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1 | Marin Trolley Abatement Cost Estimate | ||||||||

2 | Input cells in yellow. This is a DRAFT and a rough estimate using realistic assumptions. Feedback most welcome. | ||||||||

3 | |||||||||

4 | Car | Hybrid Bus | Trolley | Analysis | |||||

5 | Actual mpg | 23.6 | Cars based on 2013 actual avg mpg for new cars (EPA 2013) | To be a valid project the cost of abating a metric ton of CO2 should be under $100. This is achieved by switching car drivers driving higher emission cars to the lower emission trolley. | |||||

6 | Improvement per year | 0.9 | |||||||

7 | #Years in the future | 17 | 2 years to build, 15 year midpoint of 30 year project lifespan | ||||||

8 | Mpg at time in the future | 38.9 | Note: 54.5mpg by 2025 legislation from Whitehouse/EPA may make this higher | Conclusion | |||||

9 | Marin adjustment | 5% | 5% is an estimate. The SF metropolitan region sells 4x as many hybrids as the avg for all metro regions | Thee a San Anselmo to San Rafael trolley is competing with ever more fuel efficient cars, over 30 years it would save only 460 metric tons of CO2 at a cost of approximately $293,271 per ton. | |||||

10 | Advertised MPG (or MPGe) | 5 | 10 | Source: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/fceb_status_2012.pdf | |||||

11 | Discount for realistic mpg | 30% | 0 | 0 | mpg are never as advertised | ||||

12 | Actual mpg | 28.59 | 5 | 10 | |||||

13 | Car occupancy assumed | To or From Work | Uses US DOT figures | ||||||

14 | Avg #Passengers per vehicle | 1.13 | 18.3 | 18.3 | Gives trolley max benefit of the doub,t assumes all trips are commutes. | ||||

15 | %Existing transit riders | 30% | 30% | Some trolley riders may already use transit & should be removed from consideration | |||||

16 | Deadhead miles | 0% | 20% | 25% | Getting trolleys to and from depot to start point. | ||||

17 | |||||||||

18 | Car | Hybrid Bus | Trolley | ||||||

19 | Passenger mpg | 32.3 | 73.2 | 137.3 | Higher is better | ||||

20 | Incremental mpg (over Cars) | 0.0 | 40.9 | 105 | |||||

21 | CO2 Emissions | 174 | 85 | 45 | grams per passenger mile | ||||

22 | |||||||||

23 | #Trips (or equivalent) | 16.19 | 18.3 | 18.3 | |||||

24 | #Roundtrips | 8 | 8 | 8 | In the above chart lower is better | ||||

25 | Trips per day per person | 2 | 2 | 2 | For a project to be cost effective at lowering emissions the bar should be lower (less than) the orange cost effective bar | ||||

26 | Distance per trip (average) | 2 | 2 | 2 | San Anselmo to San Rfl is 2.6ml, not all will travel the full distance | ||||

27 | Miles per day travelled | 518.23 | 585.6 | 585.6 | |||||

28 | Miles per year travelled | 124,375 | 140,544 | 140,544 | Assumes commuting 48 wks/year | ||||

29 | Miles in 30 years travelled | 3,731,257 | 4,216,320 | 4,216,320 | |||||

30 | Total emissions CO2 over 30 years | 650.87 | 357.28 | 190.55 | metric tons | ||||

31 | CO2 emissions abated vs. cars | 293.60 | 460.33 | metric tons | |||||

32 | Cost to taxpayer | $11,600,000 | $135,000,000 | Assumes 4 hybrid buses capital cost $2m + driver salaries x 30 years. Trolley cost source: http://thegreatermarin.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/marin-trolley-should-start-with-goals/ | |||||

33 | Result | Hybrid Bus | Trolley | Cost-Effective Threshold | |||||

34 | Cost per ton reduced CO2 emissions | $39,510 | $293,271 | $100 |

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