2013 VA "Break Even" Numbers
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2013 Virginia "Break Even" Numbers
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An estimate of the votes Terry McAuliffe (D) needs to win in each locality in order to win statewide by 1 vote.
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Compiled by: David Wasserman, Cook Political Report @Redistrict - *Note: this analysis excludes third party votes
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LocalityDeeds '09 Got...%Cuccinelli Needs...McAuliffe Needs...McA. Needs...%Cuccinelli ActualMcAuliffe ActualMcAuliffe Actual%McA. vs. Model
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ACCOMACK COUNTY37.57%4,7793,90344.95%4,8793,80643.82%-1.13%
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ALBEMARLE COUNTY49.46%13,49518,49757.82%12,39619,01960.54%2.72%
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ALEXANDRIA CITY62.88%10,73827,82472.15%9,38329,53375.89%3.73%
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ALLEGHANY COUNTY61.26%2,4152,38449.67%1,9931,62844.96%-4.71%
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AMELIA COUNTY28.87%2,7111,28732.19%2,6131,33733.85%1.66%
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AMHERST COUNTY32.11%5,3813,04236.12%5,4652,99335.39%-0.73%
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APPOMATTOX COUNTY25.65%3,2731,28628.21%3,4751,24126.31%-1.90%
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ARLINGTON COUNTY65.66%16,89646,07973.17%14,96048,28876.35%3.18%
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AUGUSTA COUNTY22.54%14,7485,11525.75%13,8135,00026.58%0.83%
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BATH COUNTY63.51%90569243.34%68639236.36%-6.98%
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BEDFORD COUNTY22.88%16,9596,42227.47%16,7775,65525.21%-2.26%
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BLAND COUNTY24.07%1,29744225.42%1,30038822.99%-2.44%
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BOTETOURT COUNTY28.61%7,4173,26630.57%7,3642,92228.41%-2.16%
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BRISTOL CITY27.50%2,6621,18430.78%2,5361,30533.98%3.20%
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BRUNSWICK COUNTY49.46%1,8522,27755.14%1,6182,70462.56%7.42%
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BUCHANAN COUNTY36.75%3,3751,73133.89%3,2751,46130.85%-3.05%
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BUCKINGHAM COUNTY36.60%2,1481,60742.79%2,0531,80446.77%3.98%
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BUENA VISTA CITY39.05%85950236.87%72142236.92%0.05%
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CAMPBELL COUNTY22.94%11,0393,96626.43%11,1293,70925.00%-1.43%
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CAROLINE COUNTY43.49%3,5623,43949.12%3,3763,79452.91%3.79%
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CARROLL COUNTY26.98%4,9552,15630.32%5,0612,18230.13%-0.19%
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CHARLES CITY COUNTY58.59%8291,34961.93%8271,55765.31%3.38%
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CHARLOTTE COUNTY33.29%2,1131,24337.04%2,1041,35839.23%2.19%
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CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY73.75%2,1028,76780.66%1,9179,40783.07%2.41%
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CHESAPEAKE CITY39.66%28,36328,94850.51%28,83230,80851.66%1.15%
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CHESTERFIELD COUNTY33.62%52,26742,13744.63%51,07342,83645.61%0.98%
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CLARKE COUNTY36.63%2,5711,85441.90%2,5962,00243.54%1.64%
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COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY16.83%3,6611,37227.26%3,3191,13125.42%-1.84%
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COVINGTON CITY65.88%59678056.71%51359053.49%-3.22%
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CRAIG COUNTY32.19%1,07950331.82%1,06239026.86%-4.96%
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CULPEPER COUNTY29.65%6,8804,05237.07%7,2443,90935.05%-2.02%
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CUMBERLAND COUNTY35.88%1,5171,12442.56%1,4561,19044.97%2.41%
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DANVILLE CITY44.98%4,9165,78154.04%4,8205,38852.78%-1.26%
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DICKENSON COUNTY39.49%2,2711,30236.43%2,1251,18435.78%-0.65%
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DINWIDDIE COUNTY37.36%4,0763,14243.54%3,5073,38049.08%5.54%
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EMPORIA CITY47.61%60069753.75%56998763.43%9.68%
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ESSEX COUNTY39.19%1,5091,32446.73%1,4861,38148.17%1.44%
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FAIRFAX CITY46.96%2,7333,80558.20%2,7743,98458.95%0.75%
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FAIRFAX COUNTY49.18%114,445175,71760.56%110,125176,69161.60%1.05%
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FALLS CHURCH CITY65.01%1,1943,27373.27%1,1423,52375.52%2.25%
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FAUQUIER COUNTY31.14%11,6397,32138.61%12,5627,37536.99%-1.62%
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FLOYD COUNTY34.13%2,7721,66437.51%2,6361,48836.08%-1.43%
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FLUVANNA COUNTY36.53%4,1113,42845.47%3,7713,34747.02%1.55%
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FRANKLIN CITY54.55%9181,32259.01%8331,36262.05%3.04%
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FRANKLIN COUNTY31.17%9,8055,22234.75%10,0104,75032.18%-2.57%
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FREDERICK COUNTY25.13%12,7746,25432.87%13,1486,33932.53%-0.34%
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FREDERICKSBURG CITY50.96%2,2103,45961.02%2,1543,48861.82%0.81%
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GALAX CITY37.46%76751540.16%72845538.46%-1.70%
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GILES COUNTY36.59%2,7471,66637.75%2,9431,54134.37%-3.38%
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GLOUCESTER COUNTY27.81%7,3273,85434.47%6,6883,63335.20%0.73%
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GOOCHLAND COUNTY29.15%5,1022,74434.97%5,1553,07737.38%2.41%
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GRAYSON COUNTY29.71%2,7611,30132.03%3,0941,40031.15%-0.88%
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GREENE COUNTY27.40%3,2451,76335.20%3,0691,71935.90%0.70%
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GREENSVILLE COUNTY52.64%1,1811,40754.36%1,0121,72463.01%8.65%
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HALIFAX COUNTY38.34%5,3073,45139.40%5,4323,90941.85%2.44%
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HAMPTON CITY57.96%10,65822,81768.16%10,36324,60070.36%2.20%
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HANOVER COUNTY23.65%23,82810,71231.01%23,40610,85631.69%0.67%
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HARRISONBURG CITY42.23%3,5933,93852.29%3,2364,18756.41%4.11%
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HENRICO COUNTY43.72%41,51849,99254.63%39,33753,04157.42%2.79%
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HENRY COUNTY36.99%7,9194,88338.15%8,0244,55736.22%-1.92%
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HIGHLAND COUNTY44.93%65732733.21%55727933.37%0.17%
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HOPEWELL CITY37.47%2,3792,32349.41%2,4462,49950.54%1.13%
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ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY34.13%7,0014,68340.08%6,5474,84342.52%2.44%
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JAMES CITY COUNTY34.34%13,55410,35343.31%13,74311,32945.19%1.88%
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KING & QUEEN COUNTY41.07%1,11294245.87%1,05196847.94%2.08%
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KING GEORGE COUNTY29.73%3,7902,17336.44%3,9852,28936.48%0.05%
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KING WILLIAM COUNTY28.42%3,1791,67434.50%2,9761,67135.96%1.46%
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LANCASTER COUNTY35.25%2,4451,89943.71%2,3671,78643.01%-0.71%
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LEE COUNTY25.72%3,8221,28625.17%3,5071,18025.18%0.00%
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LEXINGTON CITY60.61%60189259.74%49893665.27%5.53%
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LOUDOUN COUNTY38.87%38,54439,96050.90%40,35344,28852.32%1.42%
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LOUISA COUNTY34.60%5,4103,56539.72%5,3763,54639.74%0.02%
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LUNENBURG COUNTY37.46%1,8481,27440.81%1,7051,39745.04%4.23%
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LYNCHBURG CITY38.15%11,8278,75942.55%10,6327,92342.70%0.15%
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MADISON COUNTY30.48%2,4921,48837.39%2,5101,57538.56%1.17%
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MANASSAS CITY38.03%3,8993,98950.57%3,8284,01351.18%0.61%
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MANASSAS PARK CITY39.83%9811,17454.47%8881,14256.26%1.78%
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MARTINSVILLE CITY51.74%1,4031,84756.83%1,4111,72354.98%-1.85%
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MATHEWS COUNTY30.00%2,2031,12433.79%2,0441,19436.87%3.09%
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MECKLENBURG COUNTY32.32%4,4382,79138.61%4,2263,03841.82%3.21%
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MIDDLESEX COUNTY30.45%2,2921,30736.32%2,1311,37539.22%2.90%
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MONTGOMERY COUNTY45.38%10,77810,88350.24%10,12510,67851.33%1.09%
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NELSON COUNTY46.28%2,4502,36649.13%2,3142,52352.16%3.03%
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NEW KENT COUNTY25.50%4,3571,99831.44%4,3602,12032.72%1.27%
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NEWPORT NEWS CITY50.02%15,16123,94561.23%14,78125,08962.93%1.69%
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NORFOLK CITY60.16%12,37030,15870.91%11,65231,69073.12%2.20%
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NORTHAMPTON COUNTY48.91%1,6472,04455.38%1,5882,04756.31%0.93%
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NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY34.46%2,8011,83939.63%2,8231,96140.99%1.36%
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NORTON CITY39.38%59432535.37%48234641.79%6.41%
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NOTTOWAY COUNTY41.64%2,2251,77444.35%1,8991,75648.04%3.69%
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ORANGE COUNTY32.68%5,6303,76340.06%5,5613,62939.49%-0.57%
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PAGE COUNTY29.77%4,4072,40635.32%3,7542,00134.77%-0.55%
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PATRICK COUNTY29.89%3,2341,48331.44%3,5531,37327.87%-3.56%
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PETERSBURG CITY81.03%9356,06786.65%7987,25990.10%3.45%
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PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY28.54%11,1255,36532.54%11,6825,41931.69%-0.85%
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