ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAW
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Companies Ranked by Finance Value (Column G)Ticker5-Yr BetaRequired Rate of Return (10-yr)Actual Rate of Return (10-yr)Risk Aversion = 2018 Price Return (worst year in past 10 for S&P 500)Finance Value (Col E + Col F)Market Cap ($B)Dividend YieldFree Cash Flow Yield (TTM)5-Yr Div Growth/yrP/E (TTM)EV/EBITDA (TTM)Forward 1-yr PEG (Seeking Alpha)Forward 3-5 year PEG (Morningstar)BMW Method 16-yr Px CAGRRecent Px TrendBMW Method estimate of loss @ -2SDReturn on Tangible Capital Employed (lfy)Return on Assets (TTM)Return on Equity (TTM)Return on Investment (TTM)ROIC (TTM)WACC (TTM)Total Debt: EBITDA (mrq)LT Debt: Equity (mrq)TBV:Px (mrq)Div:FCF (lfy)S&P Bond RatingS&P Stock Rating (Stars)Px (50-d MA)Shares BOTAmountNet Present Value @ 10-yr RRR Discount Rate (10-yr Holding Period + dividends)Graham NumberPx (50-day MA): Graham NumberPx: Book7-Yr P/EPx: SalesValue StockOverpriced StockSCORE: Basic Quality ScreenMorningstar RatingS&P Insider ActivityS&P VolatilityS&P Fair Value RankA-rated CompanyVYM (High Dividend Yield)VIG (Dividend Appreciation)
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S&P 100 Watch List
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MerckMRK0.567.6%13.4%25.6%39.0%$2712.7%6.1%9.0%18136.401.3012.4%up 1SD29%23.25%14.29%46.57%19.46%22.58%8.56%1.590.680.7%68%A+B/M (5)$94.9253$5,030.76$3,718.44$50.16177%6.1444.64.0Over Valued (3)unfavorablelow3yesyes
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Union PacificUNP0.9512.5%15.7%19.2%34.9%$1312.4%4.7%15.4%19135.732.0216.4%down 1SD28%15.06%10.89%56.68%12.06%12.21%9.11%2.642.998.9%46%A-A-/M (3)$202.1625$5,054.00$2,898.54$70.06309%11.1245.54.0Under Valued (3)favorablelow2yes
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Abbott LaboratoriesABT0.8511.2%15.3%17.4%32.7%$1831.8%5.0%12.1%2416neg EPS growth17.5214.4%down 1SD29%24.07%10.63%27.79%14.91%15.30%7.35%1.510.461.4%37%AA-B/L (4)$100.8850$5,044.00$2,143.80$47.39219%5.2574.24.0Under Valued (3)unfavorablelow2yes
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PfizerPFE0.618.3%11.5%14.6%26.1%$2763.3%11.6%5.7%97neg EPS growthNA11.0%on trendline28%19.91%15.68%43.95%20.47%19.48%7.79%0.850.395.4%29%A+B+/M (5)$45.54110$5,009.40$2,439.95$42.46107%3.0242.8yes4.0Fairly Valued (3)neutrallow1yesyes
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Texas InstrumentsTXN1.1515.0%22.9%-8.2%14.7%$1612.8%4.1%17.2%1914neg EPS growth3.0119.5%on trendline40%45.88%35.44%63.68%39.70%66.41%8.99%0.670.556.3%62%A+A+/M (3)$163.4531$5,066.95$3,354.65$56.28294%11.1338.2yes3.5Under Valued (2)neutrallow3yesyesyes
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AlphabetGOOGL1.1414.8%18.7%-4.8%13.9%$1,2580.0%4.9%0.0%20131.611.3717.5%down 1SD33%23.62%19.44%26.41%22.78%32.76%9.96%0.360.1117.6%75%AA+B+/M (4)$96.6952$5,027.88$1,186.92$48.76217%5.0414.64.0Under Valued (5)unfavorablelow3no dividendno dividendno dividend
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Home DepotHD1.0313.5%20.1%-8.6%11.5%$3332.3%3.9%17.0%20148.461.6521.9%down 1SD33%40.70%22.71%-3656.69%39.44%34.57%8.37%1.8038.30-1.8%50%AA+/M (4)$289.7317$4,925.41$5,915.46$21.771331%256.3332.13.0Over Valued (2)unfavorablelow4yesyes
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TargetTGT0.8411.1%13.1%-3.0%10.1%$732.7%0.5%10.2%22110.383.3112.5%up 1SD42%17.13%7.39%30.51%15.83%10.68%9.11%2.781.7314.7%30%AA/L (3)$158.8331$4,923.73$1,441.42$67.38239%6.8220.73.0Under Valued (4)neutralaverage1yesyesyes
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Johnson & JohnsonJNJ0.567.6%12.8%-3.7%9.1%$4622.6%4.5%6.0%25165.513.8211.2%down 1SD19%25.34%10.74%35.37%14.55%16.57%6.47%1.060.430.2%56%AAAA-/M (3)$168.8430$5,065.20$2,737.18$68.49241%6.2324.94.0Over Valued (3)unfavorablelow2yesyesyes
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JPMorgan ChaseJPM1.1114.5%16.0%-10.5%5.5%$3963.0%38.3%14.4%12NA1.21NA13.1%on trendline34%1.53%0.96%14.52%2.32%NA6.33%NA1.1648.5%26%A-A-/L (3)$120.2042$5,048.40$490.44$152.3075%1.6133.3yes4.0Under Valued (4)unfavorablelow1yesyesyes
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Lockheed MartinLMT0.709.4%21.3%-18.4%2.9%$1262.5%7.1%9.0%221520.793.5516.9%on trendline38%25.65%11.39%54.73%16.38%16.14%7.26%1.130.96-1.0%38%A-A/M (3)$442.6911$4,869.59$5,290.18$149.79279%10.6272.04.0Under Valued (3)neutrallow1yesyesyes
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CaterpillarCAT1.0213.3%13.9%-18.2%-4.3%$1232.0%3.0%8.3%17132.641.5712.5%up 1SD40%10.97%10.58%41.76%14.13%10.42%7.89%2.842.346.0%49%AB/H (2)$198.9025$4,972.50$217.71$96.24206%7.9322.22.0Over Valued (2)neutralaverage3yesyes
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United Parcel ServiceUPS0.8411.1%12.9%-17.2%-4.3%$1583.3%6.3%12.9%149neg EPS growth2.0211.0%on trendline27%21.66%16.03%71.90%24.81%21.73%8.41%1.411.416.9%32%AB+/M (3)$169.0130$5,070.30$1,275.98$75.05225%9.3281.64.0Under Valued (3)neutrallow3yesyesyes
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General DynamicsGD0.8311.0%16.9%-23.1%-6.2%$692.0%7.3%8.7%21151.371.9412.5%on trendline36%15.66%6.62%18.96%9.88%8.04%7.29%2.490.74-6.4%39%A-A+/M (3)$236.9721$4,976.37$1,235.38$129.84177%4.0231.8yes4.0Over Valued (3)favorablelow3yesyesyes
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Bristol Myers SquibbBMY0.567.6%12.5%-21.1%-8.6%$1682.7%7.4%6.7%26102.43NA11.3%on trendline34%23.17%6.51%50.30%8.20%8.29%5.20%1.971.23-16.1%29%A+B-/M (3)$73.8568$5,021.80$2,903.57$32.59227%5.2623.73.0Over Valued (2)unfavorablelow2yesyes
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Averagen = 150.8511.2%15.8%-4.0%11.8%$2792.4%7.6%10.2%19135.143.5914.3%on trendline33%22.24%13.29%-204.90%18.33%21.08%7.87%1.653.576.1%44%A+A-/M (3)$170.84$5,007.09$2,483.31$73.90288%23.3333.53/152/153.6Fairly Valued (3)neutrallow29/1512/1512/15
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Benchmarks
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Vanguard Information Technology ETFVGT1.1715.2%18.7%1.7%20.4%$460.9%NA12.9%23NANANA17.2%on trendline33%NANANANANANANANANANANANA$323.1915$4,847.85$946.64NANA6.6NANANANANANANANANANA
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Vanguard Health Care ETFVHT0.7810.4%14.8%3.4%18.2%$201.3%NA10.6%22NANANA13.7%down 1SD24%NANANANANANANANANANANANA$235.4621$4,944.66$1,924.57NANA4.3NANANANANANANANANANA
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Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETFVIG0.8711.5%12.4%-2.6%9.8%$751.9%NA8.1%19NANANA11.5%on trendline23%NANANANANANANANANANANANA$144.5735$5,059.95$446.09NANA4.1NANANANANANANANANANA
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Berkshire HathawayBRK-B0.8711.5%13.7%-4.1%9.6%$6980.0%2.8%0.0%61708.35NA11.6%on trendline25%4.14%-0.06%3.35%-0.06%0.01%8.31%-98.100.2650.5%no dividendAAB/L (3)$285.7917.5$5,001.33-$209.38$155.61184%1.5152.8yes3.0Under Valued (4)unfavorablelowNRno dividendno dividendno dividend
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SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY1.0013.1%13.1%-4.2%8.9%$3671.6%2.0%4.7%18163.951.6110.2%on trendline29%NA3.23%21.35%6.46%10.20%8.55%9.651.60NANANANA$378.2713$4,917.51-$876.83$208.14184%3.5282.7NANANANANANANANA
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Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETFVYM0.8611.4%12.0%-7.2%4.8%$613.0%NA5.8%14NANANA10.6%on trendline26%NANANANANANANANANANANANA$103.1348$4,950.24$405.11NANA2.4NA2.1NANANANANANANANA
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Vanguard Consumer Staples ETFVDC0.648.6%10.8%-6.9%3.9%$82.3%NA5.9%22NANANA10.4%on trendline18%NANANANANANANANANANANANA$182.9427$4,939.38$1,467.13NANA4.7NANANANANANANANANANA
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Averagen = 70.8811.7%13.6%-2.8%10.8%$1821.6%2.4%6.9%26436.151.6112.2%on trendline25%4.14%1.59%12.35%3.20%5.11%8.43%-44.230.9350.5%NAAAB/L (3)$236.19$4,951.56$586.19$181.88184%3.9222.51/10/13.0Under Valued (4)unfavorablelow
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Risk-free Rate
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Vanguard Intermed-Term TreasuryVFITX0.04-0.7%1.0%1.7%$53.9%-17.3%0.4%down 2SD50%AAANA$9.89496$5,004.64NM
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Consumer Price Indexcpi--2.7%1.5%4.2%
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Updated 12/1/2022
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Possibly Overpriced
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Advanced Micro DevicesAMD1.5820.3%42.4%77.7%122.1%$121no dividend3.1%no dividend47213.771.0022.9%on trendline83%32.21%6.15%12.78%7.17%0.38%9.24%O.630.053.7%no dividendA-B-/H (4)$65.4676$4,974.96$904.47$35.22186%2.2654.72.0Under Valued (4)neutralhigh2
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Eli LillyLLY0.668.9%25.2%47.2%72.4%$3421.1%1.6%12.9%55412.882.1922.4%up 2SD43%21.15%12.52%80.80%15.90%20.78%3.50%1.981.58-0.3%52%A+B+/M (3)$345.1514$4,832.10$10,729.44$40.92843%34.59411.33.5Over Valued (1)favorablelow2yesyes
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AdobeADBE1.2716.5%25.5%24.1%49.6%$151no dividend4.5%no dividend33341.931.6522.8%down 1SD56%45.97%18.11%44.39%25.65%19.07%7.65%0.680.320.0%no dividendA+B/M (4)$304.6616$4,874.56$3,048.01$88.63344%10.8559.23.5Under Valued (4)unfavorableaverage2
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MastercardMA1.2215.8%22.5%24.9%47.4%$3170.6%3.0%17.4%35252.071.3024.2%down 2SD30%40.07%26.64%148.94%40.48%43.32%8.84%1.082.29-1.3%20%A+A+/M (4)$312.6716$5,002.72$4,951.87$38.58810%53.15615.93.5Under Valued (3)unfavorablelow4yes
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UnitedHealthUNH0.9312.2%27.7%14.1%41.8%$4891.3%6.1%17.7%55171.811.6025.7%on trendline46%19.11%8.40%26.59%14.75%10.45%7.95%1.470.65-4.0%27%A+A+/M (5)$525.6610$5,256.60$11,218.54$191.43275%6.7431.63.5Over Valued (2)favorablelow3yes
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AmazonAMZN1.0914.2%22.2%18.5%40.7%$1,055no dividend-2.8%no dividend8620NA5.1926.0%down 2SD36%6.49%2.70%14.44%4.42%3.24%6.89%2.330.9311.9%no dividendAAB/M (4)$107.7846$4,957.88$7,837.50$18.18593%6.9931.93.5Under Valued (4)unfavorableaverage1
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MicrosoftMSFT1.2115.7%27.4%9.9%37.3%$1,8271.1%3.4%9.8%27171.522.1923.0%on trendline47%29.78%20.73%42.10%26.04%28.50%8.80%0.610.355.2%37%AAAA/M (5)$237.1721$5,115.18$10,456.11$69.76349%10.6469.23.5Under Valued (4)favorablelow2yes
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NikeNKE1.0613.8%17.1%20.0%37.1%$1471.3%2.1%11.1%30201.333.4618.1%down 2SD28%17.46%15.33%37.08%18.87%25.84%7.23%1.700.808.9%41%AA-A-/L (2)$95.5452$4,968.08$2,432.43$28.31337%10.5393.63.5Under Valued (4)favorablelow3yes
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NextEra EnergyNEE0.739.8%20.5%13.0%33.5%$1552.2%-0.4%11.7%44253.942.1819.4%on trendline33%5.41%1.95%12.27%2.43%3.56%3.19%4.631.6820.1%-9%A-A-/L (3)$79.2563$4,992.75$7,076.00$29.13272%4.4388.53.5Fairly Valued (3)neutrallow1yesyesyes
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Costco WholesaleCOST0.729.6%20.9%10.1%31.0%$2260.7%1.5%12.4%41213.163.7920.7%up 1SD28%12.35%9.27%29.44%20.05%19.01%4.60%0.720.448.6%43%A+A/L (3)$493.3410$4,933.40$7,889.51$117.41419%11.4571.13.5Over Valued (2)unfavorablelow1yes
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DanaherDHR0.8511.2%21.1%9.5%30.6%$1830.4%3.6%12.0%2920neg YoY growth3.1719.5%on trendline33%42.50%9.75%18.33%9.31%9.45%4.97%1.920.41-6.5%11%A-A-/M (3)$259.7819$4,935.82$4,981.31$112.72231%4.3636.34.0Over Valued (2)neutrallow4
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LindeLIN0.9512.5%23.4%0.9%24.3%$1701.4%3.9%8.3%46204.002.8213.2%up 1SD26%14.04%7.65%14.26%6.16%6.60%6.05%1.410.410.8%33%AA/M (4)$297.6117$5,059.37$608.73$113.71260%4.5485.24.0NAunfavorablelow1yesyesyes
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AppleAAPL1.2215.8%23.5%-0.6%22.9%$2,3560.6%4.6%8.5%24182.732.9226.9%on trendline38%36.20%25.89%160.90%46.31%33.18%10.85%1.062.372.1%13%AA+A/L (4)$146.1434$4,968.76$7,193.79$20.91701%46.5406.13.5Over Valued (3)unfavorablelow1
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Procter & GamblePG0.587.9%10.9%11.7%22.6%$3452.5%4.1%5.7%25183.394.7710.3%on trendline23%39.83%12.32%32.66%17.52%13.42%5.92%1.430.75-5.5%65%AA-A-/L (4)$133.7837$4,949.86$1,975.68$49.98273%8.0334.6yes3.5Over Valued (2)favorablelow2yesyesyes
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Accenture PLCACN1.0714.0%18.0%-4.4%13.6%$1851.5%5.3%10.7%28172.473.0118.7%down 1SD24%26.11%15.16%31.68%23.15%23.72%10.05%0.370.154.8%28%AA-A+/M (5)$271.8018$4,919.22$5,146.90$91.86306%8.5363.13.5Fairly Valued (2)favorablelow3yes
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Honeywell InternationalHON0.9712.7%16.5%-6.1%10.4%$1481.9%3.1%6.7%28184.012.1014.8%down 2SD32%17.95%8.04%30.73%13.14%10.39%9.17%2.310.96-1.7%51%AA-/M (3)$190.7227$4,959.63$2,512.72$65.53281%8.4294.34.0Under Valued (3)neutrallowNRyesyesyes
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NvidiaNVDA1.7322.2%50.3%-41.5%8.8%$3450.1%1.2%2.7%44351.473.8336.9%on trendline76%28.47%22.01%38.89%1.47%11.59%7.30%2.710.553.6%5%AB+/H (4)$134.9837$4,994.26$10,065.12$26.94501%18.89014.43.5Under Valued (4)unfavorablehigh1
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PepsiCoPEP0.699.3%13.4%-6.3%7.1%$2552.5%2.5%7.4%26173.653.1311.5%on trendline19%22.63%10.40%51.13%15.42%12.23%6.88%2.352.07-6.5%83%A+B+/L (5)$173.9029$5,043.10$1,853.97$46.52373%13.4343.1yes3.5Over Valued (2)favorablelowNRyesyesyes
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WalmartWMT0.517.0%10.3%-10.1%0.2%$4151.5%1.7%1.9%47182.894.0010.6%on trendline22%13.82%6.8019.54%13.82%7.49%4.25%8.570.9114.1%56%AAB+/L (4)$129.7039$5,058.43$2,287.41$56.47230%4.7340.64.0Fairly Valued (3)favorablelow2yesyesyes
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Averagen = 191.0013.1%23.1%11.2%34.4%$4861.3%2.7%9.8%39222.772.8620.4%on trendline38%24.82%12.95%44.58%16.95%15.91%7.02%2.070.933.1%35%A+$226.58$4,989.30$5,429.97$67.68422%14.1526.00/192/193.5Fairly Valued (3)neutrallow27/197/1912/19