GiveWell's room for more funding analysis for AMF [2018] (public)
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Scope of analysisNotes
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Unit of analysis (full organization or program of a larger organization)AMF
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Analysis 'as of' dateAugust 13, 2018
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Funds on handAmountNotes
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Funds in the bank for AMF as of August 13, 2018$84,131,075
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Of funds in the bank for AMF, amount committed to future activities$19,122,136
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Of funds in the bank for AMF, funds held in reserve$0Funds in reserve are funds that are not expected to be spent unless there is a major revenue shortfall
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Uncommitted, unreserved funds in the bank$65,008,939Calculation
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Projected revenueValue from same period in previous yearAre there any reasons why last year's revenue is not a reasonable projection for next year (ignoring variation in GiveWell-influenced funding)?Projection (before GiveWell's 2018 recommendation)Notes
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Total annual revenue for AMF 2018 fiscal year$33,923,124Not that we are aware of-This is for AMF's 2018 fiscal year, which runs from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018.
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Total GiveWell-influenced funding that reached the organization in AMF's 2018 fiscal year$26,525,124--From GiveWell's internal donation records. Note that this is the amount of GiveWell-influenced funding that reached AMF between February 1, 2017 and January 31, 2018. This includes the amount that GiveWell granted to AMF in this period, donations made to AMF during this period by donors who cited GiveWell as the reason for giving, and a $2.5 million grant from Good Ventures.
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Projected revenue from donors who are not influenced by GiveWell's research in AMF's 2018 fiscal year$7,398,000-$1,479,600Based on data used in our 2017 report on donations due to GiveWell's research, we estimated that 80% of donations that AMF was able to attribute to a source were attributed to GiveWell (http://files.givewell.org/files/metrics/GiveWell_Metrics_Report_2017.pdf, see footnote 4 on page 3). Here we have roughly assumed that 80% of unattributed donations were in fact due to GiveWell's research.
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Funding held by GiveWell as of the end of AMF's 2018 fiscal year--$4,444,874From GiveWell's internal donation records. This also includes a planned grant from the Global Health and Development EA Fund (https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/global-development). This fund is not formally affiliated with GiveWell, but is managed by Elie Hassenfeld, Co-Founder and Executive Director of GiveWell. In late August 2018, Elie recommended that 70% of available funding in the Global Health and Development Fund be donated to AMF. As of August 31, 2018, the fund contained roughly $1,855,000.
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Annual projected revenue from donors who give based on GiveWell's top charity list, but do not follow our recommendation for marginal funding--$2,000,000GiveWell maintains both a list of all top charities that meet our criteria and a recommendation for which charity or charities to give to to maximize the impact of additional donations, given cost-effectiveness of remaining funding gaps.

This is difficult to estimate because AMF has been a part of our recommendation for additional donations in recent years.
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Bottom line
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'Baseline' funding pot for AMF$72,933,413
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Revenue projection for FY 2020$1,479,600
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Revenue projection for FY 2021$1,479,600
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Total projected additional funding through FY 2021$10,883,674
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