ASRS Severity/Response/Mortality Relationship

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M
1	Expected famine mortality rates in global cooling scenarios
2
3		Probability of response (no intervention)			Cooling scenario (Soot, Tg)
4			Input cells in blue		5	16	27	37	47	150
5				Adaptation	90.0%	86.2%	83.6%	81.7%	80.0%	80.0%
6				Efficient trade	80.0%	60.9%	48.0%	38.4%	30.0%	20.0%
7				Resilient foods (conditional on adaptation and trade)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	20.0%
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9		Probability of response scenarios (assuming adaptation and trade are independent)
10		Response			Cooling scenario (Soot, Tg)
11		Adaptation	Trade efficiency	Resilient Foods	5	16	27	37	47	150
12		None	0%	No	2%	5%	9%	11%	14%	16%
13		Considerable	0%	No	18%	34%	44%	50%	56%	62%
14		None	100%	No	8%	8%	8%	7%	6%	4%
15		Considerable	100%	No	72%	52%	40%	31%	24%	13%
16		Considerable	100%	Yes	0	0	0	0	0	5.33%
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18		Effect of policy breakthrough (see tractability tab of CEA for justification)
19			Increase in probability, Adaptation (percentage points)		0.10
20			Increase in probability, Efficient trade (percentage points)		0.06
21			Increase in probability, Resilient foods (percentage points)		0.23
22
23		Probability of response, conditional on policy breakthrough			Soot, Tg
24					5	16	27	37	47	150
25				Adaptation	90.1%	86.3%	83.7%	81.8%	80.1%	80.1%
26				Efficient trade	80.1%	61.0%	48.0%	38.4%	30.1%	20.1%
27				Resilient foods (conditional on adaptation and trade)	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	20.2%
28
29		Probability of response scenarios, conditional on policy breakthrough (assuming adaptation and trade are independent)
30		Response			Cooling scenario (Soot, Tg)
31		Adaptation	Trade efficiency	Resilient Foods	5	16	27	37	47	150
32		None	0%	No	2%	5%	8%	11%	14%	16%
33		Considerable	0%	No	18%	34%	43%	50%	56%	62%
34		None	100%	No	8%	8%	8%	7%	6%	4%
35		Considerable	100%	No	72%	53%	40%	31%	24%	13%
36		Considerable	100%	Yes	0	0	0	0	0	5.42%
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38											Per cooling event
39				Expected mortality rate (no intervention)	0.6%	3.3%	10.4%	17.6%	23.3%	72.1%	1.44%
40				Deaths in a world of 8.1B (millions)	45	268	848	1426	1893	5853	117
41				Expected mortality rate (with policy breakthrough)	0.6%	3.3%	10.4%	17.5%	23.3%	72.0%	1.43%
42				Counterfactual reduction in mortality (percentage of global population)	0.00%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.06%	0.0046%
43
44											Total	Per cooling event	Per cooling event, mortality rate
45				Annual expected mortality (2024 population)	94486	55531	40831	26334	43983	16571	277736	116804489	1.4387%
46				Annual expected lives saved by policy breakthrough	450	279	104	55	77	14	979	411862	0.0051%
47				Proportion of deaths averted by policy breakthrough							0.3526%
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