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This spreadsheet is an update to previous reasoning we have published (see reasoning here and original values here). We update these values when investigating grants to these locations.

New rows and columns are highlighed in orange.
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Burkina FasoChad (SMC)Chad (LLINs)ReasoningDRCGuineaMalawiNigeria (AMF LLINs, PMI states)ReasoningNigeria (AMF LLINs, GF states)ReasoningNigeria (SMC, overall)Nigeria (SMC, first $15m)Nigeria (SMC, last $10m)ReasoningNigeria (SMC, Oyo)Nigeria (SMC, FCT)UgandaTogoReasoning
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Priors
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace AMF costs--20%CalculationN/A20%20%15%Calculation20%Calculation------20%20%Calculation
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs25%25%-------25%25%25%CalculationN/AN/A--
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Considerations that were informally informing priors, with guess of contribution to priors
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Global funding gaps are relatively small (though GiveWell-funded SMC is a large portion of overall SMC)30%30%40%Copied from other AMF adjustmentsN/A40%40%40%Copied from other countries for nets.40%Copied from other countries for nets.30%30%30%Copied from previous adjustment. There was a large reduction in the Nigeria gap from 2019 to 2020 (https://www.givewell.org/charities/malaria-consortium#GlobalNeed), but this was already captured in our prior.N/AN/A40%40%Copied from other countries for nets.
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Surveys show major gaps in LLIN coverage---10%Copied from other AMF adjustmentsN/A-10%-10%-15%This is -5% compared to other countries. WHO’s World Malaria Report 2019 reports that roughly 57% of the population at risk for malaria in sub-Saharan Africa had access to ITNs in 2018; in Nigeria this figure was a bit lower, under 50%. (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565721)-10%Copied from other countries for nets.---N/AN/A-10%-10%Copied from other countries for nets.
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AMF as funder of last resort---10%Copied from other AMF adjustmentsN/A-10%-10%-10%Copied from other countries.-10%Copied from other countries.---N/AN/A-10%-10%Copied from other countries.
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Other funders taking over philanthropically-funded areas in SMC-5%-5%--------5%-5%-5%Copied from previous adjustment.N/AN/A--
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Newly added considerations, with percentage point update on priors
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Malaria funding has been increasing20%15%15%Copied from other Chad adjustmentN/A5%10%10%AMF's support will go to states where PMI works. PMI funding has stayed about the same since 2017 (https://www.pmi.gov/about/pmi-annual-report-2020). However, there have been periodic increases in PMI's funding, and the new Biden administration has signaled renewed commitment to international engagement, leading us to believe that a funding increase is possible.10%From this document, pg. 40%10%15%Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight increase for the last $10m to account for the possibility of increased PMI funding. Reasoning: PMI funding has stayed about the same since 2017 (https://www.pmi.gov/about/pmi-annual-report-2020). However, there have been periodic increases in PMI's funding, and the new Biden administration has signaled renewed commitment to international engagement, leading us to believe that a funding increase is possible..N/AN/A10%20%This is -10% compared to previous Togo adjustment. We've learned that a large part of the increase in the Global Fund malaria allocation is going to health systems strengthening work and is highly unlikely to be reallocated to malaria needs.
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Global Fund allocations are more dynamic than we realized15%15%15%There will be a gap left over after AMF's funding, which could suggest that we should weigh this consideration less heavily than we would if we were fully filling a gap. However, we would expect that with additional funding, the Global Fund would also prioritize covering the areas that will be covered due to AMF's funding. We think these considerations roughly cancel each other out and have copied this adjustment from the other AMF adjustments.N/A15%15%0%AMF's support will go to states where PMI works. We don't expect these states to receive Global Fund funding.10%This is -5% compared to other countries. AMF's support will go to states where the Global Fund works, where a mis-quantification during the country application process has left a funding gap for 2022-23. Our understanding from the NMEP is that the Global Fund will reallocate funding to fill the 2023 gap but cannot do so in time to fill the 2022 gap. We have also heard that the first round of Global Fund portfolio optimization is set to occur in early 2022, which also suggests that reallocation is unlikely to occur in time to fill the 2022 gap.5%10%30%Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight decrease for the first $15m and a substantial increase for the last $10m. Reasoning: we weigh this consideration more heavily for a situation that requires less funding from the Global Fund.N/AN/A15%20%This is +5% compared to previous Togo adjustment. We have heard that the first round of Global Fund portfolio optimization is set to occur in early 2022 and that the 2023 LLIN campaign gaps will be a high priority.
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Other funders are taking AMF and Malaria Consortium in account15%15%10%This is -5% compared to other countries. AMF has not supported distributions in Chad before, so it seems less likely that the Global Fund took funding from AMF into account prior to recent discussions.N/A15%15%10%This is -5% compared to other countries. AMF has not supported distributions in Nigeria before, so it seems less likely that PMI took funding from AMF into account prior to recent discussions.10%This is -5% compared to other countries. AMF has not supported distributions in Global-Fund supported states in Nigeria before, so it seems unlikely that the NMEP/Global Fund took funding from AMF into account prior to recent discussions. Additionally, our understanding is that this gap is the result of a mis-quantification during the country application process—in other words, the Global Fund did not intend to leave a gap for another funder to fill.20%15%15%Copied from previous adjustment. No difference between tranches because all room for more funding is in areas Malaria Consortium will have supported since 2021 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12dIOJZSHmkdTlNEFISBZXLC5OjjSmAtr_z1CkY0X2bA/edit#gid=1729841067).N/AN/A15%20%This is +5% compared to previous Togo adjustment. AMF's support is mentioned in Togo's most recent application to the Global Fund (https://data.theglobalfund.org/investments/documents/TGO).
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More funding leads to more room for funding-15%-15%-15%Copied from other AMF adjustmentsN/A-15%-15%-15%Copied from other countries.-15%Copied from other countries.-10%-15%-20%Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight decrease for the last $10m. Reasoning: We weight this consideration more heavily for Nigeria, where room for more funding includes newly-eligible areas and the addition of 5th cycle (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12dIOJZSHmkdTlNEFISBZXLC5OjjSmAtr_z1CkY0X2bA/edit#gid=1729841067). We also weigh this consideration more heavily for the "end" of a funding gap.N/AN/A-15%-15%Copied from other countries.
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AMF is relatively thoughtful about crowding out others, but less so for DRC---5%Copied from other AMF adjustments; our impression from our conversations with AMF and from the materials they have shared is that they are being similarly thoughtful about the gap in Chad.N/A-5%-5%0%We've set this at 0% because we have not thought deeply about this consideration for this particular opportunity.0%We've set this at 0% because we have not thought deeply about this consideration for this particular opportunity.---N/AN/A-5%-5%Copied from other countries. AMF has shared a detailed gap analysis spreadsheet with us for Togo.
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DRC may be relatively underfunded----N/A0%0%-----N/AN/A0%-
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Nigeria may be relatively underfunded0%0%------15%Copied from other Nigeria column. Malaria Consortium notes that for LLINs in Nigeria, "Although a number of ITN distribution campaigns have been implemented over the past decade, the coverage level remains low in some areas and varies greatly between states. Resource constraint is the main challenge as large number of ITNs are required to cover the country, which is the most populous in Africa. ITN campaigns have not been implemented for nine years in five states and six years in three states." The alleged long delays between LLIN campaigns are borne out by the evidence AMF has shared.-15%Copied from other Nigeria column. Malaria Consortium notes that for LLINs in Nigeria, "Although a number of ITN distribution campaigns have been implemented over the past decade, the coverage level remains low in some areas and varies greatly between states. Resource constraint is the main challenge as large number of ITNs are required to cover the country, which is the most populous in Africa. ITN campaigns have not been implemented for nine years in five states and six years in three states." The alleged long delays between LLIN campaigns are borne out by the evidence AMF has shared.-15%-15%-10%Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight increase for the last $10m. Reasoning: we weigh this consideration less heavily for a situation that requires less funding from the Global Fund.N/AN/A--
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Impact on net spending 2021-23, under AMF proposal-------0%If AMF commits funding, PMI will spend roughly the same amount in 2021-23 on net distributions as it would have under the counterfactual (source is an unpublished budget shared by AMF); the effect of AMF's funding in that time period will be to increase the number of nets delivered.0%N/A; the Global Fund malaria allocation to Nigeria has already been made for the 2021-23 period.---N/AN/A--
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Impact on net spending 2024, under AMF proposal-------15%If 2024 distributions are moved up to 2023, funding that PMI would have spent in 2024 is freed up (source is an unpublished budget shared by AMF). It is possible that some amount of the freed-up funding may be spent on less cost-effective uses.0%N/A; 2024 is after the current Global Fund grant cycle.---N/AN/A--
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New values
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace AMF costs--40%Calculation25%35%40%20%Calculation20%Calculation---40%60%Calculation
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs60%55%-------25%30%55%Calculation30%20%-70%Calculation
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