2014 Election Predictions
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Who?Type
2014 Rank [/23]
BlogLinkComments
Chi^2 (NDF=9)
NationalLabourGreenNZ FirstCCCPIMPMaoriACTUnited FutureAll otherTotalNationalLabourGreenNZ FirstCCCPIMPMaoriACTUnited FutureAll otherNationalLabourGreenNZ FirstCCCPIMPMaoriACTUnited FutureAll other
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NZ Herald DigipollIndividual poll1
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/
448.20%25.90%11.00%8.40%3.30%1.00%1.10%0.50%0.20%0.40%100.00%2.50%2.19%1.56%1.39%0.89%0.50%0.52%0.35%0.22%0.32%0.00 0.31 0.39 0.11 0.84 0.27 0.13 0.290.011.61
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MePundit2Kiwipollguy
https://twitter.com/kiwipollguy/status/512830616782397440
updated afternoon of 20 September
4.547.40%25.70%12.00%7.00%3.50%1.50%1.20%0.70%0.20%0.80%100.00%2.50%2.18%1.62%1.28%0.92%0.61%0.54%0.42%0.22%0.45%0.07 0.21 1.49 2.10 0.46 0.16 0.03 00.010
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Gavin WhitePundit3Sayit
http://sayit.co.nz/blog/its-crunch-time
5.145.00%26.00%11.00%9.00%4.45%1.45%1.30%0.80%0.60%0.40%100.00%2.49%2.19%1.56%1.43%1.03%0.60%0.57%0.45%0.39%0.32%1.51 0.36 0.39 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.060.971.61
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David CunliffePolitician4
http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/paulhenryshow/cunliffe-on-craziest-moments-of-the-election-2014091923
reasonable guesses for all other parties so everything adds to 100%
5.345.50%27.00%11.63%7.32%4.27%1.55%1.19%0.69%0.30%0.55%100.00%2.49%2.22%1.60%1.30%1.01%0.62%0.54%0.41%0.27%0.37%1.06 1.08 1.01 1.38 0.02 0.22 0.03 00.090.46
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William BowePoll of polls5
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/09/19/new-zealand-election-wrap-up/
reasonable guesses for ACT and UF so everything adds to 100%
5.846.50%24.80%12.90%7.60%4.20%1.50%1.30%0.54%0.23%0.43%100.00%2.49%2.16%1.68%1.32%1.00%0.61%0.57%0.37%0.24%0.33%0.39 0.00 2.95 0.89 0.01 0.16 0.00 0.1701.28
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David FarrarPoll of polls6
Kiwiblog Weighted Average
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/09/the_2014_election_polls.html
5.946.30%25.40%12.80%7.60%4.20%1.40%1.20%0.40%0.20%0.50%100.00%2.49%2.18%1.67%1.32%1.00%0.59%0.54%0.32%0.22%0.35%0.50 0.11 2.77 0.89 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.840.010.72
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Bryce EdwardsPundit7
https://twitter.com/bryce_edwards/status/512788713231757312
6.144.00%24.50%12.00%10.00%5.00%1.30%1.70%0.50%0.20%0.80%100.00%2.48%2.15%1.62%1.50%1.09%0.57%0.65%0.35%0.22%0.45%2.68 0.01 1.49 0.59 0.65 0.00 0.40 0.290.010
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RadioNZ Poll of PollsPoll of polls8
RadioNZ Poll of Polls
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/254997/poll-of-polls-with-colin-james
6.946.40%25.70%12.50%7.60%4.30%1.40%1.20%0.40%0.10%0.40%100.00%2.49%2.18%1.65%1.32%1.01%0.59%0.54%0.32%0.16%0.32%0.44 0.21 2.25 0.89 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.840.581.61
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Roy MorganIndividual poll9
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/
746.50%24.00%13.50%8.00%3.50%1.00%1.50%0.50%0.50%1.00%100.00%2.49%2.14%1.71%1.36%0.92%0.50%0.61%0.35%0.35%0.50%0.39 0.10 4.15 0.39 0.46 0.27 0.12 0.290.630.16
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John KeyPolitician10
http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/election/ondemand/zbtv-john-key-election-predictions-17sep2014
reasonable guesses for Green, IMP and other so everything adds to 100%
7.947.00%24.00%12.15%6.70%5.00%1.52%1.43%1.07%0.60%0.53%100.00%2.50%2.14%1.63%1.25%1.09%0.61%0.59%0.51%0.39%0.36%0.18 0.10 1.70 2.96 0.65 0.18 0.06 0.550.970.55
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Paul HarperPundit11
https://twitter.com/pauljmharper/status/512801332139261952
8.344.00%27.00%13.00%8.00%4.00%1.50%1.00%0.66%0.29%0.55%100.00%2.48%2.22%1.68%1.36%0.98%0.61%0.50%0.40%0.27%0.37%2.68 1.08 3.14 0.39 0.02 0.16 0.34 0.010.070.46
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One News Colmar BruntonIndividual poll12
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/
1045.10%25.20%12.50%8.10%4.40%1.80%1.60%0.60%0.00%0.70%100.00%2.49%2.17%1.65%1.36%1.03%0.66%0.63%0.39%0.10%0.42%1.42 0.06 2.25 0.30 0.07 0.66 0.24 0.054.840.06
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Andrew RobertsonPundit13Grumpollie
http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2014/09/19/my-election-prediction/
1045.10%25.20%12.50%8.10%4.40%1.80%1.60%0.60%0.00%0.70%100.00%2.49%2.17%1.65%1.36%1.03%0.66%0.63%0.39%0.10%0.42%1.42 0.06 2.25 0.30 0.07 0.66 0.24 0.054.840.06
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Lord SutchPundit14
The Ruminator
http://ruminator.co.nz/election-prediction/
1046.00%26.00%14.00%7.00%3.31%1.22%0.93%0.52%0.22%0.80%100.00%2.49%2.19%1.73%1.28%0.89%0.55%0.48%0.36%0.24%0.44%0.68 0.36 5.26 2.10 0.82 0.01 0.55 0.2300
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Occasionally Erudite poll-of-polls
Poll of polls15
Occasionally Erudite poll-of-polls
https://jononatusch.wordpress.com/2014/09/19/poll-of-polls-update-19-september-2014/comment-page-1/
10.147.60%25.90%12.60%6.30%3.30%1.90%1.00%0.50%0.10%0.80%100.00%2.50%2.19%1.66%1.21%0.89%0.68%0.50%0.35%0.16%0.45%0.03 0.31 2.42 4.41 0.84 0.88 0.34 0.290.580
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2011 General Election Results
Previous results
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_general_election,_2011#Results
(the null hypothesis)
10.547.31%27.48%11.06%6.59%2.65%1.08%1.43%1.07%0.60%0.73%100.00%2.50%2.23%1.57%1.24%0.80%0.52%0.59%0.51%0.39%0.43%0.091.560.443.323.350.120.060.550.970.03
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Rob SalmondPoll of polls17Polity/Pundit
http://polity.co.nz/content/last-poll-polls
10.847.80%25.40%12.40%6.70%3.90%1.50%1.00%0.50%0.00%0.80%100.00%2.50%2.18%1.65%1.25%0.97%0.61%0.50%0.35%0.10%0.45%0.010.112.092.960.050.160.340.294.840
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iPredict
Futures market
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http://www.electionresults.co.nz/
Normalised to 100%
11.745.00%25.30%13.20%7.02%4.23%2.03%1.02%1.35%0.42%0.42%100.00%2.49%2.17%1.69%1.28%1.01%0.71%0.50%0.58%0.32%0.32%1.510.083.532.040.011.190.31.320.391.35
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Peter GreenPoll of polls19
https://twitter.com/pitakakariki/status/512492890388316160
The Dimpost "corrected-for-reality" polling averages
13.543.30%24.20%12.60%9.50%5.60%2.50%0.80%0.40%0.50%0.60%100.00%2.48%2.14%1.66%1.47%1.15%0.78%0.45%0.32%0.35%0.39%3.690.052.420.21.662.521.210.840.630.27
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Fairfax Ipsos PollIndividual poll20
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/
13.647.70%26.10%12.00%6.60%4.50%0.90%0.90%0.30%0.00%1.00%100.00%2.50%2.20%1.62%1.24%1.04%0.47%0.47%0.27%0.10%0.50%0.020.411.493.280.130.580.682.034.840.16
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Danyl MclauchlanPundit21The Dimpost
http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2014/09/18/election-predictions-and-uncertainties-and-strategic-voting/
The Dimpost, upper bound projections + fill in the blanks
14.644.00%24.00%15.00%9.00%5.00%1.10%0.83%0.48%0.21%0.38%100.00%2.48%2.14%1.79%1.43%1.09%0.52%0.45%0.35%0.23%0.31%2.680.17.780.010.650.091.030.3701.86
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3 News Reid ResearchIndividual poll22
http://curiablog.wordpress.com/
33.844.50%25.60%14.40%7.10%4.90%2.00%1.10%0.10%0.10%0.20%100.00%2.48%2.18%1.76%1.28%1.08%0.70%0.52%0.16%0.16%0.22%2.050.176.231.860.521.120.1313.940.587.21
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Wikipedia Opinion PollingPoll of polls23
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2014
71.949.30%24.80%12.20%6.50%4.10%1.80%0.90%0.50%0.10%0.00%100.20%2.50%2.16%1.64%1.23%0.99%0.66%0.47%0.35%0.16%0.10%0.2501.773.6300.660.680.290.5864
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Average of predictions12.546.07%25.44%12.56%7.64%4.17%1.51%1.18%0.59%0.25%0.59%100.01%
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Election Results48.06%24.69%10.02%8.85%4.12%1.26%1.29%0.69%0.22%0.80%100.00%
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"Number polled"400
(To measure accuracy of predictions we calculate a \chi^2 value. The standard errors are assumed equal to those of a poll with this many people.)
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Predictions