A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
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1 | Analysis of LFD results in England from government api at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Making use of change on 2021-04-09 which reveals the number of PCR-negative retests of LFD tests: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Edited 2021-04-19 to slightly adjust the formula in column J (inferred number of PCR-negative retests). Now it is the old minus the new version of the metrics newCasesLFDConfirmedPCRBySpecimenDate+newCasesLFDOnlyBySpecimenDate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Observations: (i) the FPR has improved over the months, so recent FPR is lower than old FPR, (ii) the PPV has still decreased a bit (to 82.2%), presumably because prevalence has decreased more than FPR has improved | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Note: Col D (old style) = PCR-retest-negatives + non-PCR-retest; Col H (new style) = non-PCR-retest only | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Note: slight discrepancies (e.g. 2021-03-24) presumably due to slight retrospective increase of LFD test counts. The last few days are not reliable because test results are still being added. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Note: the number removed (8024, cell J11) doesn't exactly match the 8008 mentioned in the "what's new" note. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | API query to obtain columns B-D | API query to obtain columns F-H | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Cols B-D retrieved from api on 2021-04-08 (pre change) | Cols F-H retrieved from api on 2021-04-09 (post change) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | date | newLFDTests | newCasesLFDConfirmedPCRBySpecimenDate | newCasesLFDOnlyBySpecimenDate | newLFDTests | newCasesLFDConfirmedPCRBySpecimenDate | newCasesLFDOnlyBySpecimenDate | Inferred number of PCR-negative retests (number removed on 2021-04-09) | PPV (=TP/(TP+FP)) of those retested, assuming no PCR false negatives (percentage) | FPR lower bound assuming no PCR false negatives (per 10,000) | FPR estimate assuming PCR-retests are representative and no PCR false negatives (per 10,000) | FPR upper bound assuming all non-PCR-retests would have been PCR-negative and no PCR false negatives (per 10,000) | School status | |||||||||||||
12 | TOTAL | 47565220 | 66373 | 57570 | 47676283 | 66693 | 49226 | 8024 | 89.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||
13 | 4 weeks up to 4 April | 26143836 | 13900 | 16999 | 26144206 | 13935 | 13937 | 3027 | 82.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||
14 | 2021-04-08 | 607724 | 9 | 504 | THU | |||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 2021-04-07 | 737706 | 7 | 624 | 847738 | 154 | 527 | -50 | 148.1 | -0.6 | -3.6 | 7.4 | WED | |||||||||||||
16 | 2021-04-06 | 481865 | 125 | 510 | 482449 | 265 | 286 | 84 | 75.9 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 10.6 | TUE | |||||||||||||
17 | 2021-04-05 | 692576 | 277 | 386 | 692647 | 311 | 254 | 98 | 76.0 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 5.6 | MON | Easter BH | ||||||||||||
18 | 2021-04-04 | 780810 | 340 | 360 | 780901 | 371 | 264 | 65 | 85.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4.6 | SUN | Easter | ||||||||||||
19 | 2021-04-03 | 218727 | 291 | 199 | 218737 | 299 | 148 | 43 | 87.4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 9.1 | SAT | |||||||||||||
20 | 2021-04-02 | 305553 | 272 | 221 | 305597 | 275 | 162 | 56 | 83.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 7.2 | FRI | Good Friday | ||||||||||||
21 | 2021-04-01 | 713062 | 388 | 406 | 713149 | 391 | 287 | 116 | 77.1 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 5.7 | THU | |||||||||||||
22 | 2021-03-31 | 1079806 | 587 | 540 | 1079867 | 588 | 414 | 125 | 82.5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.0 | WED | Some schools open | ||||||||||||
23 | 2021-03-30 | 300478 | 289 | 267 | 300482 | 290 | 244 | 22 | 92.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 8.9 | TUE | Some schools open | ||||||||||||
24 | 2021-03-29 | 309965 | 205 | 250 | 309968 | 203 | 229 | 23 | 89.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 8.1 | MON | Some schools open | ||||||||||||
25 | 2021-03-28 | 2153622 | 1164 | 1356 | 2153622 | 1162 | 1182 | 176 | 86.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 6.3 | SUN | |||||||||||||
26 | 2021-03-27 | 205151 | 442 | 271 | 205151 | 441 | 269 | 3 | 99.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 13.2 | SAT | |||||||||||||
27 | 2021-03-26 | 454424 | 449 | 457 | 454424 | 449 | 391 | 66 | 87.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 10.1 | FRI | Schools open | ||||||||||||
28 | 2021-03-25 | 974246 | 588 | 715 | 974247 | 588 | 693 | 22 | 96.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 7.3 | THU | Schools open | ||||||||||||
29 | 2021-03-24 | 1569547 | 817 | 1042 | 1569556 | 815 | 1045 | -1 | 100.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | WED | Schools open | ||||||||||||
30 | 2021-03-23 | 568365 | 579 | 608 | 568366 | 578 | 539 | 70 | 89.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 10.7 | TUE | Schools open | ||||||||||||
31 | 2021-03-22 | 1071856 | 734 | 940 | 1071911 | 733 | 688 | 253 | 74.3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 8.8 | MON | Schools open | ||||||||||||
32 | 2021-03-21 | 1808390 | 1044 | 1216 | 1808390 | 1044 | 955 | 261 | 80.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 6.7 | SUN | |||||||||||||
33 | 2021-03-20 | 207277 | 437 | 287 | 207277 | 437 | 233 | 54 | 89.0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 13.8 | SAT | |||||||||||||
34 | 2021-03-19 | 646569 | 486 | 460 | 646569 | 484 | 348 | 114 | 80.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 7.1 | FRI | Schools open | ||||||||||||
35 | 2021-03-18 | 1194141 | 515 | 700 | 1194141 | 515 | 544 | 156 | 76.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 5.9 | THU | Schools open | ||||||||||||
36 | 2021-03-17 | 1381495 | 643 | 819 | 1381495 | 642 | 672 | 148 | 81.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.9 | WED | Schools open | ||||||||||||
37 | 2021-03-16 | 1081852 | 480 | 651 | 1081852 | 480 | 503 | 148 | 76.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 6.0 | TUE | Schools open | ||||||||||||
38 | 2021-03-15 | 1515597 | 554 | 915 | 1515598 | 554 | 719 | 196 | 73.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 6.0 | MON | Schools open | ||||||||||||
39 | 2021-03-14 | 837467 | 498 | 520 | 837468 | 498 | 430 | 90 | 84.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 6.2 | SUN | |||||||||||||
40 | 2021-03-13 | 181924 | 290 | 242 | 181924 | 290 | 213 | 29 | 90.9 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 13.3 | SAT | |||||||||||||
41 | 2021-03-12 | 1195637 | 344 | 638 | 1195637 | 344 | 516 | 122 | 73.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 5.3 | FRI | Schools open | ||||||||||||
42 | 2021-03-11 | 1393730 | 337 | 661 | 1393730 | 337 | 507 | 154 | 68.6 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.7 | THU | Schools open | ||||||||||||
43 | 2021-03-10 | 1294857 | 361 | 720 | 1294857 | 361 | 567 | 153 | 70.2 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | WED | Schools open | ||||||||||||
44 | 2021-03-09 | 1197334 | 347 | 701 | 1197334 | 347 | 549 | 152 | 69.5 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 5.9 | TUE | Schools open | ||||||||||||
45 | 2021-03-08 | 1501954 | 419 | 837 | 1501956 | 419 | 626 | 211 | 66.5 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 5.6 | MON | Schools open | ||||||||||||
46 | 2021-03-07 | 660576 | 272 | 387 | 660578 | 272 | 319 | 68 | 80.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.9 | SUN | |||||||||||||
47 | 2021-03-06 | 183443 | 184 | 248 | 183443 | 184 | 205 | 43 | 81.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 13.5 | SAT | |||||||||||||
48 | 2021-03-05 | 704341 | 190 | 475 | 704341 | 190 | 363 | 112 | 62.9 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 6.7 | FRI | |||||||||||||
49 | 2021-03-04 | 750098 | 185 | 545 | 750099 | 185 | 468 | 77 | 70.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 7.3 | THU | |||||||||||||
50 | 2021-03-03 | 568556 | 243 | 451 | 568557 | 243 | 396 | 55 | 81.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 7.9 | WED | |||||||||||||
51 | 2021-03-02 | 402973 | 222 | 415 | 402973 | 222 | 382 | 33 | 87.1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 10.3 | TUE | |||||||||||||
52 | 2021-03-01 | 584099 | 254 | 479 | 584099 | 254 | 409 | 70 | 78.4 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 8.2 | MON | |||||||||||||
53 | 2021-02-28 | 357337 | 186 | 257 | 357337 | 186 | 223 | 34 | 84.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 7.2 | SUN | |||||||||||||
54 | 2021-02-27 | 112713 | 97 | 193 | 112713 | 97 | 173 | 20 | 82.9 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 17.1 | SAT | |||||||||||||
55 | 2021-02-26 | 315905 | 151 | 358 | 315905 | 151 | 318 | 40 | 79.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 11.3 | FRI | |||||||||||||
56 | 2021-02-25 | 427979 | 207 | 442 | 427979 | 207 | 389 | 53 | 79.6 | 1.2 | 3.1 | 10.3 | THU | |||||||||||||
57 | 2021-02-24 | 428599 | 236 | 452 | 428599 | 236 | 403 | 49 | 82.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 10.5 | WED | |||||||||||||
58 | 2021-02-23 | 315209 | 237 | 424 | 315209 | 237 | 360 | 64 | 78.7 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 13.5 | TUE | |||||||||||||
59 | 2021-02-22 | 521109 | 340 | 662 | 521109 | 340 | 560 | 102 | 76.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 12.7 | MON | |||||||||||||
60 | 2021-02-21 | 371060 | 300 | 338 | 371060 | 300 | 294 | 44 | 87.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 9.1 | SUN | |||||||||||||
61 | 2021-02-20 | 116800 | 139 | 319 | 116800 | 139 | 289 | 30 | 82.2 | 2.6 | 7.0 | 27.3 | SAT | |||||||||||||
62 | 2021-02-19 | 225179 | 230 | 432 | 225179 | 230 | 376 | 56 | 80.4 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 19.2 | FRI | |||||||||||||
63 | 2021-02-18 | 243950 | 269 | 459 | 243950 | 269 | 417 | 42 | 86.5 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 18.8 | THU | |||||||||||||
64 | 2021-02-17 | 240196 | 330 | 452 | 240196 | 330 | 405 | 47 | 87.5 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 18.8 | WED | |||||||||||||
65 | 2021-02-16 | 209845 | 292 | 504 | 209845 | 292 | 458 | 46 | 86.4 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 24.0 | TUE | |||||||||||||
66 | 2021-02-15 | 287496 | 390 | 559 | 287496 | 390 | 487 | 72 | 84.4 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 19.4 | MON | |||||||||||||
67 | 2021-02-14 | 208408 | 296 | 291 | 208408 | 296 | 258 | 33 | 90.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 14.0 | SUN | |||||||||||||
68 | 2021-02-13 | 110581 | 164 | 284 | 110581 | 164 | 255 | 29 | 85.0 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 25.7 | SAT | |||||||||||||
69 | 2021-02-12 | 293770 | 283 | 433 | 293770 | 283 | 388 | 45 | 86.3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 14.7 | FRI | |||||||||||||
70 | 2021-02-11 | 400501 | 327 | 504 | 400501 | 327 | 453 | 51 | 86.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 12.6 | THU | |||||||||||||
71 | 2021-02-10 | 424985 | 453 | 553 | 424985 | 453 | 490 | 63 | 87.8 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 13.0 | WED | |||||||||||||
72 | 2021-02-09 | 291808 | 381 | 526 | 291808 | 381 | 466 | 60 | 86.4 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 18.0 | TUE | |||||||||||||
73 | 2021-02-08 | 464916 | 517 | 691 | 464916 | 517 | 582 | 109 | 82.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 14.9 | MON | |||||||||||||
74 | 2021-02-07 | 363781 | 509 | 411 | 363781 | 509 | 343 | 68 | 88.2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 11.3 | SUN | |||||||||||||
75 | 2021-02-06 | 121365 | 249 | 355 | 121365 | 249 | 322 | 33 | 88.3 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 29.3 | SAT | |||||||||||||
76 | 2021-02-05 | 310480 | 386 | 583 | 310480 | 386 | 517 | 66 | 85.4 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 18.8 | FRI | |||||||||||||
77 | 2021-02-04 | 418258 | 461 | 702 | 418258 | 461 | 624 | 78 | 85.5 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 16.8 | THU | |||||||||||||
78 | 2021-02-03 | 454419 | 596 | 760 | 454419 | 596 | 682 | 78 | 88.4 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 16.7 | WED | |||||||||||||
79 | 2021-02-02 | 307538 | 543 | 675 | 307538 | 543 | 605 | 70 | 88.6 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 21.9 | TUE | |||||||||||||
80 | 2021-02-01 | 478735 | 766 | 831 | 478735 | 766 | 736 | 95 | 89.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 17.4 | MON | |||||||||||||
81 | 2021-01-31 | 357192 | 577 | 536 | 357192 | 577 | 462 | 74 | 88.6 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 15.0 | SUN | |||||||||||||
82 | 2021-01-30 | 114286 | 329 | 452 | 114286 | 329 | 420 | 32 | 91.1 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 39.5 | SAT | |||||||||||||
83 | 2021-01-29 | 288216 | 468 | 662 | 288216 | 468 | 604 | 58 | 89.0 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 23.0 | FRI | |||||||||||||
84 | 2021-01-28 | 366362 | 595 | 804 | 366362 | 595 | 730 | 74 | 88.9 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 21.9 | THU | |||||||||||||
85 | 2021-01-27 | 379471 | 632 | 752 | 379471 | 632 | 669 | 83 | 88.4 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 19.8 | WED | |||||||||||||
86 | 2021-01-26 | 284368 | 912 | 463 | 284368 | 912 | 380 | 83 | 91.7 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 16.3 | TUE | |||||||||||||
87 | 2021-01-25 | 367632 | 1193 | 559 | 367632 | 1193 | 465 | 94 | 92.7 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 15.2 | MON | |||||||||||||
88 | 2021-01-24 | 167570 | 669 | 287 | 167570 | 669 | 244 | 43 | 94.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 17.1 | SUN | |||||||||||||
89 | 2021-01-23 | 101852 | 641 | 343 | 101852 | 641 | 297 | 46 | 93.3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 33.7 | SAT | |||||||||||||
90 | 2021-01-22 | 237051 | 922 | 449 | 237051 | 922 | 368 | 81 | 91.9 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 18.9 | FRI | |||||||||||||
91 | 2021-01-21 | 240292 | 977 | 472 | 240292 | 977 | 411 | 61 | 94.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 19.6 | THU | |||||||||||||
92 | 2021-01-20 | 220808 | 1098 | 512 | 220808 | 1098 | 438 | 74 | 93.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 23.2 | WED | |||||||||||||
93 | 2021-01-19 | 234925 | 1309 | 542 | 234925 | 1309 | 465 | 77 | 94.4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 23.1 | TUE | |||||||||||||
94 | 2021-01-18 | 311810 | 1618 | 593 | 311810 | 1618 | 516 | 77 | 95.5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 19.0 | MON | |||||||||||||
95 | 2021-01-17 | 109069 | 905 | 351 | 109069 | 905 | 312 | 39 | 95.9 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 32.2 | SUN | |||||||||||||
96 | 2021-01-16 | 87580 | 878 | 368 | 87580 | 878 | 334 | 34 | 96.3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 42.0 | SAT | |||||||||||||
97 | 2021-01-15 | 185123 | 1134 | 531 | 185123 | 1134 | 482 | 49 | 95.9 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 28.7 | FRI | |||||||||||||
98 | 2021-01-14 | 177612 | 1199 | 549 | 177612 | 1199 | 485 | 64 | 94.9 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 30.9 | THU | |||||||||||||
99 | 2021-01-13 | 164664 | 1322 | 566 | 164664 | 1322 | 505 | 61 | 95.6 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 34.4 | WED | |||||||||||||
100 | 2021-01-12 | 175299 | 1442 | 604 | 175299 | 1442 | 530 | 74 | 95.1 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 34.5 | TUE |