Research cost-effectiveness
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A note on distributions usedLayout of the spreadsheetA note on estimates of spread
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Each variable is modelled as being log-normally distributed. That is, for variable X, log-normally distributed, Y=ln(X) is modelled as having a normal distribution. When we mention the parameters mu, and sigma, for X, we refer to the mean(=median) and standard deviation of the normally distributed variable, Y, whilst when we use the term 'median', we refer to the median of the log-normally distributed variable X. The key estimated variables each have their own sheet, with the name of that variable, on which the values are calculated from sources. The summary figures (medians and sigmas) for each variable, are then linked onto the 'Summary sheet'. In this sheet, to the right of the full list of variables, in column Y, calculations based on those summary figures begin, including calculating the medians, means, and sigmas for the three key benefits (these are in BOLD): that from earlier eradication of the burden of disease, that from displaced research funding, and that from displaced control funding. There is then a very rough figure which summarises these three benefits into a single DALYs/$ figure. However, this final figure is not to be considered particularly accurate.When operating on variables, each of which has its own sigma, we have attempted to create a sigma for the function of these variables, so that we can track uncertainty through the spreadsheet. In many cases, there is no mathematically acceptable way to accomplish this. Where possible, we have attempted to make any assumptions we make clear, but there may remain missing assumptions which feed into our calculations of sigma values. These values are included only because they give indications of the uncertainty we have around the estimates. They should not be treated as reliable estimates of uncertainty.
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