| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Based on Cryptoasset Valuations by Chris Burniske | The equation of exchange: M(size of the asset base) x V(Velocity) = P(price of the digital resource being provided) x Q (quantity of the digital resource being provided) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Read the above post first! I may have messed this up, do not take it as truth. | Copy this sheet and play around with the numbers to see how it affects the valuation. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Please leave comments if you have any suggestions or notice mistakes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | BLT Supply Schedule Inputs | Supply Schedule Output | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Blue numbers are assumptions and some values are chosen somewhat arbitrarily. | Metric | Assumption | Year From Launch | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | ||||||||||||
6 | Total Planned Supply | 150,000,000 | BLT Released from Public Sale that year | 75,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Percent of Tokens Issued in ICO | 50.0% | Source | BLT Released from Foundation that year | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | ||||||||||||
8 | Percent of Tokens Issued to Foundation | 20.0% | Source | BLT Released from Founders that year | 15,000,000 | 15,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Lifetime of Foundation | 30 | Aggregate Number of Tokens Released | 91,000,000 | 107,000,000 | 108,000,000 | 109,000,000 | 110,000,000 | 111,000,000 | 112,000,000 | 113,000,000 | 114,000,000 | 115,000,000 | 116,000,000 | 117,000,000 | 118,000,000 | |||||||||||||
10 | Percent Issued to Founders | 20.0% | Source | Number of Tokens in Float after Bonders | 77,300,000 | 90,875,000 | 91,687,500 | 92,481,250 | 93,246,875 | 93,970,313 | 94,630,469 | 95,195,703 | 95,618,555 | 95,827,832 | 95,716,748 | 95,125,122 | 93,812,683 | ||||||||||||
11 | Lock-up for Founders | 2 | Source | Percent of Tokens Held for Voting | 10% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 20% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 24% | ||||||||||||
12 | Tokens bonded in nodes (exchanges?) and secondary layers like Raiden | Total Percent of Tokens in Float Bonded | 15% | Invites to Bloom | 50,000.00 | 75,000.00 | 112,500.00 | 168,750.00 | 253,125.00 | 379,687.50 | 569,531.25 | 854,296.88 | 1,281,445.31 | 1,922,167.97 | 2,883,251.95 | 4,324,877.93 | 6,487,316.89 | ||||||||||||
13 | Bloom team said 1 BLT held for 1yr for each. | BLT/yr Charged for Invite Collatoral | 1.00 | Percent of Tokens Held for Voting | 50,000.00 | 75,000.00 | 112,500.00 | 168,750.00 | 253,125.00 | 379,687.50 | 569,531.25 | 854,296.88 | 1,281,445.31 | 1,922,167.97 | 2,883,251.95 | 4,324,877.93 | 6,487,316.89 | ||||||||||||
14 | district0x has 10%-20% being used for voting now, lenders want to vote! | Starting Tokens Held for Voting | 10% | Percent of Tokens Released that are Hodl'd | 60% | 59% | 57% | 56% | 54% | 53% | 51% | 50% | 48% | 47% | 45% | 44% | 42% | ||||||||||||
15 | This is basically YoY user growth. | Invite Collatoral Growth per Year | 50% | Number of Tokens in Float after Bonders & Hodlers | 13,600,000 | 16,296,000 | 16,735,500 | 17,162,250 | 17,566,875 | 17,935,313 | 18,246,469 | 18,468,703 | 18,554,555 | 18,432,832 | 17,996,748 | 17,086,122 | 15,460,683 | ||||||||||||
16 | Percent of Tokens in Float Initially hodl'd | 60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Now modeling a yearly increase as voting means more over time | Percent Increase in BLT held for voting | 1.20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Decrease in percent of BLT that is hodl'd each year | 1.50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | Blue represents a particularly subjective assumption | BLT Economy and Utility Value Output | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Year From Launch | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||||||||||||||
21 | BLT Economy Inputs | Transaction fee charged by the network | 1.00% | 0.91% | 0.83% | 0.75% | 0.68% | 0.62% | 0.56% | 0.51% | 0.47% | 0.42% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.32% | ||||||||||||||
22 | Metric | Assumption | Annual 3rd thing flows ($) | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | |||||||||||||
23 | Is this realistic? Can this be modeled? | Cost per transaction | 1.00% | Annual 3rd thing available to BLT | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | ||||||||||||
24 | Is this realistic? Prices should come down due to efficiency. | Cost decline for transactions | 10.00% | Annual Credit Risk Assessment flows ($) | $ 13,117,104,000 | $ 14,323,877,568 | $ 15,641,674,304 | $ 17,080,708,340 | $ 18,652,133,508 | $ 20,368,129,790 | $ 22,241,997,731 | $ 24,288,261,522 | $ 26,522,781,582 | $ 28,962,877,488 | $ 31,627,462,217 | $ 34,537,188,741 | $ 37,714,610,105 | ||||||||||||
25 | What risk will this apply to? Creidt only? Insurance? Investment? | Credit Risk Asessment Global 2016 | $ 11,000,000,000 | Source | Annual Credit Risk Asessment flows available to BLT | $ 11,805,393,600 | $ 12,891,489,811 | $ 14,077,506,874 | $ 15,372,637,506 | $ 16,786,920,157 | $ 18,331,316,811 | $ 20,017,797,958 | $ 21,859,435,370 | $ 23,870,503,424 | $ 26,066,589,739 | $ 28,464,715,995 | $ 31,083,469,867 | $ 33,943,149,094 | |||||||||||
26 | Currently using only credit risk assessment. | CAGR for Risk Assessment(2016-2021) | 9% | Annual ID Verification flows ($) | $ 11,344,304,900 | $ 12,807,720,232 | $ 14,459,916,142 | $ 16,325,245,324 | $ 18,431,201,971 | $ 20,808,827,025 | $ 23,493,165,712 | $ 26,523,784,089 | $ 29,945,352,236 | $ 33,808,302,674 | $ 38,169,573,719 | $ 43,093,448,729 | $ 48,652,503,615 | ||||||||||||
27 | Bloom has the potential to handle all credit risk assessment | % of Risk Assessment Addressable for BLT | 90% | Annual ID Verification flows available to BLT | $ 1,134,430,490 | $ 1,280,772,023 | $ 1,445,991,614 | $ 1,632,524,532 | $ 1,843,120,197 | $ 2,080,882,703 | $ 2,349,316,571 | $ 2,652,378,409 | $ 2,994,535,224 | $ 3,380,830,267 | $ 3,816,957,372 | $ 4,309,344,873 | $ 4,865,250,362 | ||||||||||||
28 | BLT existing business | $ - | Total annual transactions available to BLT | $ 12,939,824,090 | $ 14,172,261,834 | $ 15,523,498,488 | $ 17,005,162,039 | $ 18,630,040,354 | $ 20,412,199,514 | $ 22,367,114,529 | $ 24,511,813,779 | $ 26,865,038,648 | $ 29,447,420,006 | $ 32,281,673,367 | $ 35,392,814,739 | $ 38,808,399,456 | |||||||||||||
29 | Identity Verification Global 2016 | $ 8,900,000,000 | Source | % Share of remittance Market Facilitated by Token | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.37% | 0.57% | 0.81% | 1.12% | 1.50% | 1.92% | 2.37% | 2.83% | 3.25% | 3.62% | ||||||||||||
30 | CAGR for Identity Verification (2016-2021) | 13% | % Share of ecommerce Market Facilitated by Token | 0.37% | 0.90% | 1.61% | 2.56% | 3.80% | 5.36% | 7.22% | 9.34% | 11.61% | 13.87% | 15.99% | 17.86% | 19.41% | |||||||||||||
31 | I expect more competition here, and I dont think BLT will handle all ID verification use cases | % of Global ID Verification for BLT | 10% | Transactions Facilitated by BLT Each Year ($) | $ 44,857,299 | $ 117,071,793 | $ 229,607,028 | $ 399,667,929 | $ 648,397,341 | $ 998,962,257 | $ 1,472,472,159 | $ 2,082,196,247 | $ 2,828,241,615 | $ 3,695,901,379 | $ 4,659,570,198 | $ 5,690,737,196 | $ 6,766,027,822 | ||||||||||||
32 | Am I missing a part of the utility the network provides? | Is there a 3rd thing? (2016) | $ - | BLT existing business | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | ||||||||||||
33 | Already including risk assessment, ID verification, voting, and invite collateral | CAGR (2016-2021) | 0% | GDP Facilitated by BLT Each Year | $ 44,857,299 | $ 118,136,082 | $ 231,504,606 | $ 402,670,693 | $ 652,825,982 | $ 1,005,165,026 | $ 1,480,783,881 | $ 2,092,881,206 | $ 2,841,435,571 | $ 3,711,575,609 | $ 4,677,534,859 | $ 5,710,682,882 | $ 6,787,586,472 | ||||||||||||
34 | % addressable for BLT | 0% | Monetary Base Necessary for BLT's GDP | $ 2,242,865 | $ 5,906,804 | $ 11,575,230 | $ 20,133,535 | $ 32,641,299 | $ 50,258,251 | $ 74,039,194 | $ 104,644,060 | $ 142,071,779 | $ 185,578,780 | $ 233,876,743 | $ 285,534,144 | $ 339,379,324 | |||||||||||||
35 | Since we are excluding voters and other bonders, velocity should be high. Maybe even higher? | Velocity | 20 | Current Utility Value of Each Token in the Float | $ 0.16 | $ 0.36 | $ 0.69 | $ 1.17 | $ 1.86 | $ 2.80 | $ 4.06 | $ 5.67 | $ 7.66 | $ 10.07 | $ 13.00 | $ 16.71 | $ 21.95 | ||||||||||||
36 | Transaction fees generated by the network | $ 448,573 | $ 1,064,289 | $ 1,897,579 | $ 3,002,764 | $ 4,428,641 | $ 6,202,770 | $ 8,311,721 | $ 10,684,959 | $ 13,193,956 | $ 15,674,230 | $ 17,964,660 | $ 19,945,687 | $ 21,558,650 | |||||||||||||||
37 | Credit Risk Market Adoption Curve Inputs | Current Utility Value of Each Token in the Float after fees generated per token* | $ 0.17 | $ 0.37 | $ 0.70 | $ 1.19 | $ 1.89 | $ 2.84 | $ 4.11 | $ 5.74 | $ 7.74 | $ 10.17 | $ 13.12 | $ 16.84 | $ 22.09 | ||||||||||||||
38 | Metric | Assumption | *Keep in mind that these are CURRENT UTILITY VALUES OF TOKENS IN FLOAT. To get market value in 2018 we need to take all future utility flows of the token and discount it back. In 2028, you would also have to take into account future utlity value and discount back, which we aren't doing here. This means that actual value in 2028 should be higher than what is shown in the table above. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | There's an oligopoly now. It could be possible to take a majority of this market by replacing them | Base Year | 2018 | 3rd thing Market Adoption Curve Output | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | This is one of the biggest assumptions. I'm estimating they could get 1/3 of the market | Saturation Percentage | 25 | Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | |
41 | Start of Fast Growth | 2020 | Output | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.50% | 0.69% | 0.94% | 1.25% | 1.62% | 2.05% | 2.50% | 2.95% | 3.38% | 3.75% | 4.06% | 4.31% | 4.50% | 4.64% | 4.75% | 4.82% | 4.87% | 4.91% | 4.94% | 4.96% | ||
42 | Take Over Time | 12 | Percent Penetration each Year (after adjustment) | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.37% | 0.57% | 0.81% | 1.12% | 1.50% | 1.92% | 2.37% | 2.83% | 3.25% | 3.62% | 3.94% | 4.18% | 4.37% | 4.52% | 4.62% | 4.70% | 4.75% | 4.79% | 4.81% | 4.83% | ||
43 | ID Verification Market Adoption Curve Inputs | Saturation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
44 | Metric | Assumption | ^Adjustment year, ignore^ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | Base Year | 2018 | Credit Assessment Market Adoption Curve Output | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | This is one of the biggest assumptions. | Saturation Percentage | 5 | Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | |
47 | At 5% of 10% of the market, most of the value comes from credit assessment | Start of Fast Growth | 2021 | Output | 0.89% | 1.27% | 1.79% | 2.50% | 3.45% | 4.69% | 6.25% | 8.12% | 10.24% | 12.50% | 14.76% | 16.88% | 18.75% | 20.31% | 21.55% | 22.50% | 23.21% | 23.73% | 24.11% | 24.37% | 24.56% | 24.70% | 24.79% | 24.85% | |
48 | Take Over Time | 12 | Percent Penetration each Year (after adjustment) | 0.00% | 0.37% | 0.90% | 1.61% | 2.56% | 3.80% | 5.36% | 7.22% | 9.34% | 11.61% | 13.87% | 15.99% | 17.86% | 19.41% | 20.65% | 21.61% | 22.32% | 22.84% | 23.21% | 23.48% | 23.67% | 23.80% | 23.89% | 23.96% | ||
49 | Saturation | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | ||||
50 | Deriving Current Market Value from Future Utility | ^Adjustment year, ignore^ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Metric | Value | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | End Year | 2028 | This is the time over which you are holding. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Years Between 2018 and End Year | 10 | * | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Discount Rate | 30% | This is the yearly return you are aiming for. I chose 30% per year, same as the original model. If you only want 10% a year, the fair price per token goes up above $2. It might be nice to show a distribution around the discount rate in the future. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Total network utility value in 2018 | $142,703,555 | This is the estimated fair price today to earn the discount rate of 30% each year over 10 years. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Market Value in 2018 based on Expectations for Future Utility | $ 0.95 | Given the assumptions, if market price is less than this, it would be considered undervalued, if more than this it is overvalued. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 |