Risk Events Tracker - July 2017
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Risk EventSectorJanFebMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugAprilMayJuneJuly
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USD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Economy-0.20.4-0.2-0.40.30.2Aug 25BearishNeutralBearishBearish
3
USDDurable Goods Orders m/mEconomy1.81.70.7-0.7-0.86.5Aug 25BearishBullishBearishBullish
4
USDISM - Manufacturing PricesEconomy65.5696870.5-60.555.0Aug 01BullishBullishBearishBearish
5
USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Labour Market153246298263177253158Aug 02BullishNeutralBullishBearish
6
USD
ISM - Non - Manufacturing PMI
Economy57.256.557.655.257.556.957.4Aug 03BearishBullishNeutralBullish
7
USDTrade Balance - USDEconomy-45.2B-44.3B-48.5B-43.7B-45.3B-46.5B-Aug 04BullishBearishBearish
8
USDFOMC Meeting MinutesMarket
Dowish
Hawkish
Hawkish
HawkishDowishHawkishHawkishAug 16NeutralBearishBullishNeutral
9
USDCPI Core MoMInflation0.2%0.3%0.2%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Aug 11BearishBearishBearishBearish
10
USDCPI (YoY)Inflation2.1%2.5%2.7%2.4%2.2%1.9%1.6%Aug 11BearishBearishBearishBearish
11
USDHousing Starts
Housing Market
1.23M1.25M1.29M1.22M1.17M1.12M1.22MAug 16BearishBearishBearish 
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USDBuilding Permits
Housing Market
1.21M1.29M1.21M1.26M1.23M1.17M1.25MAug 16BullishBearishBearishBullish
13
USDNFP -PayrollLabour Market156K227K235K79K174K152K222KAug 04BearishBearishBearishBullish
14
USDISM - Manufacturing PMIEconomy54.75657.757.254.854.957.8Aug 01BullishBearishBullish
15
USDCore Retail Sales (MoM)Consumer0.20.80.20.30.3-0.30.1Aug 11BearishBearishBearishBearish
16
USDCB Consumer ConfidenceConsumer111.8114.8125.6119.4117.9117.3121.1Aug 29BearishBearishBullishBullish
17
USDExisting Home Sales
Housing Market
5.49M5.69M5.48M5.71M5.57M5.62M5.52MAug 24BullishBearishBullishBearish
18
USDNew Home Sales
Housing Market
536K555K592K642K593K605K610KAug 23BullishNeutralBullishBearish
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USDFinal GDP QoQEconomy3.5-2.1--1.42.6Aug 27BullishNABullishNeutral
20
USDRetail Sales (MoM)Consumer0.60.40.10.10.4-0.3-0.2Aug 15BearishBearishBearishBearish
21
USD10yrs Bond YieldMarket2.42.482.382.32.282.302.294Aug 31BearishBearishBullishBearish
22
USDSP 500Market2280.32365.42362.32383.92410.92423.12472Aug 31BullishBullishBullishBullish
23
USDPrelim GDP q/qEconomy-1.9--1.20%--Aug 30BearishBullishNA
24
USDAdvanced GDP QoQEconomy1.9--0.7--2.6Oct 27BearishNANABullish
25
USD
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Labour Market0.40.10.20.10.20.10.2Aug 04NeutralBearishNeutralBearish
26
USDCore PCE Price Index m/mInflation0.10.30.2-0.10.1%0.1%-Aug 01NeutralBullishNeutral
27
USDCPI MoMInflation0.30.60.1-0.30.2-0.10.0Aug 11BearishBearishBearishBearish
28
USDIndustrial Production MoMEconomy0.8-0.300.51.10.00.4Aug 17NeutralNeutralNeutralBullish
29
USDFOMCEconomy
Hawkish
-HawkishHawkishNeutralSep 20BullishBullishBullishNeutral
30
JPYCurrent Account AdjustedEconomy1.80T1.67T1.26T2.27T1.73T1.81T1.40TAug 07BullishNeutralBullishBearish
31
JPYConsumer ConfidenceConsumer43.143.243.143.943.243.643.3Aug 02BullishBearishNeutralBearish
32
JPYFlash Manufacturing PMIEconomy52.853.552.652.853.152.452.2Aug 24BearishBearishBearishNeutral
33
JPYTrade BalanceEconomy0.36T0.16T0.68T0.17T0.16T0.13T0.08TAug 16BearishBearishBearishBearish
34
JPYFinal GDPEconomy--0.3--0.3-Dec 07BearishNeutralBearish
35
JPYRetail Sales YoYConsumer0.610.12.13.22.02.1Aug 29BullishBearishBearishBearish
36
JPYBOJ Policy RateEconomydowishdowishdowishdowishdowishNeutralNeutralSep 21NeutralNeutralNeutralNeutral
37
JPY
Overall Household spendingYoY
Consumer-0.3-1.2-3.8-1.3-1.4-0.12.3Aug 28BearishBearishBullishBullish
38
JPYHousing Starts YoYHousing3.912.8-2.60.21.9-0.31.7Aug 31BullishBullishBullishBullish
39
JPYNational Core CPI y/yInflation-0.20.10.20.20.30.40.4Aug 24NeutralBearishNeutralNeutral
40
JPYTokyo Core CPI y/yInflation-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.10.10.00.2Aug 24BullishBullishBearishBullish
41
JPY
Revised Industrial Production MoM
Economy1.50.7-43.2-1.94.0-3.6Aug 15BullishBullishBearishBearish
42
JPYUnemployment RateLabor3.132.82.82.83.12.8Aug 28BullishNeutralBearishBullish
43
JPYNikkeiMarket19.06319.20219.65020,03319925Aug 31BullishBullishBullishBearish
44
JPY10 YRS Bond YieldMarket0.10.0620.0630.0160.0460.0810.079Aug 31BearishBullishBullishBearish
45
JPYCommitments of TradersMarket-66K-50K-66K-30K-51K-61K-121KAug 31BullishBearishBearishBullish
46
JPYPrelim GDP q/qEconomy-0.30%--0.50%--Aug 14BullishBullish
47
GBPManufacturing PMIEconomy56.155.954.654.257.356.354.3Aug 01BearishBullishBullishBearish
48
GBPConstruction PMIEconomy54.252.252.552.253.15654.8Aug 02BullishBullishBullishNeutral
49
GBP
Average Earnings Index (3MoY)
Labour Market
2.8%2.6%2.2%2.3%%2.3%2.1%1.8%Aug 16BullishNeutralBearishNeutral
50
GBPPrelim GDP QoQEconomy0.6--0.2--0.3Oct 25BearishNeutralNeutralNeutral
51
GBPGDP Second Estimate q/qEconomy-0.70%--0.20%--Aug 24NeutralBearishNeutral
52
GBPUn-employment Rate
Labour Market
4.84.84.74.74.64.64.5Aug 16NeutralBullishNeutralBullish
53
GBPClaimant Count Change
Labour Market
-10.1K-42.4K-11.3K33.5K22.0K7.5K6.0KAug 16BearishBearishBullishBullish
54
GBP
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
Market0-0-90-0-91-0-81-0-73-0-5-Aug 03BullishNeutralBullish
55
GBPPMI - Services UKEconomy56.254.553.35555.853.853.4Aug 03BullishBullishBearishNeutral
56
GBPCore CPI (YoY)Inflation1.61.621.82.42.62.5Aug 15BullishBullishBearishBearish
57
GBPCPI (YoY)Inflation1.61.82.32.32.72.92.6Aug 15BullishBullishBullishBearish
58
GBPRetail Sales (MoM)Consumer-1.90%-0.30%1.40%-1.40%2.50%-1.1%0.6Aug 17BearishBullishBearishBullish
59
GBPGFK Consumer ConfidenceConsumer-5-6-6-7-5-10-12Aug 30BearishBullishBearishBearish
60
GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
Economy1.3%%2.1%-0.9%-0.1%-0.6%0.2%-0.2%Aug 10BearishBearishBearishBearish
61
GBPBOE Gov Carney SpeaksMarket
Dowish
Dowish
Dowish
Dowish Dowish Dowish Dowish Aug 04BearishBearishBearishNeutral
62
GBPGDP(YoY)Economy2.221.92.1221.7Aug 26BullishBearishNeutralNeutral
63
GBPBBA Morgage Approvals
Housing Market
43.2Kna42.6K41.1K40.8K40.3K40.2KAug 25BearishNeutralNeutralNeutral
64
GBP
Nationwide Housing Price ( YoY)
Housing Market
4.54.34.52.62.63.13.1Aug 31BearishNeutralBullishNeutral
65
GBP10yrs Bond YieldMarket1.411.151.121.0851.0461.2571.213Aug 31BearishBearishBullishBearish
66
GBP
Commitments of Traders ( Net )
Market-63K-66K-107K-91K-23K-39K-26KAug 31BullishBullishBullishBullish
67
EURCustomer ConfidenceConsumer-5-6-5-4-3-1-2Aug 21BullishNeutralBullishBearish
68
EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Economy16.610.412.819.520.618.617.5Aug 15BullishBearishBearishBearish
69
EUR
Euro ZEW Economic Sentiment
Economy23.217.125.626.335.137.735.6Aug 15BullishBullishBullishBearish
70
EURGerman Flash Services PMIEconomy53.254.455.655.455.254.053.5Aug 22BearishBullishBearishBearish
71
EUR
Eur Flash Manufacturing PMI
Economy55.155.556.256.75757.456.8Aug 22BullishBullishBullishBearish
72
EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Economy56.557.058.358.259.459.658.3Aug 22BullishBullishBullishBearish
73
EUR
German Unemployment Change
Labour Market
-17K-26K-14K-30K-15K-7K7KAug 01BullishBullishBearishBearish
74
EUREur Final Services PMIEconomy53.753.755.556.056.456.355.4Aug 03BearishBullishNeutralBullish
75
EURECB Press ConferenceEconomyDowishDowishNeutralHawkishSep 07BullishBullishNeutralBullish
76
EUR
German IFO Business Climate
Economy109.8111112.3113114.6115.1116Aug 25BullishBullishBullishBullish
77
EURGerman Retail Sales mmConsumer-0.9-0.81.80.2-0.20.51.1Aug 31NeutralBearishBullishBullish
78
EURCore CPI Flash Estimate y/yInflation0.90.90.71.20.91.11.2Aug 31BullishBearishBullishBullish
79
EUREuro Unemployment Rate
Labour Market
9.89.69.69.59.59.39.1Aug 31NeutralBearishBullishBullish
80
EURGerman 10 Yrs Bond YieldMarket0.460.210.320.3180.30300.4670.554Aug 31BearishBearishBullishBullish
81
EUR
Commitments of Traders ( Net )
Market-52K-55K-19K-21K64K58K90KAug 31NeutralBullishBullishBullish
82
EURRetail Sales -EuroConsumer-0.40%-0.30%-0.10%0.70%0.20%0.1%0.4%Aug 03BullishBullishBearishNeutral
83
EURFinal CPI y/yInflation1.11.821.51.91.41.3Aug 17BearishNeutralNeutralNeutral
84
EUREur Flash Services PMIEconomy53.655.656.556.456.255.455.4Aug 22BullishNeutralBearishNeutral
85
EUR
GFK German Consume Climate
Consumer10101010.210.410.610.8Aug 29BullishBullishBullishNeutral
86
EURCPI Flash Estimate y/yInflation1.821.51.91.41.31.3Aug 31BullishBearishBullishNeutral
87
CADTrade Balance - CADEconomy0.5B0.9B0.8B-1.0B-0.9B-0.6B-1.1BAug 04BearishBearishBearishBearish
88
CADCore Retail Sales ( MoM)Consumer0.1-0.31.7-0.1-0.11.5-0.1Aug 18BullishBearishBullishBearish
89
CADTSX Composite IndexEconomy15.38515.39915.54715.58615.32215.182115.128Aug 31NeutralBearishBearishBearish
90
CADHousing Starts
Housing Market
na207K214K254K214K195K213KAug 04BullishBearishBearishBullish
91
CADBOC Rate DecisionMarket0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%-0.75Sep 06NeutralNeutralNeutralBullish
92
CADManufacturing Sales (MoM)Economy1.52.30.6-0.60.80.41.1Aug 14NeutralBearishBullishBullish
93
CADBuilding Permits (MoM)
Housing Market
-0.1%-6.6%5.4%-2.8%-4.9%0.5%8.9%Sep 07BearishBearishBearishBullish
94
CADIvey PMIEconomy60.857.25561.162.453.861.6Aug 04BullishNeutralBearishBullish
95
CADEmployment Change
Labour Market
48.3K15.3K19.4K3.2K54.5K45.3KAug 04BullishBearishBullishBullish
96
CADGDP (MoM)Economy0.40.30.600.50.20.6Aug 31BearishBullishNeutralBullish
97
CADRetail Sales (MoM)Consumer0.2-0.52.2-0.60.50.70.6Aug 18BearishBullishBullishBullish
98
CADUnEmployment Rate
Labour Market
6.8%6.6%6.7%6.5%6.6%6.5Aug 04BullishBullishNeutralBullish
99
CAD10yrs Bond YieldMarket1.7611.6351.6251.5511.4101.7622.04Aug 31BearishBearishBullishBullish
100
CADOILMarket53.0154.0850.9648.9248.1946.3349.67Aug 31BearishBearishBearishBullish
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