Historical Presidential Polling Misses
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1
State
D-R Ave (Pollster)
D-R (Final)Polling Error
Difference from National
Inclusion?Data
2
National1.50%3.90%2.40%0.00%0
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Virginia1.90%3.87%1.97%0.03%1-0.43%0.02
4
Ohio3.40%2.98%-0.42%0.92%1-2.82%1.01
5
Colorado1.70%5.37%3.67%1.47%11.27%0.76
6
Pennsylvania5.70%5.39%-0.31%1.49%1-2.71%0.96
7
New Hampshire
2.50%5.58%3.08%1.68%10.68%0.50
8
Iowa1.50%5.81%4.31%1.91%11.91%1.03
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Nevada3.60%6.68%3.08%2.78%10.68%0.50
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Florida0.00%0.88%0.88%3.02%1-1.52%0.45
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Wisconsin4.60%6.94%2.34%3.04%1-0.06%0.18
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Minnesota7.50%7.69%0.19%3.79%1-2.21%0.75
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Michigan6.60%9.50%2.90%5.60%10.50%0.42
14
North Carolina-1.60%-2.04%-0.44%5.94%1-2.84%1.02
15
New Mexico8.10%10.15%2.05%6.25%1-0.35%0.06
16
Oregon5.80%12.09%6.29%8.19%13.89%1.89
17
Washington12.60%14.87%2.27%10.97%1-0.13%0.15
18
Maine (at-large)
11.40%15.29%3.89%11.39%11.49%0.85
19
Georgia-8.70%-7.82%0.88%11.72%1-1.52%0.45
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Arizona-7.60%-9.06%-1.46%12.96%1-3.86%1.46
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Illinois18.50%16.87%-1.63%12.97%1-4.03%1.54
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Missouri-9.00%-9.38%-0.38%13.28%1-2.78%0.99
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Connecticut12.80%17.33%4.53%13.43%12.13%1.13
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New Jersey11.30%17.81%6.51%13.91%14.11%1.98
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Indiana-10.20%-10.20%0.00%14.10%1-2.40%0.83-0.48%
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South Carolina-10.47%14.37%2.31%
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Delaware18.63%14.73%-0.66
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Mississippi-11.50%15.40%
29
Montana-13.65%17.55%65.2%
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Alaska-13.99%17.89%0
31
California23.12%19.22%
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Massachusetts23.14%19.24%
33
Texas-15.78%19.68%
34
Louisiana-17.21%21.11%
35
South Dakota-18.02%21.92%
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Maryland26.08%22.18%
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North Dakota-19.63%23.53%
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Rhode Island27.46%23.56%
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New York28.18%24.28%
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Tennessee-20.40%24.30%
41
Kansas-21.72%25.62%
42
Nebraska -21.78%25.68%
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Alabama-22.19%26.09%
44
Kentucky-22.69%26.59%
45
Arkansas-23.69%27.59%
46
West Virginia-26.76%30.66%
47
Vermont35.60%31.70%
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Idaho-31.91%35.81%
49
Oklahoma-33.54%37.44%
50
Hawaii42.71%38.81%
51
Wyoming-40.82%44.72%
52
Utah-48.04%51.94%
53
D.C.83.63%79.73%
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