UK empirical.xls

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U
1	NOTES: Columns C - G are taken from the ONS website. They are quarterly averages of the monthly series in order to match in frequency with the available labor market flow data.
2	Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentunemploymentandeconomicinactivityforpeopleaged16andoverandagedfrom16to64seasonallyadjusteda02sa
3	Columns H - P are taken from the ONS website. Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/labourmarketflows/may2017
4	Columns Q - T are implied values from columns C - P
5	All data are seasonally adjusted and cover the 16-64 age group.
6
7		Levels					Flows									Transition Probabilities				Empirical Values (from columns C - G)
8	Date	POP	LF	E	U	NP	EtoE	EtoU	EtoNP	UtoU	UtoE	UtoNP	NPtoNP	NPtoE	NPtoU	f-bar	s-bar	d-bar	e-bar	Participation Rate	Unemployment rate
9	2001Q3	37583135.33	28745699.03	27268129.78	1477569.249	8837436.302	26,376	364	543	792	417	262	7,874	498	325	0.2825080372	0.01333512896	0.1770634139	0.03678936381	0.7648563319	0.05140140261
10	2001Q4	37647080	28816060.78	27314161.81	1501898.968	8831019.218	26,375	355	570	799	442	265	7,911	463	326	0.2940899285	0.01299207989	0.1767389797	0.03688568847	0.765426184	0.05212020405
11	2002Q1	37710627.33	28842928.38	27339099.74	1503828.646	8867698.952	26,424	354	521	774	480	258	7,880	540	367	0.3189938396	0.01293961802	0.171721088	0.04137453525	0.7648488084	0.05213855632
12	2002Q2	37774943.33	28949215.02	27433133.53	1516081.49	8825728.317	26,526	375	533	790	455	255	7,874	489	347	0.300111318	0.01366819189	0.1680770557	0.03928958681	0.76636025	0.05237038342
13	2002Q3	37837090.67	29030769.52	27492526.3	1538243.212	8806321.151	26,618	342	517	774	472	293	7,832	488	374	0.3065543453	0.01244149774	0.190695084	0.04245045209	0.7672569165	0.05298664961
14	2002Q4	37899057.33	29092570.55	27591393.73	1501176.828	8806486.779	26,631	364	573	778	438	289	7,848	471	347	0.2917013573	0.01318921063	0.1924620229	0.03939257911	0.7676330917	0.05160000646
15	2003Q1	37960922	29100678.15	27591511.59	1509166.555	8860243.852	26,709	318	530	769	473	280	7,911	503	348	0.3137440078	0.01152432759	0.1852626832	0.03928721792	0.7665956625	0.05186018508
16	2003Q2	38022887	29173315.46	27698960.26	1474355.198	8849571.539	26,781	340	558	758	420	265	7,903	511	350	0.2846451099	0.01226068964	0.1797030579	0.03951175571	0.7672567173	0.05053780054
17	2003Q3	38092939.33	29207664.44	27725824.48	1481839.959	8885274.898	26,795	316	596	763	445	274	7,939	503	345	0.3004155228	0.01139398925	0.1852378878	0.03877692687	0.7667474589	0.05073462694
18	2003Q4	38167120.67	29245896.48	27806687.45	1439209.026	8921224.19	26,910	315	533	728	453	262	7,938	541	357	0.3150537181	0.01133676694	0.1823797603	0.04002529479	0.7662589152	0.04921063122
19	2004Q1	38241125	29344274.86	27920721.74	1423553.121	8896850.139	26,954	346	611	715	438	272	7,929	506	348	0.3075634748	0.01239973464	0.1908163114	0.03909387204	0.7673486295	0.0485121247
20	2004Q2	38315222	29345145.32	27924506.05	1420639.279	8970076.675	27,006	293	607	696	429	288	7,986	533	365	0.3020402654	0.01050840013	0.2027998095	0.0406591554	0.7658873887	0.04841139015
21	2004Q3	38408844.67	29372465.23	27981159.49	1391305.739	9036379.436	27,107	342	551	699	425	268	8,021	589	350	0.3058019821	0.0122233307	0.1928711879	0.03872683924	0.7647318081	0.04736768697
22	2004Q4	38512463.33	29536374.03	28132243.48	1404130.546	8976089.304	27,230	334	534	673	436	301	7,985	549	373	0.3101673667	0.011882965	0.21437354	0.04153044533	0.7669302733	0.04753902915
23	2005Q1	38616506.33	29626900.44	28212426.2	1414474.234	8989605.898	27,279	340	579	722	419	265	8,074	518	348	0.2960235108	0.01205849486	0.1874832785	0.0387024817	0.7672082031	0.04774290302
24	2005Q2	38720045.33	29656745.56	28235719.44	1421026.112	9063299.778	27,360	315	509	677	453	280	8,088	519	384	0.3186722628	0.0111523385	0.1972075002	0.0423621903	0.7659274492	0.04791578057
25	2005Q3	38818993	29774933.56	28336205.44	1438728.121	9044059.438	27,375	381	575	777	390	269	8,090	513	379	0.2712724318	0.01344526934	0.1869254521	0.04195487349	0.7670197308	0.04832011187
26	2005Q4	38915570.33	29837465.87	28302648.13	1534817.736	9078104.464	27,461	321	476	847	418	280	8,051	558	393	0.2725344169	0.01132640096	0.1824349299	0.04327469349	0.766723078	0.05143927915
27	2006Q1	39011825	30024281.13	28431330.68	1592950.45	8987543.873	27,556	350	525	868	421	302	7,958	512	451	0.2643312737	0.01231769254	0.1897494243	0.05017806299	0.7696200095	0.05305540682
28	2006Q2	39108174	30157564.87	28490173.33	1667391.534	8950609.133	27,558	373	531	890	465	302	7,962	529	378	0.2789580291	0.01307925551	0.1809132225	0.04220827678	0.7711320111	0.05528932928
29	2006Q3	39205493	30247657.56	28570196.4	1677461.155	8957835.442	27,640	346	559	935	446	299	8,024	484	388	0.2661446516	0.01210371181	0.1783215017	0.04330026906	0.7715158067	0.05545755574
30	2006Q4	39303125.67	30252130.7	28571265.42	1680865.277	9050994.971	27,587	344	616	897	441	347	8,040	490	419	0.2626249437	0.01205587698	0.2066568026	0.04624313646	0.7697131	0.05556188071
31	2007Q1	39401051	30257971.88	28570537.81	1687434.063	9143079.123	27,683	321	535	886	464	345	8,111	543	422	0.274895332	0.01122069079	0.2046565327	0.04619872509	0.7679483442	0.05576824745
32	2007Q2	39498673.33	30341056.35	28699649.66	1641406.693	9157616.985	27,742	332	563	866	452	303	8,128	550	411	0.2753005291	0.01155367685	0.1845696909	0.0449035184	0.7681538084	0.05409853481
33	2007Q3	39584029.67	30405704.2	28776771.75	1628932.45	9178325.467	27,876	318	563	818	498	318	8,097	544	438	0.305567293	0.01105468742	0.1951268217	0.04768405163	0.7681305935	0.0535732519
34	2007Q4	39662254	30518924.04	28909922.76	1609001.283	9143329.959	27,966	331	590	852	471	283	8,080	571	407	0.2927426862	0.01143659989	0.1758425093	0.04453940184	0.7694702384	0.05272142886
35	2008Q1	39740988.33	30628898.82	29005677.76	1623221.065	9112089.51	28,061	342	556	862	436	313	8,112	510	450	0.2686481653	0.01179744831	0.1926554061	0.04933741927	0.7707130625	0.05299638993
36	2008Q2	39819712	30692498.16	29030445.33	1662052.823	9127213.843	27,987	422	561	893	401	356	8,059	508	467	0.2412886862	0.01452780335	0.2140104961	0.05121860233	0.770786543	0.05415176095
37	2008Q3	39880382.33	30700560.2	28882923.96	1817636.247	9179822.131	27,820	465	580	1,006	483	335	8,017	521	486	0.2656381021	0.01609505222	0.1840651922	0.05296542308	0.7698160952	0.05920531207
38	2008Q4	39932050.67	30822099.07	28838853.19	1983245.887	9109951.594	27,739	536	476	1,191	439	351	8,113	457	453	0.2211793655	0.01859759968	0.1769002845	0.04972980263	0.7718636674	0.06434493259
39	2009Q1	39983382.33	30849635.44	28648223.94	2201411.497	9133746.892	27,487	551	551	1,382	462	365	8,185	369	483	0.2098550886	0.019233478	0.1657605077	0.05289826435	0.7715614248	0.0713594007
40	2009Q2	40034616.67	30777959.35	28358394.5	2419564.846	9256657.317	27,329	434	520	1,465	544	410	8,225	441	508	0.2246382842	0.01531647755	0.1692582131	0.05492208899	0.7687836655	0.0786135565
41	2009Q3	40093654	30773897.04	28316414.55	2457482.49	9319756.956	27,402	416	469	1,492	514	445	8,339	412	502	0.2090081031	0.0146765776	0.1812754868	0.0538352022	0.7675503222	0.07985607042
42	2009Q4	40156233.67	30738901	28316449.41	2422451.584	9417332.669	27,286	416	568	1,529	485	408	8,342	450	541	0.2000358867	0.0146967149	0.168249417	0.05739436886	0.7654826708	0.07880735828
43	2010Q1	40218796	30731931.52	28245496.37	2486435.143	9486864.484	27,260	418	500	1,517	584	392	8,371	497	517	0.234935212	0.01478654835	0.15760425	0.05452975811	0.7641186354	0.08090721996
44	2010Q2	40281661.33	30864969.76	28390768.13	2474201.64	9416691.569	27,433	408	460	1,472	591	404	8,346	488	529	0.2387173369	0.01437135027	0.1631847022	0.05619290931	0.7662288184	0.08016212744
45	2010Q3	40345345	30955868.98	28488429.58	2467439.401	9389476.022	27,449	424	601	1,491	537	426	8,300	449	554	0.2177657297	0.0148718146	0.1727691629	0.05900150989	0.7672723824	0.07970829061
46	2010Q4	40409079	30936426.67	28447652.75	2488773.922	9472652.326	27,498	394	474	1,498	555	426	8,423	471	563	0.2231324662	0.01384645738	0.1713304245	0.0594505612	0.7655810882	0.08044800869
47	2011Q1	40473222	31010409.36	28549032.9	2461376.46	9462812.636	27,544	464	473	1,501	536	422	8,400	435	536	0.2176904927	0.01624688098	0.1716343521	0.05665599136	0.7661957173	0.07937258843
48	2011Q2	40537139.33	31048447.46	28535717.06	2512730.393	9488691.876	27,505	413	547	1,651	515	345	8,459	381	534	0.2048448318	0.01448014317	0.1373755105	0.05629499219	0.7659259624	0.08092934103
49	2011Q3	40548380.67	31064472.88	28439719.41	2624753.478	9483907.782	27,452	434	489	1,741	548	356	8,422	457	481	0.2088782769	0.01525817532	0.1358130922	0.05071372743	0.7661088402	0.08449373944
50	2011Q4	40533090.67	31115317.24	28454231.62	2661085.619	9417773.424	27,501	402	494	1,671	610	386	8,340	423	505	0.2292892985	0.01412565009	0.1450509486	0.05362510404	0.7676522252	0.08552333238
51	2012Q1	40517411.33	31153078.51	28543542.4	2609536.117	9364332.82	27,607	380	484	1,605	606	393	8,198	495	561	0.2323033963	0.01330183783	0.1506911173	0.05987092501	0.7688812658	0.08376495171
52	2012Q2	40501722.33	31277398.36	28703897.14	2573501.22	9224323.973	27,753	393	486	1,557	594	405	8,116	450	521	0.2307165636	0.01369360576	0.1572088222	0.05649015376	0.7722485998	0.08227990033
53	2012Q3	40502451.33	31325979.38	28805635.28	2520344.097	9176471.954	27,936	416	448	1,570	587	372	8,070	421	525	0.2327963251	0.01444820833	0.1476660048	0.05717694032	0.7734341589	0.08045539667
54	2012Q4	40510926.67	31417564.72	28904707.28	2512857.442	9093361.949	27,778	393	492	1,574	609	365	8,116	445	538	0.2423601335	0.01358801535	0.1451636767	0.05921338781	0.7755331043	0.07998256594
55	2013Q1	40519973.33	31380897.47	28846762.78	2534134.685	9139075.868	27,884	397	464	1,559	550	406	8,113	446	522	0.2169932125	0.01376851543	0.1603927577	0.05713540105	0.7744550375	0.08075405388
56	2013Q2	40528795.33	31393313.96	28911136.65	2482177.309	9135481.374	27,996	396	464	1,538	600	350	8,041	467	490	0.2418049332	0.01369457211	0.1409096903	0.05365891489	0.7745928222	0.07906706861
57	2013Q3	40551792	31504064.61	29065912.55	2438152.054	9047727.393	28,115	366	510	1,453	583	418	7,985	510	501	0.2391020453	0.0125771299	0.1714734158	0.05537167499	0.7768846469	0.07739166626
58	2013Q4	40582195.67	31554006.3	29236988.61	2317017.69	9028189.367	28,358	336	466	1,353	558	407	7,966	479	473	0.2409285187	0.01149792415	0.1755480809	0.05239535367	0.7775332453	0.07343022207
59	2014Q1	40612437.33	31630255.55	29445678.72	2184576.828	8982181.787	28,500	350	526	1,225	566	387	7,926	519	444	0.2591038321	0.01190046087	0.1773119695	0.04947352615	0.7788317477	0.06906605053
60	2014Q2	40642576	31637456.16	29602073.57	2035382.598	9005119.836	28,657	337	520	1,149	499	382	7,997	523	440	0.2452140378	0.01137194224	0.1877566815	0.04886450504	0.7784313712	0.06433458453
61	2014Q3	40686777.33	31640177.69	29701329.79	1938847.897	9046599.643	28,813	334	522	1,069	513	352	8,059	496	433	0.2648448134	0.01124218882	0.1813326277	0.04784195738	0.777652588	0.06127803441
62	2014Q4	40737254.67	31670518.82	29805072.04	1865446.781	9066735.847	28,864	336	553	1,019	504	324	7,999	586	433	0.270205686	0.01126236012	0.1737462079	0.04775390342	0.777433803	0.05890168051
63	2015Q1	40788316.33	31762471.71	29950847.62	1811624.084	9025844.626	29,024	345	556	1,001	460	348	7,952	497	474	0.2538585352	0.01153493844	0.1920520686	0.05248164798	0.7787149498	0.05703662172
64	2015Q2	40838882.67	31788450.32	29971812.88	1816637.445	9050432.346	29,058	276	553	967	533	326	7,944	552	466	0.2932895977	0.009201267378	0.1794721413	0.05149447426	0.7783868765	0.05714771959
65	2015Q3	40882627.33	31877337.03	30153413.34	1723923.693	9005290.301	29,219	352	537	879	510	338	7,871	596	419	0.2958561552	0.01167146282	0.1961108048	0.04653688031	0.7797281905	0.05407991551
66	2015Q4	40922887.33	31990160.92	30321158.26	1669002.657	8932726.415	29,396	356	540	866	461	335	7,848	537	436	0.2762380525	0.01173391525	0.2007878984	0.04878467592	0.7817180801	0.05217237453
67	2016Q1	40963186	32048484.88	30378770.24	1669714.641	8914701.118	29,456	312	563	902	471	300	7,871	560	408	0.2817868335	0.0102644097	0.1798524999	0.045758177	0.7823728575	0.05209964362
68	2016Q2	41003175.67	32143554.62	30524263.42	1619291.2	8859621.048	29,591	342	565	844	448	322	7,777	549	387	0.2764468412	0.01121790411	0.1990707124	0.04372408795	0.7839284176	0.0503768553
69	2016Q3	41038340.67	32157622.68	30548733.9	1608888.781	8880717.987	29,630	258	607	867	467	264	7,832	533	439	0.290166748	0.008431413276	0.1641841693	0.04943698116	0.7835994867	0.05003133463
70	2016Q4	41070963.67	32187572.68	30612834.12	1574738.561	8883390.988	29,729	295	561	796	483	300	7,822	552	428	0.306401695	0.009652404677	0.1907431729	0.04818069543	0.7837062928	0.04892380599
71	2017Q1	41103130.67	32248171.67	30717775.12	1530396.55	8854958.998	29,924	263	534	805	439	296	7,781	540	397	0.2867442429	0.008559608753	0.1932147649	0.04482050424	0.7845672859	0.04745684704
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