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This spreadsheet is an update to previous reasoning we have published:
- https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uiT6New2aXRB9qyrcQODhflnRR8QOZk-g1_9qaRRqjo
- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R01LeOxG9iJv_QuCL52MBSGcEXd62VH6zWKbe6MEZpc

New rows and columns are highlighed in orange.
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DRCGuineaMalawiUgandaTogoBurkina FasoChadNigeria (MC)Nigeria (SMC, first $15m)Nigeria (SMC, last $10m)ReasoningNigeria (AMF LLINs)Reasoning
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Priors
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace AMF costs20%20%20%20%20%---15%Calculation
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Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs-----25%25%25%25%25%Calculation-
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Considerations that were informally informing priors, with guess of contribution to priors
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Global funding gaps are relatively small (though GiveWell-funded SMC is a large portion of overall SMC)40%40%40%40%40%30%30%30%30%30%
Copied from previous adjustment. There was a large reduction in the Nigeria gap from 2019 to 2020 (https://www.givewell.org/charities/malaria-consortium#GlobalNeed), but this was already captured in our prior.
40%
Copied from other countries for nets.
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Surveys show major gaps in LLIN coverage-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%------15%
This is -5% compared to other countries. WHO’s World Malaria Report 2019 reports that roughly 57% of the population at risk for malaria in sub-Saharan Africa had access to ITNs in 2018; in Nigeria this figure was a bit lower, under 50%. (https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241565721)
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AMF as funder of last resort-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%------10%
Copied from other countries.
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Other funders taking over philanthropically-funded areas in SMC------5%-5%-5%-5%-5%
Copied from previous adjustment.
-
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Newly added considerations, with percentage point update on priors
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Malaria funding has been increasing0%5%10%10%30%20%15%10%10%15%
Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight increase for the last $10m to account for the possibility of increased PMI funding. Reasoning: PMI funding has stayed about the same since 2017 (https://www.pmi.gov/about/pmi-annual-report-2020). However, there have been periodic increases in PMI's funding, and the new Biden administration has signaled renewed commitment to international engagement, leading us to believe that a funding increase is possible..
10%
AMF's support will go to states where PMI works. PMI funding has stayed about the same since 2017 (https://www.pmi.gov/about/pmi-annual-report-2020). However, there have been periodic increases in PMI's funding, and the new Biden administration has signaled renewed commitment to international engagement, leading us to believe that a funding increase is possible.
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Global Fund allocations are more dynamic than we realized15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%10%30%
Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight decrease for the first $15m and a substantial increase for the last $10m. Reasoning: we weigh this consideration more heavily for a situation that requires less funding from the Global Fund.
0%
AMF's support will go to states where PMI works. We don't expect these states to receive Global Fund funding.
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Other funders are taking AMF and Malaria Consortium in account15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%
Copied from previous adjustment. No difference between tranches because all room for more funding is in areas Malaria Consortium will have supported since 2021 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12dIOJZSHmkdTlNEFISBZXLC5OjjSmAtr_z1CkY0X2bA/edit#gid=1729841067).
10%
This is -5% compared to other countries. AMF has not supported distributions in Nigeria before, so it seems less likely that PMI took funding from AMF into account prior to recent discussions.
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More funding leads to more room for funding-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-20%
Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight decrease for the last $10m. Reasoning: We weight this consideration more heavily for Nigeria, where room for more funding includes newly-eligible areas and the addition of 5th cycle (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12dIOJZSHmkdTlNEFISBZXLC5OjjSmAtr_z1CkY0X2bA/edit#gid=1729841067). We also weigh this consideration more heavily for the "end" of a funding gap.
-15%
Copied from other countries.
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AMF is relatively thoughtful about crowding out others, but less so for DRC5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-----0%
We've set this at 0% because we have not thought deeply about this consideration for this particular opportunity.
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DRC may be relatively underfunded-10%0%0%0%0%------
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Nigeria may be relatively underfunded----0%0%0%-15%-15%-10%
Copied from previous adjustment, with a slight increase for the last $10m. Reasoning: we weigh this consideration less heavily for a situation that requires less funding from the Global Fund.
-15%
Copied from other Nigeria column. Malaria Consortium notes that for LLINs in Nigeria, "Although a number of ITN distribution campaigns have been implemented over the past decade, the coverage level remains low in some areas and varies greatly between states. Resource constraint is the main challenge as large number of ITNs are required to cover the country, which is the most populous in Africa. ITN campaigns have not been implemented for nine years in five states and six years in three states." The alleged long delays between LLIN campaigns are borne out by the evidence AMF has shared.
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Impact on net spending 2021-23, under AMF proposal----------0%
If AMF commits funding, PMI will spend roughly the same amount in 2021-23 on net distributions as it would have under the counterfactual (source is an unpublished budget shared by AMF); the effect of AMF's funding in that time period will be to increase the number of nets delivered.
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Impact on net spending 2024, under AMF proposal----------15%
If 2024 distributions are moved up to 2023, funding that PMI would have spent in 2024 is freed up (source is an unpublished budget shared by AMF). It is possible that some amount of the freed-up funding may be spent on less cost-effective uses.
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New values
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace AMF costs30%35%40%40%60%-----20%Calculation
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs----70%60%55%35%30%55%Calculation-
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