Marin Trolley Abatement Cost
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Marin Trolley Abatement Cost Estimate
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Input cells in yellow. This is a DRAFT and a rough estimate using realistic assumptions. Feedback most welcome.
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CarHybrid BusTrolleyAnalysis
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Actual mpg23.6Cars based on 2013 actual avg mpg for new cars (EPA 2013)To be a valid project the cost of abating a metric ton of CO2 should be under $100. This is achieved by switching car drivers driving higher emission cars to the lower emission trolley.
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Improvement per year0.9
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#Years in the future172 years to build, 15 year midpoint of 30 year project lifespan
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Mpg at time in the future38.9Note: 54.5mpg by 2025 legislation from Whitehouse/EPA may make this higherConclusion
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Marin adjustment5%5% is an estimate. The SF metropolitan region sells 4x as many hybrids as the avg for all metro regionsThee a San Anselmo to San Rafael trolley is competing with ever more fuel efficient cars, over 30 years it would save only 460 metric tons of CO2 at a cost of approximately $293,271 per ton.
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Advertised MPG (or MPGe)510Source: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/fceb_status_2012.pdf
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Discount for realistic mpg30%00mpg are never as advertised
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Actual mpg28.59510
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Car occupancy assumedTo or From WorkUses US DOT figures
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Avg #Passengers per vehicle1.1318.318.3Gives trolley max benefit of the doub,t assumes all trips are commutes.
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%Existing transit riders30%30%Some trolley riders may already use transit & should be removed from consideration
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Deadhead miles0%20%25%Getting trolleys to and from depot to start point.
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CarHybrid BusTrolley
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Passenger mpg32.373.2137.3Higher is better
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Incremental mpg (over Cars)0.040.9105
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CO2 Emissions1748545grams per passenger mile
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#Trips (or equivalent)16.1918.318.3
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#Roundtrips888In the above chart lower is better
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Trips per day per person222For a project to be cost effective at lowering emissions the bar should be lower (less than) the orange cost effective bar
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Distance per trip (average)222San Anselmo to San Rfl is 2.6ml, not all will travel the full distance
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Miles per day travelled518.23585.6585.6
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Miles per year travelled124,375140,544140,544Assumes commuting 48 wks/year
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Miles in 30 years travelled3,731,2574,216,3204,216,320
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Total emissions CO2 over 30 years650.87357.28190.55metric tons
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CO2 emissions abated vs. cars293.60460.33metric tons
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Cost to taxpayer$11,600,000$135,000,000Assumes 4 hybrid buses capital cost $2m + driver salaries x 30 years. Trolley cost source: http://thegreatermarin.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/marin-trolley-should-start-with-goals/
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ResultHybrid BusTrolleyCost-Effective Threshold
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Cost per ton reduced CO2 emissions$39,510$293,271$100
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