| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Date | State | Office | D % | R % | Special Margin | Weighted Partisan Lean | Swing | Biden % | Trump % | Clinton % | Trump % | Notes |
2 | 1/3/2023 | Georgia | HD-07 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | No Democrat ran; jungle primary, so GOP results are 5 GOPers combined | ||||||
3 | 1/10/2023 | Mississippi | HD-23 | N/A | 86.6% | N/A | Nonpartisan election, but candidates identified with parties; none identified as Democratic | ||||||
4 | 1/10/2023 | Virginia | SD-07 | 50.8% | 49.1% | D+2 | D+3 | R+2 | 53.8% | 44.2% | 47.1% | 46.9% | |
5 | 1/10/2023 | Virginia | HD-24 | 37.3% | 62.5% | R+25 | R+39 | D+14 | 31.2% | 67.3% | 30.7% | 64.5% | |
6 | 1/10/2023 | Virginia | HD-35 | 67.7% | 32.2% | D+35 | D+39 | R+4 | 71.4% | 27.2% | 66.4% | 27.3% | |
7 | 1/31/2023 | Georgia | SD-11 | 22.9% | 76.0% | R+53 | R+33 | R+20 | 35.0% | 64.2% | 34.3% | 64.1% | |
8 | 1/31/2023 | Georgia | HD-07 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | All-GOP runoff | ||||||
9 | 1/31/2023 | Georgia | HD-119 | 11.7% | 88.3% | R+77 | R+50 | R+26 | 26.8% | 71.6% | 22.7% | 73.7% | Jungle primary; GOP results are 6 GOPers combined |
10 | 1/31/2023 | Georgia | HD-172 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | No Democrat ran | ||||||
11 | 1/31/2023 | Mississippi | HD-23 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | Nonpartisan election, but all candidates identified as Republicans | ||||||
12 | 1/31/2023 | Pennsylvania | SD-27 | 31.3% | 68.7% | R+37 | R+41 | D+3 | 31.4% | 67.2% | 28.4% | 67.7% | |
13 | 2/7/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-32 | 75.0% | 25.0% | D+50 | D+21 | D+29 | 62.4% | 36.5% | 59.2% | 37.7% | |
14 | 2/7/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-34 | 87.9% | 12.1% | D+76 | D+57 | D+19 | 80.5% | 18.7% | 78.0% | 19.0% | |
15 | 2/7/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-35 | 74.7% | 25.3% | D+49 | D+13 | D+37 | 57.5% | 41.4% | 57.6% | 39.8% | |
16 | 2/18/2023 | Louisiana | HD-93 | 93.0% | 7.0% | D+86 | D+73 | D+13 | 87.7% | 10.4% | 85.2% | 10.4% | Jungle primary; Dem results are 5 Dems combined |
17 | 2/21/2023 | Kentucky | SD-19 | 77.0% | 22.9% | D+54 | D+25 | D+29 | 64.7% | 33.4% | 58.1% | 36.0% | |
18 | 2/21/2023 | New Hampshire | Strafford HD-08 | 55.7% | 44.3% | D+11 | R+2 | D+13 | 51.3% | 46.7% | 43.4% | 49.2% | |
19 | 2/21/2023 | Virginia | CD-04 | 74.4% | 25.5% | D+49 | D+31 | D+18 | 67.2% | 31.5% | 63.4% | 32.0% | |
20 | 2/28/2023 | Connecticut | HD-06 | 67.7% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran; a write-in candidate got 32% of the vote | ||||||
21 | 2/28/2023 | Connecticut | HD-100 | 68.9% | 31.1% | D+38 | D+27 | D+11 | 65.2% | 33.0% | 60.1% | 34.3% | |
22 | 2/28/2023 | Connecticut | HD-148 | 61.0% | 39.0% | D+22 | D+36 | R+14 | 69.3% | 29.3% | 68.5% | 28.2% | |
23 | 2/28/2023 | Georgia | HD-119 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | All-GOP runoff | ||||||
24 | 3/14/2023 | Tennessee | HD-86 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
25 | 3/21/2023 | Georgia | HD-75 | 88.6% | 11.4% | D+77 | D+68 | D+9 | 85.6% | 13.4% | 84.9% | 13.1% | Jungle primary; Dem results are 2 Dems combined |
26 | 3/25/2023 | Louisiana | HD-93 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | All-Dem runoff | ||||||
27 | 3/28/2023 | Virginia | SD-09 | 89.8% | 9.9% | D+80 | D+48 | D+32 | 75.9% | 22.9% | 72.2% | 23.5% | |
28 | 4/4/2023 | Wisconsin | SD-08 | 49.1% | 50.8% | R+2 | R+11 | D+9 | 46.8% | 51.7% | 40.6% | 52.8% | |
29 | 5/16/2023 | Florida | HD-24 | N/A | 78.0% | N/A | No Democrat ran | ||||||
30 | 5/16/2023 | Georgia | HD-68 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran; jungle primary, so Dem results are 5 Dems combined | ||||||
31 | 5/16/2023 | Kentucky | SD-28 | 31.3% | 49.8% | R+18 | R+26 | D+7 | 38.8% | 59.6% | 35.5% | 60.0% | An independent got 19% of the vote |
32 | 5/16/2023 | New Hampshire | Hillsborough HD-03 | 71.6% | 28.4% | D+43 | D+23 | D+20 | 62.6% | 35.3% | 60.4% | 33.2% | |
33 | 5/16/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-108 | 38.2% | 58.4% | R+20 | R+37 | D+17 | 33.1% | 65.2% | 29.3% | 66.4% | |
34 | 5/16/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-163 | 60.2% | 38.6% | D+22 | D+19 | D+3 | 62.3% | 36.7% | 55.6% | 40.8% | |
35 | 5/30/2023 | Massachusetts | 9th Suffolk HD | 97.7% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
36 | 5/30/2023 | Massachusetts | 10th Suffolk HD | 93.1% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
37 | 6/13/2023 | Georgia | HD-68 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | All-Dem runoff | ||||||
38 | 6/13/2023 | Maine | HD-45 | 47.8% | 52.2% | R+4 | R+12 | D+7 | 45.3% | 52.2% | 41.3% | 51.7% | |
39 | 7/18/2023 | Wisconsin | AD-24 | 46.3% | 53.7% | R+7 | R+22 | D+15 | 40.9% | 57.4% | 34.8% | 58.3% | |
40 | 8/3/2023 | Tennessee | HD-03 | 25.5% | 74.5% | R+49 | R+67 | D+18 | 18.1% | 80.5% | 16.4% | 80.3% | |
41 | 8/3/2023 | Tennessee | HD-52 | 77.8% | 22.2% | D+56 | D+36 | D+19 | 68.8% | 27.5% | 65.7% | 29.3% | |
42 | 8/3/2023 | Tennessee | HD-86 | 94.0% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
43 | 8/22/2023 | New Hampshire | Grafton HD-16 | 71.8% | 28.2% | D+44 | D+24 | D+20 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 55.7% | 35.9% | |
44 | 8/29/2023 | Virginia | HD-06 | N/A | 80.7% | N/A | No Democrat ran | ||||||
45 | 9/12/2023 | New York | AD-27 | 55.1% | 44.6% | D+11 | D+13 | R+2 | 56.5% | 42.5% | 60.5% | 36.0% | |
46 | 9/14/2023 | Tennessee | HD-51 | 75.6% | 21.5% | D+54 | D+39 | D+15 | 71.0% | 26.2% | 65.3% | 27.9% | |
47 | 9/19/2023 | New Hampshire | Rockingham HD-01 | 55.9% | 44.1% | D+12 | R+6 | D+18 | 48.7% | 49.1% | 42.2% | 50.4% | |
48 | 9/19/2023 | Pennsylvania | HD-21 | 65.5% | 34.5% | D+31 | D+17 | D+14 | 60.8% | 37.9% | 56.1% | 39.7% | |
49 | 11/7/2023 | Kentucky | HD-93 | 57.6% | 42.4% | D+15 | D+10 | D+5 | 57.2% | 40.5% | 48.7% | 43.8% | |
50 | 11/7/2023 | Maine | HD-50 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
51 | 11/7/2023 | Massachusetts | Worcester & Hampshire SD | 45.4% | 54.5% | R+9 | D+1 | R+10 | 52.0% | 45.2% | 44.9% | 45.9% | |
52 | 11/7/2023 | New Hampshire | Hillsborough HD-03 | 60.7% | 39.3% | D+21 | D+23 | R+2 | 62.6% | 35.3% | 60.4% | 33.2% | |
53 | 11/7/2023 | Rhode Island | CD-01 | 64.7% | 35.0% | D+30 | D+24 | D+6 | 63.8% | 34.7% | 59.1% | 34.4% | |
54 | 11/7/2023 | Rhode Island | SD-01 | 82.8% | 16.4% | D+66 | D+53 | D+14 | 77.3% | 20.4% | 75.2% | 19.1% | |
55 | 11/7/2023 | South Carolina | SD-42 | 81.7% | 18.0% | D+64 | D+43 | D+20 | 73.4% | 24.7% | 69.0% | 26.2% | |
56 | 11/7/2023 | Texas | HD-02 | 11.2% | 88.8% | R+78 | R+65 | R+13 | 19.2% | 79.7% | 17.5% | 79.2% | Jungle primary; GOP results are 5 GOPers combined |
57 | 11/21/2023 | Utah | CD-02 | 33.5% | 56.8% | R+23 | R+21 | R+3 | 39.5% | 56.7% | 30.7% | 46.8% | |
58 | 12/5/2023 | Florida | HD-118 | 45.6% | 51.8% | R+6 | R+14 | D+7 | 41.6% | 57.8% | 53.1% | 43.6% | |
59 | 12/5/2023 | Minnesota | HD-52B | 58.2% | 40.9% | D+17 | D+23 | R+5 | 63.4% | 34.2% | 54.3% | 36.0% | |
60 | 12/12/2023 | Oklahoma | SD-32 | 44.5% | 55.5% | R+11 | R+25 | D+14 | 38.7% | 58.5% | 34.8% | 59.0% | |
61 | 12/21/2023 | Delaware | HD-37 | 37.1% | 62.7% | R+26 | R+20 | R+6 | 42.7% | 56.1% | 36.5% | 59.6% | |
62 | 1/2/2024 | South Carolina | SD-19 | 86.0% | 9.7% | D+76 | D+61 | D+16 | 82.1% | 16.6% | 79.1% | 17.1% | |
63 | 1/9/2024 | Alabama | HD-16 | 16.5% | 83.4% | R+67 | R+77 | D+10 | 13.0% | 86.1% | 11.9% | 85.7% | |
64 | 1/9/2024 | Virginia | SD-09 | 37.1% | 62.7% | R+26 | R+20 | R+5 | 41.1% | 57.6% | 40.6% | 56.6% | |
65 | 1/9/2024 | Virginia | HD-48 | 30.3% | 69.6% | R+39 | R+28 | R+12 | 37.4% | 61.5% | 37.0% | 60.1% | |
66 | 1/16/2024 | Florida | HD-35 | 51.3% | 48.7% | D+3 | D+1 | D+2 | 51.9% | 47.0% | 49.8% | 45.9% | |
67 | 1/23/2024 | Connecticut | HD-115 | 54.2% | 22.1% | D+32 | D+21 | D+11 | 63.1% | 35.9% | 56.2% | 39.1% | An independent got 21% of the vote |
68 | 1/23/2024 | New Hampshire | Coos HD-01 | 39.8% | 60.2% | R+20 | R+13 | R+8 | 45.2% | 53.3% | 39.8% | 51.9% | |
69 | 1/23/2024 | New Hampshire | Coos HD-06 | 46.2% | 53.8% | R+8 | D+7 | R+15 | 55.2% | 43.0% | 51.3% | 43.0% | |
70 | 1/30/2024 | Texas | HD-02 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | All-GOP runoff | ||||||
71 | 2/13/2024 | Georgia | SD-30 | 17.2% | 82.8% | R+66 | R+35 | R+31 | 34.8% | 64.0% | 31.0% | 66.1% | Jungle primary; GOP results are 3 GOPers combined |
72 | 2/13/2024 | Georgia | HD-125 | 13.5% | 85.9% | R+72 | R+31 | R+41 | 36.8% | 61.4% | 30.2% | 66.6% | Jungle primary; GOP results are 3 GOPers combined |
73 | 2/13/2024 | New York | CD-03 | 53.9% | 45.9% | D+8 | D+3 | D+5 | 53.4% | 45.3% | 50.8% | 45.7% | |
74 | 2/13/2024 | New York | AD-77 | 75.0% | 20.2% | D+55 | D+73 | R+19 | 86.1% | 13.1% | 94.4% | 4.2% | |
75 | 2/13/2024 | Oklahoma | HD-39 | 45.1% | 50.4% | R+5 | R+32 | D+26 | 35.6% | 61.7% | 29.6% | 62.6% | |
76 | 2/13/2024 | Pennsylvania | HD-140 | 67.8% | 32.2% | D+36 | D+6 | D+29 | 54.6% | 44.2% | 53.0% | 43.0% | |
77 | 3/5/2024 | California | U.S. Senate | 60.6% | 39.4% | D+21 | D+26 | R+4 | 63.5% | 34.3% | 62.3% | 31.9% | Jungle primary; Dem results are 4 Dems combined, GOP results are 2 GOPers combined |
78 | 3/5/2024 | Maine | HD-122 | 74.4% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
79 | 3/5/2024 | Massachusetts | 6th Worcester HD | N/A | 94.4% | N/A | No Democrat ran | ||||||
80 | 3/12/2024 | New Hampshire | Rockingham HD-21 | 63.0% | 37.0% | D+26 | D+30 | R+4 | 66.9% | 31.6% | 61.7% | 31.6% | |
81 | 3/12/2024 | New Hampshire | Strafford HD-11 | 66.2% | 33.8% | D+32 | D+25 | D+8 | 64.2% | 34.1% | 57.8% | 34.4% | |
82 | 3/19/2024 | California | CD-20 | 25.0% | 73.2% | R+48 | R+30 | R+18 | 36.4% | 61.3% | 31.8% | 62.6% | Jungle primary; Dem results are 2 Dems combined, GOP results are 4 GOPers combined |
83 | 3/19/2024 | Kentucky | HD-24 | 22.7% | 62.5% | R+40 | R+62 | D+22 | 20.2% | 78.5% | 20.2% | 76.4% | A write-in got 15% of the vote |
84 | 3/19/2024 | Kentucky | HD-26 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | No Democrat ran | ||||||
85 | 3/19/2024 | Minnesota | HD-27B | 15.4% | 84.5% | R+69 | R+48 | R+21 | 27.0% | 70.9% | 23.3% | 69.0% | |
86 | 3/26/2024 | Alabama | HD-10 | 62.4% | 37.5% | D+25 | R+8 | D+33 | 48.1% | 48.9% | 39.2% | 52.1% | |
87 | 4/2/2024 | South Carolina | HD-109 | 97.4% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
88 | 4/9/2024 | Georgia | HD-139 | N/A | 90.4% | N/A | No Democrat ran; jungle primary, so GOP results are 3 GOPers combined | ||||||
89 | 4/16/2024 | Michigan | HD-13 | 65.6% | 34.4% | D+31 | D+25 | D+7 | 63.6% | 35.1% | 62.3% | 34.2% | |
90 | 4/16/2024 | Michigan | HD-25 | 59.6% | 38.3% | D+21 | D+14 | D+7 | 58.8% | 39.8% | 55.1% | 39.7% | |
91 | 4/23/2024 | Pennsylvania | HD-139 | 39.7% | 60.3% | R+21 | R+33 | D+13 | 35.6% | 63.3% | 31.1% | 65.9% | |
92 | 4/30/2024 | New York | CD-26 | 68.5% | 31.3% | D+37 | D+18 | D+20 | 60.8% | 37.4% | 55.5% | 39.7% | |
93 | 5/4/2024 | Texas | SD-15 | 100.0% | N/A | N/A | No Republican ran | ||||||
94 | 5/7/2024 | Georgia | HD-139 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | All-GOP runoff | ||||||
95 | 5/21/2024 | California | CD-20 | N/A | 100.0% | N/A | All-GOP runoff | ||||||
96 | 6/11/2024 | Ohio | CD-06 | 45.4% | 54.6% | R+9 | R+32 | D+22 | 35.0% | 63.7% | 35.7% | 60.3% | |
97 | 6/25/2024 | Colorado | CD-04 | 35.3% | 57.5% | R+22 | R+25 | D+2 | 39.5% | 58.0% | 32.1% | 59.6% | |
98 | |||||||||||||
99 | AVERAGE SWING | D+6 | LEGEND | ||||||||||
100 | MEDIAN SWING | D+7 | Includes special elections for Congress, state legislature, and statewide office; lower offices (e.g., mayor) are excluded |