Verducci effect for 2017
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2013 Candidate Name/teamAge as of Jan 20132012 IP2012 increase2012 ERA2012 FIP2012 xFIP2012 SIERA2013 IP2013 Delta2013 ERA2013 FIP2013 xFIP2013 SIERAArm Injury?VerdictNotes
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Chris Sale, White Sox231921213.053.273.243.25214 1/322 1/33.073.172.952.96NoImprove
A freak of nature despite mechanics
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Jarrod Parker, A's23214 2/3783.473.433.954.15197-17 2/33.974.44.414.48NoRegressMissed all of 2014 and 2015
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Jose Quintana, White Sox23185633.764.234.334.5200153.513.823.863.92NoImprove
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Joe Kelly, Cardinals24187553.5344.034.12124-632.694.014.194.31NoRegress slightlyand threw 63 fewer innings
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Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
23159 2/7363.162.822.812.8118323 5/733.213.153.17NoRegress slightly
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Chris Rusin, Cubs2517334 1/36.374.854.534.47187.314 2/73.934.754.464.78NoImprove… but spent most of 2014 in AAA
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Matt Harvey, Mets23169 2/733 2/32.733.33.493.42178.392.2722.632.71YesInjured (TJ)
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Alex Cobb, Rays24177 2/3334.033.673.543.51143.3-34 3/82.763.363.023.26NoImprove… but significnatly fewer innings
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Felix Doubront, Red Sox2416131 2/34.864.373.813.84162.31 2/74.323.784.144.26NoImprove
… but has also significantly fallen off in terms of performance since
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Dan Straily, A's23191 1/330 2/33.896.485.34.72184-7 1/33.964.054.224.26NoImprove
… but fell off a cliff in 2014 and has spent most of time since in minors
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Andrew Werner, Padres25166 2/330 1/35.584.093.933.85165-1 2/35.784.28??No
Regress (all of 2013 in minors)
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Results: 5/11 45% regressed
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Results: just 1/11 had arm injury
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2014 Candidate Name/team
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Pitcher, TeamAge as of Jan 20142013 IP2013 IP delta2013 ERA2013 FIP2013 xFIP2013 SIERA2014 IP2014 Delta2014 ERA2014 FIP2014 xFIP2014 SIERAArm Injury?VerdictNotes
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Gerrit Cole, Pirates22196 1/364 1/33.222.913.143.34158 1/3-383.653.233.253.23yesRegress
2 separate D/L trips with shoulder issues
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Erik Johnson, White Sox23169 2/362 2/33.255.44.734.76156 1/3-13 1/36.464.325.025.09yesRegress
One short D/L trip for "shoulder fatigue"
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James Paxton, Mariners24169 2/350 2/31.53.263.083.2487-82 2/33.043.283.543.8yesRegress
missed most of season w/ Shoulder strain
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Taylor Jordan, Nationals2414247 2/33.663.493.83.8656 2/3-85 1/35.614.54.284.18yesRegress
Missed most of season w/ sore elbow
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Michael Wacha, Cardinals21179 2/345 2/32.782.923.363.32109-70 2/33.23.173.713.74yesRegress
Stress fracture in Shoulder cost half the season
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Sonny Gray, Athletics23195 1/343 1/32.672.72.923.1121923 2/33.083.463.473.56NoBasically the same
only 64 mlb innings in 2013; jumped up in 2014 and did not miss a start
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Danny Salazar, Indians2314941 2/33.123.162.752.79170.6621 2/34.253.523.453.33NoRegress
Spent most of 2014 in minors; mlb innings worse
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Andre Rienzo, White Sox25169414.825.854.764.94111.333-57 2/36.825.734.694.6NoRegressNot hurt, just ineffective
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Yordano Ventura, Royals2215040 2/33.525.334.34.46208.3358 1/33.23.63.743.87NoImproved
Solid 2014, RoY votes only missed 2-3 starts but regressed in 2015
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Jose Fernandez, Marlins20172 2/338 2/32.192.733.083.2251.66-1212.442.182.182.2YesInjured (TJ)TJ surgery May 2014.
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Results: 8/10 regressed
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Results: 6/10 arm injuries
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2015 Candidate Name/Team
http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/02/03/year-after-effect-madison-bumgarner-yordano-ventura
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/the-20-pitchers-who-threw-3300-pitches-in-2015/
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Pitcher, Team (blue is his "real" candidate)Age as of Jan 20152014 IP2014 IP delta2014 ERA2014 FIP2014 xFIP2014 SIERA2015 IP2015 Delta2015 ERA2015 FIP2015 xFIP2015 SIERAArm Injury?VerdictNotes
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Yordano Ventura, Royals23208 1/358 1/33.23.63.743.87193.66-14 2/34.083.573.63.69YesRegress
Ulnar nerve D/L trip and demotion to AAA
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Rubby De La Rosa, Red Sox
25161 2/351 1/34.434.34.034.21188.66274.674.814.14.19NoSlightly worse #s
Slightly worse numbers, no injuries, but ERA 2nd worst of any NL qualifier
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Madison Bumgarner, Giants
2427046 2/32.983.052.992.98218.33-51 2/32.932.873.023NoBasically the same
No appreciable changes in performance
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Nathan Eovaldi, Marlins/Yankees
24199 2/345 1/34.373.373.783.91154.33-45 1/34.23.423.813.99YesInjury but numbers same
Shut down all of Sept w/ elbow Inflammation
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Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays23166 1/3433.652.843.173.1846.33-1201.673.543.343.28NoTrending better
Missed year due to torn ACL; no arm issues
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Jesse Hahn, Padres/Athletics
24115 2/342 2/33.073.43.593.7396.66-193.353.513.94.01YesInjury, worse numbers
Missed entire 2nd half w/ forearm/elbow inflammation
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Daniel Norris, Blue Jays/Tigers
2113140 1/33.865.065.855.95150.6619 2/33.754.634.634.44NoBasically the sameMost of year in minors
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Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
25220373.142.942.562.64141.99-783.462.812.692.76No
Regressed; numbers worse
2 D/L trips (neck and back)
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Anthony Ranaudo, Red Sox/Rangers
24177 1/3374.816.895.795.93133.33-447.635.165.775.24NoRegressed
SSS for MLB stats; mostly in minors in 2015, slight arm injury in ST
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Trevor Bauer, Indians2319936 2/34.184.014.143.95176-234.554.334.284.2NoRegressed
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Allen Webster, Red Sox/Diamondbacks
24181365.034.354.974.96108-735.818.366.025.93NoRegressed
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Drew Hutchison, Blue Jays23184 2/335 1/34.483.853.823.59154.1-30 5/95.574.424.214.09NoRegressed
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Julio Teheran, Braves2322132 1/32.893.493.723.68200.66-20 1/34.044.44.194.23NoRegressed
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Tyler Matzek, Rockies23184 2/330 1/34.053.783.924.0835.66-1494.095.956.386.45NoRegressedFell off a cliff; totally lost it mentally
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Results: 11/14 78% regressed
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Results: just 3/14 had arm injury
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http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/09/year-after-effect-noah-syndergaard-luis-severino
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2016 Candidate Name/Team
Age as of Jan 20162015 IP2015 IP delta2015 ERA2015 FIP2015 xFIP2015 SIERA2016 IP2016 Delta2016 ERA2016 FIP2016 xFIP2016 SIERAArm Injury?Verdict
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Lance McCullers, Houston2116459 1/33.223.263.53.5781-833.2233.063.68YesInjury but numbers sameShoulder and Elbow issues
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Noah Snydergaard, NY Mets
22198 2/365 2/33.243.252.912.95183.66-152.62.292.672.95NoImprovedFreak of physicality?
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Luis Severino, NY Yankees21161 2/348 2/32.894.373.723.84151.33-10 1/35.834.484.044.06NoRegressed
Dumped to minors, converted to relief.
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Carlos Martinez, St. Louis23179 2/352 2/33.013.213.283.44195.315 5/83.043.613.813.91NoSlightly worse #s
Advanced #s all suffered but innings up
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Tyler Duffey, Minnesota2419646 2/33.13.243.643.83163.33-32 2/36.434.733.894.02NoRegressed
ERA nearly doubled, dumped to minors
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Results: 3/5 60% regressed
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Results: 1/5 20% had arm injury
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http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/02/07/year-after-effect-julio-urias-los-angeles-dodgers
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2017 Candidate Name/Team
Age as of Jan 20172016 IP2016 IP delta increase2016 ERA2016 FIP2016 xFIP2016 SIERA2017 IP2017 Delta2017 ERA2017 FIP2017 xFIP2017 SIERAArm Injury?Verdict
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Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox22155.333333356 1/34.913.924.524.55only 44 MLB innings in 2016
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Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays23203.666666770 1/333.553.754.01full season in MLB
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Rob Whalen, Mariners22144.6666667486.575.054.774.47only 24.2 MLB innings in 2016
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Brock Stewart, Dodgers24149485.795.95.034.62Only 28 MLB innings in 2016
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Joe Musgrove, Astros23147.333333346 2/34.064.184.043.98Only 62 MLB innings in 2016
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Julio Urias, Dodgers19127.6666667403.393.173.693.8877 MLB innings
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Jeff Hoffman, Rockies23150464.886.274.965.2231.1 MLB innings
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Michael Fulmer, Tigers23174.333333349 2/33.063.763.954.03Full season in mlb: AL ROY
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Sean Manaea, A's24166.333333344 2/33.864.083.964.04full season in MLB
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German Marquez, Rockies21187.333333348 1/35.234.263.893.97Just 20.2 MLB innings
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Jake Thompson, Phillies22183.666666743 2/35.76.165.645.6853.5 MLB innings
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Daniel Mengden, A's23170.333333339 2/36.54.344.574.572 MLB innings
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