5thPole or LeadLap(1) + (32) 4th33707172738081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119
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P(1)+M(3)+(28) 6th or P(1)+L(1)+(30) 5th or (32) 4TH3269707172798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118
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MostLaps(3) + (28) 6thPole or LeadLap(1) + (30) 5th316869707178798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117
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P(1)+M(3)+(26) 7th or P(1)+L(1)+(28) 6th or (30) 5TH30676869707778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116
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MostLaps(3) + (26) 7thPole or LeadLap(1) + (28) 6thTop 102966676869767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115Top 10
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P(1)+M(3)+(24) 8th or P(1)+L(1)+(26) 7th or (28) 6TH286566676875767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114
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MostLaps(3) + (24) 8thPole or LeadLap(1) + (26) 7th27646566677475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113
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P(1)+M(3)+(22) 9th or P(1)+L(1)+(24) 8th or (26) 7TH2663646566737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112
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MostLaps(3) + (22) 9thPole or LeadLap(1) + (24) 8th256263646572737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111
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P(1)+M(3)+(20) 10th or P(1)+L(1)+(22) 9th or (24) 8TH24616263647172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110
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P(1)+M(3)+(19) 11th or M(3)+(20) 10th or P/L(1)+(22) 9th2360616263707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109
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P(1)+M(3)+(18) 12th or M(3)+(19) 11th or P(1)+L(1)+(20) 10th or (22) 9TH225960616269707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108
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P(1)+M(3)+(17) 13th or M(3)+(18) 12th or P(1)+L(1)+(19) 11th or P/L(1)+(20) 10th 21585960616869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107
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P(1)+M(3)+(16) 14th | M(3)+(17) 13th | P(1)+L(1)+(18) 12th | P/L(1)+(19) 11th | (20) 10TH2057585960676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106
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15th+4 or 14th+3 or 13th+2 or 12th+1 or 11THTop 20195657585966676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105Top 20
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16th+4 or 15th+3 or 14th+2 or 13th+1 or 12TH18555657586566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104
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17th+4 or 16th+3 or 15th+2 or 14th+1 or 13TH1754555657646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103
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18th+4 or 17th+3 or 16th+2 or 15th+1 or 14TH165354555663646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102
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19th+4 or 18th+3 or 17th+2 or 16th+1 or 15TH15525354556263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101
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20th+4 or 19th+3 or 18th+2 or 17th+1 or 16TH1451525354616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100
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21st+4 or 20th+3 or 19th+2 or 18th+1 or 17TH135051525360616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899
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22nd+4 or 21st+3 or 20th+2 or 19th+1 or 18TH124950515259606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798
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23rd+4 or 22nd+3 or 21st+2 or 20th+1 or 19TH114849505158596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697
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24th+4 or 23rd+3 or 22nd+2 or 21st+1 or 20TH104748495057585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596
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25th-27th+4 or 24th+3 or 23rd+2 or 22nd+1 or 21STBig Trouble!94647484956575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495Big Trouble!
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25th-27th+3 or 24th+2 or 23rd+1 or 22ND84546474855565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394
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25th-27th+2 or 24th+1 or 23RD74445464754555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293
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25th-27th+1 or 24TH64344454653545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192
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25TH or WORSE54243444552535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091
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Pole Postiton (1) but Unable to Start Race (2.5 points, but we'll call it 3)DNS4DNS
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Practiced or Qualified, but Unable to Start Race (2.5 points, but we'll call it 3)3
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Does Not Participate in Race Weekend0
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1st Place2nd Place3rd PlaceTop 5Top 10Top 20Big Trouble!DNS
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