Pokemon XY Shiny Rates
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Shiny Charm?no(If you would like to play with the shiny charm values and formulas go to File -> Make a copy... I made a drop-down list for the charm for the correct values.)
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CHAINOLDJEFF'SDOUBLEOld Formula - (65535/(8200-chain*200))/65535
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11/81921/40961/4096This is the original formula used since the shiny counter was first introduced. It starts at 1/8192 chance and maxes out at 1/200 at chain 40. We don't know why 1/200 is the max but we treat it that way in Gen VI now due to no official information from Nintendo.1/72823641
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21/81921/40961/38551/72823641
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31/72821/38551/38551/72823641
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41/72821/38551/36411/72823641
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51/72821/36411/36411/65543277
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61/72821/36411/34491/65543277
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71/65541/34491/34491/65543277
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81/65541/34491/3277Jeff's Formula - (65535/(8200-200(chain/2+20))/655351/65543277
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91/65541/32771/3277This is the formula I came up with that keeps the same rate of change, starts at the confirmed new chance (1/4096), and ends on chain 40 at the old max. 1/59582979
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101/59581/32771/31211/5958
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111/59581/31211/29791/5958
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121/59581/29791/28491/5461
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131/54611/28491/28491/5461
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141/54611/28491/27311/5041
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151/50411/27311/26211/5041
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161/50411/26211/2521Double Formula - (65525/(8200-chain*200)*2)/655351/4681
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171/46811/25211/2427This is another possible formula. It's extremely similar to the "new" one except that chain 40 hits 1/100 chance. This could be the case, we just don't have enough data to back that up yet.1/4681
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181/46811/24271/23411/4369
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191/43691/23411/21851/4369
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201/40961/21851/21141/4096
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211/40961/21141/19861/3855
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221/38551/19861/19281/3641
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231/36411/19281/18201/3449
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241/34491/18201/1680Notes on Shiny Charm1/3277
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251/32771/16801/1598It has never been clear that the Shiny Charm effects the Pokeradar rates but given the numbers it seems highly unlikely even with the old formula. Take these numbers with a grain of salt. It's still safest to end a chain at 40 unless you're going for IVs.1/3121
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261/29791/15981/14891/2979
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271/28491/14891/13941/2731
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281/26211/13941/13111/2521
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291/24271/13111/11921/2341
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301/21851/11921/10921/2185
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311/19861/10921/9931/1986
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321/18201/9931/8981/1771
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331/15981/8981/7991/1598
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341/13941/7991/6971/1394
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351/11921/6971/6011/1192
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361/9931/6011/5001/993
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371/7991/5001/4001/799
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381/6011/4001/3011/596
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391/4001/3011/2001/400
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401/2001/2001/1001/200
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