ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBABBBCBDBEBFBGBHBIBJBKBLBMBNBOBPBQ
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Nick Kozmin
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growthconsulting.comRelative to P(t)
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Expected[P(t)]$4,515.15Expected value of the offer pricet, (days)
c_new_renewal(t)
c_lost_renewal(t)c_renewal(t) c_lost actual renewalc_new_marketing(t)leads_needed
c_lost_marketing(t)
c_marketing(t) = c_0+ c_dot(t)*t
c_lost actual marketingc_new_marketing+viral(t)c_new_viral(t)c_lost_viral(t)c_viral(t) c_lost actual viral
actual customers - starting with 0 customers
actual customers = p_dot active/nonactive customers sum
rev(t)=p_dot(t)*c_marketing(t)+p_dot_renewal(t)*c_renewal(t)+p_dot_viral(t)*c_viral(t)INT(rev)fc_dot(t) = f_c_0 + f_c_fixed* (actual customers)*fc_coefINT(fc_dot)E_dot(t)= p_dot(t)*c_marketing(t)+p_dot_renewal(t)*c_renewal(t)+p_dot_viral(t)*c_viral(t)-fc_dot(t)PV(E_dot(t))INT(E_dot(t))INT(PV(E_dot(t)))INT(cost_of_tax(t))cost_of_tax(t)cost_of_debt(t)
INT(cost_of_debt(t))
FCF(t) = E_dot(t) - cost_of_debt(t) - cost_of_tax(t)
PV(FCF(t))INT(FCF(t))INT(PV(FCF(t))dtTerminal ValueMarket cap (equity)Share priceMarket cap (EBITDA_Multiple) = sum of E_dots * EBITDA_Multiple - c_0 - debtShare price multiple methodMarket cap (EBITDA_Multiple) with FCF = sum of E_dots * EBITDA_Multiple + FCF - c_0 - debtShare price multiple method with FCFMarket cap (EBITDA_Multiple) with % FCF = sum of E_dots * EBITDA_Multiple + %FCF - c_0 - debtShare price multiple method with % FCFActual customersNew customers outboundNew customers inboundNew customers renewalNew customers viralReturn on cash_0
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Product0100.00100.000.000100.00$0.00$0.00$0.0000$0.0000$0.0000$0.0000$0$0$0$0100.000000DCF Enterprise Value $580,763,075#DIV/0!
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P(t) - annual relative to customer$5,000Price of offer at time, t (annual). 10.130.000.130.0021.14268.660.25120.890.2721.140.000.000.000.000.052121.00$1,263.6409$1,263.6409$408.42$408.42$855.2235$855.1766$855.2235$855.1766$188.1492$188.1492$0.00$0.00$667$667$667$667121.000.0521.090.130.00DCF Market Cap (equity)$580,763,075#DIV/0!
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Realization Rate(t) or (1-Default Rate(t))
93%Amount of revenue realized at time (t). 20.130.000.260.0021.14268.660.25141.790.2721.140.000.000.000.000.155142.00$1,673.2268$2,936.8676$422.23$830.65$1,250.9991$1,250.8620$2,106.2226$2,106.0386$463.3690$275.2198$0.00$0.00$976$976$1,643$1,643142.000.1042.180.260.00Number of shares1.00E+06#DIV/0!
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c_f(t)$451.5210%cost to fulfill (1-gross contribution margin): 30% - 40% for a service business, and 10% ish for an software/info business. Inclusive of the the support and management team. 30.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25162.680.2721.140.000.000.000.000.310163.00$1,851.6796$4,788.5472$436.04$1,266.68$1,415.6415$1,415.4089$3,521.8641$3,521.4475$774.8101$311.4411$0.00$0.00$1,104$1,104$2,747$2,747163.000.1663.270.390.00Share price$580.76#DIV/0!
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t_c - days365Time to collect: Time it takes to realize full P(t) - price. 90 days for a 3 month payment plan. 365 days for a 12 month payment plan. This is the term length. 40.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25183.580.2721.140.000.000.000.000.517183.99$2,030.1324$6,818.6796$449.85$1,716.53$1,580.2840$1,579.9377$5,102.1481$5,101.3852$1,122.4726$347.6625$0.00$0.00$1,233$1,232$3,980$3,979183.990.2184.360.530.00EBITDA_Multiple_1 Market Cap$556,088,608#DIV/0!
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Refund Rate2.00%50.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25204.470.2721.140.000.000.000.000.776204.99$2,208.5851$9,027.2647$463.66$2,180.19$1,744.9264$1,744.4485$6,847.0746$6,845.8336$1,506.3564$383.8838$0.00$0.00$1,361$1,361$5,341$5,340204.990.26105.450.660.00EBITDA_Multiple_2 Market Cap$397,206,149#DIV/0!
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Refund period - days 30If someone were to refund, what is the average time they refund. Remove outliers. 60.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25225.370.2721.140.000.000.000.001.086225.99$2,387.0379$11,414.3026$477.47$2,657.66$1,909.5689$1,908.9412$8,756.6435$8,754.7749$1,926.4616$420.1052$0.00$0.00$1,489$1,489$6,830$6,829225.990.31126.540.790.00EBIT Market Cap$896,494,278#DIV/0!
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c_churn_term50.00%100.00%% of customers who decide not to renew at the end of their term70.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25246.260.2721.140.000.000.000.001.448246.99$2,565.4907$13,979.7933$491.28$3,148.94$2,074.2114$2,073.4159$10,830.8548$10,828.1908$2,382.7881$456.3265$0.00$0.00$1,618$1,617$8,448$8,446246.990.36147.630.920.00EBITDA_Multiple_1 Market Cap with % of FCF$703,628,317#DIV/0!
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80.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25267.160.2721.140.000.000.000.001.862267.99$2,743.9435$16,723.7368$505.09$3,654.03$2,238.8538$2,237.8726$13,069.7086$13,066.0634$2,875.3359$492.5478$0.00$0.00$1,746$1,746$10,194$10,192267.990.41168.711.050.00P/E Multiple Market Cap$1,089,635,308#DIV/0!
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Renewals90.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25288.050.2721.140.000.000.000.002.327288.99$2,922.3963$19,646.1330$518.90$4,172.93$2,403.4963$2,402.3113$15,473.2049$15,468.3747$3,404.1051$528.7692$0.00$0.00$1,875$1,874$12,069$12,065288.990.47189.801.180.00EV/Revenue Multiple Market Cap$320,131,294#DIV/0!
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p_renewal(t)$5,000The price at the time of the new contract, assuming churn is not zero. 100.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25308.950.2721.140.000.000.000.002.845309.99$3,100.8490$22,746.9821$532.71$4,705.64$2,568.1387$2,566.7319$18,041.3436$18,035.1067$3,969.0956$564.9905$0.00$0.00$2,003$2,002$14,072$14,067309.990.52210.891.320.00c_consumption$0.00#DIV/0!
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Expected[p_renewal(t)]$4,515110.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25329.840.2721.140.000.000.000.003.414330.98$3,279.3018$26,026.2839$546.52$5,252.16$2,732.7812$2,731.1345$20,774.1248$20,766.2412$4,570.3074$601.2119$0.00$0.00$2,132$2,130$16,204$16,198330.980.57231.981.450.00t_profitability - day1#DIV/0!
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contract_length365The time until renewal120.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25350.740.2721.140.000.000.000.004.034351.98$3,457.7546$29,484.0385$560.33$5,812.49$2,897.4236$2,895.5191$23,671.5484$23,661.7603$5,207.7406$637.4332$0.00$0.00$2,260$2,259$18,464$18,456351.980.62253.071.580.00t_cash_profitability - day1#DIV/0!
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c_s_renewal(t) $50010%Cost in terms of price of renewal to sell the renewal. 130.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25371.630.2721.140.000.000.000.004.707372.98$3,636.2074$33,120.2459$574.14$6,386.63$3,062.0661$3,059.8857$26,733.6144$26,721.6460$5,881.3952$673.6545$0.00$0.00$2,388$2,387$20,852$20,843372.980.67274.161.710.00#DIV/0!
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c_f_renewal(t) $50010%Cost to fulfil the renewal in terms of price. 140.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25392.530.2721.140.000.000.000.005.431393.98$3,814.6602$36,934.9061$587.95$6,974.58$3,226.7085$3,224.2343$29,960.3230$29,945.8803$6,591.2711$709.8759$0.00$0.00$2,517$2,515$23,369$23,358393.980.72295.251.840.00#DIV/0!
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t_c_renewal - days2The time it takes to collect the renewal payment. 150.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25413.420.2721.140.000.000.000.006.206414.98$3,993.1130$40,928.0190$601.76$7,576.35$3,391.3510$3,388.5648$33,351.6739$33,334.4451$7,337.3683$746.0972$0.00$0.00$2,645$2,643$26,014$26,001414.980.78316.341.970.00#DIV/0!
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p_dot_renewal - day (account for c_s)
$1,757.58Profit/unit of time (days) - renewal 160.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25434.320.2721.140.000.000.000.007.034435.98$4,171.5657$45,099.5848$615.57$8,191.92$3,555.9934$3,552.8773$36,907.6674$36,887.3224$8,119.6868$782.3186$0.00$0.00$2,774$2,771$28,788$28,772435.980.83337.432.100.00#DIV/0!
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p_dot_renewal - month (account for c_s)
$53,447.86Profit/unit of time (month) - renewal 170.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25455.210.2721.140.000.000.000.007.913456.98$4,350.0185$49,449.6033$629.38$8,821.30$3,720.6359$3,717.1718$40,628.3032$40,604.4942$8,938.2267$818.5399$0.00$0.00$2,902$2,899$31,690$31,672456.980.88358.522.240.00#DIV/0!
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renewal_rate_renewals50%% of customers who renew after the end of the first renewal contract. 180.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25476.110.2721.140.000.000.000.008.844477.97$4,528.4713$53,978.0746$643.19$9,464.49$3,885.2783$3,881.4483$44,513.5816$44,485.9424$9,792.9879$854.7612$0.00$0.00$3,031$3,028$34,721$34,699477.970.93379.612.370.00#DIV/0!
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190.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25497.000.2721.140.000.000.000.009.827498.97$4,706.9241$58,684.9987$657.00$10,121.50$4,049.9208$4,045.7067$48,563.5023$48,531.6492$10,683.9705$890.9826$0.00$0.00$3,159$3,156$37,880$37,855498.970.98400.702.500.00#DIV/0!
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Granular? (Yes/No) Marketing and Sales
Yes200.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25517.900.2721.140.000.000.000.0010.861519.97$4,885.3769$63,570.3756$670.81$10,792.31$4,214.5632$4,209.9472$52,778.0656$52,741.5964$11,611.1744$927.2039$0.00$0.00$3,287$3,284$41,167$41,138519.971.04421.792.630.00#DIV/0!
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OutboundYes210.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25538.790.2721.140.000.000.000.0011.947540.97$5,063.8296$68,634.2052$684.62$11,476.93$4,379.2057$4,374.1696$57,157.2713$57,115.7660$12,574.5997$963.4253$0.00$0.00$3,416$3,412$44,583$44,550540.971.09442.882.760.00#DIV/0!
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outbound_salary$98.65$3,000.00SDR monthly salary220.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25559.680.2721.140.000.000.000.0013.085561.97$5,242.2824$73,876.4876$698.43$12,175.37$4,543.8481$4,538.3741$61,701.1194$61,654.1401$13,574.2463$999.6466$0.00$0.00$3,544$3,540$48,127$48,090561.971.14463.972.890.00#DIV/0!
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number_of_contacts_per_month_per_SDR32.881000230.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25580.580.2721.140.000.000.000.0014.275582.97$5,420.7352$79,297.2229$712.24$12,887.61$4,708.4906$4,702.5605$66,409.6100$66,356.7006$14,610.1142$1,035.8679$0.00$0.00$3,673$3,668$51,799$51,758582.971.19485.053.020.00#DIV/0!
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total_salary_per_day$98.65240.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25601.470.2721.140.000.000.000.0015.516603.97$5,599.1880$84,896.4108$726.05$13,613.67$4,873.1330$4,866.7289$71,282.7431$71,223.4295$15,682.2035$1,072.0893$0.00$0.00$3,801$3,796$55,601$55,554603.971.24506.143.160.00#DIV/0!
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number of SDRs1250.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25622.370.2721.140.000.000.000.0016.809624.97$5,777.6408$90,674.0516$739.87$14,353.53$5,037.7755$5,030.8794$76,320.5186$76,254.3089$16,790.5141$1,108.3106$0.00$0.00$3,929$3,924$59,530$59,478624.971.29527.233.290.00#DIV/0!
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cost_per_100_contacts 300260.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25643.260.2721.140.000.000.000.0018.154645.96$5,956.0936$96,630.1452$753.68$15,107.21$5,202.4180$5,195.0118$81,522.9365$81,449.3206$17,935.0460$1,144.5319$0.00$0.00$4,058$4,052$63,588$63,530645.961.35548.323.420.00#DIV/0!
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outbound_contacts_dot32.88270.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25664.160.2721.140.000.000.000.0019.550666.96$6,134.5463$102,764.6915$767.49$15,874.69$5,367.0604$5,359.1262$86,889.9969$86,808.4468$19,115.7993$1,180.7533$0.00$0.00$4,186$4,180$67,774$67,711666.961.40569.413.550.00#DIV/0!
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outbound conversion rate2.00%280.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25685.050.2721.140.000.000.000.0020.999687.96$6,312.9991$109,077.6907$781.30$16,655.99$5,531.7029$5,523.2226$92,421.6998$92,331.6694$20,332.7739$1,216.9746$0.00$0.00$4,315$4,308$72,089$72,019687.961.45590.503.680.00#DIV/0!
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t_m_outbound (days)7290.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25705.950.2721.140.000.000.000.0022.499708.96$6,491.4519$115,569.1426$795.11$17,451.10$5,696.3453$5,687.3010$98,118.0451$98,018.9704$21,585.9699$1,253.1960$0.00$0.00$4,443$4,436$76,532$76,455708.961.50611.593.810.00#DIV/0!
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cost_per_lead_outbound$150.00300.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.25726.840.2721.140.000.000.000.0024.050729.96$6,669.9047$122,239.0472$808.92$18,260.01$5,860.9878$5,851.3614$103,979.0328$103,870.3319$22,875.3872$1,289.4173$0.00$0.00$4,572$4,564$81,104$81,019729.961.55632.683.950.00#DIV/0!
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lead_dot_outbound (leads/day)0.66310.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67747.310.7021.140.000.000.000.0025.621750.53$6,844.7463$129,083.7936$822.45$19,082.46$6,022.2972$6,012.0765$110,001.3300$109,882.4084$24,200.2926$1,324.9054$0.00$0.00$4,697$4,689$85,801$85,708750.531.60653.774.080.00#DIV/0!
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lead_conversion_rate_outbound7.00%320.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67767.790.7021.140.000.000.000.0027.243771.11$7,019.5880$136,103.3816$835.98$19,918.45$6,183.6066$6,172.7739$116,184.9366$116,055.1822$25,560.6860$1,360.3934$0.00$0.00$4,823$4,815$90,624$90,523771.111.66674.864.210.00#DIV/0!
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c_dot_outbound (day)0.046New customers per day, gotten through outbound prospecting330.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67788.260.7021.140.000.000.000.0028.915791.69$7,194.4297$143,297.8112$849.51$20,767.96$6,344.9160$6,333.4537$122,529.8526$122,388.6359$26,956.5676$1,395.8815$0.00$0.00$4,949$4,940$95,573$95,463791.691.71695.954.340.00#DIV/0!
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cac_outbound$2,594.37340.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67808.730.7021.140.000.000.000.0030.638812.26$7,369.2713$150,667.0826$863.05$21,631.00$6,506.2254$6,494.1158$129,036.0779$128,882.7517$28,387.9371$1,431.3696$0.00$0.00$5,075$5,065$100,648$100,529812.261.76717.044.470.00#DIV/0!
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InboundYes350.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67829.200.7021.140.000.000.000.0032.412832.84$7,544.1130$158,211.1955$876.58$22,507.58$6,667.5348$6,654.7603$135,703.6127$135,537.5121$29,854.7948$1,466.8577$0.00$0.00$5,201$5,191$105,849$105,719832.841.81738.134.600.00#DIV/0!
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Media spend$2,630.71$80,000.00Media spend per month360.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67849.670.7021.140.000.000.000.0034.237853.41$7,718.9546$165,930.1501$890.11$23,397.69$6,828.8442$6,815.3872$142,532.4569$142,352.8993$31,357.1405$1,502.3457$0.00$0.00$5,326$5,316$111,175$111,035853.411.86759.224.730.00#DIV/0!
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cpm$5.00370.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67870.150.7021.140.000.000.000.0036.112873.99$7,893.7963$173,823.9464$903.64$24,301.34$6,990.1536$6,975.9965$149,522.6105$149,328.8958$32,894.9743$1,537.8338$0.00$0.00$5,452$5,441$116,628$116,477873.991.91780.304.870.00#DIV/0!
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ctr1.00%380.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67890.620.7021.140.000.000.000.0038.038894.56$8,068.6379$181,892.5843$917.17$25,218.51$7,151.4630$7,136.5882$156,674.0735$156,465.4840$34,468.2962$1,573.3219$0.00$0.00$5,578$5,567$122,206$122,043894.561.97801.395.000.00#DIV/0!
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views_dot5,261Number of views per day390.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67911.090.7021.140.000.000.000.0040.014915.14$8,243.4796$190,136.0639$930.71$26,149.22$7,312.7724$7,297.1622$163,986.8460$163,762.6462$36,077.1061$1,608.8099$0.00$0.00$5,704$5,692$127,910$127,735915.142.02822.485.130.00#DIV/0!
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funnel conversion rate5.00%400.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67931.560.7021.140.000.000.000.0042.041935.72$8,418.3212$198,554.3852$944.24$27,093.46$7,474.0818$7,457.7187$171,460.9278$171,220.3649$37,721.4041$1,644.2980$0.00$0.00$5,830$5,817$133,740$133,552935.722.07843.575.260.00#DIV/0!
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t_m_inbound1410.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67952.030.7021.140.000.000.000.0044.119956.29$8,593.1629$207,147.5481$957.77$28,051.23$7,635.3912$7,618.2575$179,096.3190$178,838.6224$39,401.1902$1,679.7861$0.00$0.00$5,956$5,942$139,695$139,494956.292.12864.665.390.00#DIV/0!
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cost_per_lead_inbound$10.00420.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67972.510.7021.140.000.000.000.0046.248976.87$8,768.0045$215,915.5526$971.30$29,022.53$7,796.7006$7,778.7787$186,893.0196$186,617.4010$41,116.4643$1,715.2741$0.00$0.00$6,081$6,067$145,777$145,562976.872.17885.755.520.00#DIV/0!
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lead_dot_inbound263.07430.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.67992.980.7021.140.000.000.000.0048.427997.44$8,942.8462$224,858.3988$984.84$30,007.37$7,958.0100$7,939.2822$194,851.0297$194,556.6833$42,867.2265$1,750.7622$0.00$0.00$6,207$6,193$151,984$151,754997.442.23906.845.650.00#DIV/0!
48
lead_conversion_rate_inbound8.00%440.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671013.450.7021.140.000.000.000.0050.6571018.02$9,117.6879$233,976.0867$998.37$31,005.74$8,119.3194$8,099.7682$202,970.3491$202,656.4515$44,653.4768$1,786.2503$0.00$0.00$6,333$6,318$158,317$158,0721018.022.28927.935.790.00#DIV/0!
49
c_dot_inbound (day)21.046New customers per day, gotten through media buying450.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671033.920.7021.140.000.000.000.0052.9371038.59$9,292.5295$243,268.6162$1,011.90$32,017.64$8,280.6288$8,260.2366$211,250.9780$210,916.6881$46,475.2152$1,821.7383$0.00$0.00$6,459$6,443$164,776$164,5151038.592.33949.025.920.00#DIV/0!
50
cac_inbound$576.52460.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671054.390.7021.140.000.000.000.0055.2691059.17$9,467.3712$252,735.9873$1,025.43$33,043.07$8,441.9383$8,420.6873$219,692.9162$219,337.3754$48,332.4416$1,857.2264$0.00$0.00$6,585$6,568$171,360$171,0831059.172.38970.116.050.00#DIV/0!
51
OrganicYes470.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671074.870.7021.140.000.000.000.0057.6501079.75$9,642.2128$262,378.2002$1,038.97$34,082.04$8,603.2477$8,581.1205$228,296.1639$227,918.4958$50,225.1561$1,892.7145$0.00$0.00$6,711$6,693$178,071$177,7761079.752.43991.206.180.00#DIV/0!
52
Organic cost$328.84$10,000.00Amount of money spent on organic marketing per month480.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671095.340.7021.140.000.000.000.0060.0831100.32$9,817.0545$272,195.2546$1,052.50$35,134.53$8,764.5571$8,741.5360$237,060.7209$236,660.0318$52,153.3586$1,928.2026$0.00$0.00$6,836$6,818$184,907$184,5951100.322.481012.296.310.00#DIV/0!
53
organic_views_month164.425000490.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671115.810.7021.140.000.000.000.0062.5661120.90$9,991.8961$282,187.1508$1,066.03$36,200.56$8,925.8665$8,901.9339$245,986.5874$245,561.9658$54,117.0492$1,963.6906$0.00$0.00$6,962$6,944$191,870$191,5381120.902.541033.386.440.00#DIV/0!
54
organic_view_to_lead_conversion_rate
3.00%500.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671136.280.7021.140.000.000.000.0065.1001141.47$10,166.7378$292,353.8886$1,079.56$37,280.13$9,087.1759$9,062.3143$255,073.7633$254,624.2800$56,116.2279$1,999.1787$0.00$0.00$7,088$7,069$198,958$198,6071141.472.591054.476.580.00#DIV/0!
55
lead_to_customer_conversion_rate_organic
1.00%510.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671156.750.7021.140.000.000.000.0067.6851162.05$10,341.5794$302,695.4680$1,093.09$38,373.22$9,248.4853$9,222.6770$264,322.2486$263,846.9570$58,150.8947$2,034.6668$0.00$0.00$7,214$7,194$206,171$205,8011162.052.641075.566.710.00#DIV/0!
56
time_to_market_organic1520.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671177.230.7021.140.000.000.000.0070.3201182.63$10,516.4211$313,211.8891$1,106.63$39,479.85$9,409.7947$9,383.0221$273,732.0433$273,229.9791$60,221.0495$2,070.1548$0.00$0.00$7,340$7,319$213,511$213,1191182.632.691096.646.840.00#DIV/0!
57
lead_dot_organic4.93530.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671197.700.7021.140.000.000.000.0073.0061203.20$10,691.2628$323,903.1519$1,120.16$40,600.00$9,571.1041$9,543.3496$283,303.1474$282,773.3288$62,326.6924$2,105.6429$0.00$0.00$7,465$7,444$220,976$220,5631203.202.741117.736.970.00#DIV/0!
58
cost_per_lead_organic$66.67540.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671218.170.7021.140.000.000.000.0075.7431223.78$10,866.1044$334,769.2563$1,133.69$41,733.70$9,732.4135$9,703.6596$293,035.5609$292,476.9883$64,467.8234$2,141.1310$0.00$0.00$7,591$7,569$228,568$228,1321223.782.791138.827.100.00#DIV/0!
59
c_dot_organic (day)0.05550.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671238.640.7021.140.000.000.000.0078.5301244.35$11,040.9461$345,810.2023$1,147.22$42,880.92$9,893.7229$9,863.9519$302,929.2838$302,340.9402$66,644.4424$2,176.6190$0.00$0.00$7,717$7,694$236,285$235,8261244.352.851159.917.230.00#DIV/0!
60
cac_organic$7,118.18560.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671259.110.7021.140.000.000.000.0081.3681264.93$11,215.7877$357,025.9900$1,160.76$44,041.67$10,055.0323$10,024.2266$312,984.3161$312,365.1669$68,856.5495$2,212.1071$0.00$0.00$7,843$7,819$244,128$243,6451264.932.901181.007.360.00#DIV/0!
61
Outbound/Inbound/Organic combined variables570.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671279.590.7021.140.000.000.000.0084.2571285.50$11,390.6294$368,416.6194$1,174.29$45,215.96$10,216.3417$10,184.4838$323,200.6578$322,549.6507$71,104.1447$2,247.5952$0.00$0.00$7,969$7,944$252,097$251,5891285.502.951202.097.500.00#DIV/0!
62
outbound_lead_ratio (outboundleads/(outboundleads+inboundleads+organicleads)0.24%580.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671300.060.7021.140.000.000.000.0087.1971306.08$11,565.4710$379,982.0904$1,187.82$46,403.78$10,377.6511$10,344.7233$333,578.3089$332,894.3740$73,387.2280$2,283.0832$0.00$0.00$8,095$8,069$260,191$259,6581306.083.001223.187.630.00#DIV/0!
63
inbound_lead_ratio (inboundleads/(outboundleads+inboundleads+organicleads)97.92%590.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671320.530.7021.140.000.000.000.0090.1871326.66$11,740.3127$391,722.4031$1,201.35$47,605.13$10,538.9605$10,504.9453$344,117.2695$343,399.3193$75,705.7993$2,318.5713$0.00$0.00$8,220$8,194$268,411$267,8511326.663.051244.277.760.00#DIV/0!
64
organic_lead_ratio (outboundleads/(outboundleads+inboundleads+organicleads)1.84%600.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671341.000.7021.140.000.000.000.0093.2271347.23$11,915.1543$403,637.5575$1,214.88$48,820.02$10,700.2699$10,665.1497$354,817.5394$354,064.4690$78,059.8587$2,354.0594$0.00$0.00$8,346$8,319$276,758$276,1701347.233.111265.367.890.00#DIV/0!
65
blended_lead_dot268.66610.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671361.470.7021.140.000.000.000.0096.3191367.81$12,089.9960$415,727.5535$1,228.42$50,048.43$10,861.5793$10,825.3365$365,679.1187$364,889.8055$80,449.4061$2,389.5475$0.00$0.00$8,472$8,444$285,230$284,6141367.813.161286.458.020.00#DIV/0!
66
blended_cost_per_lead$11.38620.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671381.950.7021.140.000.000.000.0099.4611388.38$12,264.8376$427,992.3911$1,241.95$51,290.38$11,022.8887$10,985.5057$376,702.0075$375,875.3112$82,874.4416$2,425.0355$0.00$0.00$8,598$8,569$293,828$293,1831388.383.211307.548.150.00#DIV/0!
67
blended_lead_conversion_rate7.87%630.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671402.420.7021.140.000.000.000.00102.6541408.96$12,439.6793$440,432.0704$1,255.48$52,545.86$11,184.1982$11,145.6573$387,886.2056$387,020.9685$85,334.9652$2,460.5236$0.00$0.00$8,724$8,694$302,551$301,8761408.963.261328.638.280.00#DIV/0!
68
c_dot_blended21.141640.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671422.890.7021.140.000.000.000.00105.8971429.53$12,614.5210$453,046.5914$1,269.01$53,814.88$11,345.5076$11,305.7913$399,231.7132$398,326.7599$87,830.9769$2,496.0117$0.00$0.00$8,849$8,819$311,401$310,6951429.533.311349.728.420.00#DIV/0!
69
t_m_blended1.00650.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671443.360.7021.140.000.000.000.00109.1911450.11$12,789.3626$465,835.9540$1,282.55$55,097.42$11,506.8170$11,465.9078$410,738.5301$409,792.6676$90,362.4766$2,531.4997$0.00$0.00$8,975$8,943$320,376$319,6381450.113.361370.818.550.00#DIV/0!
70
c_m_blended$144.66660.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671463.830.7021.140.000.000.000.00112.5361470.69$12,964.2043$478,800.1582$1,296.08$56,393.50$11,668.1264$11,626.0067$422,406.6565$421,418.6743$92,929.4644$2,566.9878$0.00$0.00$9,101$9,068$329,477$328,7071470.693.421391.908.680.00#DIV/0!
71
CPL$11.38Cost to generate a lead. 670.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671484.300.7021.140.000.000.000.00115.9321491.26$13,139.0459$491,939.2042$1,309.61$57,703.11$11,829.4358$11,786.0880$434,236.0923$433,204.7623$95,531.9403$2,602.4759$0.00$0.00$9,227$9,193$338,704$337,9001491.263.471412.988.810.00#DIV/0!
72
Lead Conversion Rate7.87%Rate at which a lead becomes a customer that purchases at P(t). 680.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671504.780.7021.140.000.000.000.00119.3781511.84$13,313.8876$505,253.0917$1,323.14$59,026.25$11,990.7452$11,946.1517$446,226.8375$445,150.9140$98,169.9042$2,637.9639$0.00$0.00$9,353$9,318$348,057$347,2181511.843.521434.078.940.00#DIV/0!
73
c_m(t)$144.6620%Cost to market: Cost to acquire lead (traffic -> interest). Relative to P(t) for simplicity, but can be derived from CPL, and lead conversion rate. 690.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671525.250.7021.140.000.000.000.00122.8751532.41$13,488.7292$518,741.8210$1,336.67$60,362.93$12,152.0546$12,106.1978$458,378.8921$457,257.1118$100,843.3563$2,673.4520$0.00$0.00$9,479$9,443$357,536$356,6611532.413.571455.169.070.00#DIV/0!
74
c_s(t) $451.5210%Cost to sell: typically 15% +- 3% for salespeople. 700.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671545.720.7021.140.000.000.000.00126.4221552.99$13,663.5709$532,405.3919$1,350.21$61,713.14$12,313.3640$12,266.2264$470,692.2561$469,523.3382$103,552.2963$2,708.9401$0.00$0.00$9,604$9,568$367,140$366,2281552.993.621476.259.210.00#DIV/0!
75
CAC (t)$596.17Cost to Acquire A Customer710.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671566.190.7021.140.000.000.000.00130.0201573.57$13,838.4125$546,243.8044$1,363.74$63,076.87$12,474.6734$12,426.2374$483,166.9295$481,949.5756$106,296.7245$2,744.4281$0.00$0.00$9,730$9,692$376,870$375,9211573.573.671497.349.340.00#DIV/0!
76
Contribution After Marketing$3,467.46720.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671586.660.7021.140.000.000.000.00133.6691594.14$14,013.2542$560,257.0586$1,377.27$64,454.15$12,635.9828$12,586.2308$495,802.9123$494,535.8064$109,076.6407$2,779.9162$0.00$0.00$9,856$9,817$386,726$385,7381594.143.731518.439.470.00#DIV/0!
77
Contribution Margin Before Marketing
80.00%730.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671607.140.7021.140.000.000.000.00137.3691614.72$14,188.0959$574,445.1544$1,390.80$65,844.95$12,797.2922$12,746.2067$508,600.2045$507,282.0131$111,892.0450$2,815.4043$0.00$0.00$9,982$9,942$396,708$395,6801614.723.781539.529.600.00#DIV/0!
78
Contribution Margin After Marketing
76.80%740.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671627.610.7021.140.000.000.000.00141.1191635.29$14,362.9375$588,808.0920$1,404.34$67,249.29$12,958.6016$12,906.1650$521,558.8061$520,188.1781$114,742.9373$2,850.8924$0.00$0.00$10,108$10,067$406,816$405,7471635.293.831560.619.730.00#DIV/0!
79
t_s - days40Time to sell in days. Typically 14-90 days (anything longer than 90 days, just means someone is not good at sales.)750.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671648.080.7021.140.000.000.000.00144.9201655.87$14,537.7792$603,345.8711$1,417.87$68,667.15$13,119.9110$13,066.1057$534,678.7171$533,254.2838$117,629.3178$2,886.3804$0.00$0.00$10,234$10,192$417,049$415,9381655.873.881581.709.860.00#DIV/0!
80
t_m - days130Time to market. Time in days it takes to go from traffic to lead. (could be 1 day with FB). 760.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671668.550.7021.140.000.000.000.00148.7721676.44$14,712.6208$618,058.4919$1,431.40$70,098.55$13,281.2204$13,226.0288$547,959.9375$546,480.3126$120,551.1863$2,921.8685$0.00$0.00$10,359$10,316$427,409$426,2551676.443.931602.799.990.00#DIV/0!
81
t_p_dot_active406The time between the first purchase event and the first renewal event. 770.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671689.020.7021.140.000.000.000.00152.6741697.02$14,887.4625$632,945.9544$1,444.93$71,543.49$13,442.5298$13,385.9344$561,402.4674$559,866.2470$123,508.5428$2,957.3566$0.00$0.00$10,485$10,441$437,894$436,6961697.023.981623.8810.130.00#DIV/0!
82
p_dot(t) - day $8.54Profit per customer per day 780.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671709.500.7021.140.000.000.000.00156.6271717.60$15,062.3041$648,008.2585$1,458.46$73,001.95$13,603.8392$13,545.8225$575,006.3066$573,412.0695$126,501.3875$2,992.8446$0.00$0.00$10,611$10,566$448,505$447,2611717.604.041644.9710.260.00#DIV/0!
83
p_dot(t) - month$259.72Profit per customer per month***** - Should be over $700790.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671729.970.7021.140.000.000.000.00160.6311738.17$15,237.1458$663,245.4043$1,472.00$74,473.95$13,765.1486$13,705.6929$588,771.4553$587,117.7624$129,529.7202$3,028.3327$0.00$0.00$10,737$10,690$459,242$457,9521738.174.091666.0610.390.00#DIV/0!
84
c_0100Customer count at time t=0 800.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671750.440.7021.140.000.000.000.00164.6851758.75$15,411.9874$678,657.3917$1,485.53$75,959.48$13,926.4581$13,865.5458$602,697.9133$600,983.3083$132,593.5409$3,063.8208$0.00$0.00$10,863$10,815$470,104$468,7671758.754.141687.1510.520.00#DIV/0!
85
c_dot(0) - day21.14100Customer acquisition rate in months (average new customers per month)- function of t - treat as constant. 810.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671770.910.7021.140.000.000.000.00168.7901779.32$15,586.8291$694,244.2208$1,499.06$77,458.54$14,087.7675$14,025.3812$616,785.6808$615,008.6895$135,692.8498$3,099.3088$0.00$0.00$10,988$10,940$481,093$479,7071779.324.191708.2310.650.00#DIV/0!
86
c_dot_dot (days)0.000The rate at which customer acquisition rate is increasing per day (As a result of adding new reps who bring in this number of customers in per day)820.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671791.380.7021.140.000.000.000.00172.9461799.90$15,761.6707$710,005.8916$1,512.59$78,971.13$14,249.0769$14,185.1990$631,034.7576$629,193.8884$138,827.6467$3,134.7969$0.00$0.00$11,114$11,064$492,207$490,7711799.904.241729.3210.780.00#DIV/0!
87
0The day when remote sales team is implemented, and c_dot_dot becomes non-zero830.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671811.860.7021.140.000.000.000.00177.1521820.47$15,936.5124$725,942.4040$1,526.13$80,497.26$14,410.3863$14,344.9992$645,445.1439$643,538.8877$141,997.9317$3,170.2850$0.00$0.00$11,240$11,189$503,447$501,9601820.474.301750.4110.920.00#DIV/0!
88
Growth force impact duration - days
60840.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671832.330.7021.140.000.000.000.00181.4091841.05$16,111.3541$742,053.7580$1,539.66$82,036.92$14,571.6957$14,504.7819$660,016.8396$658,043.6696$145,203.7047$3,205.7730$0.00$0.00$11,366$11,314$514,813$513,2741841.054.351771.5011.050.00#DIV/0!
89
850.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671852.800.7021.140.000.000.000.00185.7171861.63$16,286.1957$758,339.9537$1,553.19$83,590.11$14,733.0051$14,664.5470$674,749.8447$672,708.2166$148,444.9658$3,241.2611$0.00$0.00$11,492$11,438$526,305$524,7121861.634.401792.5911.180.00#DIV/0!
90
Viral Component860.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671873.270.7021.140.000.000.000.00190.0751882.20$16,461.0374$774,800.9911$1,566.72$85,156.83$14,894.3145$14,824.2946$689,644.1591$687,532.5112$151,721.7150$3,276.7492$0.00$0.00$11,618$11,563$537,922$536,2751882.204.451813.6811.310.00#DIV/0!
91
Invites_per customer 0Invites per customer, happens once for easch customer870.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671893.740.7021.140.000.000.000.00194.4851902.78$16,635.8790$791,436.8701$1,580.26$86,737.09$15,055.6239$14,984.0246$704,699.7830$702,516.5358$155,033.9523$3,312.2373$0.00$0.00$11,743$11,688$549,666$547,9631902.784.501834.7711.440.00#DIV/0!
92
Conversion Rate per invite 10%880.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671914.220.7021.140.000.000.000.00198.9441923.35$16,810.7207$808,247.5908$1,593.79$88,330.87$15,216.9333$15,143.7371$719,916.7163$717,660.2729$158,381.6776$3,347.7253$0.00$0.00$11,869$11,812$561,535$559,7751923.354.551855.8611.570.00#DIV/0!
93
k_value0890.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671934.690.7021.140.000.000.000.00203.4551943.93$16,985.5623$825,233.1531$1,607.32$89,938.19$15,378.2427$15,303.4321$735,294.9590$732,963.7050$161,764.8910$3,383.2134$0.00$0.00$11,995$11,937$573,530$571,7121943.934.611876.9511.700.00#DIV/0!
94
viral_time - days3900.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671955.160.7021.140.000.000.000.00208.0161964.51$17,160.4040$842,393.5571$1,620.85$91,559.05$15,539.5521$15,463.1094$750,834.5111$748,426.8144$165,183.5925$3,418.7015$0.00$0.00$12,121$12,061$585,651$583,7731964.514.661898.0411.840.00#DIV/0!
95
viral_start - day300910.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671975.630.7021.140.000.000.000.00212.6281985.08$17,335.2456$859,728.8028$1,634.38$93,193.43$15,700.8615$15,622.7693$766,535.3727$764,049.5837$168,637.7820$3,454.1895$0.00$0.00$12,247$12,186$597,898$595,9591985.084.711919.1311.970.00#DIV/0!
96
c_s_viral$677.2715.00%920.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.671996.100.7021.140.000.000.000.00217.2902005.66$17,510.0873$877,238.8901$1,647.92$94,841.35$15,862.1709$15,782.4116$782,397.5436$779,831.9953$172,127.4596$3,489.6776$0.00$0.00$12,372$12,310$610,270$608,2692005.664.761940.2212.100.00#DIV/0!
97
c_m_viral$451.5210.00%930.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.672016.580.7021.140.000.000.000.00222.0032026.23$17,684.9289$894,923.8190$1,661.45$96,502.80$16,023.4803$15,942.0363$798,421.0239$795,774.0316$175,652.6253$3,525.1657$0.00$0.00$12,498$12,435$622,768$620,7042026.234.811961.3112.230.00#DIV/0!
98
p_dot_viral - day $8.04t_c is same as for p_dot, t_m, t_s are 0940.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.672037.050.7021.140.000.000.000.00226.7672046.81$17,859.7706$912,783.5896$1,674.98$98,177.78$16,184.7897$16,101.6436$814,605.8136$811,875.6752$179,213.2790$3,560.6537$0.00$0.00$12,624$12,559$635,393$633,2632046.814.861982.4012.360.00#DIV/0!
99
p_dot_viral - month$244.52950.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.672057.520.7021.140.000.000.000.00231.5822067.38$18,034.6123$930,818.2019$1,688.51$99,866.29$16,346.0991$16,261.2333$830,951.9128$828,136.9085$182,809.4208$3,596.1418$0.00$0.00$12,750$12,684$648,142$645,9472067.384.922003.4912.490.00#DIV/0!
100
960.130.130.260.0021.14268.660.672077.990.7021.140.000.000.000.00236.4472087.96$18,209.4539$949,027.6558$1,702.05$101,568.33$16,507.4085$16,420.8054$847,459.3213$844,557.7139$186,441.0507$3,631.6299$0.00$0.00$12,876$12,808$661,018$658,7552087.964.972024.5712.620.00#DIV/0!