[Shared publicly] IDinsight BOTEC
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ProjectRough estimate of total costForecastProbabilityCost-effectiveness of IDi grant (X times as cost-effective as cash)Notes% of benefitsTotal value in cash equivalent
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New Incentives RCT$2,350,000P(NI is ~5x cash)65%11.1
See Sheet "New NI BOTEC" in this spreadsheet for a more detailed model
27%$26,096,546
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Charity Science: Health$1,600,000P(CSH is ~5x cash)30%7.5
See Sheet "New CSH BOTEC" in this spreadsheet for a more detailed model
13%$11,984,316
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AMF Monitoring$500,000P(we have a much better answer on AMF monitoring quality)80%5
For now, I've skipped quantifying the value of this since it's less straightforward. I could create a model for this, but it'd mostly be based on the fairly intangible value of having better answers to questions. Intuitively, spending $500K to have a better answer about how AMF has spent $100M seems reasonable
3%$2,500,000
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Beneficiary preferences$1,100,000P(causes us to allocate $50M 10% "better")35%9.3
Haven't thought hard about this model
11%$10,205,125
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VAD survey$2,000,000
P(this causes us to reallocate ~$20M to a giving opportunity that's ~2x better [either by finding surprisingly positive or negative results])
30%14.3
See Sheet "IDi VAD BOTEC" in this spreadsheet for a more detailed model
30%$28,575,000
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Family planning RCT$2,350,000P(family planning is ~5x cash)30%6.6
Haven't thought hard about this model
16%$15,599,846
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100%$94,960,832
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Total$9,900,000
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Overall cost-effectiveness in multiples of cash9.6
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