The approximate relationship between smoke and the deaths caused by nuclear famine

	A	B	C	D	E
1	General function structure:
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4
5
6
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8	To better understand the generalized logistic function, read more			here
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11	Parameter	Optimistic	Best Guess	Pessimistic	Parameter interpretation
12	K	7.5	7.5	7.5	upper asymptote; in this case, the world population, save Australia and New Zealand
13	B	0.15	0.17	0.28	the growth rate ; in this case, how steep the relationship between nuclear smoke and famine is. These are the main values I varied, as I'm most uncertain about this parameter.
14	A	-0.85	-6.5	-21	the lower asymptote; in this case, it's not particularly meaningful. I varied this parameter to accomodate variation in B, the growth rate.
15	v	2	6	15	affects near which asymptote maximum growth occurs; in this case, I varied this parameter to accomodate variation in B, the growth rate.
16	e	2.7183	2.7183	2.7183	Euler's number
17	Q	100	100	100	related to the value Y(0) (not meaningful here)
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22	Smoke (Tg)	Deaths — Optimistic	Deaths — Best Guess	Deaths — Pessimistic	Predicted in Academic Literature
23	0	-19,143,946	-12,543,282	-48,098,915
24	1	44,849,941	171,858,166	342,131,127
25	2	113,649,441	361,117,636	738,156,019
26	3	187,584,836	555,280,450	1,139,561,263
27	4	267,001,497	754,373,654	1,545,756,305
28	5	352,258,572	958,401,667	1,955,922,988	1,000,000,000
29	6	443,727,047	1,167,341,167	2,368,953,502
30	7	541,787,005	1,381,135,126	2,783,378,975
31	8	646,823,938	1,599,685,926	3,197,292,786
32	9	759,223,901	1,822,847,505	3,608,277,392
33	10	879,367,307	2,050,416,540	4,013,350,082
34	11	1,007,621,147	2,282,122,742	4,408,950,717
35	12	1,144,329,414	2,517,618,414	4,791,000,882
36	13	1,289,801,538	2,756,467,596	5,155,064,009
37	14	1,444,298,681	2,998,135,275	5,496,624,019
38	15	1,608,017,838	3,241,977,352	5,811,471,438
39	16	1,781,073,798	3,487,232,324	6,096,144,753
40	17	1,963,479,242	3,733,015,862	6,348,336,363
41	18	2,155,123,466	3,978,319,723	6,567,160,296
42	19	2,355,750,552	4,222,016,532	6,753,208,144
43	20	2,564,938,181	4,462,871,951	6,908,382,758
44	21	2,782,078,623	4,699,565,479	7,035,565,885
45	22	3,006,363,850	4,930,720,531	7,138,214,141
46	23	3,236,776,925	5,154,943,530	7,219,975,401
47	24	3,472,091,929	5,370,870,572	7,284,386,398
48	25	3,710,884,493	5,577,218,911	7,334,673,722
49	26	3,951,554,435	5,772,839,323	7,373,650,762
50	27	4,192,361,122	5,956,764,677	7,403,688,117
51	28	4,431,470,931	6,128,249,899	7,426,731,956
52	29	4,667,014,739	6,286,799,257	7,444,348,614
53	30	4,897,151,969	6,432,178,326	7,457,779,801
54	31	5,120,136,584	6,564,409,863	7,467,998,599
55	32	5,334,379,818	6,683,754,849	7,475,760,931
56	33	5,538,504,530	6,790,681,572	7,481,650,121
57	34	5,731,386,898	6,885,826,703	7,486,114,038
58	35	5,912,182,577	6,969,952,605	7,489,495,236
59	36	6,080,336,234	7,043,904,782	7,492,054,958
60	37	6,235,575,142	7,108,572,614	7,493,991,998
61	38	6,377,889,047	7,164,855,433	7,495,457,380
62	39	6,507,499,548	7,213,635,071	7,496,565,693
63	40	6,624,822,695	7,255,755,081	7,497,403,796
64	41	6,730,428,478	7,292,006,247	7,498,037,482
65	42	6,825,000,382	7,323,117,577	7,498,516,561
66	43	6,909,297,515	7,349,751,816	7,498,878,727
67	44	6,984,120,996	7,372,504,462	7,499,152,495
68	45	7,050,285,564	7,391,905,355	7,499,359,432
69	46	7,108,596,705	7,408,422,023	7,499,515,848
70	47	7,159,833,162	7,422,464,143	7,499,634,074
71	48	7,204,734,320	7,434,388,582	7,499,723,432
72	49	7,243,991,828	7,444,504,668	7,499,790,970
73	50	7,278,244,715	7,453,079,389	7,499,842,017	7,500,000,000
74	51	7,308,077,297	7,460,342,380	7,499,880,597
75	52	7,334,019,189	7,466,490,548	7,499,909,757
76	53	7,356,546,875	7,471,692,317	7,499,931,795
77	54	7,376,086,329	7,476,091,434	7,499,948,452
78	55	7,393,016,327	7,479,810,367	7,499,961,040
79	56	7,407,672,121	7,482,953,296	7,499,970,555
80	57	7,420,349,275	7,485,608,725	7,499,977,746
81	58	7,431,307,482	7,487,851,766	7,499,983,181
82	59	7,440,774,261	7,489,746,100	7,499,987,288
83	60	7,448,948,444	7,491,345,681	7,499,990,393
84	61	7,456,003,422	7,492,696,187	7,499,992,739
85	62	7,462,090,127	7,493,836,272	7,499,994,512
86	63	7,467,339,732	7,494,798,627	7,499,995,852
87	64	7,471,866,083	7,495,610,893	7,499,996,865
88	65	7,475,767,872	7,496,296,430	7,499,997,631
89	66	7,479,130,571	7,496,874,976	7,499,998,209
90	67	7,482,028,138	7,497,363,205	7,499,998,647
91	68	7,484,524,521	7,497,775,200	7,499,998,977
92	69	7,486,674,975	7,498,122,851	7,499,999,227
93	70	7,488,527,221	7,498,416,200	7,499,999,416
94	71	7,490,122,453	7,498,663,721	7,499,999,558
95	72	7,491,496,216	7,498,872,569	7,499,999,666
96	73	7,492,679,168	7,499,048,784	7,499,999,748
97	74	7,493,697,747	7,499,197,463	7,499,999,809
98	75	7,494,574,745	7,499,322,907	7,499,999,856
99	76	7,495,329,806	7,499,428,745	7,499,999,891
100	77	7,495,979,857	7,499,518,041	7,499,999,918