GS.xlsx

	D	E	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	Y	Z
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5							This years earnings include a $3.4B write down from the 1MDB mess. They'd have earned $12B otherwise
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7			2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026				2030		Rationale
8	Revenues
9		Investment Banking	6.2	7.4	7.9	6.8	9.1	14.2	7.4	6.2	7.7	9.3					11		Average of the last 10 years, adjusted up a little bit for inflation
10		Investment Management	5.4	5.8	6.5	6.2	6.9	8.1	9	9.5	10.6	11.7	12.5	13.4	14.3	15.3	16.4	7%	Likely grows at 7% compounded (inline with a 60/40 portfolio over last 40 yrs)
11		Commissions and Fees	3.2	3.1	3.2	3	3.5	3.6	4	3.8	4.1	4					4		Flat
12		Market Making	9.9	7.7	9.5	10.2	15.5	15.4	18.6	18.2	18.4	18					21		Up very marginally just on volume
13		Other Principal Transactions	3.4	5.9	5.8	6.1	4.7	11.7	0.6	2.1	4.6	1.6					0		They're exiting this fully
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15	Total Non Interest Revenues		28.1	29.9	32.9	32.3	39.7	53	39.6	39.8	45.4	44.6					52.4
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17		Interest Income	9.7	13.1	19.7	21.7	13.7	12.1	29	68.5	81.4	80.4
18		Interest Expense	7.1	10.2	15.9	17.4	8.9	5.7	21.3	62.2	73.3	66.8
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20	Net Interest Income		2.6	2.9	3.8	4.3	4.8	6.4	7.7	6.3	8.1	13.6					10		This is a little harder given the dependency on rates, but I take the five year average ($8B) and add a little for asset growth
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22	Total Net Revenues		30.7	32.8	36.7	36.6	44.5	59.4	47.3	46.1	53.5	58.2					62.4
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24	Provision for Credit Losses		0.2	0.7	0.7	1.1	3.1	0.4	2.7	1	1.3	-1					0		This should be very low given they've fully exited the card business
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26	Operating Expenses
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28		Comp	11.4	11.6	12.3	12.4	13.3	17.7	15.1	15.5	16.7	18.9	19.5	20.1	20.7	21.3	21.9	3%	Probably rises 3% a year if revenue is barely growing
29		Transaction based	2.8	2.9	3.2	3.5	4.1	4.7	5.3	5.7	6.7	8					9		A little harder to call, but I'd assume flattish
30		Market dev	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.7					0.7		Flat
31		Comms and Tech	0.8	0.9	1	1.2	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9	2	2.2					3		Likely goes up to around 3B in 5 years given the trajectory. Hard to see less tech spending
32		D&A	1	1.2	1.3	1.7	1.9	2	2.5	1.9	2.4	2.2					2		This could stay flat as the focus on core businesses
33		Occupancy	0.8	0.7	0.8	1	1	1	1	1.1	1	1					1.2		Up marginally as more return to work takes hold
34		Professional Services	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.6	1.9	1.6	1.7	1.8					2		Up marginally given focus on costs
35		Other	1.9	1.9	2.8	3	5.6	2.7	2.7	3.2	2.7	2.9					3		Assume this is about flat
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37	Total Operating Expenses		20.3	21	23.3	24.8	28.9	31.9	31.1	31.5	33.8	37.7					42.8
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39	Pre tax earnings		10.2	11.1	12.7	10.7	12.5	27.1	13.5	13.6	18.4	21.5					19.6
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41	Taxes		2.9	6.8	2	2.1	3	5.4	2.2	2.2	4.1	4.7					3.9	20%	Expected tax rate
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43	Net Income		7.3	4.3	10.7	8.6	9.5	21.7	11.3	11.4	14.3	16.8					15.7
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45	Pref share dividends		0.3	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.9					0.9
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47	NI to Common		7	3.7	10.1	8	9	21.2	10.8	10.8	13.5	15.9					14.8
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49	Dividends		1.7	1.8	1.8	2.1	2.3	2.7	3.7	4.2	4.5
50	Common dividends		1.4	1.2	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.2	3.2	3.6	3.7	-0.9
51	Buybacks		6.1	6.8	3.3	5.3	1.9	5.2	3.5	5.8	8
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54	Diluted Shares Out		435	409	390	376	360	356	358	346	334	315	313
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56	Average share price		168	233	233	204	207	364	334	335	468	683	960
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58	Market Cap		73	95	91	77	75	130	119	116	156	215	300
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60	earnings yield on common		10%	4%	11%	10%	12%	16%	9%	9%	9%	7%	5%
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