Month 91 - Food and Agriculture Companies - Winter 2019 Update
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Companies Ranked by Finance Value (Column E)TickerReward = 10-Yr Total Return/YrRisk Aversion = 2018 Total Return (worst year of past 10 for S&P 500)Finance Value = Col C + Col D5-Yr Total Return/YrDiv Yield5-Yr Div Growth3-Yr BetaP/EBMW Method 16-Yr CAGR (Px only)Recent Px TrendBMW Method Est. Loss @ -2SDLT-Debt: Total AssetsTotal Debt: EBITDATBV:PxDiv:FCFS&P Bond RatingS&P Stock Rating (Stars)Px (50d avg)Shares BOTAmountNet Present Value at 10-Yr Holding Period with 10% Discount RateGraham NumberPx (50d avg): Graham Number7-Yr P/EInsider ActivityMorningstarMarket Cap ($B)Dividend Achiever
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Amazon.comAMZN42.1%119.1%161.2%33.1%0.0%0.0%1.839531.6%up 1SD42%29%289%1%no dividendAA-B-/M (4)$1,600.563$4,801.68$23,192.50$179.26893%821unfavorableundervalued$798
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Hormel FoodsHRL21.4%55.9%77.3%15.9%1.9%1.0%-0.122419.5%on trendline26%8%47%7%42%AA+/M (2)$43.90114$5,004.60$6,609.36$20.95210%33neutralovervalued$23yes
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Valero EnergyVLO16.8%44.4%61.2%13.4%4.0%28.9%1.14814.8%on trendline65%17%149%69%53%BBBB+/M (4)$78.1864$5,003.52$5,776.29$110.4671%13unfavorableundervalued$35
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Tyson FoodsTSN23.2%34.9%58.1%13.1%2.5%38.0%0.22713.0%on trendline49%27%234%-18%24%BBBA/H (3)$57.0488$5,019.52$4,413.61$80.2971%15favorableundervalued$22
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KrogerKR11.1%33.5%44.6%12.1%1.9%0.5%0.81711.4%on trendline40%32%319%11%75%BBBA-/L (3)$29.14172$5,012.08$971.02neg BV--18unfavorableundervalued$23yes
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Altria GroupMO16.8%23.9%40.7%9.8%6.6%10.3%0.16915.6%down 2SD30%30%141%-2%72%BBBA-/M (4)$53.2394$5,003.62$5,373.71$32.29175%17favorableundervalued$85yes
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Costco WholesaleCOST19.2%19.1%38.3%16.1%1.1%5.2%1.122914.6%on trendline25%17%117%13%32%A+A/L (3)$217.4423$5,001.12$2,960.36$70.40309%41unfavorablefairly valued$94yes
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S.J. SmuckerSJM12.0%25.6%37.6%4.0%3.3%7.9%0.36910.1%down 2SD27%30%987%-33%55%BBBA-/L (3)$103.0749$5,050.43$1,054.59$136.7575%18neutralundervalued$12yes
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McCormickMKC19.0%18.1%37.1%17.0%1.6%9.0%0.252113.9%up 1SD25%43%551%-25%37%BBBA+/L (4)$144.9834$4,929.32$2,368.11$59.82242%45neutralovervalued$18yes
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DowDuPontDWDP19.0%17.0%36.0%8.0%2.7%3.5%1.43656.4%on trendline49%16%331%6%79%A-B/M (5)$55.4790$4,992.30-$742.45$29.26189%19neutralNA$129
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IngredionINGR16.3%15.4%31.7%9.5%2.5%8.3%0.491613.4%down 2SD33%29%172%23%35%BBBA-/M (3)$98.1951$5,007.69$2,464.68$74.43132%17favorableundervalued$7
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PepsiCoPEP11.4%8.9%20.3%9.0%3.4%10.3%0.6328.4%on trendline19%41%305%-10%85%A+A-/L (5)$113.4844$4,993.12$433.52$23.84476%28neutralundervalued$155yes
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KelloggK6.0%13.7%19.7%2.6%3.8%4.0%0.64115.4%down 2SD18%48%210%-27%81%BBBA-/L (3)$60.3483$5,008.22-$722.87$32.39186%22neutralundervalued$20yes
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General MillsGIS7.3%12.0%19.3%1.2%4.6%5.2%0.67139.1%down 2SD24%41%480%-61%38%BBBA/L (4)$41.17121$4,981.57$998.13$29.25141%15neutralundervalued$26yes
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SyscoSYY13.8%5.4%19.2%14.5%2.5%6.1%0.76228.4%up 2SD35%42%266%-7%43%BBB+B+/L (3)$64.3178$5,016.18-$54.25$17.94358%35favorableovervalued$33yes
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Coca-ColaKO11.6%5.3%16.9%7.0%3.3%6.9%0.427210.4%down 1SD19%35%458%0%129%A+B+/L (5)$48.48103$4,993.44$1,103.18$7.98608%31unfavorablefairly valued$203yes
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DeereDE18.1%-11.1%7.0%15.8%1.9%8.3%0.772314.4%on trendline36%39%587%13%no FCFAB+/M (3)$149.6133$4,937.13$2,834.71$75.98197%21favorableundervalued$51
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FastenalFAST16.7%-11.5%5.2%7.4%3.0%11.5%1.292313.3%on trendline34%14%41%13%86%low DebtA/M (4)$54.8191$4,987.71$2,770.73$21.56254%30neutralovervalued$17yes
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HersheyHSY15.2%-11.8%3.4%4.3%2.7%8.3%0.1229.7%on trendline36%37%158%-1%83%AA/L (3)$107.0947$5,033.23$656.53$25.33423%34favorablefairly valued$23
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Canadian National RailwayCNI19.8%-16.7%2.1%10.8%1.6%-0.2%0.931415.9%down 1SD33%23%158%28%59%AA+/M (4)$80.1762$4,970.54$3,548.39$48.95164%19unfavorablefairly valued$59
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Berkshire HathawayBRK-B13.5%-11.5%2.0%12.2%0.0%0.0%0.8589.7%up 1SD24%12%295%43%no dividendAAB+/L (3)$205.2024$4,924.80-$377.83$293.5270%23neutralundervalued$494
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CaterpillarCAT16.5%-23.3%-6.8%12.0%2.6%7.5%1.552211.0%on trendline41%31%409%7%87%AB+/M (4)$127.5039$4,972.50$1,211.89$61.66207%29neutralundervalued$78yes
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Union PacificUNP25.4%-32.5%-7.1%16.1%2.1%0.3%1.061021.1%on trendline29%28%167%21%86%A-A/M (3)$146.2534$4,972.50$8,211.46$97.90149%24neutralundervalued$114yes
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WalmartWMT9.8%-26.7%-16.9%8.0%2.2%2.0%0.52567.7%up 1SD23%18%145%21%33%AAA-/L (4)$95.3052$4,955.60-$504.53$31.20306%21unfavorableundervalued$283yes
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Archer Daniels MidlandADM7.6%-27.7%-20.1%4.2%3.1%12.0%0.81117.5%on trendline37%17%364%56%no FCFAB+/M (4)$44.22113$4,996.86$77.60$55.4480%17unfavorablefairly valued$23yes
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Averagen = 2516.4%11.2%27.5%11.1%2.6%7.8%0.752512.7%on trendline33%28%295%6%63%A-A-/M (4)$152.77$4,990.32$2,985.14$67.37249%56neutralfairly valued$11316/25
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BENCHMARKS
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SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY13.0%1.3%14.3%8.4%2.0%8.8%1146.2%on trendline31%$262.1119$4,980.09-$679.07$269
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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETFDIA13.0%0.1%13.1%9.5%2.2%8.8%1146.3%up 1SD27%$243.1821$5,106.78-$582.65$22
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Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFBND3.1%0.4%3.5%2.5%2.8%3.5%1.03NA3.7%down 2SD8%$78.6164$5,031.04-$1,331.48$201
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VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETFMOO9.3%-8.9%0.4%3.2%1.5%0.7%0.84161.4%NANA$60.0983$4,987.47-$2,324.92$1
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UBS Bloomberg Commodity Total Return ETNDJCI0.0%-26.0%-26.0%-9.5%0.0%0.0%0.76NA-5.2%on trendline33%$14.93335$5,001.55-$3,871.43$0
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Averagen = 57.7%-6.6%1.1%2.8%1.7%4.4%0.93152.5%on trendline25%$131.78$5,021.39-$1,757.91$99
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Consumer Price Indexcpi1.6%1.1%
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Updated 1/23/2019
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