Discover Calculator w/Math Proof v5.0
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Spreadsheet Information
Discover Probability Calculator
2
3
Author/u/MetronomeBVersion5.0DiscussionReddit Thread
Please input your scenario in the yellow cells below (Note: drop-down menus).
4
5
Table of ContentsFormatStandard
6
Sheet 1: Probability Calculator
Discover Card
Netherspite Historian
7
Sheet 2: Card Count DatabaseClassPriest
8
Sheet 3: Mathematical DocumentationNeutral Outs1
9
Class Outs2
10
Color CodingClass Weight4
11
User Defined VariableStatic VariableResult
Neutral Cards
18
12
Class Cards3
13
How To Use
14
Make a copy of the spreadsheet in order to gain access ([File] -> [Make a copy...]). Requires log-in.P(outs>0) (Probability of hitting any of your outs)68.22%
15
Use the drop-down menus in the yellow cells to select Format and Discover Card.
16
Class will be automatically suggested upon selection of Discover Card; change if necessary.
17
Input number of Neutral/Class Outs. Results are updated automatically within seconds.Average amount of class cards discovered1.11
18
19
FAQ
20
Q: What about the rest of the Discover cards?Probability of getting a specific neutral card10.49%
21
A: Several Discover cards are unaffected by the weighting of class cards due to the non-existence of
22
neutral spells/hero powers (e.g. Primordial Glyph) and thus omitted from this calculator. Calculations
23
related to these cards follow the same rules/distribution as cards like Arcane Intellect etc.Probability of getting a specific class card37.09%
24
25
Q: How are these results calculated? Where are the formulas?
26
A: Most of the calculations happen in the apps script bound to this spreadsheet. This is the GoogleProbability of getting at least 1 class card79.90%
27
equivalent of macros in Excel. To view the script, go to [Tools] -> [Script Editor...]. Mathematical
28
documentation can be found in sheet #3; 'Math' (active sheet may be changed in the bottom taskbar).
29
Probability of getting all class cards2.24%
30
Q: It's not working?
31
A: Try deleting your copy and creating a new one. Only the yellow cells are meant to be edited.
32
33
Q: What are "outs"?
34
A: Outs is poker terminology. A set of cards can be viewed as consisting of two subsets - the set of
35
cards that grant you "success" if drawn, and the set of cards that don't. The former are your outs.
36
37
Changelog
38
v1.011.23.2015Spreadsheet release.
39
v1.111.24.2015Hotfix addressing an issue with Google's spreadsheet platform.
40
v2.009.04.2016Updated to reflect Old Gods and Karazhan releases.
41
v3.004.05.2017Updated to reflect Gadgetzan and Un'Goro releases.
42
v3.104.06.2017Overhauled all text to be up-to-date.
43
v3.208.10.2017Updated to reflect patch 8.4 Elemental tag changes.
44
v4.008.10.2017Updated to reflect The Frozen Throne release.
45
v4.112.07.2017Bugfix: Tri-class cards no longer incorrectly counted as neutral cards.
46
v5.012.07.2017Updated to reflect the Kobolds and Catacombs release.
47
48
Example Use Case 1
49
Q: Jim's opponent just got a clutch Tirion off of Stonehill Defender. How lucky was the opponent?
50
A: Select appropriate Format, Card and Class. See "Probability of getting a specific class card"
51
-- Note: Setting Neutral Outs to 0 and Class Outs to 1 results in P(outs>0) yielding the same result.
52
53
Example Use Case 2
54
Q: Alice is 1 damage off lethal as Murloc Paladin. How likely is Primalfin Lookout to discover lethal?
55
-- 5 (standard) Murlocs grant 1+ damage; all are neutral: Oracle, Sniper, Warrior, Hunter, Warleader.
56
-- Assuming Alice has a Bluegill Warrior in hand, being her only Murloc, Grimscale Chum is also an out.
57
A: Select Format, Card and Class. Set Neutral Outs to 5 and Class Outs to 1. See P(outs>0)
58
59
Example Use Case 3 (Warning! Advanced shit ahead!)
60
Q: When Lookout fails to discover lethal, how likely is Alice to tie with Hydrologist into Eye f.a. Eye?
61
A: From Use Case 2 we know that Alice discovers lethal 70.33% of the time, meaning she fails 29.67%
62
of the time. Now we want to calculate the proportion of ties and losses within those 29.67%. This is a
63
2-step process. First - How likely is Alice to discover Hydrologist when lethal fails? Secondly - How
64
likely is Hydrologist to discover Eye f.a. Eye? The Latter is easy to calculate: There are 5 Standard
65
Paladin secrets, meaning Hydrologist discovers EfaE 3/5 = 60% of the time. The former require us to
66
calculate the odds of discovering a specific class card in the hypothetical scenario where the 6 original
67
outs no longer exists in the draw pool. In order to achieve this we have to adjust the card counts
68
automatically provided by the card DB as static variables (blue cells). We reduce the neutral card count
69
from 14 to 9, and the class card count from 4 to 3. Finally we set Neutral Outs to 0 and Class Outs to 1.
70
We learn that Hydrologist is discovered 52.30% of the 29.67% of times Alice failed to discover lethal,
71
which in turn results in a tie 60% of the time. 0.6 * 0.523 = 31.38% - the proportion of ties within the
72
29.67% of time that lethal failed to be found, meaning the game is lost 68.62% of the time lethal failed
73
to be found. Finally we have the complete knowledge of the expected value of Alice' proposed play:
74
Playing Primalfin Lookout results in a win 70.33% of the time, a tie 0.2967 * 0.3138 = 9.38% of the time,
75
and a loss 0.2967 * 0.6862 = 20.36% of the time.
76
77
Example Use Case 4 (Warning! Memes ahead!)
78
Q: xRoachboyx is grinding rank 26 with his dank burgle Rogue deck when he happens to queue into an
79
Explore Un'Goro Warrior. "LOL, playing a worse Renounce Darkness in 2017, what a scrub. This'll be
80
over quick." He proceeds to start his crusade of theft and robbery, never forgetting a single obligatory
81
"Thank you."-emote as he gathers cards from his opponent's class. Putting in the hours to get the
82
Maiev Shadowsong Rogue hero was worth it, afterall. Suddenly, the most magical of things occurs:
83
Having stolen a Choose Your Path card (the discover tokens produced by Explore Un'Goro), he finds
84
himself looking at a perfect trifecta of exactly the 3 Rager's left in Standard offered as the discover
85
options. Wasting no time, he uploads a screenshot of the event to Imgur and proceeds to post on
86
Reddit's /r/Hearthstone. It doesn't even take 5 minutes for the post to reach the front page of the
87
subreddit. A distinct distaste for personal hygiene isn't the only thing the wretched, lost, souls of
88
/hearthstone/new/ share with Gollum - they also share his flare for preciously rare RNG. 6 minutes in,
89
the first comment appears. User Ayachan69 proclaims "wooow, that's amazing!!1 what are the odds??!"
90
User KarmaWhore123, always lurking /new/ ready to pounce at a chance for some of that juicy, juicy,
91
karma, eyes an opportunity. He Google's "discover probability" and finds this very calculator, but finds
92
himself in a peculiar position - how can he use it to calculate this very scenario?! Unable to come up
93
with a solution, he simply inputs some random numbers and posts a reply to Ayachan69, selling one of
94
the results off as the actual probability and making sure to cite the calculator as his source. If there's
95
one thing his years of karma whoring has taught him, it's that Reddit users get particularily wet
96
whenever a comment cites a source. Not like anyone cares to verify anyways. Their comments quickly
97
garners hundreds of upvotes from unsuspecting Redditors, and it doesn't take long for the upvote count
98
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy in and of it's own; users assuming the vote count indicates others
99
have already verified Karmawhore123's assertions; proceeding to further fuel the upvotes. An hour
100
passes, when suddenly another peculiar event occurs - someone actually thinks to check the solution.
Loading...
 
 
 
Calculator
Card DB
Math