1968-2016 National True Vote Model
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1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof
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Richard Charnin
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1/22/2013 Updated: 7/22/17
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The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. The model calculates an estimateed the True Vote for every election since 1968. Only two inputs are required: the election year and the calculation method (1-5). These deceptively simple inputs produce a wealth of information and insight.
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The calculation methods are straightforward. Method 1 reproduces the adjusted Final National Exit Poll. One very important result is the turnout of previous election voters required to match the official recorded vote. In 1972 (Nixon), 1988 (Bush 1), 1992 (Bush 1), 2004 (Bush 2) and 2008 (Bush 2) returning Republican turnout exceeded 100%. This impossible result indicates massive election fraud.
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Methods 2-5 calculate the vote shares based on alternative returning voter assumptions: method 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 assumes total votes cast; method 4 assumes the previous exit poll; method 5 the previous (calculated) True Vote.
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The adjusted National Exit Poll is a mathematical matrix of deceit. It is always forced to match the recorded vote. In the 12 elections since 1968, there have been over 80 million net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Democratic. And of course, the advent of unverifiable voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.
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Final election vote shares are dependent on just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).
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The TVM uses best estimates of returning voter turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.
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It turns out that the Final Exit Poll match to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans. For example in 2004, the National Exit Poll indicated that 43% of voters were returning Bush and 37% Gore. In 2008, 46% were returning Bush and just 37% Kerry. Both turnouts were impossible and implied millions more Bush voters than were living.
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Sensitivity Analysis
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The final NEP shares of new and returning voters are best estimates (base case); we need to gauge the effect of incremental changes on the bottom line Total Vote shares. The TVM does this automatically by calculating a True Vote Matrix of Plausibility (25 scenarios of alternative vote shares and corresponding vote margins).
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The National Election Pool consists of six media giants and funds the exit polls. In 2012 the NEP decided to poll in just 31 states, claiming that it would save them money in these “tough” times. It would have cost perhaps $5 million to poll the other 19 states. Split it six ways and it’s less than the salary of a media pundit.
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The published 2012 National Exit Poll does not include the “Voted in 2008” crosstab. It would have been helpful, but we don’t really need it. We calculated the vote shares required to match the recorded vote by trial and error, given the 2008 recorded vote as a basis. After all, that’s what they always do anyway.
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We distinguish between the True Vote (how people actually voted) and the official, recorded vote as provided by the media.
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It is an undeniable fact that in every election, the True Vote is never equal to the recorded vote.
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This is self-evident since the number of votes cast is never equal to the number recorded and therefore the True Vote shares cannot equal the recorded shares.
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In the eleven elections since 1968, there have been approximately 80 million net uncounted votes.
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Net uncounted votes declined from 10.6 million (10%) in 1988 to 5.4 million (5%) in 2000 to 3.4 million in 2004 (3%).
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Given that the vast majority of uncounted votes are Democratic, the Democratic recorded vote must always understate the True Vote.
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In the1968-2008 elections, the average presidential recorded vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Republican.
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We will show that the average presidential True Vote share was 49-45% in favor of the Democrats.
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Uncounted votes are just one factor why Democratic presidential candidates always do better in the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls than the recorded vote.
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Since the percentage of net uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, they are no longer a major factor in causing the discrepancies.
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Electronic voting machines have become institutionalized.
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Touch screen computers (DREs) produce unverifiable results and Optical scanned paper ballots are rarely hand-counted.
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In addition, invisible central computers that tabulate total votes for each district/county are vulnerable to malicious programming.
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Votes cast on DREs are lost in cyberspace and cannot be verified.
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Oregon is the only paper ballot state which mandates hand-counts of randomly-selected counties.
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Oregon's vote-by-mail system has resulted in much higher voter turnout and nearly fool-proof elections.
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It follows that the first step in calculating the True Vote is to estimate the number of uncounted votes.
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The Census Bureau surveys total votes cast in every election (the margin of error is less than 0.5%). We have the simple formula:
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Net Uncounted Vote = Census Total Votes Cast - Official Recorded Vote
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The Net Uncounted Vote is greater than zero when the number of uncounted votes exceeds the number of stuffed ballots.
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Net Uncounted Vote = Uncounted Votes – Stuffed ballots
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Key parameters in calculating the True Vote are a) the number of returning voters from the prior election, b) new voters
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and c) corresponding exit poll vote shares. In order to calculate a robust estimate of returning voters, we must consider the mathematical constraints.
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The number of returning voters must be less than the number who actually voted in the previous election.
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The Final National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires an impossible turnout of returning voters (exceeds the number still living).
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An estimated 5% of previous election voters pass on before each election (based on mortality tables).
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Turnout of previous election voters can be estimated from registered voter turnout.
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Historically, turnout has ranged from 90-98%, depending on voter interest in the election.
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Given voter mortality and estimated turnout of voters from the previous election, we can calculate an the number of returning voters.
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The number of new voters is the difference between total votes cast and returning voters.
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There are 5 calculation methods.
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Method 1:
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Final National Exit Poll
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The returning voter mix and vote shares are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
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The Final NEP return voter mix for the 1968, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections was impossible.
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In each election, the mix implied there was more than 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters.
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Method 2:
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Returning voters based on previous election Recorded vote
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Recorded – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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Given returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
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New voters = Total Votes Recorded in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (recorded)
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Calculating returning voters based on recorded votes understates the Democratic share as uncounted votes are excluded.
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This method is analogous to the exit pollsters designing a sample based on the previous election voting demographics.
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Method 3:
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Returning voters based on previous election Total Votes Cast:
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Returning voters = (Previous election Votes Cast – voter mortality) * Turnout rate
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Given the number of returning voters, we easily calculate the number of new voters in the current election:
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New voters = Total Votes Cast in the current election – Returning Voters from the previous election (cast)
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We aaproximate the number of returning voters for each candidate as follows:
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Democratic total votes cast in prior election = Democratic recorded vote + 75% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
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Republican total votes cast in prior election = Republican recorded vote + 25% of the uncounted votes in the previous election
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Method 4:
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Returning voters based on previous election unadjusted state exit poll aggregate
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