ABCDEFGH
1
Prediction DatePredictionOddsActualResolution DatePrediction Right?Brier ScoreNotes
2
2020 Nov 5At least one Democratic Senate by 204297%Yes2021 Jan 5Right0.0009I bet on this and won $100
3
2020 Nov 5Ten or more Supreme Court justices by EOY 20243%No2025 Jan 1Right0.0009
4
2020 Dec 10Biden is 2020 Time Person of the Year33%Yes2020 Dec 10Wrong0.4489I think this was still higher than most people's odds
5
2020 Dec 10Trump is 2020 Time Person of the Year5%No2020 Dec 10Right0.0025
6
2020 Dec 10Frontline workers or Dr. Fauci is 2020 Time Person of the Year55%No2020 Dec 10Wrong0.3025
7
2020 Dec 10Movement for Racial Justice is 2020 Time Person of the Year7%No2020 Dec 10Right0.0049
8
2021 Jan 4Warnock wins56%Yes2021 Jan 5Right0.1936
9
2021 Jan 4Ossoff wins50%Yes2021 Jan 5Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
10
2021 Jan 4Warnock + Ossoff win47%Yes2021 Jan 5Wrong0.2809A bit lower than conventional wisdom - ended up losing to the conventional wisdom
11
2021 Jan 4Split GA Senate verdict13%No2021 Jan 5Right0.0169A bit lower than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
12
2021 Jan 6Trump completes his term95%Yes2021 Jan 20Right0.0025*much* higher than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
13
2021 Jan 6Trump impeached (and removed) before his term is complete5%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0025
14
2021 Jan 6Trump impeached by 3:30pm CT 7 Jan1%No2021 Jan 7Right0.0001
15
2021 Jan 6Hawley and/or Cruz expelled by Senate (by end of February)5%No2021 Mar 1Right0.0025I bet on this - risked $10 to gain $500 - lost $10
16
2021 Jan 6Trump impeached before his term is complete30%Yes2021 Jan 22Wrong0.4900
17
2021 Jan 7Trump suspended by Twitter before or on 22 Jan70%Yes2021 Jan 23Right0.0900
18
2021 Jan 7Trump impeached and barred from running for office25%No2021 Jun 1Right0.0625I mistakenly thought this could be done with a mere majority vote
19
2021 Jan 7Two-week FB-style suspension of Trump on Twitter by EOD60%No2021 Jan 8Wrong0.3600
20
2021 Jan 7Trump on FOX News at least once by EOY80%Yes2021 Feb 17Right0.0400
21
2021 Jan 7Trump on OANN and/or Newsmax at least once by EOY90%Yes2021 Mar 22Right0.0100https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/trump-mayorkas-border-incompetent/2021/03/22/id/1014757/
22
2021 Jan 7Newsom recall election takes place70%Yes2021 Mar 31Right0.0900
23
2021 Jan 7NYT* will report a 7 day average of >260K COVID cases by EOM50%Yes2021 Jan 8Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500This seems quite underconfident in retrospect
24
2021 Jan 7New variant of COVID requires updating existing vaccines by EOY30%Yes2021 Feb 25Wrong0.4900Higher than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
25
2021 Jan 7the UK variant (b.1.1.7) will not require vaccination updates (by EOY)95%Yes2022 Jan 1Right0.0025
26
2021 Jan 7BTC hits >$40K again by 1 Apr65%Yes2021 Feb 8Right0.1225This seems quite underconfident in retrospect
27
2021 Jan 7BTC hits >=$50K by 1 Apr29%Yes2021 Feb 17Wrong0.5041
28
2021 Jan 7BTC hits >=$60K by 1 Apr12%Yes2021 Apr 1Wrong0.7744
29
2021 Jan 7BTC hits >=$100K by EOY14%No2022 Jan 1Right0.0196
30
2021 Jan 7BTC hits >=$100K by EOY 202460%Yes2025 Jan 1Right0.1600
31
2021 Jan 7BTC hits <=$30K by 1 Apr73%Yes2021 Apr 1Right0.0729*much* higher than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
32
2021 Jan 7BTC hits <=$20K by 1 Apr16%No2021 Apr 1Right0.0256
33
2021 Jan 7BTC hits <=$10K by 1 Apr1%No2021 Apr 1Right0.0001
34
2021 Jan 7BTC hits <=$10K by EOY14%No2022 Jan 1Right0.0196
35
2021 Jan 7BTC between $21K to $54K on 1 Apr80%No2021 Apr 1Wrong0.6400
36
2021 Jan 7Trump will try to self-pardon50%No2021 Jan 20Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
37
2021 Jan 725th amendment invoked, Trump removed, and Trump never reinstated by inauguration5%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0025*much* lower than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
38
2021 Jan 7Trump resigns2%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0004*much* lower than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
39
2021 Jan 7impeachment vote tomorrow40%No2021 Jan 9Right0.1600*much* lower than conventional wisdom - ended up winning to the conventional wisdom
40
2021 Jan 7Trump impeached before his term is complete [update]60%Yes2021 Jan 20Right0.1600*much* lower than conventional wisdom - ended up losing to the conventional wisdom
41
2021 Jan 8Trump's next suspension from Twitter is before 20 Jan40%Yes2021 Jan 8Wrong0.3600
42
2021 Jan 8Trump's next suspension from Twitter is on 20 Jan20%No2021 Jan 8Right0.0400
43
2021 Jan 8Trump's next suspension from Twitter is after 20 Jan but before EOY30%No2021 Jan 8Right0.0900
44
2021 Jan 8Trump not again suspended from Twitter by EOY10%No2021 Jan 8Right0.0100
45
2021 Jan 8Trump banned from Twitter before 20 Jan5%Yes2021 Jan 8Wrong0.9025Wow! I guess I was overconfident here
46
2021 Jan 8Trump banned from Twitter on 20 Jan15%No2021 Jan 8Right0.0225
47
2021 Jan 8Trump banned from Twitter after 20 Jan but before EOY50%No2021 Jan 8Indeterminate (50% prediction)0.2500
48
2021 Jan 8Trump not banned from Twitter by EOY40%No2021 Jan 8Right0.1600
49
2021 Jan 8US nuclear strike by 29 Jan1%No2021 Jan 29Right0.0001Actually much less than 1%
50
2021 Jan 8some sort of COVID stimulus happens by EOY90%Yes2021 Apr 10Right0.0100
51
2021 Jan 8more direct payments for COVID stimulus by EOY80%Yes2021 Apr 10Right0.0400
52
2021 Jan 8total direct payments by EOY total >$600 (per person)70%Yes2021 Apr 10Right0.0900
53
2021 Jan 8total direct payments by EOY total >=$2000 (per person)60%Yes2021 Apr 10Right0.1600
54
2021 Jan 13Trump impeached before his term is complete [update]80%Yes2021 Jan 20Right0.0400
55
2021 Jan 13>=1 GOP house members vote for impeachment80%Yes2021 Jan 20Right0.0400Conditional on vote taking place
56
2021 Jan 13>=10 GOP house members vote for impeachment20%Yes2021 Jan 20Wrong0.6400Conditional on vote taking place
57
2021 Jan 13>=20 GOP house members vote for impeachment10%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0100Conditional on vote taking place
58
2021 Jan 13>=30 GOP house members vote for impeachment5%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0025Conditional on vote taking place
59
2021 Jan 14Trump is convicted by the Senate by end of April 25%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0625
60
2021 Jan 14Trump is barred by the Senate from running for political office by end of April22%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0484
61
2021 Jan 14Trump resigns before his term is over [update]5%No2021 Jan 20Right0.0025
62
2021 Jan 140 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction1%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0001Conditional on vote taking place
63
2021 Jan 141 GOP Senate vote against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction4%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0016Conditional on vote taking place
64
2021 Jan 142-3 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction5%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0025Conditional on vote taking place
65
2021 Jan 144-6 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction20%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0400Conditional on vote taking place
66
2021 Jan 147-8 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction31%Yes2021 Feb 13Wrong0.4761Conditional on vote taking place
67
2021 Jan 149-12 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction10%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0100Conditional on vote taking place
68
2021 Jan 1413-16 GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction4%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0016Conditional on vote taking place
69
2021 Jan 1417+ GOP Senate votes against Trump with regard to impeachment conviction25%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0625Conditional on vote taking place
70
2021 Jan 14Trump is on the ballot for President in the Republican primary in 2023/2024 15%Yes2024 May 1Wrong0.7225
71
2021 Jan 14Trump is 2024 RNOM7%Yes2024 Aug 1Wrong0.8649
72
2021 Jan 14Trump is 2024 POTUS2%Yes2024 Dec 1Wrong0.9604
73
2021 Jan 14Trump is ranked dead last in the next CSpan survey of historians70%No2024 Jan 1Wrong0.4900
74
2021 Jan 14Trump is ranked top two worst in the next CSpan survey of historians90%No2024 Jan 1Wrong0.8100
75
2021 Jan 14Trump is ranked top three worst in the next CSpan survey of historians95%Yes2024 Jan 1Right0.0025
76
2021 Jan 14Trump is ranked top four worst in the next CSpan survey of historians99%Yes2024 Jan 1Right0.0001
77
2021 Jan 19Trump is convicted by the Senate by end of April [update]20%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0400
78
2021 Jan 19Trump pardons Lil' Wayne60%Yes2021 Jan 20Right0.1600
79
2021 Jan 22new all-time high 7-day rolling average of new COVID cases (>244K) between now and the end of March (in the US)55%No2021 Apr 1Wrong0.3025
80
2021 Jan 22new COVID cases for May 2021 will be lower than the total for March 2021 (in the US)60%Yes2021 Jun 1Right0.1600
81
2021 Jan 2214th Amendment route to barr Trump is attempted (vote held in both house and senate) by EOM March15%No2021 Apr 1Right0.0225
82
2021 Jan 22Trump actually is barred from office via a 14th amendment vote by the end of March and the courts uphold it as legal as of EOY 20225%No2021 Apr 1Right0.0025
83
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Jordan25%No2022 Nov 9Right0.0625Seems pretty unlikely now per reporting that Jim Jordan does not want to run
84
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Josh Mandel15%No2022 Nov 9Right0.0225
85
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Jim Renacci10%No2022 Nov 9Right0.0100
86
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Republican other than Jordan, Mandel, and Renacci40%Yes2022 Nov 9Wrong0.3600
87
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is Tim Ryan6%No2022 Nov 9Right0.0036
88
2021 Jan 25The Ohio Senator elected in 2022 is a Democrat other than Tim Ryan4%No2022 Nov 9Right0.0016
89
2021 Jan 26Trump is convicted by the Senate by end of April [update]10%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0100
90
2021 Jan 26<50 votes for conviction [update]1%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0001
91
2021 Jan 2650-52 votes for conviction [update]12%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0144
92
2021 Jan 2653-56 votes for conviction [update]71%No2021 Feb 13Wrong0.5041
93
2021 Jan 2657-63 votes for conviction [update]8%Yes2021 Feb 13Wrong0.8464
94
2021 Jan 2664+ votes for conviction [update]8%No2021 Feb 13Right0.0064
95
2021 Jan 28$GME to stay at or below $400 per share 28 Jan - 18 Feb70%No2021 Jan 28Wrong0.4900I think this is higher than the conventional wisdom - ended up losing to the conventional wisdom
96
2021 Jan 28Newsom successfully recalled by EOY3%No2021 Nov 9Right0.0009
97
2021 Jan 28$GME to stay at or below $400 per share 29 Jan - 19 Feb60%Yes2021 Feb 20Right0.1600
98
2021 Feb 3At least one person in the NYT collectively makes at least 20 falsifiable predictions (with odds) by 3 Feb 202230%No2022 Feb 4Right0.0900
99
2021 Feb 3At least two NYT authors collectively make at least 100 falsifiable forecasts by 3 Feb 20225%No2022 Feb 4Right0.0025
100
2021 Feb 57 day average of new US COVID deaths at EOD 12 Feb per NYT is between 2400 and 280080%No2021 Feb 12Wrong0.6400