Twitter IPO pricing
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Anonymous$ 10.billion
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Brahim Essaghir$ 13.31 billionExpecting IPO begin 2014 and that Blackrock would want a 30% return on investment (9*1.3+1.5*(1+0.3/4)
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klkl$100m
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Chris Cessna $11.2 billionSame reason as Aswath, but the FB fiasco will force GS to be conservative.
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Ahmet Taşpınar$11.5 billionAv. Price/Sales ttm of FB,LNKD (19.78*$583m)
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Chris Sacca$12 - 15 billionSlight premium over BLK tender offer. Growth is not going so well for this company (user wise), revenue continue to gather pace, risks are mainly around costs (servers) and a large push from sales team to sign larger deals with advertisers ie. signing upfronts. Acquisitions i.e MoPub will also be baked into the IPO price.
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Aswath Damodaran$12.0 billionNice round number. Higher than last transaction price but lower than high end estimates.
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Jack Neele$12.3bnI think the market will be comparing with Facebook & LinkedIn given similarities in operations, terminal margin assumptions. Using a forward EV/Sales (FB + LNKD) of 12.9 on Twitter's estimated forward sales ($950mn) leads to a $12.3bn EV valuation. FB IPO debacle may actually be a boon to investors I think.
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Marc Wright$12.5 billionApprox median of whisper numbers heard from Twitter employees (n=5)
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Dylan Smith$13.5BnGS will go with top of the range $15Bn and discount 10% to mitigate potential prior social media (see FB) reaction. $3Bn above $10.5Bn given market optimism, last of the social media heavyweights and general social media optimism given FB recent performance.
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Ram Rajagopalan$15 billion
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Kelvin Fong$15 billionMarket seems to be in a bit of a heady mood re: tech and social media right now, and GS knows it
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Geoffrey Whittle$16.5BnOn the basis that money is for nothing and this is the next big social media company, and maybe the last big one, investors will wnat to have a balance portfolio of FB and LNKD. GS will want a big profit number too.
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Ashutosh Agrawal$17.5bPeople estimating that by the time of the IPO, the trailing 12 month sales for the company will be $1b. Applying the Facebook + Linkedin EV/Sales gives the estimate
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Andy Lee$19 billionThe last of the major social media companies to go public in the US. Arguably a much more mature company than LinkedIn or Groupon when they IPOed. Actually has a business model for monetization and ideally suited for the mobile platform.
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Jack$20 bnmonkey throwing darts
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Pb16 billionMarket will embrace similar to google - twitter is now a brand name - too many stars love this tool - too many followers - the question is going to be when to sell
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Arnav Gupta$16.5bnRecent run up in FB would come help out twitter. Good Timing on the IPO i should say.
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Marcelo Lavanhini$14.5 bilionjust a guess for now
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Bob C$18bnsee paying-up for Twitter's growth rate of 124% projecting +$1.5bn rev's - or not: Market will decide in 3 days or less, I will decide AFTER 4 10-Q's post. See TSLA IPO, there is always plenty of time to jump in.
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josh franta16bultimately demand judges these things and retail investors will chase this just like they did for fb
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James15 billion
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Faceword21.3bGenerally agree with Aswath's philosphy on pricing, but think he is underestimating the chatter around this IPO, and the effect of the small float (another Facebook lesson)
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Raghu Ram$ 17.5 billionHigh mobile monetization. Widely known and used worldwide. Should have comparable if not better valuation to LNKD and GOOG. Expect some takeover talk between now and IPO that could push valuation higher.
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Anonymous$ 15.0 billion
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Supratim$18 billioncertainly more than $15b , considering the no of users, and the overall state of economy has also improved to give the IPO more acceptability
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Scroll Lock$16.5 billionI think it will be higher than $12b , just because the interest in this IPO is much higher than others. Throwing dices though.
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Eric Brown$11.3 billionMobile monetization is better than it was for FB when they IPO'd. Yet FB memory still lingers. I think they price here, and stock goes up ~25% in first week.
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Jason DaCruz$12BBGiven the recent transactions, overall market appreciation, and general Twitter-awareness, this will be on heck of an IPO. Twitter's product is incredible -- and it hasn't had to change since inception. I do worry about the effectiveness of monetizing yet another website through advertising.
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Tomer Raved$17bnThe market is at all time high and GS will take advantage of it (not to mention the new rumor that more banks are about to join the process and share the pie)
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Amr Hussein Elalfy$10.7bnTaking the last private-equity transaction of $10.5bn upped by 20% for target ROI, then applying a 15% discount to lure minority investors in.
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J. Ellstein$19.9 BillionRun-up on FB/Liinkedin too much for GS to price <$15b. But long-term Ad products have much lower ROI (then FB + Linkedin) so revenue growth will significantly lower future valuation
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Reni George$ 13.5 BIllionIrrational extraction of price by Invest.Bankers during any bull run,Postive rub off of Facebook upward price movement among equity Investors
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PK$12.5 bnIPO game... GS would want to look like they learnt from their mistakes while Twitter should be happy with what they get
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Hrvoje Muhek$ 13.5 BIllionMarket is higher but buzz is not the same as with Facebook and Linkedin IPO. Twitter expressed desire for more conservative pricing.
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Abhimanyu Sanghi$14.0 billionExpecting it to be priced towards the high-end of estimates:
1. Positive performance of FB & LNKD stock in the past 6 months
2. Expecting Twitter will have better revenue growth #s and user engagement metrics compared to other social n/ws.
3. Given secular trends, a good time to give a high return (~40%) to investors in pre-IPO round
4. Will still leave room for a $2-4 billion pop
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Robert$12.0 billionits a fair assessment
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Ishfaque $12.0 billion.Priced at 12B is very reasonable allowing for a decent pop in the 1st trading day. Based on P/S multiples of Facebook, Zynga, LinkedIn, Groupon, Yelp.
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Hashim Ali$13BIt was announced today that it was going to be at $15B but there was news that Twitter is taking out an additional $1B in debt financing pre-IPO, which I believe will lead GS to drop the valuation by a good $2B in order to sustain a good IPO
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Jorge Gutiérrez$ 11.5 BnI would derive IPO's price based on Blackrock expected return (as Brahim put it, 30%) and then I'd use an haircut of 15% to get final IPO price: IPO price pre haircut: (9*(1+0.3))+(1.5(1+(0.3/4)) = $ 13.5 Bn IPO final price (using a 15% discount to booster secondary sales) = 13.5 * 0.85 = 11.5
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bbr391$ 13.5 BnSeveral reasons make me head for a slightly higher valuation .
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Luis$16 billion
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Gary Ang$12.999 billion
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Will Allen$25BGreed - Goldman Sachs is top left. New issue activity has been weak. Comparable transactions irrelevant - Instagram sold for $1B (the last funding round valued at $500M), Groupon IPO valued company at $13B with 80M users, Zynga IPO valued company at $9B with 220M users, Skype sold for $8.5B with 125M users. DST one of the largest shareholders (former GS guys) will be pushing for high valuation. Will mark the top of the market.
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Steve $14BnI would go higher but GS will get slammed if they botch this one
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Andre Santoro$9.5bnTwitter should be priced at a discount to FB EV/Sales, thanks to less promising prospects for growth. If FB is traded at 18x EV/Sales, Twitter should be priced in with a 10% discount, which would yield a 16.2x EV/Sales, giving us $9.5bn of EV
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Azimuddin$11.5 billionWell just my guess from what i can make sense from the so called experts :)
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Marcos Ataya
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