ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZ
1
Total ReturnSPY Ret
2
If SPY - TLT > 0 in first 15 daysthen
SPY- TLT < 0 in the last five days
SPY - TLT > 0 in first five days of next month
Average Return Year
16.4%10.3%
3
Short SPY
Long SPY
Standard Deviation Yearly
11.4%14.9%
4
Long TLT
Short TLT
5
Sharpe Ratio
1.440.69
6
If SPY - TLT < 0 in first 15 daysLong SPY
Short SPY
Old Strategy Sharpe: 0.97
7
Short TLT
Long TLT
8
Optimized Strategy Sharpe: 1.44
9
10
We shouldn't worry to much about profits and worry more about Sharpe because with a good Sharpe you can add leverage increasing returns much more effectively while risking less. In trading risk management is essential
11
Last 5 Days
First 5 Days Next Month
Total ReturnSPY Ret
12
Row Labels
Sum of SPY - TLT First 15 Days
Sum of SPY Ret Last 5 Days
Sum of TLT Ret Last 5 Days
Sum of SPY Ret First 5 Days
Sum of TLT Return First 5 Days
FlagSPYTLTSPYTLT1.001.001.001.001.001.001.00
13
8/1/20021.02%-4.23%1.47%-3.41%1.41%0.68%10.00%1.47%1.001.011.001.001.47%0.68% 1.01 1.01 1.04
14
9/1/2002-12.65%-2.26%0.33%-1.23%0.72%-11.08%-1-2.26%0.00%-1.23%-0.72%0.981.010.990.99-4.20%-11.08% 0.97 0.90 1.04
15
10/1/200216.08%-1.85%2.56%-3.31%-0.44%7.91%10.00%2.56%0.00%0.00%0.981.040.990.992.56%7.91% 1.00 0.97 1.10
16
11/1/20026.36%-0.12%-0.66%2.50%1.60%5.99%10.00%-0.66%2.50%-1.60%0.981.031.010.980.24%5.99% 1.00 1.02 1.05
17
12/1/2002-6.42%-1.98%1.85%-2.10%1.18%-5.82%-1-1.98%0.00%-2.10%-1.18%0.961.030.990.97-5.25%-5.82% 0.95 0.96 0.96
18
1/1/20031.82%-3.03%0.70%3.52%-1.80%-2.49%10.00%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.961.040.990.970.70%-2.49% 0.95 0.94 0.96
19
2/1/2003-3.76%1.30%1.95%-3.12%0.76%-1.36%-11.30%0.00%-3.12%-0.76%0.971.040.960.96-2.57%-1.36% 0.93 0.93 0.97
20
3/1/200310.50%-5.65%3.26%-1.88%0.48%0.21%10.00%3.26%0.00%0.00%0.971.070.960.963.26%0.21% 0.96 0.93 1.11
21
4/1/20038.38%0.62%1.92%3.83%-1.91%8.12%10.00%1.92%3.83%1.91%0.971.101.000.987.66%8.12% 1.03 1.00 1.13
22
5/1/2003-5.51%4.54%-0.18%1.60%1.44%5.34%-14.54%0.00%1.60%-1.44%1.011.101.010.964.69%5.34% 1.08 1.06 1.16
23
6/1/20033.38%-1.84%-1.34%2.35%-0.07%1.06%10.00%-1.34%0.00%0.00%1.011.081.010.96-1.34%1.06% 1.07 1.07 1.23
24
7/1/20038.17%0.22%-3.91%3.54%-2.25%1.79%10.00%-3.91%3.54%2.25%1.011.041.050.981.88%1.79% 1.09 1.09 1.14
25
8/1/20030.86%0.66%0.78%-1.41%1.71%2.04%10.00%0.78%-1.41%-1.71%1.011.051.030.97-2.34%2.04% 1.06 1.11 1.17
26
9/1/2003-0.52%-2.57%3.78%2.18%-0.09%-1.10%-1-2.57%0.00%2.18%0.09%0.991.051.060.97-0.29%-1.10% 1.06 1.10 1.00
27
10/1/20039.13%0.42%1.25%4.22%-3.69%5.21%10.00%1.25%0.00%0.00%0.991.061.060.971.25%5.21% 1.07 1.16 1.03
28
11/1/2003-2.98%2.13%-1.60%0.29%-1.59%1.09%-12.13%0.00%0.29%1.59%1.011.061.060.984.01%1.09% 1.11 1.17 1.08
29
12/1/20030.00%2.16%-1.41%0.38%1.28%4.91%10.00%-1.41%0.00%0.00%1.011.041.060.98-1.41%4.91% 1.10 1.23 1.06
30
1/1/20040.56%-0.83%-0.39%1.87%0.01%1.96%10.00%-0.39%1.87%-0.01%1.011.041.080.981.47%1.96% 1.11 1.25 1.06
31
2/1/2004-0.40%0.37%0.88%0.85%0.80%1.35%-10.37%0.00%0.85%-0.80%1.011.041.090.980.42%1.35% 1.12 1.27 1.06
32
3/1/2004-5.53%1.82%-0.98%1.18%1.50%-1.33%-11.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.031.041.090.981.82%-1.33% 1.14 1.25 1.04
33
4/1/20046.40%-2.92%-1.05%1.34%-3.31%-1.91%10.00%-1.05%0.00%0.00%1.031.031.090.98-1.05%-1.91% 1.13 1.23 1.08
34
5/1/20040.87%2.74%1.65%-0.91%-2.42%1.70%10.00%1.65%-0.91%2.42%1.031.051.081.003.17%1.70% 1.16 1.25 1.10
35
6/1/20041.64%0.67%1.52%1.62%-1.53%1.83%10.00%1.52%1.62%1.53%1.031.061.101.014.67%1.83% 1.22 1.27 1.07
36
7/1/2004-5.76%0.87%-0.09%-2.74%1.16%-3.27%-10.87%0.00%-2.74%-1.16%1.041.061.071.00-3.03%-3.27% 1.18 1.23 1.14
37
8/1/2004-3.00%0.57%1.41%-3.67%2.53%0.24%-10.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.051.061.071.000.57%0.24% 1.19 1.23 1.12
38
9/1/2004-1.74%0.19%-1.61%1.31%-0.14%1.00%-10.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.051.061.071.000.19%1.00% 1.19 1.24 1.10
39
10/1/2004-2.41%1.75%-0.19%1.50%-1.25%1.28%-11.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.071.061.071.001.75%1.28% 1.21 1.26 1.07
40
11/1/20044.87%0.40%-1.51%3.54%-1.43%4.36%10.00%-1.51%0.00%0.00%1.071.051.071.00-1.51%4.36% 1.19 1.31 1.04
41
12/1/2004-0.38%0.40%-0.33%0.18%1.45%2.97%-10.40%0.00%0.18%-1.45%1.071.051.070.99-0.87%2.97% 1.18 1.35 1.07
42
1/1/2005-6.81%1.37%0.34%-2.03%-0.01%-2.27%-11.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.091.051.070.991.37%-2.27% 1.20 1.32 1.08
43
2/1/20051.37%1.70%-0.49%1.60%2.14%2.07%10.00%-0.49%0.00%0.00%1.091.041.070.99-0.49%2.07% 1.19 1.35 1.06
44
3/1/2005-0.25%-0.12%1.02%1.77%1.25%-1.85%-1-0.12%0.00%1.77%-1.25%1.081.041.090.980.40%-1.85% 1.20 1.33 1.04
45
4/1/2005-3.57%-0.22%1.89%1.08%-0.41%-1.89%-1-0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.081.041.090.98-0.22%-1.89% 1.19 1.30 0.99
46
5/1/20051.44%0.30%1.66%1.15%-1.15%3.17%10.00%1.66%0.00%0.00%1.081.061.090.981.66%3.17% 1.21 1.34 0.99
47
6/1/20051.83%-1.90%1.92%0.54%1.95%0.15%10.00%1.92%0.54%-1.95%1.081.081.090.960.52%0.15% 1.22 1.34 1.06
48
7/1/20056.56%0.16%-0.47%1.78%-1.82%3.75%10.00%-0.47%1.78%1.82%1.081.071.110.973.13%3.75% 1.26 1.39 1.06
49
8/1/2005-2.12%0.09%2.33%-0.70%-1.20%-0.94%-10.09%0.00%-0.70%1.20%1.081.071.100.990.59%-0.94% 1.27 1.38 1.01
50
9/1/20051.89%1.39%-1.20%0.75%-2.07%0.80%10.00%-1.20%0.00%0.00%1.081.061.100.99-1.20%0.80% 1.25 1.39 0.95
51
10/1/2005-3.63%1.68%-1.82%-2.83%0.00%-2.39%-11.68%0.00%-2.83%-0.00%1.101.061.070.99-1.15%-2.39% 1.24 1.36 0.96
52
11/1/20053.44%-0.28%-0.45%1.73%-1.08%4.30%10.00%-0.45%0.00%0.00%1.101.061.070.99-0.45%4.30% 1.23 1.42 0.96
53
12/1/20050.01%-1.21%1.93%0.53%0.07%-0.19%10.00%1.93%0.53%-0.07%1.101.081.080.992.39%-0.19% 1.26 1.41 1.03
54
1/1/20061.63%0.75%-1.35%3.36%-0.13%2.37%10.00%-1.35%3.36%0.13%1.101.061.120.992.15%2.37% 1.29 1.45 0.99
55
2/1/20060.20%-0.81%-0.08%-1.60%0.28%0.57%10.00%-0.08%-1.60%-0.28%1.101.061.100.98-1.95%0.57% 1.26 1.46 1.02
56
3/1/20064.24%0.19%-1.89%-0.20%-2.69%1.64%10.00%-1.89%-0.20%2.69%1.101.041.101.010.60%1.64% 1.27 1.48 1.01
57
4/1/20062.46%0.43%-1.16%-0.22%-1.68%1.26%10.00%-1.16%-0.22%1.68%1.101.031.091.030.30%1.26% 1.27 1.50 1.01
58
5/1/2006-4.09%0.32%-0.90%0.80%-0.27%-3.06%-10.32%0.00%0.80%0.27%1.101.031.101.031.39%-3.06% 1.29 1.45 1.05
59
6/1/2006-2.41%1.80%0.30%-1.30%2.09%0.26%-11.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.121.031.101.031.80%0.26% 1.31 1.46 1.08
60
7/1/2006-2.36%1.29%0.62%-0.34%0.45%0.45%-11.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.141.031.101.031.29%0.45% 1.33 1.46 1.10
61
8/1/2006-0.10%0.39%1.14%0.04%1.05%2.16%-10.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.141.031.101.030.39%2.16% 1.34 1.49 1.09
62
9/1/2006-1.13%1.59%-0.30%-0.28%-0.46%2.66%-11.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.161.031.101.031.59%2.66% 1.36 1.53 1.08
63
10/1/20064.12%0.69%2.55%1.06%-0.89%3.10%10.00%2.55%0.00%0.00%1.161.061.101.032.55%3.10% 1.39 1.58 1.11
64
11/1/20061.11%-0.08%1.34%0.59%-0.30%1.97%10.00%1.34%0.59%0.30%1.161.071.111.032.23%1.97% 1.42 1.61 1.14
65
12/1/20062.55%-0.00%-1.51%0.45%-0.32%1.33%10.00%-1.51%0.45%0.32%1.161.051.111.04-0.75%1.33% 1.41 1.63 1.10
66
1/1/20072.56%-0.14%-0.07%-0.39%1.06%1.49%10.00%-0.07%-0.39%-1.06%1.161.051.111.03-1.52%1.49% 1.39 1.66 1.11
67
2/1/20070.31%-3.45%2.18%1.01%0.99%-1.98%10.00%2.18%1.01%-0.99%1.161.081.121.022.20%-1.98% 1.42 1.63 1.15
68
3/1/20072.12%-0.90%-1.65%-0.98%0.69%1.15%10.00%-1.65%-0.98%-0.69%1.161.061.111.01-3.32%1.15% 1.38 1.64 1.17
69
4/1/20073.59%0.16%0.32%1.70%-0.90%4.33%10.00%0.32%1.70%0.90%1.161.061.131.022.91%4.33% 1.42 1.72 1.19
70
5/1/20074.23%0.51%-0.93%1.78%0.47%3.34%10.00%-0.93%1.78%-0.47%1.161.051.151.010.38%3.34% 1.42 1.77 1.17
71
6/1/20072.89%-1.03%2.32%-2.79%-2.56%-1.47%10.00%2.32%-2.79%2.56%1.161.081.121.042.08%-1.47% 1.45 1.75 1.24
72
7/1/20071.18%-5.51%2.12%1.76%-1.26%-3.18%10.00%2.12%1.76%1.26%1.161.101.141.055.14%-3.18% 1.52 1.69 1.36
73
8/1/2007-0.48%1.82%1.84%1.40%-0.11%1.28%-11.82%0.00%1.40%0.11%1.181.101.151.053.33%1.28% 1.58 1.71 1.41
74
9/1/20073.64%0.59%0.66%-1.23%2.77%3.80%10.00%0.66%0.00%0.00%1.181.111.151.050.66%3.80% 1.59 1.78 1.44
75
10/1/2007-4.26%3.27%-0.53%2.12%-0.11%1.35%-13.27%0.00%2.12%0.11%1.221.111.181.055.50%1.35% 1.67 1.80 1.58
76
11/1/2007-12.98%4.81%0.99%-4.46%1.26%-3.95%-14.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.281.111.181.054.81%-3.95% 1.75 1.73 1.58
77
12/1/20072.69%-1.30%1.88%1.50%-2.43%-1.13%10.00%1.88%0.00%0.00%1.281.131.181.051.88%-1.13% 1.79 1.71 1.52
78
1/1/2008-12.26%2.59%-1.36%-5.12%1.63%-6.24%-12.59%0.00%-5.12%-1.63%1.311.131.121.04-4.16%-6.24% 1.71 1.60 1.59
79
2/1/20081.55%-1.34%2.37%-2.54%-2.16%-2.62%10.00%2.37%0.00%0.00%1.311.151.121.042.37%-2.62% 1.75 1.56 1.63
80
3/1/2008-0.34%-2.06%0.62%-3.12%-1.78%-0.90%-1-2.06%0.00%-3.12%1.78%1.291.151.081.05-3.41%-0.90% 1.69 1.55 1.51
81
4/1/20087.35%-0.21%-0.03%3.71%-0.82%4.66%10.00%-0.03%0.00%0.00%1.291.151.081.05-0.03%4.66% 1.69 1.62 1.55
82
5/1/20081.22%0.61%-2.39%0.91%-1.56%1.50%10.00%-2.39%0.91%1.56%1.291.131.091.070.08%1.50% 1.69 1.65 1.44
83
6/1/2008-5.79%-2.77%2.78%-2.94%0.89%-8.73%-1-2.77%0.00%-2.94%-0.89%1.251.131.061.06-6.60%-8.73% 1.58 1.50 1.39
84
7/1/20081.43%-0.51%1.45%-0.58%1.17%-0.90%10.00%1.45%0.00%0.00%1.251.141.061.061.45%-0.90% 1.61 1.49 1.41
85
8/1/2008-1.19%0.77%0.75%0.14%0.45%1.53%-10.77%0.00%0.14%-0.45%1.261.141.061.060.46%1.53% 1.61 1.51 1.47
86
9/1/2008-5.90%-4.48%0.97%-1.41%2.51%-9.89%-1-4.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.201.141.061.06-4.48%-9.89% 1.54 1.36 1.67
87
10/1/2008-19.62%1.01%-2.44%-14.80%4.43%-18.05%-11.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.221.141.061.061.01%-18.05% 1.56 1.12 1.81
88
11/1/2008-30.41%12.48%2.68%-3.12%1.93%-7.21%-112.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.371.141.061.0612.48%-7.21% 1.75 1.04 2.12
89
12/1/2008-16.20%2.30%-2.07%-2.43%4.74%0.97%-12.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.401.141.061.062.30%0.97% 1.79 1.05 2.07
90
1/1/20092.05%-0.34%-3.73%0.88%-5.86%-8.57%10.00%-3.73%0.00%0.00%1.401.101.061.06-3.73%-8.57% 1.72 0.96 2.12
91
2/1/2009-11.76%-0.97%-2.90%4.89%-1.14%-11.37%-1-0.97%0.00%4.89%1.14%1.391.101.111.075.06%-11.37% 1.81 0.85 2.37
92
3/1/20092.14%3.60%1.71%-7.02%2.59%8.00%10.00%1.71%0.00%0.00%1.391.121.111.071.71%8.00% 1.84 0.91 2.44
93
4/1/20099.80%3.35%-3.53%2.64%-2.56%9.47%10.00%-3.53%2.64%2.56%1.391.081.141.101.68%9.47% 1.87 1.00 2.45
94
5/1/20095.36%3.65%-0.43%3.86%-3.19%5.68%10.00%-0.43%3.86%3.19%1.391.071.191.136.62%5.68% 2.00 1.06 2.51
95
6/1/20092.38%-0.10%3.09%2.16%-4.38%-0.07%10.00%3.09%2.16%4.38%1.391.111.211.189.63%-0.07% 2.19 1.06 2.42
96
7/1/20095.51%3.35%2.24%-4.39%2.34%7.20%10.00%2.24%-4.39%-2.34%1.391.131.161.15-4.49%7.20% 2.09 1.13 2.55
97
8/1/20094.89%-0.50%2.97%2.39%-4.33%3.63%10.00%2.97%2.39%4.33%1.391.171.191.209.69%3.63% 2.29 1.17 2.70
98
9/1/20094.99%-1.39%2.55%0.47%-1.84%3.48%10.00%2.55%0.47%1.84%1.391.201.191.234.85%3.48% 2.40 1.22 2.79
99
10/1/20094.75%-4.41%-0.38%0.20%0.85%-1.94%10.00%-0.38%0.20%-0.85%1.391.191.191.22-1.02%-1.94% 2.38 1.19 3.06
100
11/1/20095.88%0.46%1.57%3.39%-2.27%5.98%10.00%1.57%3.39%2.27%1.391.211.231.247.23%5.98% 2.55 1.26 3.21