Models Analysis
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ABCDEGILNPRS
1
Seats WonUndecided Races:0
2
Republican seats:200
3
Democratic seats:235
4
Log Loss Score (Lower = Good)CorrectIncorrect
5
Blair ORACLE0.116367261378541619
6
FiveThirtyEight0.093110973472642312
7
Crosstab0.103239672989541817
8
Disagreement
InterestingClosingORACLE538CrosstabMBHS LL538 LLCrosstab LL
9
CA-10FALSETRUE11:00 PM65.93%77.48%81.70%d0.41660.25520.2021
10
CA-39FALSETRUE11:00 PM50.90%58.23%55.70%d0.67540.54080.5852
11
CA-45TRUETRUE11:00 PM57.83%63.20%48.50%d0.54770.45890.7236
12
CA-48TRUETRUE11:00 PM41.07%56.57%42.30%d0.88990.56970.8604
13
GA-06
FALSETRUE7:00 PM39.19%49.14%27.10%D0.93660.71051.3056
14
ME-02FALSETRUE8:00 PM54.44%63.42%63.90%d0.60810.45540.4479
15
NJ-03TRUETRUE8:00 PM45.69%54.85%45.20%d0.78330.60060.7941
16
NC-09FALSETRUE7:30 PM42.17%47.61%37.00%R0.54770.64650.4620
17
UT-04TRUETRUE10:00 PM36.88%62.28%40.70%d0.99740.47350.8989
18
WA-08
FALSETRUE11:00 PM57.28%66.98%71.80%D0.55720.40080.3313
19
AL-07FALSEFALSE8:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
20
AZ-01FALSEFALSE9:00 PM75.13%89.22%92.00%D0.28590.11410.0834
21
AZ-02FALSEFALSE9:00 PM82.58%96.74%95.90%d0.19140.03310.0419
22
AZ-03FALSEFALSE9:00 PM99.52%99.99%100.00%d0.00480.00010.0000
23
AZ-07FALSEFALSE9:00 PM100.00%99.99%100.00%D0.00000.00010.0000
24
AZ-09FALSEFALSE9:00 PM87.89%99.57%99.80%d0.12900.00430.0020
25
CA-02FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
26
CA-03FALSEFALSE11:00 PM96.10%99.97%99.80%D0.03980.00030.0020
27
CA-05FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%99.98%100.00%d0.00000.00020.0000
28
CA-06FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
29
CA-07FALSEFALSE11:00 PM91.80%99.50%99.80%D0.08550.00500.0020
30
CA-09FALSEFALSE11:00 PM95.51%99.94%99.30%d0.04600.00060.0070
31
CA-11FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
32
CA-12FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
33
CA-13FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
34
CA-14FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
35
CA-15FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
36
CA-16FALSEFALSE11:00 PM98.92%98.18%99.80%D0.01080.01840.0020
37
CA-17FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
38
CA-18FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
39
CA-19FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
40
CA-20FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%99.98%100.00%D0.00000.00020.0000
41
CA-24FALSEFALSE11:00 PM96.52%98.53%99.70%D0.03540.01480.0030
42
CA-25TRUETRUE11:00 PM33.08%63.66%72.90%D1.10630.45160.3161
43
CA-26FALSEFALSE11:00 PM98.69%99.99%99.80%d0.01320.00010.0020
44
CA-27FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
45
CA-28FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
46
CA-29FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
47
CA-30FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.99%100.00%100.00%d0.00010.00000.0000
48
CA-31FALSEFALSE11:00 PM98.21%99.89%98.20%D0.01800.00110.0182
49
CA-32FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.95%100.00%100.00%d0.00050.00000.0000
50
CA-33FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.96%100.00%100.00%d0.00040.00000.0000
51
CA-34FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%99.97%100.00%D0.00000.00030.0000
52
CA-35FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
53
CA-36FALSEFALSE11:00 PM96.05%99.81%99.30%D0.04030.00190.0070
54
CA-37FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
55
CA-38FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.95%100.00%100.00%d0.00050.00000.0000
56
CA-40FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%99.96%100.00%D0.00000.00040.0000
57
CA-41FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.53%99.99%100.00%D0.00470.00010.0000
58
CA-43FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
59
CA-44FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
60
CA-46FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.93%100.00%100.00%d0.00070.00000.0000
61
CA-47FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.69%99.99%100.00%d0.00310.00010.0000
62
CA-49FALSEFALSE11:00 PM94.57%96.00%98.30%d0.05580.04080.0171
63
CA-51FALSEFALSE11:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
64
CA-52FALSEFALSE11:00 PM95.23%99.95%99.90%d0.04890.00050.0010
65
CA-53FALSEFALSE11:00 PM99.78%99.99%100.00%d0.00220.00010.0000
66
CO-01FALSEFALSE9:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
67
CO-02FALSEFALSE9:00 PM95.05%99.95%99.90%D0.05070.00050.0010
68
CO-06FALSEFALSE9:00 PM90.06%88.75%91.50%D0.10470.11930.0888
69
CO-07FALSEFALSE9:00 PM96.90%99.93%100.00%d0.03150.00070.0000
70
CT-01FALSEFALSE8:00 PM99.93%99.99%100.00%d0.00070.00010.0000
71
CT-02FALSEFALSE8:00 PM99.40%99.98%100.00%d0.00600.00020.0000
72
CT-03FALSEFALSE8:00 PM99.93%99.99%100.00%d0.00070.00010.0000
73
CT-04FALSEFALSE8:00 PM98.80%99.98%100.00%d0.01210.00020.0000
74
CT-05FALSEFALSE8:00 PM87.35%97.48%98.10%d0.13520.02550.0192
75
DE-01FALSEFALSE8:00 PM99.65%99.78%100.00%d0.00350.00220.0000
76
FL-05FALSEFALSE7:00 PM99.80%100.00%100.00%D0.00200.00000.0000
77
FL-07FALSEFALSE7:00 PM87.03%94.85%95.50%D0.13890.05290.0460
78
FL-09FALSEFALSE7:00 PM98.81%98.53%99.80%D0.01200.01480.0020
79
FL-10FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
80
FL-13FALSEFALSE7:00 PM95.62%99.85%98.40%D0.04480.00150.0161
81
FL-14FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
82
FL-20FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
83
FL-21FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
84
FL-22FALSEFALSE7:00 PM98.65%99.96%100.00%D0.01360.00040.0000
85
FL-23FALSEFALSE7:00 PM99.62%99.97%100.00%D0.00380.00030.0000
86
FL-24FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
87
FL-26FALSETRUE7:00 PM58.02%55.85%74.30%D0.54440.58250.2971
88
FL-27FALSEFALSE7:00 PM83.55%84.82%93.70%D0.17980.16460.0651
89
GA-02FALSEFALSE7:00 PM96.70%99.99%99.90%d0.03360.00010.0010
90
GA-04FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
91
GA-05FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%D0.00000.00000.0000
92
GA-13FALSEFALSE7:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
93
HI-01FALSEFALSE11:59 PM99.78%100.00%100.00%d0.00220.00000.0000
94
HI-02FALSEFALSE11:59 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
95
IL-01FALSEFALSE8:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
96
IL-02FALSEFALSE8:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
97
IL-03FALSEFALSE8:00 PM99.46%99.99%100.00%d0.00540.00010.0000
98
IL-04FALSEFALSE8:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
99
IL-05FALSEFALSE8:00 PM100.00%100.00%100.00%d0.00000.00000.0000
100
IL-06TRUETRUE8:00 PM51.80%48.60%54.20%D0.65770.72150.6125
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