Illustrative DCF: Revenue Exit
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Facebook, Inc.$117.59
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5-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit
7/13/2016
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Model Summary
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Range
Conclusion
Fair Value
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LowHigh$108.90
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Cost of Capital11.0%10.0%10.5%
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Terminal Revenue Multiple5.5x6.5x6.0x
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Fair Value 100.10 118.03 108.90
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Upside-14.9%0.4%-7.4%
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5-Yr Period
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Revenue 5Y CAGR28.6%
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EBITDA 5Y CAGR38.0%
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Unlevered FCF 5Y CAGR48.7%
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5Y Average EBITDA Margin63.7%
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5Y Average Unlevered FCF Margin
27.9%
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Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
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Input Projections
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Fiscal Years EndingDec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20
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Revenue17,92826,72535,70845,08654,23963,117
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% Growth43.8%49.1%33.6%26.3%20.3%16.4%
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EBITDA8,17016,59822,40829,20434,80440,854
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% of Revenue45.6%62.1%62.8%64.8%64.2%64.7%
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Select Capital Expenditures Forecast
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Input Projections
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Fiscal Years EndingDec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20
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Capital Expenditures2,5234,5984,9245,6546,6406,312
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% of Revenue14.1%17.2%13.8%12.5%12.2%10.0%
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Fiscal Years EndingYTD
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Historical SpendingDec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Mar-16
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Capital Expenditures6061,2351,3621,8312,5231,132
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% of Revenue16.3%24.3%17.3%14.7%14.1%
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5-Year Average17.3%
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Select Net Working Capital Forecast
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Input Projections
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Fiscal Years EndingDec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20
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Net Working Capital1,3002,4053,2144,0584,8825,681
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% of Revenue7.3%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%
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NWC Investment(1,105)(808)(844)(824)(799)
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Fiscal Years EndingLatest
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Historical SpendingDec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Mar-16
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Total Current Assets4,60411,26713,07013,39021,65223,812
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(-) Cash and Equivalents(1,512)(2,384)(3,323)(4,315)(4,907)(6,456)
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(-) Short Term Investments(2,396)(7,242)(8,126)(6,884)(13,527)(14,165)
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(-) Total Current Liab.(899)(1,052)(1,100)(1,424)(1,925)(1,809)
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(+) Current Portion of Debt27936523911470
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Net Working Capital769547608811,3001,382
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% of Revenue2.0%18.7%9.7%7.1%7.3%
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Average9.0%
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NWC Investment(878)194(121)(419)(82)
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Select Depreciation & Amortization Forecast
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Input Projections
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Fiscal Years EndingDec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20
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Depreciation & Amortization2,6723,5714,5095,4246,312
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% of Revenue10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
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Fiscal Years EndingYTD
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Historical SpendingDec-11Dec-12Dec-13Dec-14Dec-15Mar-16
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Depreciation & Amortization3236491,0111,2431,945552
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% of Revenue8.7%12.8%12.8%10.0%10.8%
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Average11.0%
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Select a Pro forma Tax Rate
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