Special elections for US House & state legislatures since Trump's election
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1
#YearElection dateSTDistrictFed/ StHeld ByWonPty changeDROthTotalD %R %D marginClintonTrump2016 MarginSpec- '16 Dem Margin Dif.ObamaRomney2012 marginSpec- '12 Dem Margin Dif.Weighted margin 12-16Spec- Weighted Dem Margin Dif.OfficialSourcecheck
2
1201612/27/2016IASD-45SDD03803131578519673.2%25.3%47.9%54.9%38.3%16.6%31.3%67.8%31.0%36.8%11.1%21.7%26.23%Yes
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/ss45results.pdf
TRUE
3
220171/10/2017VASD-22SRR0102261371319032584239.6%53.1%-13.5%40.6%54.8%-14.2%0.7%44.9%53.6%-8.7%-4.8%-12.8%-0.67%Yes
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20January%20GA%20Specials/Site/GeneralAssembly.html
TRUE
4
320171/10/2017VAHD-085SRR0293933017624747.0%52.8%-5.8%46.5%47.1%-0.6%-5.2%49.1%49.4%-0.3%-5.5%-0.5%-5.27%Yes
http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20January%20GA%20Specials/Site/GeneralAssembly.html
TRUE
5
420171/31/2017IAHD-089SDD020817849287472.4%27.3%45.1%52.5%40.9%11.6%33.5%63.2%35.8%27.4%17.7%15.6%29.58%Yes
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2017/SpecialSH89/sh89results.pdf
TRUE
6
520172/14/2017MNHD-32BSRR0332737893711946.7%53.2%-6.5%31.5%60.7%-29.2%22.7%43.0%55.1%-12.1%5.6%-24.9%18.44%No
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/Results/StateRepresentative/103?districtid=418
TRUE
7
620172/25/2017DESD-10SDD0731551271391258158.1%40.8%17.4%54.0%40.5%13.4%4.0%58.6%39.9%18.7%-1.3%14.7%2.64%Yes
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect17/elect17_special_ncc_sd10/html/election.shtml
TRUE
8
720172/28/2017CTHD-115SDD0197310930306664.4%35.6%28.7%57.5%38.8%18.7%10.0%69.1%29.8%39.3%-10.6%23.9%4.85%Yes
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?a=3179&q=590632
TRUE
9
820172/28/2017CTSD-32SRR08401101603121887344.5%53.8%-9.3%38.7%57.4%-18.7%9.4%43.2%55.6%-12.4%3.1%-17.1%7.80%Yes
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?a=3179&q=590632
TRUE
10
920172/28/2017CTSD-02SDD070342401368980371.8%24.5%47.3%83.5%13.7%69.8%-22.5%85.4%14.0%71.4%-24.1%70.2%-22.94%Yes
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp?a=3179&q=590632
TRUE
11
1020174/11/2017KSKS-04FRR05643564044211512259446.0%52.2%-6.2%33.0%60.2%-27.2%21.0%36.1%61.6%-25.5%19.3%-26.8%20.57%Yes
http://www.kssos.org/elections/17elec/2017_Special_Election_Official_Results.pdf
TRUE
12
1120174/25/2017CTHD-068SRR068624440313021.9%78.1%-56.2%31.8%64.7%-32.9%-23.3%38.4%60.4%-22.0%-34.2%-30.2%-25.99%Yes
http://ctemspublic.pcctg.net/#/races
TRUE
13
1220175/9/2017OKHD-028SRR01165122133241948.2%50.5%-2.3%23.0%72.6%-49.6%47.2%31.3%68.7%-37.4%35.1%-46.5%44.20%Yes
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/20170509_seb.html
TRUE
14
1320175/16/2017GASD-32 ROSRR0140571861903267643.0%57.0%-14.0%40.4%54.5%-14.1%0.1%31%67%-36.0%22.0%-19.6%5.61%Yes
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/69574/Web02-state/#/
TRUE
15
1420175/23/2017NYSD-30SDD08106287499889291.2%3.2%87.9%93.7%4.0%89.7%-1.8%95.3%3.8%91.5%-3.6%90.2%-2.22%Yes
https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/Elections/2017/Special/30thSDSpecialElectionResults.pdf
TRUE
16
1520175/23/2017NYAD-009SRD158374340141019157.3%42.6%14.7%36.9%60.0%-23.1%37.8%43.4%55.5%-12.1%26.8%-20.4%35.04%Yes
https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/Elections/2017/Special/9thADSpecialElectionResults.pdf
TRUE
17
1620175/23/2017NHHD-Carroll 06SRD18117550156651.8%48.2%3.6%44.1%51.3%-7.2%10.8%43.3%56.0%-12.7%16.3%-8.6%12.15%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589965946
TRUE
18
1720175/23/2017NHHD-Hillsborough 44SRR05366570119344.9%55.1%-10.1%43.3%51.8%-8.5%-1.6%48.0%50.8%-2.8%-7.3%-7.1%-3.07%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589968922
TRUE
19
1820175/25/2017MTMT-ALFRR01692141905202168238141644.4%50.0%-5.6%35.9%56.5%-20.6%15.0%41.7%55.4%-13.7%8.1%-18.9%13.29%Yes
http://mtelectionresults.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
TRUE
20
1920175/30/2017SCHD-084SRR0959148291253237.9%58.5%-20.7%31.3%65.3%-34.0%13.3%34.8%64.2%-29.4%8.7%-32.8%12.19%Yes
https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-84-special-election
TRUE
21
2020176/15/2017TNHD-95SRR017373099169500534.7%61.9%-27.2%28.5%67.8%-39.3%12.1%23.4%75.8%-52.4%25.2%-42.6%15.38%Yes
https://sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com/TNH95GeneralTotals.pdf
TRUE
22
2120176/20/2017GAGA-06 ROFRR0125517134799026031648.2%51.8%-3.6%46.8%48.3%-1.5%-2.1%37.5%60.8%-23.3%19.7%-7.0%3.38%Yes
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/70059/Web02-state/#/
TRUE
23
2220176/20/2017SCSC-05FRR042341450768998831647.9%51.0%-3.1%38.8%57.3%-18.5%15.4%43.6%55.1%-11.5%8.4%-16.8%13.65%Yes
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/68145/187890/en/summary.html
TRUE
24
2320176/20/2017SCHD-048SRR02881445211734439.2%60.6%-21.4%35.1%59.4%-24.3%2.9%35.7%62.6%-26.9%5.5%-25.0%3.56%Yes
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/68145/187890/en/summary.html
TRUE
25
2420176/20/2017SCHD-070SDD025227053323078.1%21.8%56.3%70.0%27.1%42.9%13.4%73.9%25.2%48.7%7.6%44.4%11.90%Yes
http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/68145/187890/en/summary.html
TRUE
26
2520177/11/2017OKSD-44SRD1197516440361954.6%45.4%9.1%37.1%55.7%-18.6%27.8%39.1%60.9%-21.7%30.9%-19.4%28.54%Yes
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/20170711_seb.html
TRUE
27
2620177/11/2017OKHD-075SRD110739770205052.3%47.7%4.7%36.1%58.0%-21.9%26.6%36.5%63.6%-27.1%31.8%-23.2%27.91%Yes
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/20170711_seb.html
TRUE
28
2720177/18/2017NHHD-Merrimack 18SDD028482036677.6%22.4%55.2%58.8%37.3%21.5%33.7%60.8%37.5%23.3%31.9%21.9%33.27%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/SpecElectMerr18.aspx
TRUE
29
2820177/25/2017NHSD-16SDD047513817109867754.8%44.0%10.8%47.7%47.4%0.3%10.4%49.0%50.0%-1.1%11.8%0.0%10.79%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589969632
TRUE
30
2920178/8/2017IAHD-082SDD040623356133755153.8%44.4%9.3%36.5%57.8%-21.2%30.6%49.7%47.9%1.8%7.5%-15.5%24.80%Yes
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2017/SpecialSH82/sh82results.pdf
TRUE
31
3020178/8/2017MOSD-28SRR04539977101431031.7%68.3%-36.6%30.2%67.6%-37.4%0.8%39.0%56.5%-17.5%-19.1%-32.4%-4.15%Yeshttp://enr.sos.mo.gov/TRUE
32
3120178/8/2017MOHD-050SRR0343937410718047.9%52.1%-4.2%37.7%60.0%-22.4%18.1%45.4%49.9%-4.4%0.2%-17.9%13.67%Yeshttp://enr.sos.mo.gov/TRUE
33
3220178/22/2017RISD-13SDD02217130999362561.2%36.1%25.0%65.3%29.5%35.8%-10.8%64.9%33.2%31.7%-6.7%34.8%-9.73%Yes
http://www.elections.state.ri.us/publications/Election_Publications/Election_Info/LocalElections/8-22-17_Senate_13.pdf
TRUE
34
3320179/5/2017NHHD-Grafton 09SRR056261328120346.7%51.0%-4.2%39.6%54.9%-15.4%11.1%49.7%48.2%1.5%-5.7%-11.1%6.90%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589971162
TRUE
35
3420179/12/2017NHHD-Belknap 09SRD1126810100227855.7%44.3%11.3%39.2%55.6%-16.4%27.8%49.8%49.4%0.4%10.9%-12.2%23.56%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589971163
TRUE
36
3520179/12/2017OKHD-046SRD1317920820526160.4%39.6%20.9%41.3%51.7%-10.3%31.2%40.3%59.7%-19.5%40.3%-12.6%33.46%Yes
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/20170912_seb.html
TRUE
37
3620179/26/2017FLSD-40SRD122656209878204446351.0%47.2%3.8%57.6%39.8%17.9%-14.1%Yes
https://results.elections.myflorida.com/Specials.asp?ElectionDate=9/26/2017&DATAMODE=
TRUE
38
3720179/26/2017FLHD-116SRR04581880001338134.2%65.8%-31.5%50.9%46.4%4.5%-36.0%44.5%55.0%-10.6%-21.0%0.7%-32.25%Yes
https://results.elections.myflorida.com/Specials.asp?ElectionDate=9/26/2017&DATAMODE=
TRUE
39
3820179/26/2017NHHD-Rockingham 04SRD190186241180449.9%47.8%2.2%36.0%58.9%-22.9%25.1%39.0%60.0%-21.0%23.2%-22.4%24.59%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=8589971336
TRUE
40
3920179/26/2017SCHD-31SDD010991092121090.8%9.0%81.8%72.4%24.4%47.9%33.9%79.2%19.9%59.3%22.6%50.8%31.06%Yes
https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-31-special-election
TRUE
41
40201710/10/2017FLHD-044SRR05529693701246644.4%55.6%-11.3%51.2%45.1%6.2%-17.5%45.8%53.5%-7.7%-3.6%2.7%-13.99%Yes
https://results.elections.myflorida.com/Specials.asp?ElectionDate=10/10/2017&DATAMODE=
TRUE
42
41201710/17/2017MASD-Bristol & NorfolkSDD06985640613721476347.3%43.4%3.9%52.5%41.2%11.3%-7.4%50.4%48.2%2.2%1.7%9.0%-5.11%Yes
http://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/search/year_from:2017/year_to:2017/office_id:9/district_id:23602/stage:General
TRUE
43
42201710/24/2017NHHD-Strafford 13SDD0319593140978.0%14.4%63.6%66.8%26.3%40.5%23.0%68.7%29.0%39.7%23.8%40.3%23.25%Yes
http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589970924
TRUE
44
43201711/7/2017GAHD-117 BPSRD1399535250752053.1%46.9%6.3%46.1%49.4%-3.4%9.6%No
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/71426/Web02-state/#/cid/61700
TRUE
45
44201711/7/2017MEHD-056SRR086811800204842.4%57.6%-15.2%35.4%57.0%-21.6%6.3%50.1%46.8%3.3%-18.6%-15.4%0.12%No
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/ME_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
TRUE
46
45201711/7/2017MAHD-Berkshire 01SDD0497614780645477.1%22.9%54.2%64.8%28.9%35.9%18.3%76.0%22.0%54.0%0.2%40.4%13.78%No
http://wamc.org/post/john-barrett-going-state-house
TRUE
47
46201711/7/2017MAHD-Essex 03SDD0388934030729253.3%46.7%6.7%54.7%39.4%15.2%-8.6%58.3%40.1%18.3%-11.6%16.0%-9.34%No
http://www.whav.net/cms/andy-vargas-triumphs-over-shaun-toohey-in-haverhill-state-representative-race/
TRUE
48
47201711/7/2017MIHD-001SDD0726625513341015171.6%25.1%46.4%74.5%22.9%51.6%-5.2%76.1%23.5%52.6%-6.2%51.9%-5.43%No
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/election-results/michigan-1st-state-house-district-nov-7-2017-general-election-results
TRUE
49
48201711/7/2017MIHD-109SDD01119783622661982556.5%42.2%14.3%44.8%48.8%-4.1%18.4%53.3%45.4%7.9%6.5%-1.1%15.39%No
http://www.miningjournal.net/news/2017/11/cambensy-replaces-kivela-as-new-109th-representative/
TRUE
50
49201711/7/2017MOSD-008SRR0108691285118062552642.6%50.3%-7.8%36.9%57.4%-20.6%12.8%39.4%58.9%-19.6%11.8%-20.3%12.57%Nohttp://enr.sos.mo.gov/TRUE
51
50201711/7/2017MOHD-023SDD0179018439201388.9%9.1%79.8%88.8%7.9%80.9%-1.1%93.7%5.8%79.8%60.7%19.11%Nohttp://enr.sos.mo.gov/TRUE
52
51201711/7/2017MOHD-151SRR0602155751221027.2%70.5%-43.2%14.2%83.2%-69.1%25.9%24.8%73.5%-48.6%5.4%-64.0%20.75%Nohttp://enr.sos.mo.gov/TRUE
53
52201711/7/2017NHHD-Hillsborough 15SRD1119811780237650.4%49.6%0.8%42.9%52.7%-9.8%10.6%48.0%51.0%-2.9%3.8%-8.1%8.91%No
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOEwIgnXUAEwoON.jpg
TRUE
54
53201711/7/2017NHHD-Sullivan 01SDD013276710199866.4%33.6%32.8%58.6%37.0%21.6%11.2%59.3%39.6%19.8%13.1%21.1%11.69%No
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOEwIgnXUAEwoON.jpg
TRUE
55
54201711/7/2017NYSD-26SDD03230855871763807184.9%14.7%70.2%85.1%11.8%73.3%-3.1%81.8%16.5%65.3%4.9%71.3%-1.08%No
https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/
TRUE
56
55201711/7/2017SCHD-113SDD014623430180581.0%19.0%62.0%67.0%27.7%39.3%22.7%73.2%25.6%47.7%14.3%41.4%20.61%No
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/democrat-marvin-pendarvis-wins-north-charleston-seat-in-the-legislature/article_fe06bbb6-c313-11e7-86f2-235af8b5dade.html
TRUE
57
56201711/7/2017UTUT-03FRR034841782012160013464225.9%58.1%-32.2%23.3%47.2%-23.9%-8.3%19.5%78.3%-58.8%26.6%-32.6%0.43%No
https://electionresults.utah.gov/elections/uscongress/3
TRUE
58
57201711/7/2017WASD-07 (R inc)SRR0100152160503162031.7%68.3%-36.7%29.0%63.5%-34.5%-2.2%36.2%61.0%-24.9%-11.8%-32.1%-4.60%No
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html
TRUE
59
58201711/7/2017WASD-31 (R inc)SRR0115391555402709342.6%57.4%-14.8%41.6%50.2%-8.6%-6.3%47.9%49.9%-2.1%-12.8%-6.9%-7.89%No
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html
TRUE
60
59201711/7/2017WASD-45 (open)SRD1244001981204421255.2%44.8%10.4%64.8%28.0%36.8%-26.4%58.2%39.6%18.6%-8.2%32.2%-21.84%No
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html
TRUE
61
60201711/7/2017WAHD-07 (R inc)SRR0102462128003152632.5%67.5%-35.0%29.0%63.5%-34.5%-0.5%36.2%61.0%-24.9%-10.1%-32.1%-2.95%No
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html
TRUE
62
61201711/7/2017WAHD-31 (R inc)SRR0113451535202669742.5%57.5%-15.0%41.6%50.2%-8.6%-6.5%47.9%49.9%-2.1%-13.0%-6.9%-8.08%No
https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html
TRUE
63
62201711/14/2017OKSD-37SRD1223422030443750.3%49.7%0.7%27.5%66.8%-39.3%40.0%31.3%68.7%-37.5%38.2%-38.8%39.54%No
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html
TRUE
64
63201711/14/2017OKSD-45SRR0214428170496143.2%56.8%-13.6%26.9%66.6%-39.7%26.2%29.6%70.4%-40.9%27.3%-40.0%26.44%No
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html
TRUE
65
64201711/14/2017OKHD-076SRR071515440225931.7%68.3%-36.7%29.6%64.5%-34.91%-1.8%29.2%70.8%-41.5%4.8%-36.6%-0.13%No
https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html
TRUE
66
65201712/5/2017MASD-Worcester & MiddlesexSD50.4%41.9%8.5%51.9%46.2%5.8%7.9%
67
66201712/19/2017FLHD-058SR43.1%53.2%-10.1%46.8%52.1%-5.3%-8.9%
68
67201712/19/2017TNSD-17SR23.8%72.2%-48.5%29.5%69.1%-39.6%-46.3%
69
6820181/16/2018SCHD-099SR35.4%58.1%-22.8%32.1%66.3%-34.3%-25.7%
70
6920182/6/2018MOHD-097SR33.3%61.1%-27.8%42.6%55.4%-12.8%-24.1%
71
7020182/6/2018MOHD-129SR16.4%80.0%-63.7%27.8%70.0%-42.2%-58.3%
72
7120182/6/2018MOHD-144SR19.1%77.8%-58.7%36.1%61.4%-25.3%-50.3%
73
7220182/13/2018FLHD-072SR46.0%50.7%-4.7%47.8%51.3%-3.5%-4.4%
74
7320182/27/2018NHHD-Belknap 03SR41.2%53.6%-12.5%50.1%49.1%1.0%-9.1%
75
7420183/13/2018PAPA-18FR38.5%58.1%-19.6%41.0%57.9%-16.9%-18.9%
76
7520183/27/2018ALHD-021SR
77
7620185/15/2018ALHD-004SR
78
7720185/15/2018ALSD-26SR
79
80
avg9.2%avg7.6%avg9.1%
81
med10.5%med6.0%med11.2%
82
correl0.247correl0.328correl0.292
83
vs 2016
vs 2012
weighted
84
85
Calc without incs
86
avg10.1%avg9.0%avg10.1%
87
med10.9%med7.5%med12.0%
88
vs 2016
vs 2012
weighted
89
90
D>HRC42
91
D<HRC22
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
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