2020 Election Model

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AN	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA
1	Richard Charnin									https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx
2										https://news.gallup.com/poll/328310/party-average-2020-winds-similar-prior-years.aspx
3			Party	ID (1-4)	4					https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx
4			State	Pre-elec	National	National	Trump					2020 National Model
5			Gallup	Polls	Gallup	NEP	NEP Adj	Turnout %		Estimated	Party-ID
6			1	2	3	4	Shares	Party-iD		Turnout (m)	NEP	Biden	Trump	Other			2016 vs. 2020
7		Dem	42.1%	36.7%	30.0%	37.0%	7%	100%	Dem	57,258.75	37.0%	87.0%	12.0%	1.0%			Recorded	NEP							Gallup	CA
8		Rep	42.3%	30.8%	29.0%	36.0%	1%	100%	Rep	55,666.08	36.0%	5.0%	95.0%	0.0%			2016	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other				Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
9		Ind	15.6%	32.6%	41.0%	27.0%	11%	100%	Ind	41,703.17	27.0%	43.0%	52.0%	5.0%			Dem	36	90.4	7.8	1.8	37	36	Dem	48.3%	85.00%	14.00%	1.00%
10										Natl Model	100.0%	45.61%	52.67%	1.72%			Rep	33	8	88	4	36	33	Repub	34.0%	3.00%	96.00%	1.00%
11		Default								Votes	154,628	70,531	81,439	2,658			Ind	31	42	46	12	27	31		17.7%	39.00%	55.00%	6.00%
12		Dem	42.1%	36.7%	30.0%	37.0%	7%	100%		Margin	10,908.70						Total	100	48.20	46.11	5.69				100.0%	48.98%	49.14%	1.89%
13		Rep	42.3%	30.8%	29.0%	36.0%	2%	100%		State Model	100.0%	45.12%	53.23%	1.65%			Forecast	Gallup							17.501	8.572	8.599	0.330
14		Ind	15.6%	32.6%	41.0%	27.0%	11%	100%		Votes	154,628	69,770	82,303	2,555			2020	Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
15										Margin/EV	12,533.52	149	389				Dem	31	88	12	0
16	Enter turnout as a % of Party-ID									Recorded	100.0%	51.31%	46.86%	1.83%			Rep	31	3	95	2
17	Enter % adjustments to Trump's NEP vote shares									Votes	158,384	81,269	74,217	2,898			Ind	38	40	55	5
18	158.3m bogus recorded votes, but an estimated 154.6m true votes.									Margin/EV	-7,052.00	306	232				Total	100	43.41	54.07	2.52
19	The difference is due to illegal ballots (vast majority for Biden)...
20																	Recorded	NEP
21								Party-ID	1	Poll =0, Model=1			Previous				2016	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
22				Party-ID Poll		Pre-Elect Poll		NEP					Pre-Elect Poll				White	71	37	57	6			RCP Average	10/15 - 10/26	--	44.1	53.1	-9	Average
23			Dem	Rep	Ind	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Date	Biden	Trump	Approval		Black	12	89	8	3			Rasmussen	10/28 - 11/1	1500 LV	52	48	4	Rasmussen
24	1	Reuters	37.0%	29.0%	34.0%	57.0%	42.0%	48.1%	45.0%	6.9%	-3.1%	1014	51.0%	41.0%	42		Other	17	66	28	6			NBC/WSJ	10/29 - 10/31	1000 RV	45	52	-7	NBC/WSJ
25	2	Zogby	36.0%	34.0%	30.0%	46.0%	43.0%	45.8%	43.9%	10.3%	-2.0%	1013	45.5%	43.6%	51		Total	100	48.17	46.19	5.64			FOX News	10/27 - 10/29	1246 LV	46	54	-8	FOX News
26	3	Rasmussen	37.0%	32.0%	31.0%	48.0%	52.0%	47.5%	48.0%	4.4%	0.5%	1101	48.0%	47.0%	52									The Hill	10/25 - 10/28	2359 LV	49	51	-2	The Hill
27	4	NBC	35.0%	27.0%	38.0%	52.0%	45.0%	49.8%	42.8%	7.4%	-7.0%	1020	53.0%	39.0%	44		Forecast	Census						YouGov	10/25 - 10/27	1365 LV	42	56	-14	YouGov
28	5	Fox	42.0%	37.0%	21.0%	54.0%	46.0%	51.6%	43.2%	5.2%	-8.5%	1006	53.0%	43.0%	47		2020	Pct	Biden	Trump	Other			Emerson	10/25 - 10/26	1121 LV	45	51	-6	Emerson
29	6	CNN	31.0%	26.0%	43.0%	57.0%	41.0%	54.0%	43.7%	2.3%	-10.3%	1004	53.0%	42.0%	40		White	73.3	36	62	2			USA Today	10/23 - 10/27	1000 LV	44	53	-9	USA Today
30	7	WaPo/ABC	37.0%	29.0%	34.0%	55.0%	43.0%	52.3%	46.0%	1.7%	-6.3%	1009	55.0%	43.0%	45		Black	12.4	86	13	1			Reuters	10/23 - 10/27	1110 RV	42	57	-15	Reuters
31	8	YouGov	37.4%	27.3%	35.3%	56.0%	42.0%	42.3%	43.5%	14.2%	1.2%	1006	46.0%	38.0%	45		Other	14.3	62	35	3
32	9	The Hill	37.0%	32.0%	31.0%	51.0%	49.0%	46.2%	44.2%	9.6%	-2.0%	1028	45.0%	40.0%	46		Total	100	45.92	52.06	2.02
33	10	IBD/TIPP	37.3%	34.4%	28.3%	48.8%	45.6%	48.1%	46.4%	5.5%	-1.7%	1101	50.7%	44.3%	46
34		Average	36.7%	30.8%	32.6%	52.5%	44.9%	48.6%	44.7%	6.8%	-3.9%		50.0%	42.1%	45.8
35					Recorded	51.31%	46.86%
36			SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS			81.269	74.217											Key states	EV	TRUMP	BIDEN	Margin
37		Party ID	Dem	Rep	Ind				Adjusted Party-ID		Dem	Rep	Ind	Total				Total	146	54.2%	44.2%	4,809
38		NEP	37.0%	36.0%	27.0%				1 Party-ID	NEP	37.0%	36.0%	27.0%	100.0%				AZ	11	54.9%	43.4%	379
39		Turnout	100%	100%	100%				2 Turnout		100%	100%	100%					GA	16	55.3%	43.1%	594
40		Adjusted	37.0%	36.0%	27.0%				3 Party-ID*Turnout		37.0%	36.0%	27.0%	100.0%				MI	16	52.7%	45.5%	388
41		Trump%	12.0%	95.0%	52.0%				Adj Turnout=2*3		37.0%	36.0%	27.0%	100.0%				MN	10	52.8%	45.6%	233
42		Base case	Biden	Trump	Other				Adj Turnout/M39		37.0%	36.0%	27.0%	100.0%				NV	6	55.4%	43.0%	171
43		Vote share	45.61%	52.67%	1.72%						37.0%	36.0%	27.0%					PA	20	53.9%	44.6%	623
44		Votes	70,530.78	81,439.48	2,657.75										Vote Shares			VA	13	54.6%	43.8%	472
45	% Rep	95.0%	Trump	% Dem						Dem	Rep	Ind		Biden	Trump	Other		WI	10	53.9%	44.5%	302
46		10.0%	11.0%	12.0%	13.0%	14.0%				37.03%	36.00%	26.97%		45.61%	52.67%	1.72%		FL	29	54.3%	44.0%	1,111
47	% Ind			Trump					Adjusted	-2.00%	2.00%							NC	15	54.2%	44.2%	536
48	54%	52.5%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	53.9%			State avg	35.42%	39.51%	25.07%	Avg	43.57%	54.82%	1.61%
49	53%	52.2%	52.6%	52.9%	53.3%	53.7%			Party-ID	37.05%	37.32%	25.63%	Wtd	45.12%	53.23%	1.65%
50	52%	51.9%	52.3%	52.67%	53.0%	53.4%
51	51%	51.7%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.1%						Pre-election Polls
52	50%	51.4%	51.8%	52.1%	52.5%	52.9%			Party-ID	Reuters					Party-ID	Zogby
53				Votes				LV	NEP	Biden	Trump	Other			NEP	Biden	Trump	Other
54	54%	81,128	81,701	82,274	82,846	83,419		Dem	37.0%	92%	5%	3.0%		Dem	37.0%	91.0%	6.0%	3.0%
55	53%	80,711	81,284	81,857	82,429	83,002		Rep	36.0%	6%	93%	1.0%		Rep	36.0%	6.0%	91.0%	3.0%
56	52%	80,294	80,867	81,439	82,012	82,585		Ind	27.0%	44%	36%	20.0%		Ind	27.0%	37.0%	33.0%	30.0%
57	51%	79,877	80,450	81,022	81,595	82,168		Calc	100.0%	48.1%	45.0%	6.9%		Calc	100.0%	45.8%	43.9%	10.3%
58	50%	79,460	80,033	80,605	81,178	81,751		Poll	100.0%	57.0%	42.0%	1.0%		Poll	100.0%	46.0%	43.0%	11.0%
59				Margin
60	54%	10,286	11,432	12,577	13,722	14,867				Rasmussen						NBC
61	53%	9,452	10,598	11,743	12,888	14,033		LV	NEP	Biden	Trump	Other			NEP	Biden	Trump	Other
62	52%	8,618	9,764	10,909	12,054	13,199		Dem	37.0%	90%	6%	4.0%		Dem	37.0%	94.0%	4.0%	2.0%
63	51%	7,784	8,929	10,075	11,220	12,365		Rep	36.0%	5%	92%	3.0%		Rep	36.0%	5.0%	87.0%	8.0%
64	50%	6,950	8,095	9,241	10,386	11,531		Ind	27.0%	46%	47%	7.0%		Ind	27.0%	49.0%	37.0%	14.0%
65				Biden				Calc	100.0%	47.5%	48.0%	4.4%		Calc	100.0%	49.8%	42.8%	7.4%
66	54%	45.8%	45.4%	45.1%	44.7%	44.3%		Poll	100.0%	48.0%	52.0%	0.0%		Poll	100.0%	52.0%	45.0%	3.0%
67	53%	46.1%	45.7%	45.3%	45.0%	44.6%
68	52%	46.4%	46.0%	45.6%	45.2%	44.9%
69	51%	46.6%	46.3%	45.9%	45.5%	45.1%				Fox						CNN
70	50%	46.9%	46.5%	46.2%	45.8%	45.4%			NEP	Biden	Trump	Other			NEP	Biden	Trump	Other
71								Dem	37.0%	94%	6%	0.0%		Dem	37.0%	96%	3%	1.0%
72			Party	2020				Rep	36.0%	4%	92%	4.0%		Rep	36.0%	7%	89%	4.0%
73		NEP	ID	Biden	Trump	Other		Ind	27.0%	57%	29%	14.0%		Ind	27.0%	59%	39%	2.0%
74		Dem	37.0%	94%	5%	1%		Calc	100.0%	51.6%	43.2%	5.2%		Calc	100.0%	54.0%	43.7%	2.3%
75		Rep	36.0%	6%	94%	0%		Poll	100.0%	54.0%	46.0%	0.0%		Poll	100.0%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%
76		Ind	27.0%	54%	41%	5%
77		Recorded	100.0%	51.5%	46.7%	1.7%				WaPo/ABC						YouGov
78			Party	2016					NEP	Biden	Trump	Other			NEP	Biden	Trump	Other
79		NEP	ID	Clinton	Trump	Other		Dem	37.0%	96%	4%	0.0%		Dem	37.0%	89%	1%	10.0%
80		Dem	36%	90.4%	7.8%	1.8%		Rep	36.0%	9%	90%	1.0%		Rep	36.0%	2%	92%	6.0%
81		Rep	33%	8%	88%	4.0%		Ind	27.0%	50%	45%	5.0%		Ind	27.0%	32%	37%	31.0%
82		Ind	31%	42%	46%	12.0%		Calc	100.0%	52.3%	46.0%	1.7%		Calc	100.0%	42.3%	43.5%	14.2%
83		Recorded	100.0%	48.2%	46.1%	5.7%		Poll	100.0%	55.0%	43.0%	2.0%		Poll	100.0%	56.0%	42.0%	2.0%
84
85										The Hill						IBD/TIPP
86									NEP	Biden	Trump	Other		RV	NEP	Biden	Trump	Other
87								Dem	37.0%	83%	11%	6.0%		Dem	37.0%	93.2%	4.3%	2.5%
88								Rep	36.0%	13%	83%	4.0%		Rep	36.0%	5.1%	90.4%	4.5%
89								Ind	27.0%	40%	38%	22.0%		Ind	27.0%	43.6%	45.6%	10.8%
90								Calc	100.0%	46.2%	44.2%	9.6%		Calc	100.0%	48.1%	46.4%	5.5%																														Biden	Trump
91								Poll	100.0%	51.0%	49.0%	0.0%		Poll	100.0%	48.8%	45.6%	5.6%																										47.30%	52.10%	m19	nat	45.61%	52.67%
92																																												45.12%	53.23%	k96	state	45.12%	53.23%
93		2020 STATE MODEL						0.050	0.050																																			-0.17	-0.12		Adjustment	-2.00%	2.00%
94																							Trump																							2017		2020 adjusted
95				Census (154m recorded)				Adjusted Party-ID				2020 Model Vote share				Model Vote (000)				Electoral vote		Vote/PtyID	Model-			Recorded		Trump																	wtd	42.79%	41.60%	40.79%	43.60%
96	State	ElecVote	Vote	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Dem	Rep	Ind	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin		Biden	Trump	Trump	Recorded	Adjusted/	Recorded	Trump	Biden	Margin																	avg	42.4%	42.5%	40.4%	44.5%
97		538	154,628	51.31%	46.86%	1.83%	-4.45%	37.05%	37.32%	25.6%	45.12%	53.23%	1.65%	8.11%	69,770	82,303	2,555	12,534	BG*	149	389	125.6%	6.37%	154,628	158,384	74,217	81,269	-7,052										136,216,677		65,719,398			62,889,892			Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
98	AK	3	351	42.8%	52.8%	4.4%	10.1%	29.9%	42.4%	27.7%	40.0%	58.3%	1.68%	18.2%	141	205	6	64	AK		3	125%	5.4%	351	360	190	154	36	AK				Final CNN 2016 exit poll (reported)				Alabama	2,123,372	WTA	729,547	34.36%	–	1,318,255	62.08%	AK	36.9%	45.4%	34.9%	47.4%
99	AL	9	2,268	36.6%	62.0%	1.4%	25.5%	27.8%	48.8%	23.4%	36.7%	61.9%	1.45%	25.2%	832	1,403	33	571	AL		9	127%	-0.2%	2,268	2,323	1,441	850	592	AL				28 states only				Alaska	318,608	WTA	116,454	36.55%	–	163,387	51.28%	AL	34.8%	51.8%	32.8%	53.8%
100	AR	6	1,190	34.8%	62.4%	2.8%	27.6%	27.3%	45.6%	27.1%	37.7%	60.7%	1.63%	23.0%	448	722	19	274	AR		6	137%	-1.7%	1,190	1,219	761	424	337	AR		Votes	Share	Democrat	Repub	Ind	Trump	Arizona	2,573,165	WTA	1,161,167	45.13%	–	1,252,401	48.67%	AR	34.3%	48.6%	32.3%	50.6%