SENEDD PROJECTIONS and RESULTS.xls

	A	B	D	E	F	G	I	J	K	L	M	N
1
2	ALL WALES
3		3rd MRP	Results
4
5	PLAID	43	43
6	REFORM	34	34
7	LABOUR	12	9
8	CONS	4	7
9	GREENS	2	2
10	LIBDEMS	1	1
11
12	This simply demonstrates how accurate the Final MRP poll wsa in predicting total seats. Other than
13	how the two "old parties" (Labour and Tories) fared.
14
15	AFAN OGWR RHONDDA
16
17	YouGov MRP (1st)					D'Hont Simulator			Seats
18
19	1	PLAID	37%	(32%-42%)		Ist Seat	PLAID	37%	PLAID	3	12.33%	Per seat
20	2	REFORM	30%	(25%-35%)		2nd Seat	REFORM	30%	REFORM	2	15.00%	Per seat
21	3	LABOUR	12%	(9%-15%)		3rd Seat	PLAID	18.50%	LABOUR	1	12.00%	Per seat
22	4	GREEN	11%	(7%-15%)		4th Seat	REFORM	15%
23	5	CONS	4%	(3-6%)		5th Seat	PLAID	12.33%
24	6	OTHERS	4%	(2%-6%)		6th Seat	LABOUR	12%
25	7	LIBDEMS	2%	(1%-5%)		Next	GREENS	11%
26
27	YouGov MRP (2nd)					D'Hont Simulator			Seats
28
29	1	REFORM	36%	(31%-41%)	Plus 6%	Ist Seat	REFORM	36.00%	REFORM	3	12.00%	Per seat
30	2	PLAID	29%	(24%-34%)	Minus 8%	2nd Seat	PLAID	29.00%	PLAID	2	14.50%	Per seat
31	3	LABOUR	17%	(13%-22%)	Plus 5%	3rd Seat	REFORM	18.00%	LABOUR	1	17.00%	Per seat
32	4	GREENS	5%	(3%-8%)	Minus 6%	4th Seat	LABOUR	17.00%
33	5	OTHERS	5%	(3%-8%)	Plus 1%	5th Seat	PLAID	14.50%
34	6	CONS	4%	(3%-6%)	Same	6th Seat	REFORM	12.00%
35	7	LIBDEMS	4%	(2%-6%)	Plus 2%	Next	PLAID	9.67%
36
37	YouGov MRP (3rd)					D'Hont Simulator			Seats
38
39	1	REFORM	36%		Same	Ist Seat	REFORM	36%	REFORM	3	12%	Per seat
40	2	PLAID	35%		Plus 6%	2nd Seat	PLAID	35%	PLAID	2	18%	Per seat
41	3	LABOUR	12%		Minus 5%	3rd Seat	REFORM	18%	LABOUR	1	12%	Per seat
42	4	GREENS	7%		Plus 2%	4th Seat	PLAID	17.50%
43	5	CONS	3%		Minus 1%	5th Seat	LABOUR	12%
44	6	OTHERS	5%		Same	6th Seat	REFORM	12%
45	7	LIBDEMS	3%		Minus 1%	Next	PLAID	11.67%
46
47	Result								Seats
48
49	37%	PLAID	36.93%			Ist Seat	PLAID	36.93%	PLAID	3
50	34%	REFORM	33.63%			2nd Seat	REFORM	33.63%	REFORM	2
51	17%	LABOUR	16.74%			3rd Seat	PLAID	18.46%	LABOUR	1
52	4%	CONS	4.26%			4th Seat	REFORM	16.81%
53	4%	GREEN	3.85%			5th Seat	LABOUR	16.47%
54	3%	LIBEMS	2.71%			6th Seat	PLAID	12.31%
55	2%	OTHERS	1.88%			Next	REFORM	11.21%
56
57			100%
58
59	Note that Plaid gets one more seat than Reform, despite getting only 3% more of the vote.
60	No complaints, but demonstrates problems with this system.
61
62	BANGOR CONWY MON
63
64	YouGov MRP ( 1st)					D'Hont Simulator			Seats
65
66	1	PLAID	44%	(39%-49%)		Ist Seat	PLAID	44%	PLAID	3	14.66%	Per seat
67	2	REFORM	23%	(20%-27%)		2nd Seat	REFORM	23%	REFORM	2	11.50%	Per seat
68	3	GREEN	11%	(7%-14%)		3rd Seat	PLAID	22%	GREENS	1	11.00%	Per seat
69	4	CONS	9%	(6%-11%)		4th Seat	PLAID	14.67%
70	5	LABOUR	8%	(5%-10%)		5th Seat	REFORM	11.50%
71	6	LIBDEMS	4%	(2%-6%)		6th Seat	GREENS	11%
72	7	OTHERS	3%	(1%-4%)		Next	PLAID	11%
73
74
75	YouGov MRP (2nd)
76
77	1	PLAID	39%	(34%-44%)	Minus 5%	Ist Seat	PLAID	39%	PLAID	3	13.00%	Per seat
78	2	REFORM	28%	(24%-32%)	Plus 5%	2nd Seat	REFORM	28%	REFORM	2	14.00%	Per seat
79	3	CONS	10%	(8%-13%)	Plus 1%	3rd Seat	PLAID	19.56%	CONS	1	10.00%	Per seat
80	4	GREENS	9.00%	(6%-12%)	Minus 2%	4th Seat	REFORM	14%
81	5	LABOUR	7.00%	(4%-9%)	Minus 1%	5th Seat	PLAID	13%
82	6	LIBDEMS	5.00%	(3%-8%)	Plus 1%	6th Seat	CONS	10%
83	7	OTHERS	2.00%	(1%-4%)	Minus 1%	Next	PLAID	9.75%
84
85	YouGov MRP (3rd)					D'Hont Simulator			Seats
86
87	1	PLAID	46.00%		Plus 7%	Ist Seat	PLAID	46.00%	PLAID	4	11.50%	Per seat
88	2	REFORM	27.00%		Minus 1%	2nd Seat	REFORM	27.00%	REFORM	2	13.50%	Per seat
89	3	CONS	9.00%		Minus 1%	3rd Seat	PLAID	23.00%
90	4	LABOUR	7.00%		Same	4th Seat	PLAID	15.33%
91	5	GREENS	6.00%		Minus 3%	5th Seat	REFORM	13.50%
92	6	OTHERS	5.00%		Plus 3%	6th Seat	PLAID	11.50%
93	7	LIBDEMS	4.00%		Minus 1%	Next	PLAID	9.20%
94
95
96	Result								Seats
97
98	45%	PLAID	44.93%			Ist Seat	PLAID	44.93%	PLAID	3
99	28%	REFORM	28.12%			2nd Seat	REFORM	28.12%	REFORM	2
100	12%	CONS	12.38%			3rd Seat	PLAID	22.46%	CONS	1