EclipseAviationCritic Projections
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99CY2007 Deliveries as of31-Dec-2007
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Eclipse 500 Production Milestones159CY2008 Deliveries as of31-Dec-2008
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EclipseAviationCritic ran a contest to see who could most accurately predict CY2008 deliveries for Eclipse. Deliveries = Transfer of registration as recorded in FAA Registry Website
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CY2007 Prediction CY2008 CofA Prediction CY2009 CofA Prediction1 / day Production Rate1.5 / day Production Rate2 / day Production Rate3 / day Production Rate4 / day Production Rate1,500 / Yr Production RateRussian Plant
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Official Eclipse Plan - April 20061,000Dec 2006Dec 2007
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Official Eclipse Plan - November 2006515
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Official Eclipse Plan - April 2007402925Jun 2007Sep 2007Dec 2007
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Official Eclipse Plan - June 2007216747Aug 2007Apr 2008Dec 2008
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Official Eclipse Plan - July 2007over 200
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Vern quoted in Flight International - Oct 2007every position on the production line can run at a rate of at least one aircraft a day. "Have we got all of them to run at that rate at the same time? Not yet," Raburn says.Raburn says. "But our analysis shows we can get to one-and-a-half to two a day."
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Official Eclipse Plan - Oct 2007a little over 100530 - 650Jan 2008Apr 2008Dec 2008?
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Official Eclipse Plan - Nov 2007more than 100CY 2011
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Official Eclipse Plan - Jan 200898455810Apr 2008Dec 2008
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Mar 2008 - Eclipse Deposit callSN 469 in November
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Official Eclipse Plan - March 11, 2008 (Matt Brown FAA Presentation)Apr 2008Dec 2008"Challenges remain"
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Official Eclipse Plan - May 200898"Easily get to 100 Eclipse 500s a month"Plant opens 2009http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/05/12/223612/a-mountain-too-high.html
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Official Eclipse Plan - May 20081st Delivery Q4 2009http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/eclipses-plan-for-russia-moves-toward-production/
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Official Eclipse Plan - June 200850 aircraft 2009
800 aircraft 2010
http://www.integrum.com/ArticlesByCategoryPage.aspx?oid=541
All materials except engines and avionics will be produced in Russia
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Official Eclipse Plan - July 20085 months from now
Jan 2009
1.7 to 1.8 deliverieis per day required to achieve breakevenhttp://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/07/31/226251/oshkosh-2008-the-new-order-at-eclipse-is-buoyant-about-the.html
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Official Eclipse Plan - August 2008200 - 250AIN article
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Official Eclipse Plan - August 22, 2008163145 already delivered this year + 1 / week for the remainder of the year
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Official Eclipse Plan - Sept, 2008SN 266 delivered in Dec 08
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Blogger's Name
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i am not vern0
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niner zulu35
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jetprop jockey36
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a37pilot38
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Freedomsjamtarts3939NeverNeverNever
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metal guy40
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shane price4242
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jeta145
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flightguy50
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oldtroll50
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algernon53
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cherokee driver54
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plastic_planes56
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gunner5712/31/2007
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forward-observer58225Oct 2007Oct 2008Never
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black dog64
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buckerfan68
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big jim70
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sparky73
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mouse75
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coldwetmackarelofreality84
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bonanza pilot90
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hiflyer97
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black tulip99
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airtaximan105
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yulilgit112
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Stan120
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bill e. goat232
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cj3driver130240
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flightcenter131250
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flyger250
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flightfollowing150
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aeroobserver158
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green or red167
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Boenning & Scattergood170
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eclipseblogger176
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execlipse180
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lloyd185
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mirage00188
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andy199
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alexa200
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jewelrycasa185
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baron95300
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bob300
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Mean99183
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Median80232
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Standard Deviation5597
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ken meyer10x 2007 Mustang production.I think that in the next 12 months, Eclipse will produce about ten times the entire 2007 Mustang production! That's impressive. - Ken - 8:31 AM, November 24, 2007
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20yearmechanic95210
Nov 2008when they fire Todd, Randy and the rest of that managment teamwhen they fire Todd, Randy and the rest of that managment team
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2007 Delivery Contest Rules
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1. CY2007 Delivery predictions will be closed at midnight PST on June 30, 2007.
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2. Prize will be awarded to the blogger whose prediction most closely matches the FAA registry database on February 15, 2008.
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3. Award will be announced on http://eclipseaviationcritic.blogspot.com on February 15, 2008.
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Production Milestones
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Aircraft / Cert Milestones
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