ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xWMqsvHapP3nwdSW8/my-views-on-doom
2
Probability
3
1%"Probability that humanity has somehow irreversibly messed up our future within 10 years of building powerful AI: 46%""Probability of an AI takeover: 22%""Probability that humans build AI systems that take over: 15%
(Including anything that happens before human cognitive labor is basically obsolete.)"
4
2%
5
3%
6
4%
7
5%
8
6%
9
7%
10
8%
11
9%"Probability that most humans die because of an AI takeover: 11%"

(Could shift up or down ~1-2 rows. Paul didn't specify.)		"Probability that most humans die within 10 years of building powerful
12
10%
13
11%
14
12%
15
13%
16
14%
17
15%
18
16%"Probability that the AI we build doesn’t take over, but that it builds even smarter AI and there is a takeover some day further down the line: 7%"
19
17%
20
18%
21
19%
22
20%
23
21%
24
22%
25
23%"Probability that most humans die for non-takeover reasons (e.g. more destructive war or terrorism) either as a direct consequence of building AI or during a period of rapid change shortly thereafter: 9%" AI (powerful enough to make human labor obsolete): 20%"
26
24%
27
25%
28
26%
29
27%
30
28%
31
29%
32
30%
33
31%
34
32%"Probability of messing it up in some other way during a period of accelerated technological change (e.g. driving ourselves crazy, creating a permanent dystopia, making unwise commitments…): 15%"
35
33%
36
34%
37
35%
38
36%
39
37%
40
38%
41
39%
42
40%
43
41%
44
42%
45
43%
46
44%
47
45%
48
46%
49
47%
50
48%
51
49%
52
50%
53
51%
54
52%
55
53%
56
54%
57
55%
58
56%
59
57%
60
58%
61
59%
62
60%
63
61%
64
62%
65
63%
66
64%
67
65%
68
66%
69
67%
70
68%
71
69%
72
70%
73
71%
74
72%
75
73%
76
74%
77
75%
78
76%
79
77%
80
78%
81
79%
82
80%
83
81%
84
82%
85
83%
86
84%
87
85%
88
86%
89
87%
90
88%
91
89%
92
90%
93
91%
94
92%
95
93%
96
94%
97
95%
98
96%
99
97%
100
98%