FRSH Valuation
Comments
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
Comment only
 
 
Still loading...
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Papa Murphy's (FRSH) Valuation
2
4/25/2014
3
Base123456789101112131415Terminal Year
4
Revenue Growth Rate
10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.43%10.00%10%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%3%
5
Revenues$80,495$88,891$98,162$108,400$119,706$132,192$145,979$161,205$178,019$196,586$216,245$237,869$261,656$287,822$316,604$348,264$357,632
6
Operating Margin16.66%16.33%16.16%16.08%16.04%16.02%16.01%16.01%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%16.00%
7
EBIT$13,410$14,516$15,868$17,433$19,202$21,178$23,372$25,801$28,488$31,456$34,601$38,060$41,865$46,052$50,657$55,722$57,221
8
Taxes$2,923$3,310$5,554$6,102$6,721$7,412$8,180$9,030$9,971$11,010$12,110$13,321$14,653$16,118$17,730$19,503$20,027
9
EBIT(1-t)$10,486$11,205$10,314$11,332$12,482$13,766$15,192$16,771$18,517$20,447$22,490$24,739$27,212$29,934$32,927$36,220$37,194
10
"+Depreciation$6,973$7,700$8,503$9,390$10,370$11,451$12,646$13,910$15,301$16,831$18,515$20,366$22,403$23,005$23,624$24,260$24,912
11
- Capital Expenditures
$11,575$9,911$10,945$12,086$13,347$14,739$16,276$17,920$19,729$21,721$23,691$26,060$28,666$29,895$31,203$32,597$31,690
12
- Chg WC$1,137$588$649$717$791$874$965$1,066$1,177$1,300$1,376$1,514$1,665$1,832$2,015$2,216$9,897
13
FCFF$4,747$8,406$7,224$7,919$8,713$9,604$10,596$11,695$12,912$14,257$15,937$17,531$19,284$21,212$23,333$25,666$20,519
14
NOL$5,057$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0
15
Terminal Value$751,527
16
17
Cost of Capital Calculations
18
Tax Rate21.80%22.81%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%35.00%
19
Debt Ratio36.56%36.56%36.56%36.56%36.56%36.56%38.41%38.61%38.87%39.20%39.63%40.25%41.17%42.71%45.78%55.00%55.00%
20
Beta1.691.691.691.691.691.691.551.421.281.141111111
21
Cost of Equity12.47%12.47%12.47%12.47%12.47%12.47%11.67%10.87%10.07%9.27%8.47%8.47%8.47%8.47%8.47%8.47%8.47%
22
Cost of Debt6.75%6.75%6.75%6.75%6.75%6.75%6.53%6.50%6.47%6.43%6.38%6.30%6.19%6.00%5.63%4.50%4.50%
23
After-tax cost of debt
5.28%5.21%4.39%4.39%4.39%4.39%4.24%4.23%4.20%4.18%4.14%4.10%4.02%3.90%3.66%2.93%2.93%
24
Cost of Capital9.84%9.82%9.52%9.52%9.52%9.52%8.82%8.31%7.79%7.27%6.76%6.71%6.64%6.52%6.27%5.42%5.42%
25
26
Computed Variables (These are measures of how efficiently your firm is investing over time)
27
Total Capital Invested
$201,203.00$204,002$207,092$210,505$214,273$218,435$223,031$228,106$233,711$239,900$246,453$253,661$261,590$270,312$279,906$290,459$307,135
28
Reinvestment Rate54.73%24.98%29.96%30.12%30.19%30.23%31.69%31.86%32.06%32.32%32.67%33.15%33.88%35.10%37.53%44.83%44.83%
29
Increase in Revenue/Increase in Capital
3333333333333332.33
30
Return on Capital5.57%5.06%5.47%5.93%6.42%6.95%7.52%8.12%8.75%9.37%10.04%10.73%11.44%12.18%12.94%6.00%
31
32
Present Value Calculations
33
Cumulative WACC1.0981.2031.3171.4421.581.7191.8622.0072.1532.2982.4522.6152.7862.963.1213.29
34
Present Value of FCFF
$7,655$6,006$6,012$6,040$6,079$6,164$6,282$6,434$6,623$6,934$7,148$7,373$7,614$7,882$8,224$6,237
35
Present Value of Terminal Value
$240,813
36
37
Valuation
38
PV of FCFF during high growth phase =$108,708
39
PV of Terminal Value =$240,813
40
Value of Operating Assets of the firm =$349,521
41
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets=$3,705.00
42
Value of Firm =$353,226
43
- Value of Outstanding Debt =$117,335
44
Value of Equity =$235,891
45
- Value of Equity Options =$4,132
46
Value of Equity in Common Stock =$231,759Weight
47
Value of Equity per share =$13.660.45$6.15Note: This valuation is based on my own assumptions (which may be incorrect) and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the selected security.
48
49
Status Quo Intrinstic Value =
4.370.25$1.09
50
(Current return on capital is less than cost of capital)
51
Current P/S regression =
20.120.2$4.02
52
(4.24x sales, r-squared = .81, small incomplete sample)
53
IPO Pricing =110.1$1.10
54
Current Price Estimate =
12.36
55
Papa Murphy's SEC Filings
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...
 
 
 
Valuation
Disclaimer